EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[TeddyKoochu]

Isn't the spill over supposed to go to EB2-I as long as the EB2-I dates are lagging behind EB2-C dates, meaning for the next bulletin the spillover will primarily be going to EB2-I?

I believe that what they have given is 4.5K which is the inventory demand till Jul 2006, China is still moving by its own cap as India and China dates are different. This is really over-caution on porting if the 12K news is correct.

[viypr07]

Unless there is 6K porting(Eb3-Eb2) pending(or DOS&USCIS expecting 6k porting in the next 30 days) i don't think they can use all 12k( let's hope this # is correct) spillover.

What i meant was they have not given all 12k. Hope to see more movement in next 2 months when they apply the rest of 12k. before normal spillover happens in aug-sept.

[veni001]

What i meant was they have not given all 12k. Hope to see more movement in next 2 months when they apply the rest of 12k. before normal spillover happens in aug-sept.

Let's hope so!

[srinivasj]

by very conservative estimate if dates move to end of year 2006 in July bulletin when the final spillover is applied....how long would it take for the dates to cross january 2007..?

[nayekal]

What i meant was they have not given all 12k. Hope to see more movement in next 2 months when they apply the rest of 12k. before normal spillover happens in aug-sept.

I am confused. Normal spillover should kick in from July itself and that is the start of 4rth quarter. In bulletin, they gave an estimate for China.
China: none to three weeks expected through July.

Which means, they are assuming that China will still use its own allocated visa numbers and India depends on spill over. If this is the case, then China will be ahead of India and we will still stuck some where in August or Sept, by July.

This is surprising and also depressing.

[gcseek]

So, the calculation may be as follows :

1. Regular EB2 - Upto Jun-end - 3008
2. Porting Till May bulletin : 2800 + something (something = allocated for may - 3008).
3. China is getting its regular quota, but Aug PD onwards, will share the spillover with India.

Is that what we are given to understand? Comments?

On a lighter side, can EB3 guys contribute here?

[veni001]

Veni001

do you mean total EB1 Spilldown will be 24k?
It looks like they just want to test the waters with possible 485 filings from May-July2006 period

Biber,
Yes 24k for the entire FY 2011 from EB1, unless the ported applications are already in the pipeline, i don't think USCIS see any change in the demand for May 2011.

[qesehmk]

Friends,

So here comes the bulletin! And it didnt disappoint AT ALL. Here is the reason why.

1. DOS admitted there is significant underutilization in EB1. This is the ultimate thing for EB2. All of them fall straight into EB2. Plus all of EB5 falls into EB2.
2. DOS also mentioned that China and ROW EB2 are within their bounds. In other words the numbers will mostly come to EB2IC whenever they start allocating by PD in EB2.
3. By way of 2 above - DOS hasn't started allocating by PD (in other words FD and FA is still not occuring.
4. Inspite of 1,2,3 above, DOS still moved the dates. And this is the most interesting part. If you read carefully, they say they moved the date to test the upgrade demand in pipeline. Now since we don't see EB3 unusual reduction in numbers in EB3I, that is a perfect indication that porting is not that high (i.e. 10-15K). Rather it is 4-5-6K. However from DOS perspective 4-5-6K demand would still keep India retrogressed and hence the DOS observation that porting is high. DOS also acknowedged that the high demand may not materialize. In my opinion they should know exactly what the porting is because they must be cancelling the EB3 related to a porting. So they can easily extrapolate. So this beats me a little bit why they need to separately ascertain porting by moving dates 2 months. May be they have some internal visibility issues.

BOTTOMLINE: No harm is done. Our predictions are on track. As we said earlier, its just a matter of time when FD FA start materializing.

Note - There is still some risk that EB1 usage may surge or EB2 ROW may surge. The former is medium. The latter is low. But all of that is built into predictions.

[pch053]

I agree and based on USCIS's low demand of EB1, I will assume the spill over number to be higher than 12K for the entire year. But, we are not seeing it's reflection in the visa bulletin (at least the May bulletin). On the other hand, they say EB3->EB2 porting is very high but again we are not seeing it in the visa numbers in terms of reduction in EB3I pending applicants.

[gcseeker]

Pch

I might be wrong but here goes.

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_eb3to2.html

Most porting cases do not go straight and convert the existing EB3 case.They will in fact file a new labour and get a new I-140 and that stage file what is called an Interfiling to link the both.They have the added security of keeping the EB3 going ( esp with older dates near to 2002) they have a chance with both...

This is why the reduction will not be visible...in the EB3 numbers Only after the interfile or interlink being approved will USCIS take those numbers out and that is the part muddling the entire thing.Also there is an smaller subsection of people who have multiple approved I-140's (esp pre 2004 batch ) and they tend to keep the EB3 going as well file the EB2 .

I agree and based on USCIS's low demand of EB1, I will assume the spill over number to be higher than 12K for the entire year. But, we are not seeing it's reflection in the visa bulletin (at least the May bulletin). On the other hand, they say EB3->EB2 porting is very high but again we are not seeing it in the visa numbers in terms of reduction in EB3I pending applicants.

[admin]

gcseeker

the situation you describe is possible. But consider this, if EB2I porting were more than 2.8K (for PD prior to May-06), then the dates would've retrogressed. Since we didn't see that ... it does mean porting is within 2.8K for dates prior to May 06. The question is how much is post may 06. And that's what DOS is going to test with the 2 month movement. In my opinion this isnot quite necessary. But its their call.

Pch

I might be wrong but here goes.

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_eb3to2.html

Most porting cases do not go straight and convert the existing EB3 case.They will in fact file a new labour and get a new I-140 and that stage file what is called an Interfiling to link the both.They have the added security of keeping the EB3 going ( esp with older dates near to 2002) they have a chance with both...

This is why the reduction will not be visible...in the EB3 numbers Only after the interfile or interlink being approved will USCIS take those numbers out and that is the part muddling the entire thing.Also there is an smaller subsection of people who have multiple approved I-140's (esp pre 2004 batch ) and they tend to keep the EB3 going as well file the EB2 .

[gcseeker]

Q

Pretty good catch .Yup definetly the dates would have retrogressed .I have seen some polls on trackitt and some as in the link below where most of the cases being ported seem to be from 2006 and beyond instead of the EB3 cases from 2002.

It might be a sign of behavioural psychology where people with EB3 dates close to 2003 seem to beleive they will get the gc within a couple of years and do not want to spend the 10,000 for porting.....

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...s-part-ii.html

It might not continue to be the same if EB2 moves rapidly. USCIS seems to be testing the waters to get an idea for this.

gcseeker

the situation you describe is possible. But consider this, if EB2I porting were more than 2.8K (for PD prior to May-06), then the dates would've retrogressed. Since we didn't see that ... it does mean porting is within 2.8K for dates prior to May 06. The question is how much is post may 06. And that's what DOS is going to test with the 2 month movement. In my opinion this isnot quite necessary. But its their call.

[pch053]

Good points! So, if we have high porting (say > 6K), then at least at the end of the year when the porting cases have been approved, we should see a reduction in EB3 pending cases, right? So, based on the pending EB3 numbers in the Oct bulletin, we should be able to deduce roughly how many EB3 cases were ported to EB2. This is more of an after thought rather than prediction but at least it will give us a better idea on what realistic porting numbers can be in the coming years.

[Gclongwait]

Pch

I might be wrong but here goes.

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_eb3to2.html

Most porting cases do not go straight and convert the existing EB3 case.They will in fact file a new labour and get a new I-140 and that stage file what is called an Interfiling to link the both.They have the added security of keeping the EB3 going ( esp with older dates near to 2002) they have a chance with both...

This is why the reduction will not be visible...in the EB3 numbers Only after the interfile or interlink being approved will USCIS take those numbers out and that is the part muddling the entire thing.Also there is an smaller subsection of people who have multiple approved I-140's (esp pre 2004 batch ) and they tend to keep the EB3 going as well file the EB2 .

Assuming that the EB3 demand may not reduce even after porting to EB2, what other way do we have to say what porting numbers are. The dates did not retrogess but it seems like they have been allocating more than the monthly quota of 280 just to keep the dates at the same level (since EB2I has already finished its 2800 allocation).

Is there any reason to believe that the entire 12000 has not already been allocated in May (which is what they said would be done) which would mean that porting is at

porting = 12000 + 2800 - x
where x = 2 months fwd movement worth of visas.

Have porting been grossly underestimated due to false impression that EB3 demand would drop or dates would retrogess?

[gcseeker]

Pch

Yup you are right.Looking at the Oct bulletin should definetly give some hints to predict the porting numbers for the future.

Gclongwait

I do beleive porting has been underestimated based on the calculation of EB3 pending inventory . Also it is very hard to estimate due to crowd psychology being involved here. The Oct bulletin should prove this clearly whether porting is small or huge.

Personal experience traversing the other forums and trackitt pages not based on inventory has been people are porting in higher numbers than estimated.Many of them caught in the endless EB3 loop are frustated .

Good points! So, if we have high porting (say > 6K), then at least at the end of the year when the porting cases have been approved, we should see a reduction in EB3 pending cases, right? So, based on the pending EB3 numbers in the Oct bulletin, we should be able to deduce roughly how many EB3 cases were ported to EB2. This is more of an after thought rather than prediction but at least it will give us a better idea on what realistic porting numbers can be in the coming years.

[qesehmk]

To answer question below: Lets assume 12K is available and is being distributed in the order of PD. Now since prior to may dates didn't retrogress and now the 12K is helping avoid retrogression May onwards - would mean that porting suddently jumped in May almost by 12K or a little less than that. The probability of any such thing happening is extremely low. Right?

Is there any reason to believe that the entire 12000 has not already been allocated in May (which is what they said would be done) which would mean that porting is at

porting = 12000 + 2800 - x
where x = 2 months fwd movement worth of visas.

[nayekal]

To answer question below: Lets assume 12K is available and is being distributed in the order of PD. Now since prior to may dates didn't retrogress and now the 12K is helping avoid retrogression May onwards - would mean that porting suddently jumped in May almost by 12K or a little less than that. The probability of any such thing happening is extremely low. Right?

Eb2 I pending numbers for May + June = 3008
1200+2800-3008 = 11792.
50% of primary applicants = 5896.

May be they are anticipating this number of porting apps up to May and June.

[pch053]

I feel it is a gross overestimation of assuming ~6K primary applicants (~12K pending EB3) will be porting in next 2 - 3 months. If this really happens, EB3-I pending inventory should reduce by 15K - 20K by Oct'11 from Oct'10 pending EB3 numbers. I am inclined to believe Q's notion that USCIS is moving the dates cautiously and testing waters a bit. I hope this optimistic line of thought holds true!

[qesehmk]

I think, splitting applications into primary and dependent doesn't change anything because then you couldve done the same on portings prior to may-06.

Its the quantum jump between may & post-may that we are questioning. Would there reallly be that kind of jump? I think not. That makes me believe that the 12K is really not there at all. They have simply opened the window to assess how much the demand exceed when done on only two months. And then accordingly they will likely move dates when FD FA happens.

And actually that brings us to a very good point which I forgot to make earlier. DOS most likely will NOT open the floodgates. Their move of 2 months to test waters tells us that they will move dates in a very controlled manner. So bummer for the people waiting to file. Sorry guys. I wish I am wrong on this one.

Eb2 I pending numbers for May + June = 3008
1200+2800-3008 = 11792.
50% of primary applicants = 5896.

May be they are anticipating this number of porting apps up to May and June.

[veni001]

I think, splitting applications into primary and dependent doesn't change anything because then you couldve done the same on portings prior to may-06.

Its the quantum jump between may & post-may that we are questioning. Would there reallly be that kind of jump? I think not. That makes me believe that the 12K is really not there at all. They have simply opened the window to assess how much the demand exceed when done on only two months. And then accordingly they will likely move dates when FD FA happens.

And actually that brings us to a very good point which I forgot to make earlier. DOS most likely will NOT open the floodgates. Their move of 2 months to test waters tells us that they will move dates in a very controlled manner. So bummer for the people waiting to file. Sorry guys. I wish I am wrong on this one.

Q,
Either that or they are using 12k between May and June (assume dates will move 2 more months in June VB) and test the water before applying SOFAD!

[qesehmk]

Oh yeah. Agree. So what you are saying is ... the 12K is there and will be utilized on whatever porting is there for Jun/Jul. So assuming there is no quantum jump... almost all of that 12K remains intact (less 3K inventory for the two additional months).

Thanks veni. Good point. So here is how it works

12K = 3K + porting (P) + L (leftover of 12K)
where USCIS is trying to guage how big P & K are and accordingly will set dates in Jun / Jul / Aug.

Q,
Either that or they are using 12k between May and June (assume dates will move 2 more months in June VB) and test the water before applying SOFAD!

[veni001]

Oh yeah. Agree. So what you are saying is ... the 12K is there and will be utilized on whatever porting is there for Jun/Jul. So assuming there is no quantum jump... almost all of that 12K remains intact (less 3K inventory for the two additional months).

Thanks veni. Good point. So here is how it works

12K = 3K + porting (P) + L (leftover of 12K)
where USCIS is trying to guage how big P & K are and accordingly will set dates in Jun / Jul / Aug.

Q,
Yes, i think we will have better picture once USCIS update inventory data next week( let's hope) and DOS update demand data for June, next month!

[shaumack]

Q,
Yes, i think we will have better picture once USCIS update inventory data next week( let's hope) and DOS update demand data for June, next month!

Hi Q, Veni and others, do you guys agree with this analysis below that EB2-India and China dates will not progress in June and may be also July but will only move in August and September. Also do you think that there is big room for visa numbers to go wasted this fiscal year due to conservative movement in May Visa Bulletin? If so how is it going to affect SOFAD.

Once again great work in analyzing data and keeping us posted.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...-movement.html

[veni001]

Hi Q, Veni and others, do you guys agree with this analysis below that EB2-India and China dates will not progress in June and may be also July but will only move in August and September. Also do you think that there is big room for visa numbers to go wasted this fiscal year due to conservative movement in May Visa Bulletin? If so how is it going to affect SOFAD.

Once again great work in analyzing data and keeping us posted.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...-movement.html

Shumack,
It looks like DOS/USCIS want to play safe until last quarter, so we may not see any sudden jumps in PD movement in coming months. I am not convinced with the EB3-EB2 porting references, unless half of INDIA PERM approvals are porting cases(chances are very less) from last two quarters.

One more time PERM certification data for Q4 FY2010 and Q1FY2011
2010(July-Aug-Sept)
IND - 7,617
CH- 606
M&P - 1,307
ROW -5,760
Total(EB2&3):15,290

2010(Oct-Nov-Dec)

IND - 9,299
CH- 1,004
M&P - 1,456
ROW -6,596
Total(EB2&3):18,355

and I-140 completions( all EB, all countries) from October 2010 till January 2011 is 23,117 only. I don't think the porting application will suddenly comes out of Blue

[qesehmk]

Shumack

I agree w Veni. In addition to what he (sorry if wrong :-) ) said, I would also add following: Since the preadj number is so high, the chance that any visas will be wasted is ZERO.

Hi Q, Veni and others, do you guys agree with this analysis below that EB2-India and China dates will not progress in June and may be also July but will only move in August and September. Also do you think that there is big room for visa numbers to go wasted this fiscal year due to conservative movement in May Visa Bulletin? If so how is it going to affect SOFAD.

Once again great work in analyzing data and keeping us posted.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...-movement.html