EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[veni001]

With respect to fact/data, direct porting data is going to be quite difficult to lay hands on. CIS, in all probability, is never going to reveal the subcomponents in EB2/I-485 approvals. However this is what I see in FY10. Of course as can be seen easily, during the period of retrogression, 2800 allocated visas for India just vanished. And last year India spillover was about 14700. Allocated visas were 2803. Inventory data shows a reduction in the pending cases by 14100. Therefore, approximate number of visa claimants who did not appear in the inventory between October 2009 and 2010 seems to be 2800+600 and that would be only 3400 for India alone. This number might be even less as there seems to be ~1000 still pending from that inventory. These cases might have been abandoned or rejected even after preadjudication. Did I get the numbers wrong? Correct me as all I have is the inventory data to go by.

PS: Now that CIS says that the upgrades are higher, probably it is double the last year's and that means it is 6.8k. This we may know when Oct2011 inventory comes out

anuran,
You forgot the CP numbers. Spec provided CP breakdown in post#509

"EB2
Country ---- Total --- -CP- --- % CP -- CP FY09
China ------- 6,505 ---- 70 -- 1.08% -- 1.18%
India ------ 19,961 --- 102 -- 0.51% -- 0.74%
Mexico -------- 817 ---- 22 -- 2.69% -- 2.06%
Philippines - 2,162 --- 137 -- 6.34% -- 6.59%
ROW -------- 24,427 - 1,167 -- 4.78% -- 3.11%

Total ------ 53,872 - 1,498 -- 2.78% -- 2.76%"

[anuran]

Thanks veni001. That is another 102 EB2 cases not on the inventory. As they still fall within the 2800+600 group, and considering that the upgrading cases among the 102 CP cases is negligible, it would actually cost the estimated porting numbers in FY10 (~3400 to ~3300). Cheers.

[zenmaster]

Hey all, I just got a wild thought, and just for sake of noting it down i am writing it here.
Is it possible that DOL(DOL/DOS/USCIS in conjunction) has delibrately stopped processing PERM filings for last 2 months ? And that it may not process PERM for another 2 or 3 months ?
If they(DOS) want to do something like july2007(or even half of that - like moving cutoff to end of 2009), they may want to restrict very fresh applicants.(less load on uscis), because they certainly want to retrogress it back after moving aggressively.

May be i am just having a day dream Good Luck Folks ! Hope everyone gets atleast an EAD/AP very soon.

[veni001]

If you are interested....

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

Looks like another worst case scenario porting calculations.....!!??

[veni001]

Hey all, I just got a wild thought, and just for sake of noting it down i am writing it here.
Is it possible that DOL(DOL/DOS/USCIS in conjunction) has deliberately stopped processing PERM filings for last 2 months ? And that it may not process PERM for another 2 or 3 months ?
If they(DOS) want to do something like july2007(or even half of that - like moving cutoff to end of 2009), they may want to restrict very fresh applicants.(less load on uscis), because they certainly want to retrogress it back after moving aggressively.

May be i am just having a day dream Good Luck Folks ! Hope everyone gets atleast an EAD/AP very soon.

ravi.shah,
Why would they?

[haripathhi]

Ravi,

Do you have data to back this up or is it just a random thought that you hope is happening currently?

Hey all, I just got a wild thought, and just for sake of noting it down i am writing it here.
Is it possible that DOL(DOL/DOS/USCIS in conjunction) has delibrately stopped processing PERM filings for last 2 months ? And that it may not process PERM for another 2 or 3 months ?
If they(DOS) want to do something like july2007(or even half of that - like moving cutoff to end of 2009), they may want to restrict very fresh applicants.(less load on uscis), because they certainly want to retrogress it back after moving aggressively.

May be i am just having a day dream Good Luck Folks ! Hope everyone gets atleast an EAD/AP very soon.

[kd2008]

Ravi,

Do you have data to back this up or is it just a random thought that you hope is happening currently?

Just look up trackitt data.

[gcwait2007]

If you are interested....

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

Looks like another worst case scenario porting calculations.....!!??

The blog is close to reality expected.

[anuran]

If you are interested....

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

Looks like another worst case scenario porting calculations.....!!??

I read that the day before and the predictions are quite ominous. It seems to almost support what some internet chatter suggests. The convergence of EB2-EB3 in the near future (worst case scenario). By my estimates for this FY'11 the upgrading applications will consume >7000 visas. When an application with PD in 2003 or 2004 appears before the CIS then they will have to give them the GC. It almost sounds like a conspiracy theory, but there might be something to what ravi.shah is saying. I believe that CIS started using the spillover in May just for that purpose. If that is the case we should not see any change in the next pending inventory. We may even see an increase in the pending cases. Therefore for any movement similar to last year to happen, we might require at least 40k in spillover. Or else bye-bye to cutoff date moving into 2007 this year.

[gcwait2007]

If you are interested....

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

Looks like another worst case scenario porting calculations.....!!??

To reach the PD of 1st July 2007, there are 8574 estimated EB3 to EB2 portings to be accounted in the spillover.

I feel that I should go back to my original prediction of 1st March 2007, after seeing the portings estimation.

[veni001]

To reach the PD of 1st July 2007, there are 8574 estimated EB3 to EB2 portings to be accounted in the spillover.

I feel that I should go back to my original prediction of 1st March 2007, after seeing the portings estimation.

gcwait2007,
I am hoping we will have a better understanding at these numbers once USCIS release March inventory update and DOL release Q2 PERM certification data.

[gcseeker]

Veni

You are correct the Q2 Perm certification data should reveal the true picture about EB3->EB2 porting.

If it turns out it is anywhere in the range of 8K-9K as mentioned in the worst case links above...it would not be a good sign for EB2 folks post April 2007 and then probably the dates will stagnate since it could indicate greater number of EB3 folks with PD's before 2005 porting to EB2.

I pray the pessimistic predictions about porting are wrong...just hope they release the Perm certification soon.

gcwait2007,
I am hoping we will have a better understanding at these numbers once USCIS release March inventory update and DOL release Q2 PERM certification data.

[gcseeker]

Veni

Also would you know if this is the place to look for the PERM certification data

http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx

The data seems to be only released annually...does this mean data for this year will not be available untill Dec ?

[veni001]

Veni

Also would you know if this is the place to look for the PERM certification data

http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx

The data seems to be only released annually...does this mean data for this year will not be available untill Dec ?

Yes, for annual updates, starting FY 2011 DOL is publishing quarterly updates which can be found at the following link.

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rterlydata.cfm

[veni001]

Veni

You are correct the Q2 Perm certification data should reveal the true picture about EB3->EB2 porting.

If it turns out it is anywhere in the range of 8K-9K as mentioned in the worst case links above...it would not be a good sign for EB2 folks post April 2007 and then probably the dates will stagnate since it could indicate greater number of EB3 folks with PD's before 2005 porting to EB2.

I pray the pessimistic predictions about porting are wrong...just hope they release the Perm certification soon.

If this is true then, by when is the key for this year's final quarter PD movement.
Q and others estimates on this forum explain that this could be less than what everybody is estimating since the dates did not retrogress. I agree with them because if these estimates are true or at-least close then, definitely it should have been reflected in the demand data.

[qesehmk]

Agree that 485 inventory update will be helpful.

Not sure how Q2 PERM data could be used to determine portings? Any thoughts?

gcwait2007,
I am hoping we will have a better understanding at these numbers once USCIS release March inventory update and DOL release Q2 PERM certification data.

[shaumack]

If this is true then, by when is the key for this year's final quarter PD movement.
Q and others estimates on this forum explain that this could be less than what everybody is estimating since the dates did not retrogress. I agree with them because if these estimates are true or at-least close then, definitely it should have been reflected in the demand data.

I think this was reflected in the demand data but then we were all thinking in terms of use of 233 visas per month and not 450-500 which DOS used to avoid retrogression and thus ended up using annual limit.

[veni001]

I think this was reflected in the demand data but then we were all thinking in terms of use of 233 visas per month and not 450-500 which DOS used to avoid retrogression and thus ended up using annual limit.

shaumack,
This is what DOS hinted in May VB and also only in the case of EB2I , i don't think DOS/USCIS has done something similar in the past!
If using 2.8k instead of 1.4K helped the PD not to retrogress in the first two quarters is a good news indeed, at this rate porting numbers will be in the same ballpark of our initial estimates 5-6k, instead of the extreme numbers 15-20k.

[tedtom]

Hi,

My PD is 2nd Oct 2006 EB2, will it be current by end of year 2011.

Thanks

[gcwait2007]

Hi,

My PD is 2nd Oct 2006 EB2, will it be current by end of year 2011.

Thanks

The chances are bright;
however, you pray for it.
No prediction can be accurate.

[tedtom]

The chances are bright;
however, you pray for it.
No prediction can be accurate.

I must buy a parrot and some cards marked with dates for these predictions..

Really surprised in this computer age uscis cannot tell exactly its current state of eb2, eb3 prediction. [eb3->eb2 porting is a variable is see]

Thanks

[qesehmk]

U don't need to. USCIS is that parrot! Except of course this parrot is blind deaf and mute.


Having said that you have a 100% chance of getting it this year.

I must buy a parrot and some cards marked with dates for these predictions..

[ifaith]

U don't need to. USCIS is that parrot! Except of course this parrot is blind deaf and mute.


Having said that you have a 100% chance of getting it this year.

Hi Q
So would you say that chances of being current and getting the Green Card in Hand is also high by the end of the year for tedtom.

[qesehmk]

iFaith

Based on TedTom's PD (2 Oct 2006) and EB2 .... I think the chance is a 100% that he will get a GC by end Sep 2011.

Hi Q
So would you say that chances of being current and getting the Green Card in Hand is also high by the end of the year for tedtom.

[Spectator]

For anyone interested, the USCIS Dashboard has been upadated with figures for February 2011.

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/