EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[nishant2200]

It has overwritten the previous version for 2010 and can be found here

I haven't really looked at it in detail yet, but I did notice the numbers for EB5 have increased by +52.7%. Most other categories have fallen slightly.

Spec, on people waiting, in EB categories, for EB2, I see:
India 3,705
China-mainland born 1,053

So does this mean, their current known demand for CP cases for India is 3,705 and China is 1,053, so this should be ideally added to the demand data which next comes up for the Jan VB.

[vizcard]

Not hideous - winged helmet - the symbol of Wolverine Football (Univ of Michigan, one PhD and two Masters from there in my house :-)

I know what it is. I went to Ohio State

[Spectator]

Spec, on people waiting, in EB categories, for EB2, I see:
India 3,705
China-mainland born 1,053

So does this mean, their current known demand for CP cases for India is 3,705 and China is 1,053, so this should be ideally added to the demand data which next comes up for the Jan VB.

I don't think you can really use it with the demand data effectively. The NVC data reflects the number of people mentioned on I-140s received to November 2011. Most of the numbers will relate to the period 2008-2011.

The Demand Data includes Documentarily Qualified CP cases, including some in the NVC data. For EB2, the numbers are quite low anyway and AOS cases completely dwarf them.

In further forward looking projections for EB2, they are accounted for, since apart from NIW, they will likely have come through the PERM process.

Trying to make sense of future numbers on the basis of the NVC Waiting List data is an exercise in futility e.g. If CP for EB2 is 2%, then 3.7k EB2-I CP equates to 185k AOS+CP

Clearly that is not correct. Maybe the CP % is set to rise in the future or it represents multiple I-140 having AOS and CP processing or something else.

I do think it is an interesting document and highlights some interesting points, for instance, the numbers of EB3-P (probably Nurses and Physical Therapists who are ineligible for H1B) waiting for an Immigrant Visa and outside the USCIS I-485 figures.

Good luck if you can make more sense of it.

[imdeng]

Oh... I took your comment literally... sorry about that :-)

I know what it is. I went to Ohio State

[qesehmk]

I know what it is. I went to Ohio State

Oh... I took your comment literally... sorry about that :-)

imdeng he meant it literally How do I know? I went to Michigan State!

[qesehmk]

1) With new i140 amendment, will my EAD be delayed? do they approve the i140 and issue EAD?
2) Im from KS, which service center would they apply.

#1 - No. If at all may be a month or so MAX. There is no reason to be delayed.
#2 - Please google yourself. My guess is Texas.

[soggadu]

Q.... Please check ur PM....

[vizcard]

So getting back to calculations and predictions, does everyone feel comfortable that we will see a two month move ahead in the Jan VB and a stall or retrogression beyond that till august/ sept (assuming hR3012 gets stuck or worse).

[tometukuri]

Thanks imdeng for your input. Someone mentioned 3 months for EAD/AP at TSC, which is not bad at all compared to the waiting we did all these years

Yup it makes a difference in the processing times - and unfortunately Texas is the slower one I believe.

[polapragada]

Breaking News:

Just now one my friend with PD 04-AUG-2007 called USCIS for status on his previously opened SR. He spoke with L2 officer and got response saying that "VISA number done for now. Wait for 90 days"..

I am thinking this might be a jerk on coming up VB of Jan,2012

[pdmay2008]

Breaking News:

Just now one my friend with PD 04-AUG-2007 called USCIS for status on his previously opened SR. He spoke with L2 officer and got response saying that "VISA number done for now. Wait for 90 days"..

I am thinking this might be a jerk on coming up VB of Jan,2012

I think for now CO is collecting the demand and he is not worried about VISA number availability at this point of time. He is just preparing for next spill over season. Hope he does not consider this news to move the dates further in Jan bulletin.

[gchopeful123]

Does this in anyway indicate that they are now doing quarterly spillovers?

Breaking News:

Just now one my friend with PD 04-AUG-2007 called USCIS for status on his previously opened SR. He spoke with L2 officer and got response saying that "VISA number done for now. Wait for 90 days"..

I am thinking this might be a jerk on coming up VB of Jan,2012

[grnwtg]

I guess many of us agreed that 'definetly' there is quarterly spill over now. And coming to quota - they can give full quota of 'india+chinese+quarterly spill over' ( we cannot guestimate it as it is up to CO to decide, after going through his calculations, rules and his mood), so there should not be any surprise for us to hear that quota for this quarter is done.

Looking at the current trend, My Guess would be that GC will become more favorable to India and Chinese because of increasing millionaires and politicians from above said countries as opposed to past where Europeons use to dominate the Rich+Political front.

Does this in anyway indicate that they are now doing quarterly spillovers?

[sreddy]

if "Wait for 90 days" term was used, not guessed (second hand information some times have guesses), it is clear that Quarterly spillover is already in place. I think we do have some other indications before as well indiating may be there are quarterly spillovers.

Here are my thoughts... If you look at last year's movement, 2011 saw about 12 months (may be 11.5 months) movement. Appears that second part 2007, and early 2008 is about same desity, if not more denser, compared to previous year. So we cannot expect movement beyond March 2008 (may be + or - a month). That being said, CO seems be in the mood of building some inventory (based on what he spoke in the meeting last month). One un-solved puzzle is how much inventory does he want to see? Does HR 3012 have any influence on what CO is thinking? In addition, this is election year. So any from Demcratic party are thinking to show some flexibility, that may help get some support from Indian/Chinese community (2007 Fiasco happend about a year before elections)?? So it all depends on what factors are going to influence forward movement. Hard to guess.... just wait for 3 or 4 more days, you will get better picuture of what is on CO's table, and what is in his mind (you will never get a clear picuture however, and will have same type of questions next month as well).

I guess many of us agreed that 'definetly' there is quarterly spill over now. And coming to quota - they can give full quota of 'india+chinese+quarterly spill over' ( we cannot guestimate it as it is up to CO to decide, after going through his calculations, rules and his mood), so there should not be any surprise for us to hear that quota for this quarter is done.

Looking at the current trend, My Guess would be that GC will become more favorable to India and Chinese because of increasing millionaires and politicians from above said countries as opposed to past where Europeons use to dominate the Rich+Political front.

[doctorp]

did anybody who applied in december see the checks cashed yet? i have not

[polapragada]

did anybody who applied in december see the checks cashed yet? i have not

for my applications attornary office cut the checks to USCIS...later I will pay them. So I have no way to track it

[familyguy]

My checks have not been cashed yet. CIS received my application on Dec 1. Wait for another 2 to 3 days.

did anybody who applied in december see the checks cashed yet? i have not

[srd4gc]

hi, can we register on uscis website so we can receive all the updates on our files? can we get updates on both both primary and dependent applications using one A# for primary's I-140 or is it done using receipt #s?

[doctorp]

hi, can we register on uscis website so we can receive all the updates on our files? can we get updates on both both primary and dependent applications using one A# for primary's I-140 or is it done using receipt #s?

you need a receipt number to register, and as you and your spouse will have different receipt numbers, you have to track them seperately

[vizcard]

if "Wait for 90 days" term was used, not guessed (second hand information some times have guesses), it is clear that Quarterly spillover is already in place. I think we do have some other indications before as well indiating may be there are quarterly spillovers.

Here are my thoughts... If you look at last year's movement, 2011 saw about 12 months (may be 11.5 months) movement. Appears that second part 2007, and early 2008 is about same desity, if not more denser, compared to previous year. So we cannot expect movement beyond March 2008 (may be + or - a month). That being said, CO seems be in the mood of building some inventory (based on what he spoke in the meeting last month). One un-solved puzzle is how much inventory does he want to see? Does HR 3012 have any influence on what CO is thinking? In addition, this is election year. So any from Demcratic party are thinking to show some flexibility, that may help get some support from Indian/Chinese community (2007 Fiasco happend about a year before elections)?? So it all depends on what factors are going to influence forward movement. Hard to guess.... just wait for 3 or 4 more days, you will get better picuture of what is on CO's table, and what is in his mind (you will never get a clear picuture however, and will have same type of questions next month as well).

This year is very different from past years simply because there is no demand data to work off. Up until the July 2007 cases were in the hopper, he had visibility and could move dates accordingly. Right now, hes has a "sense" of what's in the pipe. Going by trends and math, he could stop in 12 months which I believe would be June 2008. But is that going to be enough? How can he guarantee that ?

I'm less concerned about the impact of Hr3012 in the short term VBs. Its visibility in to the "business as usual" demand and inventory that's important.

[SaturnRing]

Please don't hold me on this

Our company attorneys sent email asking all of us before PD of Apr 15th to be ready with 485 documentation. And I did call attorney's office and they sounded positive that there will be forward movement this bulletin and a possible stall/retro after that.

They also said *IF* there is movement in 3012 bill in senate then EB2IC will become current for a month before settling down with dates for ROW and EB2 I/C, and that they heard the information from CO office.

Again, everything is word of mouth, so please don't hold me on this , but I would be one happy soul if there is forward movement next month.

[venkimakthal]

Please don't hold me on this

Our company attorneys sent email asking all of us before PD of Apr 15th to be ready with 485 documentation. And I did call attorney's office and they sounded positive that there will be forward movement this bulletin and a possible stall/retro after that.

They also said *IF* there is movement in 3012 bill in senate then EB2IC will become current for a month before settling down with dates for ROW and EB2 I/C, and that they heard the information from CO office.

Again, everything is word of mouth, so please don't hold me on this , but I would be one happy soul if there is forward movement next month.

My attorney told me almost 20days back that they are anticipating my date will become current in Jan 2012 VB and asked for the documents to send, I will send all the documents including medicals and crossing fingers and waiting for the real VB

[venkimakthal]

Hope DD will out by 12/07 and VB out by 11/09

[pdmay2008]

My attorney told me almost 20days back that they are anticipating my date will become current in Jan 2012 VB and asked for the documents to send, I will send all the documents including medicals and crossing fingers and waiting for the real VB

My attorney never tells me anything. My date is exactly 1 month after your PD. Hope we see 2 to 4 months forward movement as Gurus suggested before.

[vizcard]

My attorney never tells me anything. My date is exactly 1 month after your PD. Hope we see 2 to 4 months forward movement as Gurus suggested before.

I would suggest you keep ALL your docs ready. there's a very high probability your PD will get current in the Jan VB.