EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

Guys I will update header based on Spec's suggestions by evening. Thanks a ton to him for his suggestions.

Meanwhile, just now receievd an update from one of our source into USCIS reconfirming that most of pre-may-06 is cleared and EB2I is getting about 300 per month! Also another reconfirmation of what we have been saying that there is no Qly spillover for EB2IC. So those w PDs in July-august 06, should plan for 9 months of wait instead of hoping to get a GC immediately.

[operas]

Thanks for your analysis Q!

[seand]

Glad to be a member here... don't forget the EB ROW folks

[leo07]

Friends do you last year which was the demand data that showed the EB numbers table updated to show FB, it could be a case that this table is still being computed and while its WIP they reset it back to the regular annual thresholds.

TK, FB spill over was evident right from August 28 2009 inventory data. So, I think, it's very much safe to exclude the FB spill over from analysis.
On another point, did you guys notice the increase in demand in EB1 & EB2 ROW from 2009 ( and corresponding drop in EB3)?

I know both could have a deep impact on our dates.

[TeddyKoochu]

TK, FB spill over was evident right from August 28 2009 inventory data. So, I think, it's very much safe to exclude the FB spill over from analysis.
On another point, did you guys notice the increase in demand in EB1 & EB2 ROW from 2009 ( and corresponding drop in EB3)?

I know both could have a deep impact on our dates.

I agree with you on FB, it is just hoping against hope for now, we should assume its not there. The rise in cases for 2009 I believe can be attributed to reasons a) For EB1 & EB2 ROW cases the I140 approvals are still taking time, most of the people find non-concurrent filing safer. b) Looks like everybody is now filing in EB2 c) Reduction in EB3 could indicate porting or withdrawal (Withdrawal is more common amongst ROW). Also I believe that a good number of cases may belong to people from countries of interest. Some of the 2009 cases I also believe are either denial with MTR filed or with complicated RFE's because the approval timeline really is 4 months. All the old inventories also seem to show figures in the same range, however we should not assume that all of them will lead to approvals probably 70-80% only IMHO.

[qesehmk]

Spec you are a good pain Thanks. I updated header based on your inputs. Also revised EB1 new demand in 2011. It seems Mexico is a good consumer of EB1 visas.

Q,

Sorry to be a pain.

I have poured over your spreadsheet and have found a few minor errors:

Thanks for your analysis Q!

You are welcome!

Glad to be a member here... don't forget the EB ROW folks

We won't ... but in case you are looking for EB3 ROW then you are on wrong thread!! You should look at "EB3 Predictions and Calculations". For EB2 ROW is current and so not much needs to be said. Welcome nonetheless!

[leo07]

I agree that all of them will not lead to approvals. Nevertheless it's a increase in demand by 0.7 * X or 0.8 X or decrease in SOFAD by the same amount. ( other factors remaining constant)

I agree with you on FB, it is just hoping against hope for now, we should assume its not there. The rise in cases for 2009 I believe can be attributed to reasons a) For EB1 & EB2 ROW cases the I140 approvals are still taking time, most of the people find non-concurrent filing safer. b) Looks like everybody is now filing in EB2 c) Reduction in EB3 could indicate porting or withdrawal (Withdrawal is more common amongst ROW). Also I believe that a good number of cases may belong to people from countries of interest. Some of the 2009 cases I also believe are either denial with MTR filed or with complicated RFE's because the approval timeline really is 4 months. All the old inventories also seem to show figures in the same range, however we should not assume that all of them will lead to approvals probably 70-80% only IMHO.

[TeddyKoochu]

I agree that all of them will not lead to approvals. Nevertheless it's a increase in demand by 0.7 * X or 0.8 X or decrease in SOFAD by the same amount. ( other factors remaining constant)

I agree with you we should consider say .75X of each of these as starting demand or backlog, on the face values these figures do look high.

[TeddyKoochu]

Source The OH law firm
The Oh Law Firm (http://www.immigration-law.com/)

Read - 10/14/2010: USCIS Pre-Registration Requirement Rule-Making Agenda in Nonimmigrant and Immigrant Proceedings - How Soon?

This provision can help those of us waiting to file for 485 (Probably we may get EAD/AP also), it also helps the agencies to define the pipeline and predict the demand better. It is good provision for EB2 Retrogressed Countries. Don’t bank on this provision friends because the news on this provision has been circulating for atleast a year, we can just hope that it will be implemented.

[Spectator]

Spec you are a good pain Thanks. I updated header based on your inputs.

Q,

Great job with the spreadsheet!

I think it really delivers the information.

One tiny point - shouldn't IC Consumption (SOFAD) for EB4 be 3,329 rather than 888?

I just wanted to say what a good job you have done.

[qesehmk]

Q,

Great job with the spreadsheet!

I think it really delivers the information.

One tiny point - shouldn't IC Consumption (SOFAD) for EB4 be 3,329 rather than 888?

I just wanted to say what a good job you have done.

Spec thanks. In EB4 there are other countries that are getting benefited because of spare visas.

[leo07]

Thanks for the calculations. Looks like it'll reach April-May 2007 for EB2-I/C safely. ( anything more will be a buffer from CIS or some other unknown factors coming into play)

Q, can you also post your predictions on the first page? ( not sure if you omitted that on purpose)

[qesehmk]

Thanks for the calculations. Looks like it'll reach April-May 2007 for EB2-I/C safely. ( anything more will be a buffer from CIS or some other unknown factors coming into play)

Q, can you also post your predictions on the first page? ( not sure if you omitted that on purpose)

Leo, I have included prediction in the header (first page of thread). So not sure why you can't see it. 27K SOFAD is applicable to 485+CP inventory. Right now I have assumed CP inventory of about 6-7K which is why 27K SOFAD can only take us through Feb 07. Makes sense?

[leo07]

my bad. I did not read the summary. I was expecting to see a section "EB2 Prediction: Feb 2007 by September 2011"

[TeddyKoochu]

Leo, I have included prediction in the header (first page of thread). So not sure why you can't see it. 27K SOFAD is applicable to 485+CP inventory. Right now I have assumed CP inventory of about 6-7K which is why 27K SOFAD can only take us through Feb 07. Makes sense?

Q, I believe that the CP assumption is very high, 6-7K is almost 20% of the inventory. I believe the CP would be only 10% max of the inventory as very few companies are going for the future job offer thing Iam sure strictest scrutiny is happening for these cases especially at home country. Last year when the CP was being calculated I remember VIN13 had shown the CP for EB2 in some document as 2K only and assuming some of the folks got approved EB2 I/C CP should be 1.5K max closer to 5% which seems more realistic. The extra numbers may aid the movement by 2 months. Please advise if this seems ok to you.

On another note just checked the inventory prior to Jan 2007 is 14445 + 5690 ~ 20K. If you assume 20K goes towards inventory reduction assuming 7K CP then in absolute terms it just takes us till 01-JAN-2007. However there will be atleast 4K porting, so it may even be hard to clear 2006 with this SOFAD.

[Spectator]

Spec thanks. In EB4 there are other countries that are getting benefited because of spare visas.

Sorry, I wasn't thinking very clearly at the time.

My bad this time.

I understand the derivation now as the sum of backlog + demand for IC, a figure that doesn't even reach the quota. That last point caused me to jump to conclusions, rather than properly analyzing what the figure really meant.

Sorry about that.

[qesehmk]

my bad. I did not read the summary. I was expecting to see a section "EB2 Prediction: Feb 2007 by September 2011"

Actually thanks. I made a minor update to the header so that people can immediate get it!

Q, I believe that the CP assumption is very high, 6-7K is almost 20% of the inventory. I believe the CP would be only 10% max of the inventory as very few companies are going for the future job offer thing Iam sure strictest scrutiny is happening for these cases especially at home country. Last year when the CP was being calculated I remember VIN13 had shown the CP for EB2 in some document as 2K only and assuming some of the folks got approved EB2 I/C CP should be 1.5K max closer to 5% which seems more realistic. The extra numbers may aid the movement by 2 months. Please advise if this seems ok to you.

On another note just checked the inventory prior to Jan 2007 is 14445 + 5690 ~ 20K. If you assume 20K goes towards inventory reduction assuming 7K CP then in absolute terms it just takes us till 01-JAN-2007. However there will be atleast 4K porting, so it may even be hard to clear 2006 with this SOFAD.

Teddy you don't have to estimate CP. It is provided as part of NVC inventory. Are you aware of NVC?
6-7K I used was from last year's inventory. Its possible that it has gone down. But since latest NVC inventory is not published I am using 2009 one. If anything this makes our estimates conservative. USCIS has said it previously that CP is typically 15% of total adjustments.

Sorry, I wasn't thinking very clearly at the time.

My bad this time.

I understand the derivation now as the sum of backlog + demand for IC, a figure that doesn't even reach the quota. That last point caused me to jump to conclusions, rather than properly analyzing what the figure really meant.

Sorry about that.

Take it easy!! The objective of forum is to bring clarity - so as long as we are doing that .... none of us needs to be sorry.

[qesehmk]

CLICK HERE FOR NVC INVENTORY REPORT - Look for Annual visa waiting list.
This report is published in Nov 09. So not entirely valid. But still useful.

Please note the inventory I have published at the top of the threader assumes 485 + CP + PWMB + Portings.

CP inventory follows the same timeline as 485 since visa dates are same for both. Hope this helps!

Q if you have a link of the NVC inventory for last year request you to post it. Does the NVC inventory just like the 485 inventory cases till 2007 only then we can assume that 40% is done and 60% is left. Also what component is EB2. If we have say 6K CP inventory just for EB2 then it makes the situation quite bad. I will try to search for what VIN13 had said. I agree with you that it makes the prediction conservative.

On another note just checked the inventory prior to Jan 2007 is 14445 + 5690 ~ 20K. If you assume 20K goes towards inventory reduction assuming 7K CP then in absolute terms it just takes us till 01-JAN-2007. However there will be atleast 4K porting, so it may even be hard to clear 2006 with this SOFAD.

[tarz1309]

Q,

Let me ask this upfront, I kind a get lost in the data, My PD is last week of June 2006, EB2-India, When can I expect my GC? Last quarter of 2010 or 1st quarter of 2011 or later?

[qesehmk]

Spec, thanks again. This is helpful. Before we try to change the model lets see what Teddy think? Teddy?

[qesehmk]

Q,

Let me ask this upfront, I kind a get lost in the data, My PD is last week of June 2006, EB2-India, When can I expect my GC? Last quarter of 2010 or 1st quarter of 2011 or later?

Most likely Q2 2011. The reason being USCIS doesn't apply Qly spillover. Plus there are 2-3K people ahead of you enough to consume 3Q of EB2I quota.

[TeddyKoochu]

Spec, thanks again. This is helpful. Before we try to change the model lets see what Teddy think? Teddy?

I read the latest murthy bulletin this confirms that the I485 inventory is still just the 485 inventory only. My suggestion would be to keep things simple let’s assume a factor of 500 something like a spread factor as these cases are spread over time this should include a) New PD porting wherein the date is current b) NVC and district office demand. By budgeting 500 PM we are adding 6K per annum to the inventory. This IMHO should be fine. Refer post # 11, I had used the same factor their but at that time it was just an assumption now there is some credible evidence atleast in the form of numbers. I think by this factor the prediction still stays reasonably conservative. Q / Spec if I understand correctly this saves us some numbers so maybe could help to move the dates forward by an extra month. I still believe that the effective magnitude of CP for EB2 I/C are well within 5% of the individual inventories. Please comment / critique. I had seen a poll on IV for the 2010 last quarter approvals and 4 out of 400 cases were CP or Local Office.

Q I matched post # 11 which I intend to recompute with the Oct inventory to your predictions its a good match. I believe that EB1 may hold the real key this year, the EB2 ROW trend is predictable but I notice very steady approvals from them on Trackitt.

[Spectator]

My suggestion would be to keep things simple let's assume a factor of 500 something like a spread factor as these cases are spread over time this should include a) New PD porting wherein the date is current b) NVC and district office demand. By budgeting 500 PM we are adding 6K per annum to the inventory.

Teddy,

There are also new applications from dependants to factor in, but I have no doubt such an approach would work for new demand - for EB2.

It won't work for EB3 because individual Countries have wildly varying CP rates (Mexico at the low end and China/Philippines at the high end.

Even with EB2, Q needs to use a CP figure to derive what the initial backlog is. This affects EB1 for instance, where India has a CP rate 3 times less than most other Countries.

I think, if Q is going to do both EB2 & EB3 predictions, he needs to use a consistent method to derive the CP element.

My thoughts anyway.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

There are also new applications from dependants to factor in, but I have no doubt such an approach would work for new demand - for EB2.

It won't work for EB3 because individual Countries have wildly varying CP rates (Mexico at the low end and China/Philippines at the high end.

Even with EB2, Q needs to use a CP figure to derive what the initial backlog is. This affects EB1 for instance, where India has a CP rate 3 times less than most other Countries.

I think, if Q is going to do both EB2 & EB3 predictions, he needs to use a consistent method to derive the CP element.

My thoughts anyway.

I agree with you that this is an EB2 approach only. For EB3 detailed analysis is required and the data break down is a must.

[qesehmk]

Friends, I have been off for quite long. Sorry about that. Some other commitments....

As promised I utilized Spec's inputs regarding CP to recast our model. The HEAD of the thread is updated now.

Those who are not clear what we are talking here - our initial model assumed that all of CP / NVC inventory pertains to 485 dates that are current. However this is not true, since CP can be filed anytime and the date doesn't have to be current. This means a lot of the CP inventory especially for backlogged countries pertains to dates that are yet to be current. Spec did a good job in identifying the %CP cases for recent years. I have used 2009 ratios as they are the most relevant.

Spec regarding your observation about IVAMS data ... pls remember it excludes backlogged countries. So the data is not quite useful.

Teddy

Q,

It is significant and can't be ignored - I totally agree.

We have KNOWN data for previous years. It can be calculated for EB1, EB4 & EB5 by Group as I have already shown for EB2 and EB3.

....

Previous Year Visa Reports

FY2009[/B][/U]
All EB1 - 3.7% (1,524 of 40,976)
China - 3.5% (175 of 4,999)
India - 1.2% (83 of 6,672)
Mexico - 3.5% (70 of 2,010)
Philippines - 5.9% (31 of 524)
ROW - 4.4% (1,165 of 26771)


EB2

Previous Year Visa Reports

FY2009
All EB2 - 2.7%
China - 1.2%
India - 0.7%
Mexico - 2.0%
Philippines - 6.2%
ROW - 2.3%


EB3

Previous Year Visa Reports

FY2009
All EB3 - 16.0%
China - 27.0%
India - 13.6%
Mexico - 5.4%
Philippines - 33.8%
ROW - 13.8%

....I still believe that the effective magnitude of CP for EB2 I/C are well within 5% of the individual inventories. ....

Teddy agree. However I used calculated % for backlogged categories and real % for current categories.