EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[MorningSun]

My opinion is that you are on the wall. If you are too confused to be either an optimist or a pessimist, you will remain on the wall. If you are a pessimist, you may get it in 2012. If you are an optimist, 2011 is your lucky year.

Thank you.

[qesehmk]

Sun ... take it easy. Read the header of the thread. That should answer you.

I didn't get it. Is this another way of saying I don't know.

Patient: Hey Doctor, am I pregnant.

Doctor: Well Well, my opinion is you are on the wall. If you are too confused to be either an optimist or a pessimist, you will remain on the wall. If you are pessimist, you may not conceive a child in 9 months. If you are an optimist, 2011 is your lucky year.

My fee is 150, please pay on your way out. Come back, if you are still confused in 2012.

[veni001]

Veni, I would encourage you to look at minimum job requirements in the PWD data rather than look at wages. Wages vary substantially all over the country. My PWD did not fit your criteria and it still was EB2. Just saying.

veni I agree here. I personally know many people with 6 figure salaries classified as EB3.

Kd2008 and Q,
I agree that this does not reflect the exact situation but only one angle, unless the PERM tide(especially EBI) turned towards EB2, i don't think there will be sudden increase in the median salary offered, that to in the current economic situation!

[qesehmk]

Veni

That's a very good insight. Makes sense to me. If EB1-I are filing in EB2-I that should increase the median salary of the PERM database.

Kd2008 and Q,
I agree that this does not reflect the exact situation but only one angle, unless the PERM tide(especially EBI) turned towards EB2, i don't think there will be sudden increase in the median salary offered, that to in the current economic situation!

[TeddyKoochu]

Veni

That's a very good insight. Makes sense to me. If EB1-I are filing in EB2-I that should increase the median salary of the PERM database.

Guys there are several sides to this.
- Traditionally also people who apply for EB1 A & B also have been filing a EB2 or EB2 NIW application just in case. For someone who is from the retrogressed countries if the EB1 gets approved its a Jackpot if not delaying EB2 means losing your place in the line. For those from ROW EB1 is faster because of no labor requirement except for NIW case still having a EB2 application adds security. I believe at least 50% people do it. Q you may remember kondur007.

- On another side the salaries in research are not eye poppingly high they are pretty much regular most of these folks value the research and quality of work more than salary.

So while it maybe true that folks from ROW maybe tending to EB2 for safety from the perm data it is not possible to decipher or quantify this but surely this is happening as getting EB1 approvals after the Kazarian memo is tougher.

[veni001]

Veni

That's a very good insight. Makes sense to me. If EB1-I are filing in EB2-I that should increase the median salary of the PERM database.

Q,
Since we saw about 60% decrease in overall EB1 filings, not sure if we can assume at least 50% of the EBI PERMs are for those EB1s now filing in EB2? this will be a big factor when comes to porting calculations?

Guys there are several sides to this.
- Traditionally also people who apply for EB1 A & B also have been filing a EB2 or EB2 NIW application just in case. For someone who is from the retrogressed countries if the EB1 gets approved its a Jackpot if not delaying EB2 means losing your place in the line. For those from ROW EB1 is faster because of no labor requirement except for NIW case still having a EB2 application adds security. I believe at least 50% people do it. Q you may remember kondur007.

- On another side the salaries in research are not eye poppingly high they are pretty much regular most of these folks value the research and quality of work more than salary.

So while it maybe true that folks from ROW maybe tending to EB2 for safety from the perm data it is not possible to decipher or quantify this but surely this is happening as getting EB1 approvals after the Kazarian memo is tougher.

Teddy,
My median salary comparison is only from EBI PERMs, if most of these ERMs from FY2011 are new (otherwise filed in EB1 cases), i don't think we will have very many porting cases from Q1 FY2011 data?

[Spectator]

As there is every likelihood that Cut Off Dates will move into 2007 this FY, I was looking at the likely number of PWMB.

I thought I would share my findings. I thinkthey are roughly in line with Teddy’s thinking, maybe slightly higher.

This is based on PERM approvals and the existing conversion rate to I-485 for 2006 and 2007 respectively. The numbers represent an average of the figures given using DOS Demand and USCIS Inventory figures.

PD 2006

There don’t appear to be many PD 2006 PWMB to come. Very few PERM approvals were after July 2007 and even fewer after September 2008, when EB2-IC had reached June 2006 for 3 months.

PD Jan – July 2007

PERM approvals for India to the end of July2007 were 8.9k. For China the figure was 2.6k.

This translated to around 9.8k and 5.5k EB2I-485 respectively.

Since July 2007, a further 4.5k PERM forIndia with a PD of Jan-July 2007 have been approved. For China, the figure is1.1k.

At the same conversion ratio, this represents a further 5.0k Indian EB2 I-485 and 1.9k Chinese EB2 I-485.

To summarize, for Jan – Jul 2007

--------- China– India –Total

Existing – 5.5 ---9.8 ---- 15.3
PWMB ----- 1.9 ---5.0 ----- 6.9
Total ---- 7.4–- 14.8 ---- 22.2

The breakdown of the PWMB by month is as follows:

Jan --- 1.88%
Feb --- 3.47%
Mar --- 6.01%
Apr -- 14.30%
May -- 17.97%
Jun -- 21.85%
Jul -- 34.53%
Tot - 100.00%

As we might expect, the concentration increases the nearer we approach July 2007, so for early 2007 PD it is not a large factor.

PD Aug – Dec 2007

India has 9.6k PERM approved with a PD of Aug– Dec 2007. China has 2.2k.

At the same conversion ratio, this represents approximately 10.7k Indian EB2 I-485 and 4.1k Chinese EB2I-485.

The breakdown of the PWMB by month is as follows:

Aug -- 19.21%
Sep -- 19.31%
Oct -- 22.13%
Nov -- 20.49%
Dec -- 18.86%
Tot - 100.00%

It appears to be a roughly equal monthly distribution.

Overall, the figures for China and India EB2 for CY 2007 look as follows:

China &India

2007 ----Existing – PWMB --Total
Jan-Jul --- 15.3---- 6.9 --- 22.2
Aug-Dec ---- 0.1--- 14.8 --- 14.9
Total ----- 15.4--- 21.7 --- 37.1

If anywhere close to correct, that is a big number for a single CY year. I don’t think that is anything we didn’t already know. Porting numbers would be in addition, to clear the year.

Of course, the above represents the worst case. In reality, they would probably be slightly lower due to attrition in the system.

What do other people think PWMB / post July2007 numbers are?

[qesehmk]

Overall, the figures for China and India EB2 for CY 2007 look as follows:

China & India

2007 ---- Existing – PWMB --Total
Jan-Jul --- 15.3 ---- 6.9 --- 22.2
Aug-Dec ---- 0.1 --- 14.8 --- 14.9
Total ----- 15.4 --- 21.7 --- 37.1

Spec ... good calculations. Better than my old approach where if I remember correctly I had used trackitt to come up with 7% PWMB. And then I had assumed that the 7% applies to each month between Jan-Jul 2007. I had assumed that 2006 doesn't have any PWMB.

Two questions:

1. For Jan-Jul your number almost comes close to 33%. What is your confidence level in that number (at a macro level. i.e. forget distribution by month).
2. Would it make more sense for you to do calculations on all PERMs and then leaving it an open question to figure out how many of those PWMB or EB2 or 3 and India vs ROW etc.

- Traditionally also people who apply for EB1 A & B also have been filing a EB2 or EB2 NIW application just in case. That may be true for some. However wouldnt employers be averse to filing both - especially when EB2 is so difficult given all the perm requirements?

For those from ROW EB1 is faster because of no labor requirement - EB1 doesn't have any labor for all countries. So didnt understand ....

- On another side the salaries in research are not eye poppingly high - True and not true. Typically the salaries would be 20-30K higher. Depending on the industry they could be higher or lower than this range. However one more thing that needs to be considered is that the EB1 salaries we are talking here is a subset of the overall research salaries ... so while overall EB1 salaries may not be that eye poppingly high, the EB1 here could actually be. e.g. even for H1 or EB2 a company has to prove that they are paying equivalent or more money to the candidate BECAUSE there are fewer people who could do this job. Similarly for EB1 (except there is no labor.... but the pay philosophy applies). Think this way.... why would a US company hire somebody and go through filing GC unless the person isn't in top 5% of the similar pool. And if so ... wouldn't you expect teh salary to be at least 10-20% higher?


So while it maybe true that folks from ROW maybe tending to EB2 for safety from the perm data it is not possible to decipher or quantify this but surely this is happening as getting EB1 approvals after the Kazarian memo is tougher. I think this certainly makes sense.

Q,
Since we saw about 60% decrease in overall EB1 filings, not sure if we can assume at least 50% of the EBI PERMs are for those EB1s now filing in EB2?

I think filing another EB application is not that easy and not many employers would be willing to do that. As teddy said its hard to decipher. But 50% sounds quite high especially given that the PERMs are a mix of EB2-3. What I would ask is this - are we seeing unusual jump in EB2-3 PERMs? Now this question itself is silly because even if there is a jump... how do you attribute it to EB1 also filing theirs EB2? The jump could be an economic rebound. Or an underpaid DoL employee fatfingering the perm numbers!! Just kidding!!

[donvar]

[SIZE=3][

This is based on PERM approvals and the existing conversion rate to I-485 for 2006 and 2007 respectively. The numbers represent an average of the figures given using DOS Demand and USCIS Inventory figures.

PD 2006



PD Jan – July 2007

PERM approvals for India to the end of July2007 were 8.9k. For China the figure was 2.6k.

This translated to around 9.8k and 5.5k EB2I-485 respectively.

Since July 2007, a further 4.5k PERM forIndia with a PD of Jan-July 2007 have been approved. For China, the figure is1.1k.

At the same conversion ratio, this represents a further 5.0k Indian EB2 I-485 and 1.9k Chinese EB2 I-485.


Of course, the above represents the worst case.

If I understand correctly, the conversion ratio which you have taken 9.8/8.9 is of 2007 when people might have applied 485 for themselves. Is it okay to take same conversion ratio for PWMB when it is 2011 now and people would have got married ?

I hope it is a stupid question else the case is worse than worst :-)

[Spectator]

If I understand correctly, the conversion ratio which you have taken 9.8/8.9 is of 2007 when people might have applied 485 for themselves. Is it okay to take same conversion ratio for PWMB when it is 2011 now and people would have got married ?

I hope it is a stupid question else the case is worse than worst :-)

Donvar,

That is not stupid at all. In fact, it is a very astute question.

You are correct that I am using PWMB in the sense that the PERM was not approved in time to submit a concurrent I-140/I485 package before the door closed.

I didn't include new filings due to marriage etc, because those people weren't even at the boarding ramp at the time. They are an additional category in my own mind and would have to be added to the total numbers.

I have no idea what number they represent.

[veni001]

As there is every likelihood that Cut Off Dates will move into 2007 this FY, I was looking at the likely number of PWMB.

I thought I would share my findings. I thinkthey are roughly in line with Teddy’s thinking, maybe slightly higher.

This is based on PERM approvals and the existing conversion rate to I-485 for 2006 and 2007 respectively. The numbers represent an average of the figures given using DOS Demand and USCIS Inventory figures.

PD 2006

There don’t appear to be many PD 2006 PWMB to come. Very few PERM approvals were after July 2007 and even fewer after September 2008, when EB2-IC had reached June 2006 for 3 months.
.....................
.....................

Spec,
Looking at PERM certified data and i-485 inventory some how the factor 2.2 for i-485 is not matching!

2006 EBI PERM Data
IND Certified - 22.2k
2005PD - 7.2k
2006PD-15.0K
2007 EBI PERM Data
IND Certified - 24.5k
2006PD - 8.3k
2007PD-16.2K
2008 EBI PERM Data
IND Certified - 16.5k
2007PD - 4.0k
2008PD-12.5K

Total EBI with PD2006 =15+8.3=23.3k
Total EBI(2&3) i485(PD2006) pending=18.5+10.5=29.0k (from 05-27-2010 inventory update)

Assuming 15% denial/rejections this only translate to1.5?(PERM to i485)


2006 EBC PERM Data
CHINA Certified - 6.7k
2005PD - 2.6k
2006PD-4.1K
2007 EBC PERM Data
CHINA Certified - 6.8k
2006PD - 2.1k
2007PD-4.7K
2008 EBC PERM Data
CHINA Certified - 3.3k
2007PD - 1.0k
2008PD- 2.3K

Total EBC with PD2006 =4.1+2.1=6.2k
Total EBC(2&3) i485(PD2006) pending=7.9+1.1=9.0k (from 05-27-2010 inventory update)

Assuming 15% denial/rejections this only translate to1.7?(PERM to i485)

Am I Missing something here?

[Spectator]

Spec ... good calculations. Better than my old approach where if I remember correctly I had used trackitt to come up with 7% PWMB. And then I had assumed that the 7% applies to each month between Jan-Jul 2007. I had assumed that 2006 doesn't have any PWMB.

Two questions:

1. For Jan-Jul your number almost comes close to 33%. What is your confidence level in that number (at a macro level. i.e. forget distribution by month).
2. Would it make more sense for you to do calculations on all PERMs and then leaving it an open question to figure out how many of those PWMB or EB2 or 3 and India vs ROW etc.

Q,

(1) At a macro level, I think the confidence level is quite high. Here is the breakdown - you judge.

PERM approvals for Indian PD of Jan-Jul 2007

FY2007 Oct-Jul - 8,868
FY2007 Aug-Sep - 3,227
FY2008 Oct-Sep - 941
FY2009 Oct-Sep - 307
FY2010 Oct Sep - 54

Total Jan-Jul 07 - 13,397

Jan-Jul 2007 after July 2007 - 4,529 or 33.81%

Some of the later FY approvals could be porting - that can't be ruled out. Before 2010, it just looks like audit/appeal cases finally being adjudicated.

For PDs of Aug-Dec 2007, total approved PERM is 9,624. Of these, the vast majority (7,394 or 76.83%) were approved in FY2008.

I don't think the split of EB2/EB3 will be much different for PWMB in 2007 compared to people who just managed to catch it in time. Therefore, I believe the assumption that X number of approved PERM translates in to Y number of EB2 I-485 remains valid for PDs of 2007. Others may feel differently - I accept that.

Beyond that, it would be dangerous to make that assumption for PDs after 2007.

We should always be aware there is a margin of error in any calculation where assumptions have to be made. I believe the ballpark numbers are correct, but within an error margin.

(2) I have deliberately not taken that approach, since the conversion rate for different Countries/Country Groups are possibly different. Rather, I have looked at China and India separately and individually, because only these Countries are retrogressed in EB2.

I can certainly calculate the numbers for all Countries - I will edit this post when I have done so to show the overall % of PERM approvals that appear to be PWMB.

You can look at either the DOS Demand Data or USCIS Inventory to see how many I-485s in EB2/3 were generated. Remember to account for CP when using USCIS figures. I used both and then averaged the numbers (DOS lower, USCIS higher).

Does that address your questions Q?

I look forward to people's insight. In many ways, I would like some fatal flaw to be exposed, or so that I can refine my methodology.

[anuran]

Edited...This post could be deleted too. Tnx. (Reason: irrelevant)

[Spectator]

Veni,

I can't reconcile the figures you have quoted in your post to Priority Date.

The reason is that you are using the Adjudication Year.

I am using the Year/Month of Receipt of the PERM.

The Receipt Date is the Priority Date.

[veni001]

Veni,

I can't reconcile the figures you have quoted in your post to Priority Date.

The reason is that you are using the Adjudication Year.

I am using the Year/Month of Receipt of the PERM.

The Receipt Date is the Priority Date.

Ok got it,
Thanks Spec,

[veni001]

As there is every likelihood that Cut Off Dates will move into 2007 this FY, I was looking at the likely number of PWMB.

I thought I would share my findings. I thinkthey are roughly in line with Teddy’s thinking, maybe slightly higher.

This is based on PERM approvals and the existing conversion rate to I-485 for 2006 and 2007 respectively. The numbers represent an average of the figures given using DOS Demand and USCIS Inventory figures.

PD 2006

There don’t appear to be many PD 2006 PWMB to come. Very few PERM approvals were after July 2007 and even fewer after September 2008, when EB2-IC had reached June 2006 for 3 months.
.....................
......................

Spec,
I wend back and looked at the PERM data, this time based on receipt number(PD).
I agree there may be only few with 2006 PD missed the boat. But, still PD to i485 factor is not even close?

2006 PERM Certification Data:
Total: 79.7k

INDIA - 22.3k
PD2005 - 8.2k
PD2006 - 14.1k

China - 6.7k
PD2005 - 2.8k
PD2006 - 3.9k

2007 PERM Certification Data:
Total: 85.1k

INDIA- 24.5k
PD2005 - 393
PD2006 - 11.4k
PD2007 -12.7k

China - 6.8k
PD2005 - 186
PD2006 - 3.0k
PD2007-3.6k

2008 PERM Certification Data:
Total: 49.2k

INDIA- 16.5k
PD2005 - 27
PD2006 - 108
PD2007 -8.3k
PD2008-8.0k

China - 3.3k
PD2005 - 8
PD2006 - 39
PD2007-1.9k
PD2008-1.4k

2009 PERM Certification Data:
Total: 29.5k

INDIA- 11.3k
PD2005 - 5
PD2006 - 54
PD2007 -962
PD2008-10.0k
PD2009-8

China - 2.1k
PD2005 - 0
PD2006 - 16
PD2007- 179
PD2008- 1.9k
PD2009- 2

2010 PERM Certification Data:
Total: 70.2k

INDIA- 28.9k
PD2005 - 1
PD2006 - 11
PD2007 - 1.0k
PD2008- 3.7k
PD2009- 15.0k
PD2010- 9.2k

China - 4.0k
PD2005 - 0
PD2006 - 3
PD2007- 198
PD2008- 666
PD2009- 2.2k
PD2010- 1.0k

India PD2006(EB2&3) = 14.1k+11.4k~=25.5k
Total EBI(2&3) i485(PD2006) pending=18.5+10.5=29.0k (from 05-27-2010 inventory update)

Assuming 15% denial/rejections, this will translate to 1.33?(PERM to i485)

China PD2006(EB2&3) = 3.9k+3.6k~=7.5k
Total EBC(2&3) i485(PD2006) pending=7.9+1.1=9.0k (from 05-27-2010 inventory update)
Assuming 15% denial/rejections, this will translate to 1.41?(PERM to i485)

I hope i am not making the same mistake again?

[qesehmk]

Spec

It does answer both my questions ... albeit the second one is a bit open.

As per the 33% .. yes I am convinved its a solid number for Jan-Jul 2007. I am not motivated enough right now to devote much time to this and figure out where my 7% came from. But one possibility is that 7% is the number of people who were already PERM approved yet couldn't for some reason file 485.

Regarding teh second question .... I think 33% would apply to china quite well (or for any other country for that matter since its a function of labor processing delays). The reason 33% would not show up in other countries is because those people already have had their date current and so are already processed. But as of July 2007 33% of ROW as well were PWMB given their PERM status.

However what I was indicating was that may be we should use all PERM data and try not to split into EB2 vs 3 while calculating PWMB. Also I wouldn't worry for now how many 485 each PERM generates. Thats immaterial since if we know 33% of PERMs missed boat then that means we should expect 33% more 485s as dates start moving into 2007. Makes sense?

Q,

(1) At a macro level, I think the confidence level is quite high. Here is the breakdown - you judge.

PERM approvals for Indian PD of Jan-Jul 2007

FY2007 Oct-Jul - 8,868
FY2007 Aug-Sep - 3,227
FY2008 Oct-Sep - 941
FY2009 Oct-Sep - 307
FY2010 Oct Sep - 54

Total Jan-Jul 07 - 13,397

Jan-Jul 2007 after July 2007 - 4,529 or 33.81%

Some of the later FY approvals could be porting - that can't be ruled out. Before 2010, it just looks like audit/appeal cases finally being adjudicated.

For PDs of Aug-Dec 2007, total approved PERM is 9,624. Of these, the vast majority (7,394 or 76.83%) were approved in FY2008.

I don't think the split of EB2/EB3 will be much different for PWMB in 2007 compared to people who just managed to catch it in time. Therefore, I believe the assumption that X number of approved PERM translates in to Y number of EB2 I-485 remains valid for PDs of 2007. Others may feel differently - I accept that.

Beyond that, it would be dangerous to make that assumption for PDs after 2007.

We should always be aware there is a margin of error in any calculation where assumptions have to be made. I believe the ballpark numbers are correct, but within an error margin.

(2) I have deliberately not taken that approach, since the conversion rate for different Countries/Country Groups are possibly different. Rather, I have looked at China and India separately and individually, because only these Countries are retrogressed in EB2.

I can certainly calculate the numbers for all Countries - I will edit this post when I have done so to show the overall % of PERM approvals that appear to be PWMB.

You can look at either the DOS Demand Data or USCIS Inventory to see how many I-485s in EB2/3 were generated. Remember to account for CP when using USCIS figures. I used both and then averaged the numbers (DOS lower, USCIS higher).

Does that address your questions Q?

I look forward to people's insight. In many ways, I would like some fatal flaw to be exposed, or so that I can refine my methodology.

[Spectator]

Spec

It does answer both my questions ... albeit the second one is a bit open.

As per the 33% .. yes I am convinved its a solid number for Jan-Jul 2007. I am not motivated enough right now to devote much time to this and figure out where my 7% came from. But one possibility is that 7% is the number of people who were already PERM approved yet couldn't for some reason file 485.

Regarding teh second question .... I think 33% would apply to china quite well (or for any other country for that matter since its a function of labor processing delays). The reason 33% would not show up in other countries is because those people already have had their date current and so are already processed. But as of July 2007 33% of ROW as well were PWMB given their PERM status.

However what I was indicating was that may be we should use all PERM data and try not to split into EB2 vs 3 while calculating PWMB. Also I wouldn't worry for now how many 485 each PERM generates. Thats immaterial since if we know 33% of PERMs missed boat then that means we should expect 33% more 485s as dates start moving into 2007. Makes sense?

Q,

Makes sense.

I tried to show what the I-485 effect might be so that people understood the implications of the figures. Many people understand I-485 numbers better than PERM or are unsure what factor to use, so I gave one scenario.

In truth, we almost certainly won't see those numbers (whatever they are) this year, but they will be a factor in how far FY2012 SOFAD takes the Cut Off Dates next year. It also illustrates the true impact of July 2007 being Current.

I certainly don't want to be prescriptive about one particular methodology.

[gcwait2007]

Q, Spec and Others,

I lost myself in the plethora of info and data provided by every one and unable to convert them to knowledge to attain wisdom.

I feel that you may be knowledgeable now to advise wisdom to every one.

Please advise whether you plan to revise your predictions?

Thanks
gcw07

Quote of the day: Too much Info is crap; Info becomes Data when some meaningful assimilation is made out of info; Data becomes Knowledge when you are able to analyze; Knowledge becomes Wisdom when you are able to make decisions based on the knowledge.

[veni001]

Spec

It does answer both my questions ... albeit the second one is a bit open.

As per the 33% .. yes I am convinved its a solid number for Jan-Jul 2007. I am not motivated enough right now to devote much time to this and figure out where my 7% came from. But one possibility is that 7% is the number of people who were already PERM approved yet couldn't for some reason file 485.

Regarding teh second question .... I think 33% would apply to china quite well (or for any other country for that matter since its a function of labor processing delays). The reason 33% would not show up in other countries is because those people already have had their date current and so are already processed. But as of July 2007 33% of ROW as well were PWMB given their PERM status.

However what I was indicating was that may be we should use all PERM data and try not to split into EB2 vs 3 while calculating PWMB. Also I wouldn't worry for now how many 485 each PERM generates. Thats immaterial since if we know 33% of PERMs missed boat then that means we should expect 33% more 485s as dates start moving into 2007. Makes sense?

Q,

Makes sense.

I tried to show what the I-485 effect might be so that people understood the implications of the figures. Many people understand I-485 numbers better than PERM or are unsure what factor to use, so I gave one scenario.

In truth, we almost certainly won't see those numbers (whatever they are) this year, but they will be a factor in how far FY2012 SOFAD takes the Cut Off Dates next year. It also illustrates the true impact of July 2007 being Current.

I certainly don't want to be prescriptive about one particular methodology.

Q & Spec,
Here is the PWMB for EBI-2006&2007 - from FY2007-2010 PERM Disclosure data.

EBI (2&3) PD2006 approvals from JULY 2007 to Sept 2010
FY 2007= 83
FY2008= 108
FY2009= 54
FY2010=11
Total= 256 only

EBI (2&3) PD2007 PERM approvals after JULY 2007 are as follows

------------Approved in FY (after July 2007)-----------
------------2007---2008----- 2009---Total-----%------
Jan 2007---30------ 22------- 9-------61------- 0.46%
Feb 2007---52-------45--------20------117-------0.89%
Mar 2007---119-----46--------14------179-------1.36%
Apr 2007----155-----79--------36------270-------2.05%
May2007----369----110-------38------517-------3.93%
Jun2007---493-----283-------41------817-------6.21%
Jul 2007----441----469-------141-----1,051----7.99%
Aug 2007---561----939-------220-----1,720----13.07%
Sept2007--434----1,606-----245-----2,285----17.37%
Oct 2007---793----1,686-----138-----2,617----19.89%
Nov2007---328----1,557-----30------ 1,609----14.55%
Dec 2007-- 76------1,503-----30------ 1,609----12.23%
Total-----3,851--8,345-----962----13,158---100%

Looking at the data there are only 14.9 %(1.9k) of EBI (2&3) with PD before JULY 2007 are approved after July 2007, you do the split between EB2&3, apply the factors for i140&i485 to get the PWMB numbers.

50% of the 2007 PWMB for IND are in the months of Aug-Sept-Oct of 2007.

Bottom line is, there are about 13.3k EBI (2&3) PERM applications got certified after July 2007 with PD until Sept 2007, this number include porting (at that time). I assume EBC situation will be proportional and USCIS may not see any PWMB impact until EB2I&C PD is moved into June 2007.

Based on the processing time PWMB cases will not get a number from FY 2011, USCIS may have to move dates at least to JULY 2007 to fully utilize all SOFAD numbers this year, but based on PWMB applications, they have to move dates back to APRIL 2007 in OCTOBER2011!

Let me know what your thoughts/predictions/updates!

[Spectator]

Veni,

I agree with your PD 2006 figure of 256.

For 2007, I am not sure why you ended at Sept 2007, nor why Oct-Dec 2006 are included. The figures seem to represent something else.

Here is my table for Jan-Dec 2007 PD, including approvals in FY2010 as well. As with yours, FY2007 approvals are for post July 2007.

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010 -- Total -- % 2007 - % Jan-Jul
Jan-07 --- 46 ------ 22 ------ 9 ------ 1 ----- 78 --- 0.55% ---- 1.72%
Feb-07 -- 100 ------ 34 ----- 17 ------ 5 ---- 156 --- 1.10% ---- 3.44%
Mar-07 -- 210 ------ 45 ----- 15 ------ 3 ---- 273 --- 1.93% ---- 6.03%
Apr-07 -- 559 ------ 56 ----- 23 ------ 2 ---- 640 --- 4.52% --- 14.13%
May-07 -- 660 ----- 118 ----- 42 ------ 7 ---- 827 --- 5.84% --- 18.26%
Jun-07 -- 682 ----- 244 ----- 53 ----- 12 ---- 991 --- 7.00% --- 21.88%
Jul-07 -- 970 ----- 422 ---- 148 ----- 24 -- 1,564 -- 11.05% --- 34.53%
Aug-07 -- 548 ----- 951 ---- 215 ----- 70 -- 1,784 -- 12.61%
Sep-07 --- 76 --- 1,459 ---- 244 ----- 86 -- 1,865 -- 13.18%
Oct-07 ---- 0 --- 1,789 ---- 136 ---- 244 -- 2,169 -- 15.33%
Nov-07 ---- 0 --- 1,584 ----- 31 ---- 323 -- 1,938 -- 13.69%
Dec-07 ---- 0 --- 1,611 ----- 29 ---- 228 -- 1,868 -- 13.20%
Total - 3,851 --- 8,335 ---- 962 -- 1,005 - 14,153 - 100.00% -- 100.00%

Until the end of the current backlog, there are very few PWMB before April 2007 although they gradually increase. April,May and June are at a higher increasing level, but the largest concentration is in July.

June and July account for over 56% of PWMB and May-July account for virtually 75% of PWMB.

Past the current backlog, demand continues at or slightly above the July PWMB level.

PWMB for Jan-July 2007 only represents slightly more than 30% of people waiting to file in CY2007. The biggest concentration is in the Aug-Dec 2007 period.

It seems inevitable that if DOS have to push the Cut Off Dates forward to capture enough Porting and CP cases to use available SOFAD, then the dates will likely retrogress when the true demand becomes apparent.

I agree that it is now very difficult to see "normal" additions ready for adjudication if USCIS does not dramatically and unexpectedly increase processing efficiency. The flip side of that happening is that more EB2-ROW would probably be approved as well.

[veni001]

Veni,

I agree with your PD 2006 figure of 256.

For 2007, I am not sure why you ended at Sept 2007, nor why Oct-Dec 2006 are included. The figures seem to represent something else.

Here is my table for Jan-Dec 2007 PD, including approvals in FY2010 as well. As with yours, FY2007 approvals are for post July 2007.

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010 -- Total -- % 2007 - % Jan-Jul
Jan-07 --- 46 ------ 22 ------ 9 ------ 1 ----- 78 --- 0.55% ---- 1.72%
Feb-07 -- 100 ------ 34 ----- 17 ------ 5 ---- 156 --- 1.10% ---- 3.44%
Mar-07 -- 210 ------ 45 ----- 15 ------ 3 ---- 273 --- 1.93% ---- 6.03%
Apr-07 -- 559 ------ 56 ----- 23 ------ 2 ---- 640 --- 4.52% --- 14.13%
May-07 -- 660 ----- 118 ----- 42 ------ 7 ---- 827 --- 5.84% --- 18.26%
Jun-07 -- 682 ----- 244 ----- 53 ----- 12 ---- 991 --- 7.00% --- 21.88%
Jul-07 -- 970 ----- 422 ---- 148 ----- 24 -- 1,564 -- 11.05% --- 34.53%
Aug-07 -- 548 ----- 951 ---- 215 ----- 70 -- 1,784 -- 12.61%
Sep-07 --- 76 --- 1,459 ---- 244 ----- 86 -- 1,865 -- 13.18%
Oct-07 ---- 0 --- 1,789 ---- 136 ---- 244 -- 2,169 -- 15.33%
Nov-07 ---- 0 --- 1,584 ----- 31 ---- 323 -- 1,938 -- 13.69%
Dec-07 ---- 0 --- 1,611 ----- 29 ---- 228 -- 1,868 -- 13.20%
Total - 3,851 --- 8,335 ---- 962 -- 1,005 - 14,153 - 100.00% -- 100.00%

Until the end of the current backlog, there are very few PWMB before April 2007 although they gradually increase. April,May and June are at a higher increasing level, but the largest concentration is in July.

June and July account for over 56% of PWMB and May-July account for virtually 75% of PWMB.

Past the current backlog, demand continues at or slightly above the July PWMB level.

PWMB for Jan-July 2007 only represents slightly more than 30% of people waiting to file in CY2007. The biggest concentration is in the Aug-Dec 2007 period.

It seems inevitable that if DOS have to push the Cut Off Dates forward to capture enough Porting and CP cases to use available SOFAD, then the dates will likely retrogress when the true demand becomes apparent.

We are on the same page, great.

I agree that it is now very difficult to see "normal" additions ready for adjudication if USCIS does not dramatically and unexpectedly increase processing efficiency. The flip side of that happening is that more EB2-ROW would probably be approved as well.

Spec,
Thanks, i forgot to include PD2007 approvals from FY 2010, which i included below

-----------EBI(2&3) PERM Certifications (after July 2007)-------
------------2007----2008----2009---2010------Total------%------
Jan 2007---30------ 22 ------- 9-------1----------62---------0.44%
Feb 2007--- 52-------45--------20------5---------122--------0.86%
Mar 2007--- 119-----46--------14-------3---------182--------1.29%
Apr 2007----155-----79--------36-------3---------273- -------1.93%
May 2007----369----110------- 38-------6---------523--------3.69%
Jun 2007---493-----283-------41------ 12---------829-------5.85%
Jul 2007----441----469------- 141-----17--------1,068------7.54%
Aug 2007---561----939------- 220-----52---------1,772---- 12.51%
Sept2007--434----1,606----- 245-----88---------2,373---- 16.75%
Oct 2007--- 793----1,686----- 138----220--------2,837----16.75%
Nov 2007--- 328----1,557----- 30------291-------2,206-----15.58%
Dec 2007-- 76------1,503-----30------307--------1,916----13.58%
Total----3,851----8,345-----962---1,005-----14,163----100%

Sorry, table is not that great, i have hard time with it.

Also there are 25 EBI(2&3) PD 2007 certifications from Q1FY2011.

[qesehmk]

GCW

What it boils down to is - Spec's calculations show that PWMB might be 33% as opposed to 7% I had assumed. . The difference comes from teh fact that the 7% only relates to people who already had perm approved. The rest 26% were approved post Jul 2007.

So between Jan-Jul 2007 instead of 1.5K per month on average, the number is really 2K. So as the dates move ahead these extra 500 per month people will start filing.

For those not concerned with details ... essentially this is going to add 3.5K in PWMB (or about 2 months impact to our calculations). Header updated accordingly.

Q, Spec and Others,

I lost myself in the plethora of info and data provided by every one and unable to convert them to knowledge to attain wisdom.

I feel that you may be knowledgeable now to advise wisdom to every one.

Please advise whether you plan to revise your predictions?

Thanks
gcw07

Quote of the day: Too much Info is crap; Info becomes Data when some meaningful assimilation is made out of info; Data becomes Knowledge when you are able to analyze; Knowledge becomes Wisdom when you are able to make decisions based on the knowledge.

[anuran]

That is some excellent data mining work. I am guessing it adds more "headwind" for those with PD in 2007 and beyond. I am also wondering how many more hidden ghosts are there and will appear as time progresses. Thanks again for that excellent and, I suppose, strenuous work.

[veni001]

That is some excellent data mining work. I am guessing it adds more "headwind" for those with PD in 2007 and beyond. I am also wondering how many more hidden ghosts are there and will appear as time progresses. Thanks again for that excellent and, I suppose, strenuous work.

anuran,
That's right, about 17.4k EBI&C PERM certifications after JULY 2007 with PD in 2007, we are talking about an additional 20k(just in FY 2007) EB2(I&C) PWMB cases awaiting to file i485, in addition to porting numbers.