EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[bieber]

red2green

that explains the recent approval surge, thanks

[nishant2200]

Veni & other Gurus,

I was going through this pdf(THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM) on USCIS website and can you please help me understand the below statement applies for the current scenario.


The American Competitiveness in the Twenty-First Century Act (AC21) removed the per-country limit in any calendar quarter in which overall applicant demand for Employment-based visa numbers is less than the total of such numbers available.

This line coupled with the no more than 30% of total categories allocation in the first three quarters is what drives QSP.

If you see the DD, it shows EB2 allocation for year is 40,040. 30% of that is: 12,012, similarly for EB1, EB4, EB5 etc. Note EB4 and EB5 only have 9,940 total for year, so 30% of that is less.

Per country limit is 7%, EB2 India is limited to 2,803.

But if in the quarter, the demand from categories which can be spilled over onto EB2 India is deemed less than total of the max allowable in the quarter 30% minus normal India's allocation, for each such category, then we can be assigned those numbers from those categories.

[rockybaba]

Demand data out http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Curious to know if the sun rise in the west, where you woke up?

[rockybaba]

Guess my first post did not add much value :-(

Sure did...brought a big grin to my face. We need some ice-breakers while we await the VB avec a lot of tension!!

[winsomelad]

According to analysis from Guru's and Geeks. The prediction for this bulletin is either

Mar -2008 (100%)
June -2008 (80%)
Oct - 2008 (50%)

With in 2 hrs, we will be going to get the Visa Bulletin.

[qesehmk]

Friends,

I just want all of us to take a pause and seriously consider some of the core principles of our forum:

1. Freedom of speech
2. Attack ideas/opinions BUT never a person
3. Contribute to bring clarity to GC process
4. Empathize with All immigrant groups


So please consider these four principles that have made this forum successful. We have very tolerant. However whenever members have violated especially #1, #2 we haven't been tolerant of that. So please ensure that the spirit of this forum is kept alive.

Contribute to it. Benefit from it. Post freely. Let others post freely.

I thank you all for your interest in this forum and your contributions to this forum.

p.s. - I have closed the thread for now to ensure sufficient people see and read this. Will open the thread tomorrow 9 am EDT.

[nishant2200]

Guys had to put this, even on closed thread. I think Q will forgive me and not fire me from admin/moderator position.

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

EB2 India 15th March 2008

[qesehmk]

Congratulations!!! Terrific news for a ton of people.

Lets cross fingers for the actual bullletin to come out. But 99% it will be in line w Mumbai one.

This is a bad time to keep the thread closed Its all yours now.

Guys had to put this, even on closed thread. I think Q will forgive me and not fire me from admin/moderator position.

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

EB2 India 15th March 2008

[grnwtg]

Hopefull this is true as Mumbai is not always correct.
Anyway as I and QBF were always telling, it will be stupidity on part of CO if he does not move dates atleast april'2008. Let us hope for good luck that it will be true.
Nishant and several other people like are waiting for this from last 10 years.
I currently dont have any reaction as i want to see news from uscis bulletin.

Guys had to put this, even on closed thread. I think Q will forgive me and not fire me from admin/moderator position.

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

EB2 India 15th March 2008

[imdeng]

Congratulations! Nishant, QBF - hope you guys will continue contributing. QBF - you have shared your personal situation before and we are aware of the tough road you have traveled. Its great that the end is in sight for you.

Gurus: Considering that we went above and beyond the expectations, could it be that the incoming demand density post 07/07 is lower than feared? Could it be that the Demand Destruction that has been rumored is true and significant??

Q: Really bad timing to lock down the thread. Some like minded folks ended up expressing their delight in one of the other threads. :-)

PS> I came back to US last night. Immigration at ORD was a breeze. Stupid 40lbs per person baggage limit sucks hard especially when your Mom insists on sending big dabbas of achar!

[geevikram]

Teddy/Q/Veni,
Now that the dates have progressed to Mar'08 as expected, do you guys foresee any potential retrogression? Is this real movement or a TBM to fill up their pipeline?

Bit worried as I'm close --Jul'08.

-Vik

[Pdmar08]

CONGRATULATIONS ALL

11/01/07 - romanitaly
11/08/07 - Nishant2200
11/09/07 - gcseeker
11/15/07 - srd4GC
11/21/07 - KPT112107
12/04/07 - Eb2_Dec07
12/12/07 - Reader
12/13/07 - Dec13th2007
12/19/07 - teja9999
12/19/07 - arikepudi
12/19/07 - Jitesh
01/10/08 - FamilyGuy
01/10/08 - ravisekhar
01/15/08 - indiasunil
01/29/08 - cbpds1
02/01/08 - Gclongwait
02/07/08- Nabrika
02/08/08 -meso129
02/22/08 - ggk189
03/07/08 - polapragada
03/11/08 - grnwtg
03/14/08 - vwsb310

TO BECOME CURRENT

Was awake due to ject lag at 3 am pst not sure why i went to mumbai consulate site, didnt find nov 1 2007 realised these are new dates, thought of cposting on forum, realised q has closed it, came anyway, saw nishant had posted it already.

The elephant has gone , the tail has gone and i m saved by a hair,
03/13/08 - PDMar08

Can some one point me to a good post or thread about medicals i know nothing, have nothing and m trying not to freak out, i know we have up to 31dec2011 (atleast) to file but its holiday time.

Let the mayhem begin.

[vchirakala]

I feel that the fee sent for CP till June 2008 might be true. I think the dates will go till Jul 1st 2008 and after that may stop for sometime.

[grnwtg]

Hopefully these dates are correct, then from what CO said there should be good moment in next bulletin also ( looking at CO's words i guess it might go atleast till May - July'08 ).
As expected Demand data went to almost zero from 8000 from last 2 periods, this is might be a error correction as mentioned by CO.
Hope for the best.

Congrats to the Currentlok. Y

SaturnRing, we're on next. Put on your pads, thing guard and ball guard.

03/26/08 - Saturnring
04/03/08 - yesman
04/08/08 - venkimakthal
04/18/08 - VChirakala
04/23/08 - Vissi (vishwanathkvs?)
04/25/08 - Pedro Gonzales
04/30/08 - Makmohan
05/19/08 - shreyasai2004
05/28/08 - zombie

[Pedro Gonzales]

I feel that the fee sent for CP till June 2008 might be true. I think the dates will go till Jul 1st 2008 and after that may stop for sometime.

Congratulations to those who are current . I guess wherever they draw the line, there will be people on the other side. I missed the date by couple of weeks

Gurus, do you still believe the dates will move further in Jan bulletin ? whats your take ?

I think the Gurus have been unanimous in their opinion that the movement we are seeing is to generate inventory only, and not everyone here will receive their GCs this year. The dates may move forward further in Jan and Feb, but will almost certainly retrogress to some point in early 2008. There is disagreement amongst the Gurus as to what that retrogression date may be.

The variables include, a) EB1 and EB2ROW (the Gurus are unanimous in the expectation that it will be lower this year), b) Porting (disagreement in what the level is, but the Gurus are unanimous that it will be constant from last year), and c) demand destruction due to the recession (no consensus here but the Gurus are more conservative in general than aam public).

I don't mean to be a naysayer, but with my Apr 25, 2008 PD, I fully expect to submit my I485 this year and receive my EAD, but I do not expect my GC until the FY2013 spill over starts. If that's Quarterly spill over, I'll get it by Dec 2012, if its annual, it won't be until June 2013. But I still remain hopeful that HR3012 will help.

[vizcard]

The movement in Nov & Dec has been the same as June & July in terms of # of days. Lets hope against hope that Jan and Feb are also the same.

[gc_usa]

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5603.html

[vizcard]

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5603.html

No additional notes or comments in the bulletin ... not sure what to make of that.

[nishant2200]

Hello, thanks to all those who wished me as well as all who are current. My best wishes and big thumbs up to all current.

The official VB is out, I was kind of still nervous until it came out, so it comes out and confirms it.

I was really wanting to see comments by CO in the VB, but he did not put any. Last year in Dec bulletin, once he had done his strategy of intake for F2A category, he knew what's coming up and had clearly mentioned as comments that retrogression may happen as early as January i.e. the next bulletin. He did not put it for us in Dec Bulletin of this year whilst following similar intake mode so far. No news is good news sometimes.

Hence following observations, this time from non conservative and brighter side of things:
a. As posted by me on first page, first post from me, I do see dates reaching May - June 2008 somewhere in this FY to support the NVC theory. It is CO's office who would intimate the NVC about date movement guidance.
b. The demand density should be around 2.5k, not 3k as we feared, and NIW is not that huge a menace it seems.
c. The porting is around 3k a year maximum.
d. People who go for CP may end up getting GCs upto 6-8 months earlier than AOS applicants.
e. If QSP continues throughout the year in some capacity, dates will end up at a higher spectrum for GC issuance, if QSP is not done at some stage, and wait for annual SO, dates will move less, because USCIS will catch up with their EB1 and EB2ROW backlog. Already on trackitt, at least EB1 (A and B) are raising concerns that they are being neglected. (btw, you cant call about your 485 to service inquiry or congress until you are past the processing time advertised by the service center, an FYI from what I thought it is and confirmed by reading the rant threads by the EB1 folks).
d. Depending on how much buffer CO is left with to start FY 2013, we might see similar Q1 QSP intake mode, we might see a one month BTM (highly unlikely), we might see a late Q3-Q4 move (Kanmani proposed few posts back).
e. CO wants to avoid retrogression I feel, but looking at his aggressive movements, some degree of retrogression will happen even with QSP. With QSP the retrogression will be less severe, if QSP stops, it will be more severe (August 2007) and advance only in late Q3 - Q4 from there.
f. Actual GC issuance, again as I have put on first page first post, I believe somewhere in December 2007 to January 2008 borderline, and this dates may improve if CO continues QSP and USCIS remains inefficient in processing EB1 and EB2ROW (more so EB1 is difficult to process because of Kazarian, EB2 ROW should be similar to ours, I feel EB2 ROW demand might have dropped to some degree, I don't see many whining from EB2 ROW folks on trackitt, but do see from EB1 A and EB1 B).
g. CO's next move coupled with the next I-485 inventory and shaping of demand data in subsequent bulletins shall lead to further refining of above observations.

[TheTexan]

I wonder as to why CO did not put any comments. Would it be fair to assume that he plans to move the dates forward in next 2 bulletins? My pd is July 2008 so wondering what to expect. Nishant, thanks for your analysis of dec bulletin.

[vizcard]

Hello, thanks to all those who wished me as well as all who are current. My best wishes and big thumbs up to all current.

The official VB is out, I was kind of still nervous until it came out, so it comes out and confirms it.

I was really wanting to see comments by CO in the VB, but he did not put any. Last year in Dec bulletin, once he had done his strategy of intake for F2A category, he knew what's coming up and had clearly mentioned as comments that retrogression may happen as early as January i.e. the next bulletin. He did not put it for us in Dec Bulletin of this year whilst following similar intake mode so far. No news is good news sometimes.

Hence following observations, this time from non conservative and brighter side of things:
a. As posted by me on first page, first post from me, I do see dates reaching May - June 2008 somewhere in this FY to support the NVC theory. It is CO's office who would intimate the NVC about date movement guidance.
b. The demand density should be around 2.5k, not 3k as we feared, and NIW is not that huge a menace it seems.
c. The porting is around 3k a year maximum.
d. People who go for CP may end up getting GCs upto 6-8 months earlier than AOS applicants.
e. If QSP continues throughout the year in some capacity, dates will end up at a higher spectrum for GC issuance, if QSP is not done at some stage, and wait for annual SO, dates will move less, because USCIS will catch up with their EB1 and EB2ROW backlog. Already on trackitt, at least EB1 (A and B) are raising concerns that they are being neglected. (btw, you cant call about your 485 to service inquiry or congress until you are past the processing time advertised by the service center, an FYI from what I thought it is and confirmed by reading the rant threads by the EB1 folks).
d. Depending on how much buffer CO is left with to start FY 2013, we might see similar Q1 QSP intake mode, we might see a one month BTM (highly unlikely), we might see a late Q3-Q4 move (Kanmani proposed few posts back).
e. CO wants to avoid retrogression I feel, but looking at his aggressive movements, some degree of retrogression will happen even with QSP. With QSP the retrogression will be less severe, if QSP stops, it will be more severe (August 2007) and advance only in late Q3 - Q4 from there.
f. Actual GC issuance, again as I have put on first page first post, I believe somewhere in December 2007 to January 2008 borderline, and this dates may improve if CO continues QSP and USCIS remains inefficient in processing EB1 and EB2ROW (more so EB1 is difficult to process because of Kazarian, EB2 ROW should be similar to ours, I feel EB2 ROW demand might have dropped to some degree, I don't see many whining from EB2 ROW folks on trackitt, but do see from EB1 A and EB1 B).
g. CO's next move coupled with the next I-485 inventory and shaping of demand data in subsequent bulletins shall lead to further refining of above observations.

Your SECOND (d) is what bothers me....

[TheTexan]

Sent you an email..

[username]

pdmarch282008 and others

Add your PD here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...rent-yet/page3

What about including previous month PDs. Teddy and many got current previous month.

[Nishant_imt]

People,

I know everyone is looking at VB and this is not the right forum to discuss personal immigration issues, but nobody goes to the other thread and hence i have to post my question here.

My greencard was filed in Richmond VA by my consulting firm. At that time, they had a branch office from which they filed the greencard. 2 years later, i moved to another state on a different project. My company lost its primary vendorship in Richmond and hence shut down its Branch office there. I talked with Lawyer today and she confirmed that the greencard processing has to be filed again. So here are my questions:

1) Can I recapture my PD? how long do i have, to recapture my PD if the processing starts again.
2) Do I need to be in Richmond again to capture my PD? I mean the job again has to be in Richmond whether or not with the same consulting firm?
3) If I change job and go to any other state, can i still capture my PD?
4) If the new organization i join, files my greencard only after a year (which most of the organizations do) would i still be able to recapture my PD?
5) i am already in my 7th year of H1B, the last time i got an extension of 1 year based on my labor (I-140 came 2 days after filing H1B), so now if i change companies, would they be able to get 3 years extension for my H1B based on I-140 that was for Richmond Job?

Thanks in advance for any of your replies. I am really in a depressed state at this time. I would appreciate any word of consolation.

[pdmay2008]

I wonder as to why CO did not put any comments. Would it be fair to assume that he plans to move the dates forward in next 2 bulletins? My pd is July 2008 so wondering what to expect. Nishant, thanks for your analysis of dec bulletin.

CO did not give any comments in this bulletin. I think he is going to stand on his words that he communicated before.

Here is the info from Murthy article posted before.

EB2 India and China: More Movement Likely in January and February

In addition to the predictions for December 2011, the DOS also anticipates similar levels of advancement during January and February 2012. No specific cutoff dates were given as predictions for these months. The reason for this advancement, as explained in previous MurthyBulletin articles, is that the prior movement of EB2 cutoff dates has allowed for the approval of the vast majority of pending EB2 I-485 cases. Thus, since I-485 cases take approximately four to six months for U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) processing, the DOS has to move the cutoff dates forward to allow for enough I-485 filings to fill the (largely empty) pipeline of cases. This has to be done far enough in advance of the end of FY12 (September 30) for cases to be approved before the end of the fiscal year. Otherwise, if there are not enough cases ready for approval, the visa numbers could go unused.