EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[imdeng]

I think we have learned to be quite conservative to avoid disappointment - but remember that before the EB1 12K bombshell dropped, we expected spillover to be quite low last year as well. So all we know, we might get another 30K-35K spillover.

Demand density post 07/07 is the wild card. Based on PERM data, we are considering the period from 07/07 to end of 2008 as being quite dense - but there are a lot of moving factors there - including demand destruction due to lack of EAD, lower dependent ratios, duplication of PERM filings (in general, Indians who came to the country later have tended to have more two-income households with both spouses on independent H1Bs and independent I-140s; just my impression).

With 07/07 inventory gone, we are quite blind now. A few months will clear the air. Hopefully. In any case, I remain optimistic about future movement. We have crossed the densest year (2007), we have a potentially-equally-dense-but-probably-less-dense 2008 ahead of us followed by a very weak 2009. Unfortunately, 2010 is again quite dense - but that is not of immediate concern.

PS> Look at how the Chinese EB2 demand has fallen from a cliff around 2007. I won't be surprised of EB21 follows the same pattern with some delay.
PPS> If you have not watched yet, please see the recent South Park episodes about Mexican immigrants going back - its funny because its true (almost).

I think the Gurus have been unanimous in their opinion that the movement we are seeing is to generate inventory only, and not everyone here will receive their GCs this year. The dates may move forward further in Jan and Feb, but will almost certainly retrogress to some point in early 2008. There is disagreement amongst the Gurus as to what that retrogression date may be.

The variables include, a) EB1 and EB2ROW (the Gurus are unanimous in the expectation that it will be lower this year), b) Porting (disagreement in what the level is, but the Gurus are unanimous that it will be constant from last year), and c) demand destruction due to the recession (no consensus here but the Gurus are more conservative in general than aam public).

I don't mean to be a naysayer, but with my Apr 25, 2008 PD, I fully expect to submit my I485 this year and receive my EAD, but I do not expect my GC until the FY2013 spill over starts. If that's Quarterly spill over, I'll get it by Dec 2012, if its annual, it won't be until June 2013. But I still remain hopeful that HR3012 will help.

[evoori]

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...3312#post13312

Congratulations to all who are current!

I am current too and have a couple of questions. My lawyer is usually slow to respond and cannot be contacted directly too. So, can any one please provide some inputs?

I am planning to go on my vacation, to India, from Dec-5th to Jan-4th. If I file on Dec-1st,

1. Within how many days will I get my notice for finger printing notice?

2. Will it come to my home address? In that case, since I will not be here, is it possible for it to be sent to the lawyer's office so that they can email me the information?

3. Will it be possible to postpone my finger printing to after I return (in early Jan)? If not, what is the safe period before when I should return (in Dec)?

4. If all of this would not really work, is it wise to file in January, after my return, than in December?


Thanks for the help!

P.S. Admins, I posted in this thread due to the traffic volume. Please delete/ move this to a relevant thread once it has been answered.

[imdeng]

My sincere advice to you is to postpone your visit. You never know about potential retrogression - and you want to have the earliest receipt date possible (in case they have some kind of FIFO in there). You will get an EAD in a matter of months and then you can visit with peace of mind. You have an opportunity that so many of us have been waiting since forever for - don't mess with it.

I am planning to go on my vacation, to India, from Dec-5th to Jan-4th. If I file on Dec-1st,

1. Within how many days will I get my notice for finger printing notice?

2. Will it come to my home address? In that case, since I will not be here, is it possible for it to be sent to the lawyer's office so that they can email me the information?

3. Will it be possible to postpone my finger printing to after I return (in early Jan)? If not, what is the safe period before when I should return (in Dec)?

4. If all of this would not really work, is it wise to file in January, after my return, than in December?

[self.coach]

Gurus, what are pre-adjudicated cases and how do I know if mine is? My PD is 08-20-09, EB2I.

[frenzyrider]

This is my first post. I have been a lurker for almost a year. However, this forum has been a great resource for my understanding of the process. Q, Spec, Teddy, Nishant, Veni, and every one of you has been great. I am missing sogaddu for a while especially he cracks me up on every one of his post.

Having said that, my wife's employer had sponsored her for Eb2 and the PD is Mar 8, 2008. So yeeaaah..she is current.

Couple of questions -

1) Unfortunately, she is travelling to India for family medical emergency this weekend and coming back on the first week of December. She would need to get her H1 stamped. Can there be a problem in stamping that now she is current.

2) We have not filed the 485 ever so we are planning to file for 485, EAD, and AP after she returns. Is there anything that we should do in advance so that we can file the paperwork immediately upon her return.

FrenzyRider

[pdfeb09]

Gurus, what are pre-adjudicated cases and how do I know if mine is? My PD is 08-20-09, EB2I.

Pre-adjudicated cases are those 485 applications that were filed earlier and USCIS has had time to process them. They did not get Greened for the lack of Visa numbers. This was/is the case with many people who filed for 485 during July 2007 fiasco.

If you have never filed for AOS (I485) then you are not pre-adjudicated.

[vizcard]

CO did not give any comments in this bulletin. I think he is going to stand on his words that he communicated before.

Here is the info from Murthy article posted before.

EB2 India and China: More Movement Likely in January and February

In addition to the predictions for December 2011, the DOS also anticipates similar levels of advancement during January and February 2012. No specific cutoff dates were given as predictions for these months. The reason for this advancement, as explained in previous MurthyBulletin articles, is that the prior movement of EB2 cutoff dates has allowed for the approval of the vast majority of pending EB2 I-485 cases. Thus, since I-485 cases take approximately four to six months for U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) processing, the DOS has to move the cutoff dates forward to allow for enough I-485 filings to fill the (largely empty) pipeline of cases. This has to be done far enough in advance of the end of FY12 (September 30) for cases to be approved before the end of the fiscal year. Otherwise, if there are not enough cases ready for approval, the visa numbers could go unused.

I'm going to wing it a little and see if this makes sense. This is a stream of consciouness so I apologize if its complete BS.

If we assume that USCIS takes 5 months (average), they would need to get approx 35K by April 2012 (right?). At 2.5K density he needs to move 14 months. If we assume 3K porting and some small existing demand >0, we can expect total movement would be 11-12 months this year. I think we hit July 1 or Aug 1 max.

[mesan123]

Hi Frenzyrider,

I can answer to my knowledge...i got my stamping recently from india(chennai consulate). if your wife is from consulatncy company, she will have to face little longer interview time, if she has documents she can get the visa same day but i would tell 70% chances to get visa on same date( they may ask for some documents as that has been trend even if they get very little doubt also.) But people are getting visa even after getting 221g.

if she can postpone her trip untill dec first week( if she can only, i dont know your situations, just a suggestion) it would be idle.

bcoz, for any reason her visa gets delayed you may be stuck there for 3weeks to 3 months based on the queries they give. as ur priority date is mar 8th, if the dates retrogress in JAN bulletin it would be tough

I would suggest if she can file 485 and then go for india trip...

GOOD LUCK

This is my first post. I have been a lurker for almost a year. However, this forum has been a great resource for my understanding of the process. Q, Spec, Teddy, Nishant, Veni, and every one of you has been great. I am missing sogaddu for a while especially he cracks me up on every one of his post.

Having said that, my wife's employer had sponsored her for Eb2 and the PD is Mar 8, 2008. So yeeaaah..she is current.

Couple of questions -

1) Unfortunately, she is travelling to India for family medical emergency this weekend and coming back on the first week of December. She would need to get her H1 stamped. Can there be a problem in stamping that now she is current.

2) We have not filed the 485 ever so we are planning to file for 485, EAD, and AP after she returns. Is there anything that we should do in advance so that we can file the paperwork immediately upon her return.

FrenzyRider

[qblogfan]

Thanks! I have sent an email to the CEO and asked him to start 485, but I don't know whether he will move forward! He delayed my PERM for 2 years or more! He may think this slave will get freedom and may not be happy about it. Plus the company is shaking and may collapse soon! I will see how it goes!

Congratulations to one and all that will be current with this VB! QBF, hope you file your I-485 without any further complications and finally see an end to your slavery!

[tackle]

Congratulations to all who are current!

I am current too and have a couple of questions. My lawyer is usually slow to respond and cannot be contacted directly too. So, can any one please provide some inputs?

I am planning to go on my vacation, to India, from Dec-5th to Jan-4th. If I file on Dec-1st,

1. Within how many days will I get my notice for finger printing notice?

2. Will it come to my home address? In that case, since I will not be here, is it possible for it to be sent to the lawyer's office so that they can email me the information?

3. Will it be possible to postpone my finger printing to after I return (in early Jan)? If not, what is the safe period before when I should return (in Dec)?

4. If all of this would not really work, is it wise to file in January, after my return, than in December?


Thanks for the help!

P.S. Admins, I posted in this thread due to the traffic volume. Please delete/ move this to a relevant thread once it has been answered.

Here is my comments on this:
1. Do you already have a valid visa stamped on your passport? Or do you need to go stamping when you are in India? My lawyers advised my friend to not leave country until he gets AP

2. I think the lawyers could fill out the forms in a way that they'll get FP notice. But I'm not 100% sure about that. I haven't got my notice yet. When I do, I'll let you know if my lawyers get it or if I get it.

3. Copy pasted from uscis webpage:

If you have filed an I-485, I-589, I-751, N-400, I-90, I-821, I-131 or I-765, you can expect to receive an appointment notice to appear at an Application Support Center to have your fingerprints and/or photographs taken. The timing of your appointment is determined by the number of applicants ahead of you that also need a biometric appointment. We try to schedule biometric appointments as quickly as possible and in most cases you will receive your appointment notice within 30 days of submitting your application. We will send your appointment notice approximately 14 days ahead of your scheduled appointment. It is important that you keep this appointment. If absolutely necessary, you can request that your appointment be rescheduled however, please be aware that rescheduling may delay the processing of your application. Please follow the instructions on your appointment notice if you need to reschedule. Occasionally, you may receive an appointment notice to appear at an Application Support Center to have your fingerprints taken when you have filed a form other than those listed above. In these situations, you may receive your appointment notice more than 30 days after submitting your application or petition.

So, it is possible to reschedule FP. Now, it is up to you to decide what's the best course to take. I understand how travel to India is a commitment and it could be difficult to reschedule due to various reasons. Discuss with your lawyer (start discussion right away as you mentioned they are slow to respond) and ask for their opinion. Also, you've said that your lawyer is slow (to respond). So, is there a guarantee that they'll send your applications before you leave to India? I think the applicants must actually be in US at the time of application. All the best!.

[frenzyrider]

Thank you for a detailed reply.

No she is not in a consultancy company.

I think this is possibly the best time for her to go because once you file for 485, it can be risky to travel without a AP or EAD because the consular officer or the officer at POE can easily see that she has filed for a 485.

Any thoughts, anyone?

Hi Frenzyrider,

I can answer to my knowledge...i got my stamping recently from india(chennai consulate). if your wife is from consulatncy company, she will have to face little longer interview time, if she has documents she can get the visa same day but i would tell 70% chances to get visa on same date( they may ask for some documents as that has been trend even if they get very little doubt also.) But people are getting visa even after getting 221g.

if she can postpone her trip untill dec first week( if she can only, i dont know your situations, just a suggestion) it would be idle.

bcoz, for any reason her visa gets delayed you may be stuck there for 3weeks to 3 months based on the queries they give. as ur priority date is mar 8th, if the dates retrogress in JAN bulletin it would be tough

I would suggest if she can file 485 and then go for india trip...

GOOD LUCK

[username]

Vizcard,
i am current with many others today. is it ok to make an appointment with civil surgeon now or do we need to wait for 12/1?
thanks!

Don't wait for a single minute. Go and get your body puncher now...

[tometukuri]

Pdmar08 - Why do you want to wait till 12/1 when you are current today. You can get the tests done asap as far as I know. The validity is I-693 is for a year

[pdmay2008]

I'm going to wing it a little and see if this makes sense. This is a stream of consciouness so I apologize if its complete BS.

If we assume that USCIS takes 5 months (average), they would need to get approx 35K by April 2012 (right?). At 2.5K density he needs to move 14 months. If we assume 3K porting and some small existing demand >0, we can expect total movement would be 11-12 months this year. I think we hit July 1 or Aug 1 max.

I can not read CO mind. But If they want to maintain 35K pipeline all the time, they need to atleast move another 4 to 6 months in next couple of months.

[vizcard]

Vizcard,
i am current with many others today. is it ok to make an appointment with civil surgeon now or do we need to wait for 12/1?
thanks!

Do it now... asap congrats btw.

[imdeng]

Same advice as to the other poster - if it is at all possible, postpone your travel until you get EAD. Especially since she needs a stamping - there is no point in risking. I got stuck in a stupid clerical error 221g (if you look a few pages back, you will get the details) when I have the most stable/problem-free H1B job possible in US. My company lawyers essentially said that I was a fool to even think of going to India and getting the stamp - they recommend staying put until EAD/AP stage is reached.

This is my first post. I have been a lurker for almost a year. However, this forum has been a great resource for my understanding of the process. Q, Spec, Teddy, Nishant, Veni, and every one of you has been great. I am missing sogaddu for a while especially he cracks me up on every one of his post.

Having said that, my wife's employer had sponsored her for Eb2 and the PD is Mar 8, 2008. So yeeaaah..she is current.

Couple of questions -

1) Unfortunately, she is travelling to India for family medical emergency this weekend and coming back on the first week of December. She would need to get her H1 stamped. Can there be a problem in stamping that now she is current.

2) We have not filed the 485 ever so we are planning to file for 485, EAD, and AP after she returns. Is there anything that we should do in advance so that we can file the paperwork immediately upon her return.

FrenzyRider

[vizcard]

I can not read CO mind. But If they want to maintain 35K pipeline all the time, they need to atleast move another 4 to 6 months in next couple of months.

Gun to my head, I'd say 4 months (although I'd personally love 6) by March/April. So it doesn't have to be in the next 2 bulletins. I think the gurus have indicated the same.

[pdmay2008]

Gun to my head, I'd say 4 months (although I'd personally love 6) by March/April. So it doesn't have to be in the next 2 bulletins. I think the gurus have indicated the same.

I agree that it does not need to be in next 2 bulletins according to our stats and Gurus opinion. But by taking CO words in his previous discussion with attorneys group, I would say it would be in next two VBs.

[kd2008]

This is my first post. I have been a lurker for almost a year. However, this forum has been a great resource for my understanding of the process. Q, Spec, Teddy, Nishant, Veni, and every one of you has been great. I am missing sogaddu for a while especially he cracks me up on every one of his post.

Having said that, my wife's employer had sponsored her for Eb2 and the PD is Mar 8, 2008. So yeeaaah..she is current.

Couple of questions -

1) Unfortunately, she is travelling to India for family medical emergency this weekend and coming back on the first week of December. She would need to get her H1 stamped. Can there be a problem in stamping that now she is current.

2) We have not filed the 485 ever so we are planning to file for 485, EAD, and AP after she returns. Is there anything that we should do in advance so that we can file the paperwork immediately upon her return.

FrenzyRider

If it is a true family medical emergency, then don't even think about anything else. Just go. Since she is going for stamping too and staying there for 4 weeks, it would help if she did it as soon as she arrives in India. This will give enough time to resolve any issue if they arise. Do not worry about denials etc - they are mostly overblown because people who face issues are more vocal than people who have a smooth experience. This gives a false impression that it is difficult to get the visa stamped.

In mean time you need to do the leg work and follow up with attorneys and get paperwork in order - esp. birth and marriage certificates and medical exam. Once your wife returns and completes her medical exam, you can file without any issues.

[vishnu]

I agree with KD2008 - if it is a true family emergency then not much else can be done. Go... I went to Chennai consulate in September for H1 renewal and no probs. Passport received back the next day at VFS center with stamp. But if you are in IT consulting, just be more prepared and have ALL the letters required.

[dorais]

Congrats to everyone who got current!

How could I look at the number of PERM's applied for each month? I looked at the PERM database, but it only had the decision/approval date in it. Could you get the application date from the perm case number? For example if the case number is A-08271-91262, does 08 stand for fiscal year and is there any other digits that represents the number of days in the year?

Thanks,
Dorais.

I think we have learned to be quite conservative to avoid disappointment - but remember that before the EB1 12K bombshell dropped, we expected spillover to be quite low last year as well. So all we know, we might get another 30K-35K spillover.

Demand density post 07/07 is the wild card. Based on PERM data, we are considering the period from 07/07 to end of 2008 as being quite dense - but there are a lot of moving factors there - including demand destruction due to lack of EAD, lower dependent ratios, duplication of PERM filings (in general, Indians who came to the country later have tended to have more two-income households with both spouses on independent H1Bs and independent I-140s; just my impression).

With 07/07 inventory gone, we are quite blind now. A few months will clear the air. Hopefully. In any case, I remain optimistic about future movement. We have crossed the densest year (2007), we have a potentially-equally-dense-but-probably-less-dense 2008 ahead of us followed by a very weak 2009. Unfortunately, 2010 is again quite dense - but that is not of immediate concern.

PS> Look at how the Chinese EB2 demand has fallen from a cliff around 2007. I won't be surprised of EB21 follows the same pattern with some delay.
PPS> If you have not watched yet, please see the recent South Park episodes about Mexican immigrants going back - its funny because its true (almost).

[mesan123]

Oh ok.. i also work full time , i got my visa stamped with no issues as i mentioned to you. so i think she should not have any problem, ALL THE BEST. but in the mean time get all your documents for EAD ready so that she can file as soon as she is back

Thank you for a detailed reply.

No she is not in a consultancy company.

I think this is possibly the best time for her to go because once you file for 485, it can be risky to travel without a AP or EAD because the consular officer or the officer at POE can easily see that she has filed for a 485.

Any thoughts, anyone?

[mysati]

Thanks tackle, evoori, Nishant, trackright, vizcard and imdeng for your suggestions and the links!

Yes, I do have a valid stamp (until next Oct) and I will let you all know once I find more info about the FP process.

Here is my comments on this:
1. Do you already have a valid visa stamped on your passport? Or do you need to go stamping when you are in India? My lawyers advised my friend to not leave country until he gets AP

2. I think the lawyers could fill out the forms in a way that they'll get FP notice. But I'm not 100% sure about that. I haven't got my notice yet. When I do, I'll let you know if my lawyers get it or if I get it.

3. Copy pasted from uscis webpage:


So, it is possible to reschedule FP. Now, it is up to you to decide what's the best course to take. I understand how travel to India is a commitment and it could be difficult to reschedule due to various reasons. Discuss with your lawyer (start discussion right away as you mentioned they are slow to respond) and ask for their opinion. Also, you've said that your lawyer is slow (to respond). So, is there a guarantee that they'll send your applications before you leave to India? I think the applicants must actually be in US at the time of application. All the best!.

[Pedro Gonzales]

129 Views for the thread asking the number of perms per person......... but nobody is willing to add their details. Hm!!!!!!!

Add the request and url to your signature. And stop deleting your posts, so people look at the signature. It'll drive more traffic there.

Also, the vast majority of views are generally by guests who can't post since they haven't registered yet. Q, is there a way we can make certain threads open to comments from guests?

[RRRRRR]

Hi All,

Congratulations to all who got current.....

Hi frenzyrider,

As advised by someone plan this knowing that this trip is critical and the timelines for filling too..this is how i would do incase the 485 cannot be filed before leaving for INDIA which seems to be your case. Most importantly get the visa date as close to her landing date so that you get some extra time.

1) Get medicals done for you and for your wife before she leaves.Remember TB test takes 24-48 hours for the result to show up so you may want to get them ASAP
2) Get the birth certificate and other document in order.
3) Fill the forms and send to attorney for validation only, remember your wife's 485 and 765 will have to be updated because she will have to fill the POE and date once she returns
4) once she returns you can sign the documents and send the final package.

Thanks...

If it is a true family medical emergency, then don't even think about anything else. Just go. Since she is going for stamping too and staying there for 4 weeks, it would help if she did it as soon as she arrives in India. This will give enough time to resolve any issue if they arise. Do not worry about denials etc - they are mostly overblown because people who face issues are more vocal than people who have a smooth experience. This gives a false impression that it is difficult to get the visa stamped.

In mean time you need to do the leg work and follow up with attorneys and get paperwork in order - esp. birth and marriage certificates and medical exam. Once your wife returns and completes her medical exam, you can file without any issues.