EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[shaumack]

That is correct as Veni said.

A quick calculation of receipts shows ~80K receipts which are nothing but EB1+EB2ROW+visible portings (3K). Assuming EB1 EB2ROW backlog remained same from Oct 2010 to Oct 2011, the MAX net SOFAD comes to about

140 - (80K+EB4+EB5) = 140 -(80+ ~11 + ~3) = 46K.

This by itself was sufficient to clear the entire EB2IC backlog. But clearly that didn't happen in 2011. So we should've expected to see EB1+EB2ROW backlog in Oct 2011 to be much lower compared to Oct 2010 inventory and/OR visa wastage. There is hardly any wastage since 123K in total were allocated in 485 and probably 17K in CP. So where is this 46K?

Possibility is that the 270K allocated to FB category is 44K more than that categories limit. So again .... visas might have been allocated to FB from EB under the pretext that certain countries have less than 7% demand when seen across categories. Just a thought...

We will know better when DHS data by country is published end of December.

I think in your calculations above you need to consider USCIS Approvals only which are 123K and not 140K

So, 123K - (80K+EB4+EB5) = 123 -(80+ ~11 + ~3) = 29K. Right in line with what was expected for SOFAD.

Other 17K is CP and they will be there regardless if we assume nothing is used by EB2I . Most of these are usually used by EB3-C-P-ROW and EB2-ROW; and make big chunk for CP cases.

[qesehmk]

Very good thinking. I am not very sure. But that actually makes a lot sense. Question is how would you think about 270K family approvals vs 226K quota.

I think in your calculations above you need to consider USCIS Approvals only which are 123K and not 140K

So, 123K - (80K+EB4+EB5) = 123 -(80+ ~11 + ~3) = 29K. Right in line with what was expected for SOFAD.

Other 17K is CP and they will be there regardless if we assume nothing is used by EB2I . Most of these are usually used by EB3-C-P-ROW and EB2-ROW; and make big chunk for CP cases.

[shaumack]

Very good thinking. I am not very sure. But that actually makes a lot sense. Question is how would you think about 270K family approvals vs 226K quota.

Q as per USCIS, it seems like everyone has to go through I-130 and I-485 regardless if you are immediate relative or not. I-485 is only for those who are in US & I-130 is analogus to I-140 as an immigrant petition that every one will file. So those additional numbers can be from immediate relatives not counted towards quota. 44K is a big number to over-allocate. That's my theory so far and we will know more from DHS data that will be released later in the month.

[devi_pd]

I think the 80K receipts do not include EB3, EB4 or EB5. All countries in EB3 are backlogged so there will not be any new I-485 receipts. I expect EB4 and EB5 applicants to go for CP because they can come to the US only on a visitor visa prior to applying for I-485. This means we have 80K receipts from EB1 and EB2ROW which is pretty scary.

[Spectator]

Very good thinking. I am not very sure. But that actually makes a lot sense. Question is how would you think about 270K family approvals vs 226K quota.

Q,

If you think about it, the I-485 Family Adjustment figures in the USCIS Report are just plain odd and must represent something different.

Very few FB cases are dealt with by USCIS via I-485. In FY2010 they amounted to 26,084 cases or 11.5% of all FB cases approved under the allocation of 226k. The majority of FB cases are dealt with by DOS through Consular Processing and would not appear in the USCIS report.

I don't know what the answer is, but I would not take the figures at face value and conclude that 270k FB I-485 approvals took place in FY2011 (at least not in the sense we mean). It doesn't pass the reasonableness test.

PS Looking at the DHS figures for FY2010

----------------------------------------- Total ---- AOS ------ CP
Immediate relatives of U.S. citizens -- 476,414 -- 252,842 -- 223,572

so Immediate Relative AOS and Numerically Limited FB AOS would have totalled 279,121 in FY2010.

The figure of 270,170 for FY2011 might then make more sense, especially as IR still have to submit an I-485 and have it approved to adjust status within the USA.

[bieber]

Visa bulletin page is updated with Jan 2012 (Coming Soon)

[vizcard]

Visa bulletin page is updated with Jan 2012 (Coming Soon)

It'll probably be 8th or 9th. Worst case 12th.

[vchirakala]

Is that a good sign or bad sign :-(

[bieber]

It'll probably be 8th or 9th. Worst case 12th.

yes, may be 8/9

vchirakala, it's no sign, happened same in November (for December bulletin)

[nishant2200]

bieber, January marks the beginning of a new Quarter. The Q1 QSP business I believe by the time Jan VB is decided, would be completely dealt with by CO.

In Demand data, CO indicates that the demand data does not reflect the quantum of new applicants who constantly become eligible for categories to whom cut off date is not applying. We are seeing a surge of approvals in these people we all agree (EB1, EB2 ROW approvals, especially EB1).

I don't think that the demand data hard numbers are the only data point which CO would use to justify a VB. And I said at least two months especially looking at HR 3012 approved in House, I did not say only two months. I do believe in giving some weight to the NVC fee bills too, and hence further bolsters. If DD remains low, it definitely works to advantage as a positive point, but just because its low, CO would move a lot, that we cannot take for granted.

Nishanth,

If there is going to be movement in next bulletin, isn't it supposed to be longer than 2 months, DOS/CIS might have received enough applications to be used in this fy but presently the demand data for next month will not have any of that demand, so the movement will be solely aimed to get demand from CP cases and in that case 2 months doesn't make much sense.

Remember, after September bulletin, the consensus on our forum was PDs will end up in 2007 by sept2012, that may still be the case but my point is the movement in next one or two bulletins is not dependent upon 'number of receipts', I think it depends on the real demand

[nishant2200]

thanks Deb. Work has been very heavy this month, murphy's law, when I needed time most to focus on my 485 thing, work became exponentially higher. I ran around, did everything, submitted it, and lawyer has overnighted it on 11/30, so it must have reached today 12/1.

fingers crossed! or as sogaddu would say, legs crossed!

Per lawyer, 10 business days around to be expected before we get receipts. In between that checks should be encashed.

I asked him about his feelings about further date movement or retrogression, and he had no input on that. He did say though that when current, should not lose the opportunity to file, as you never know when they change dates.

Ya I hope QBlog is ready to file for I485 on 1st Dec. Congratulations and best of luck for all those becoming current tomorrow. Special wishes for one of our dearest Gurus Nishant2200. Nishant, I hope you get the GC soon and continue to participate actively in this forum. Your posts have been insightful,valuable and source of inspiration to many of the new folks here.

Cheers,
Deb

[nishant2200]

Visa bulletin page is updated with Jan 2012 (Coming Soon)

good luck to all! one bitter lesson learnt from last month, it cannot be deduced that VB is really coming soon just because this page got updated. I had high hopes since it got updated on the 1st of the month last time too.

I think Friday December 9th will be it. Expect DD a day or two earlier.

[SaturnRing]

As Nishant said, Good luck to all of us

Each day till we have the Jan bulletin public is going to be pretty painful for me. Missed the PD by 2 weeks and I am praying to all gods and good spirits for a forward movement in the upcoming bulletin

[gchopeful123]

Qblogfan,
Brother - this is just UNACCEPTABLE !!!! You have been after COs backend since so many months for not progressing the dates, and now that he has you are not taking the next step. Take the advice of Q, Teddy and others...hire your own attorney and let him recommend next steps. Lawyers are very creative and maybe you will be able to file using prev employment letters, paystubs etc. The I-485 process is between you,lawyer and USCIS so dont worry about your employer. I dont care if this sounds harsh but there is no way we are going to allow you to sit on your backend and do nothing. Dont make us start a petition to get you to file....

Thanks guys! Thanks for asking!

My boss and the CEO went to the meeting with my client. It looks like the project will continue for at least two or three months, but I am not sure whether this company can last for more than several months.

I have kept asking the CEO to file 485 for me, but he didn't give me a clear answer yet. He has delayed my PERM for two years last time. I am not sure how long he will delay this time. Tomorrow is Dec.1st, but the CEO didn't give me an answer yet! It's so much pain to work with these kind of managment people! They know I will leave soon after 485, so they are trying to postpone it as much as they can. Also I guess they are not sure whether this office can continue or not, maybe they don't want to waste the 4k-5k money on me. It's very evil, but I can't do much!

One side note about my thoughts on HR 3012: Because of the possible new HR3012 law, EB2 ROW are scared now. They will rush into the system in the coming 2 or 3 months. The EB2 ROW consumption may go up dramatically.Nobody wants to wait for 2 more years for nothing. The impact of this event is that Mr.CO may stop the VB movement when he sees the surge of EB2 ROW. He will move the VB again once HR 3012 becomes a law. It is just my wild guess. Gurus, please input some on this thought!

[ontheedge]

As Nishant said, Good luck to all of us

Each day till we have the Jan bulletin public is going to be pretty painful for me. Missed the PD by 2 weeks and I am praying to all gods and good spirits for a forward movement in the upcoming bulletin

I hear you Saturn. I am counting days, and crossing fingers and toes

[imdeng]

(Posting in the main thread as well for increased visibility)

Folks - I have created a petition that will send emails (for free) as well as printed letters (for a fee) to your respective senators.

http://www.petition2congress.com/566...rants-hr-3012/

This is a variant of the **'s petition - I have taken their content and edited it and included some thoughts of my own. To me, it reads better than the ** petition. I would urge you to spend the $9 it takes to send a printed version of the letter to the Senators - it definitely has more impact than just an email.

The link allows you to edit the petition before sending if you so wish. If you are making changes, then please share them with me so that I can collate the useful changes and edit the original petition with them.

[mesan123]

signed it.

(Posting in the main thread as well for increased visibility)

Folks - I have created a petition that will send emails (for free) as well as printed letters (for a fee) to your respective senators.

http://www.petition2congress.com/566...rants-hr-3012/

This is a variant of the **'s petition - I have taken their content and edited it and included some thoughts of my own. To me, it reads better than the ** petition. I would urge you to spend the $9 it takes to send a printed version of the letter to the Senators - it definitely has more impact than just an email.

The link allows you to edit the petition before sending if you so wish. If you are making changes, then please share them with me so that I can collate the useful changes and edit the original petition with them.

[tometukuri]

Signed the petition.

Question on filing for adjustment of status - My lawyer sent in my I-485 application yesterday to Texas Service Center. Are I-485 processing times impacted by which service center you file with? I know there might be minor differences in processing times, but just wanted to get other's POV as well.

(Posting in the main thread as well for increased visibility)

Folks - I have created a petition that will send emails (for free) as well as printed letters (for a fee) to your respective senators.

http://www.petition2congress.com/566...rants-hr-3012/

This is a variant of the **'s petition - I have taken their content and edited it and included some thoughts of my own. To me, it reads better than the ** petition. I would urge you to spend the $9 it takes to send a printed version of the letter to the Senators - it definitely has more impact than just an email.

The link allows you to edit the petition before sending if you so wish. If you are making changes, then please share them with me so that I can collate the useful changes and edit the original petition with them.

[nomphy]

Guys - When should we expect actual GC in hand for Nov 2011 filers at TSC

[imdeng]

Yup it makes a difference in the processing times - and unfortunately Texas is the slower one I believe.

My lawyer sent in my I-485 application yesterday to Texas Service Center. Are I-485 processing times impacted by which service center you file with? I know there might be minor differences in processing times, but just wanted to get other's POV as well.

[vizcard]

Yup it makes a difference in the processing times - and unfortunately Texas is the slower one I believe.

Imdeng - what's with the hideous avatar picture

[imdeng]

Not hideous - winged helmet - the symbol of Wolverine Football (Univ of Michigan, one PhD and two Masters from there in my house :-)

Imdeng - what's with the hideous avatar picture

[veni001]

Guys - When should we expect actual GC in hand for Nov 2011 filers at TSC

nomphy,
TSC is pretty slow, i would count at-least three months for EAD/AP and 6 months for GC.

Veni

[gkjppp]

As Nishant said, Good luck to all of us

Each day till we have the Jan bulletin public is going to be pretty painful for me. Missed the PD by 2 weeks and I am praying to all gods and good spirits for a forward movement in the upcoming bulletin

SaturnRing, yours is done deal with or without HR 3012.

[Spectator]

It has overwritten the previous version for 2010 and can be found here

I haven't really looked at it in detail yet, but I did notice the numbers for EB5 have increased by +52.7%. Most other categories have fallen slightly.