EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[kd2008]

Nishant, more than that CO is gauging the dependent demand. Even if you have a count of folks who might apply based on approved I-140, the dependent count is always difficult to guess. We can use a multiplier of 2.04 but CO cannot. So he will wait it out as far as he can to get a good count on the dependent load which will help him immensely going forward. I think he wants to be as accurate as possible and avoid retrogression in future.

[leo07]

Eb2_Dec07,

Technically this is not a delay at all. It's still 8th of the month. Even if it were to be released today, it's still an early release.
Hang in there. you will definitely hear good news.
Best!

This delay is giving a reason for concern . I hope the move is as predicted by CO and really hope he keeps his word .
Gurus if he is taking long to ponder the movement this bulletin , it is definitely not a very good sign for the following months.
Also , with in my friends network a lot of people i know have initiated eb3 to eb2 porting through other consulting companies . their eb3 dates are in the range between 2005 thr 2007. Not sure how big of an impact porting will have .

[suninphx]

Eb2_Dec07,

Technically this is not a delay at all. It's still 8th of the month. Even if it were to be released today, it's still an early release.
Hang in there. you will definitely hear good news.
Best!

Yes- I agree.

Delay may also mean that this VB dates will remain current for coming month.

[nishant2200]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immi...ation%20of.pdf

I read this several times. It is perfectly clear to me looking at the bunch load of approvals, CO has already made the visa allotment for the month, he is now only waiting to decide the cut off for EB2IC it seems.

Hi,

I have seen the following approvals in trackitt.
Doesn't it mean the PD will more than expected?

rakesh76: 07/19/2007, NSC, ------------------Approved
dxg1739 : 07/26/2007, NSC, -----------------Approved
Babugc: 07/28/2007, EB2, NSC, -----------------Approved

[nishant2200]

Yes, very possible. I agree.

Nishant, more than that CO is gauging the dependent demand. Even if you have a count of folks who might apply based on approved I-140, the dependent count is always difficult to guess. We can use a multiplier of 2.04 but CO cannot. So he will wait it out as far as he can to get a good count on the dependent load which will help him immensely going forward. I think he wants to be as accurate as possible and avoid retrogression in future.

[Jan2008]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immi...ation%20of.pdf

I read this several times. It is perfectly clear to me looking at the bunch load of approvals, CO has already made the visa allotment for the month, he is now only waiting to decide the cut off for EB2IC it seems.

Nishant bhai,

The VB has to come out today or max tomorro. Friday (11th) is Veterans day (fed holiday) and hence they cannot release anything on that day.. Its definitely either today or tomm. for sure.. You will get current and I pray so does QBF bhai

[nishant2200]

Nishant bhai,

The VB has to come out today or max tomorro. Friday (11th) is Veterans day (fed holiday) and hence they cannot release anything on that day.. Its definitely either today or tomm. for sure.. You will get current and I pray so does QBF bhai

Friend, today is tuesday, so we have wednesday and thursday also.

Positively speaking, he might be waiting so that he can extend even more than march 1st 2008, which he might be thinking a minimum. How much more he wants to think based on incoming application count or dependent factor. In fact the dependent factor sounds very plausible, theory by kd2008. You cant extrapolate incoming count that easily from few days, but dependent factor more reasonably.

The coming soon on the 1st of the month itself, cannot be relied on though. This is a bitter lesson I learnt.

[pdmay2008]

Nishant bhai,

The VB has to come out today or max tomorro. Friday (11th) is Veterans day (fed holiday) and hence they cannot release anything on that day.. Its definitely either today or tomm. for sure.. You will get current and I pray so does QBF bhai

Q any info from your source. I know I am not going to be current this month. I sincerely pray QBF gets current this month.

[cbpds1]

so does that mean he did not guage demand for Nov bulletin when he released it on the 5th?

Nishant, more than that CO is gauging the dependent demand. Even if you have a count of folks who might apply based on approved I-140, the dependent count is always difficult to guess. We can use a multiplier of 2.04 but CO cannot. So he will wait it out as far as he can to get a good count on the dependent load which will help him immensely going forward. I think he wants to be as accurate as possible and avoid retrogression in future.

[nishant2200]

I asked CM on http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...mber-2011.html and he replied, very good guy , always replies to such questions. his lawyer has been quite reliable in the recent past.

CM, if ever there was a time to know when the VB might be released, it this one please can your lawyer friend have some idea when he thinks VB may be released. of course its always with grain of salt, but begging to know if he has any idea at all, it would be very helpful.


CM_USNonImmigrants
Talked to him. He has no information on it but he believes it will be Thursday as DOS mentioned about getting some information on filings from last 2 bulletins before making any move.

Personally I do not know how they plan to figure this out. May be from number of incoming applications and all, but to segregate to specifics to EB2-IC level, it needs some intensive labor.

[sha_kus]

Personally I feel all the attorneys should file as little cases as possible in the 1st 10 Days so that CO hits a Panic button... Just a Dream...

I asked CM on http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...mber-2011.html and he replied, very good guy , always replies to such questions. his lawyer has been quite reliable in the recent past.

CM, if ever there was a time to know when the VB might be released, it this one please can your lawyer friend have some idea when he thinks VB may be released. of course its always with grain of salt, but begging to know if he has any idea at all, it would be very helpful.


CM_USNonImmigrants
Talked to him. He has no information on it but he believes it will be Thursday as DOS mentioned about getting some information on filings from last 2 bulletins before making any move.

Personally I do not know how they plan to figure this out. May be from number of incoming applications and all, but to segregate to specifics to EB2-IC level, it needs some intensive labor.

[TeddyKoochu]

I asked CM on http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...mber-2011.html and he replied, very good guy , always replies to such questions. his lawyer has been quite reliable in the recent past.

CM, if ever there was a time to know when the VB might be released, it this one please can your lawyer friend have some idea when he thinks VB may be released. of course its always with grain of salt, but begging to know if he has any idea at all, it would be very helpful.


CM_USNonImmigrants
Talked to him. He has no information on it but he believes it will be Thursday as DOS mentioned about getting some information on filings from last 2 bulletins before making any move.

Personally I do not know how they plan to figure this out. May be from number of incoming applications and all, but to segregate to specifics to EB2-IC level, it needs some intensive labor.

AFAIK the lock box centers are now doing all the spadework.
- They would create receipts.
- Scan all contents and forward to the service centers.
- Encash the cheques.
Last month everyone seems to have received receipts within a week, this time the cheque enacshing or receipts have happened so far only for those cases filed on the 1st. My guess is even by the 10th only 50% of the cases would actually have been receipted; probably 90% of them would have been received by that time.
Good luck to everyone once again, especially to our good friend QBF.

[vipulgupta470]

my PD is Feb 27th 2008 :-).. Sitting right on the edge based on CO's predictions..

[cbpds1]

my destiny hinges on QBF's luck, I become current if he does

AFAIK the lock box centers are now doing all the spadework.
.................................
Good luck to everyone once again, especially to our good friend QBF.

[MeraNoAayega]

Personally I feel all the attorneys should file as little cases as possible in the 1st 10 Days so that CO hits a Panic button... Just a Dream...

Well we should all hold filing our applications for a couple of months... that way CO will make EB2IC current.... and may be then since USCIS cannot process all these newly filed EB2IC cases, some visa numbers will be spilled to the EB3...

[pdmay2008]

Well we should all hold filing our applications for a couple of months... that way CO will make EB2IC current.... and may be then since USCIS cannot process all these newly filed EB2IC cases, some visa numbers will be spilled to the EB3...

It is not going to happen...

All of my friends who are current made sure their apps reached them on Nov 1. No one wants to miss the boat as they all have seen what it really means to their life.

That's exactly what I would do or any one else in this forum would do.

I can not find any one who want to delay their filings.

[cbpds1]

Assuming all Jun 07 cases will be approved shortly, the number of cases that CO will have for I/C from Spec's spreadsheet is

01-NOV-07 minus 01-AUG-07
16600-10314=6.2K
Porting =3K
Total 9.2K

Obviously he has to make a BTM or am I missing something?

[pdmay2008]

Assuming all Jun 07 cases will be approved shortly, the number of cases that CO will have for I/C from Spec's spreadsheet is

01-NOV-07 minus 01-AUG-07
16600-10314=6.2K
Porting =3K
Total 9.2K

Obviously he has to make a BTM or am I missing something?

01-NOV-07 minus 01-AUG-07 demand is not documentarily qualified demand. Not sure whether it shows up in the demand data or not.

[nishant2200]

ok, let's take analysis of Teddy on the numbers mixed with bit of mine, to do worst case analysis.

Oct VB, 15th april to 15th july 2007 caused 5400 reduction in demand data, 2.5k still left as preadjudicated ready to go.
Nov VB, 15th july 2007 to Nov 1st : 2.5k PWMB + 10k new applications.
I am adding 1000 more who were leftovers in late 2006 and early-mid 2007, who were not in demand data for Oct VB, due to various reasons like RFE or just slipped through the cracks, etc.

Also he started the year with around 8k ready to go, and he was comfortable consuming it with QSP. So let's assume he would be ready to have 5k buffer at least to begin the next FY 2013.

Total so far: 5400 + 2500 + 1000 + 2500 + 10000 = 21,400, let’s consider 21.5k

Going by past two years trend, CO would want 30k minimum, even not considering buffer. Lets consider 5k buffer as optional.

To grab hence:
1. 8.5k with no buffer considered and no porting
2. 5.5k with no buffer considered and 3k porting
3. 13.5k with 5k buffer considered and no porting
4. 10.5k with 5k buffer considered and 3k porting

Per the 485 inventories of past year, let's say CO has seen a 2.5k density each month for EB2IC. And since he is delaying the Dec VB release, say he looks at incoming data as well as the PWMB who filed in Nov VB, and extrapolates to a 3k density, which Teddy pointed out earlier might be possible.

Hence in above each scenario, he needs further movement of:
1. 3 month movement to 1st February 2008
2. 2 month movement to 1st January 2008
3. 4.5 months movement to 15th March 2008
4. 3.5 months movement to 15th February 2008

Please this is just some hypothetical worst case analysis, not arguing here about it should be 3k density, or 2.5 k or 2k density, or porting should be 2k or 4k and so on. It is just to drive home the point that movement is needed, only the length of the movement is to be thought about by CO. I thought a lot about posting this and was almost not posting, because I don’t want to be blamed for my PD is 11/8/2007 and am trying to prove that at least I will be current etc. Nothing is guaranteed, not even a week's move frankly speaking, until it actually happens, we cant read their minds. You can surely plug in your numbers and post what you think it can be.

I understand the concept of huge 140 backlog for EB1, EB2ROW, but CO has been comfortable to give approvals freely for Oct VB as well as Nov VB. So let's say they have used 6k + 2.5k = 8.5k visas already for EB2IC for FY 2012. So it does mean CO is banking on low demand from EB2 ROW and EB1 already. I don’t think based on pressure from USCIS that one day in this FY, they will resolve the huge backlog to some degree, hence don’t grab applications to build inventory that might be useful at end of FY in order to not waste visa numbers, CO will let this bulletin slip by.

Assuming all Jun 07 cases will be approved shortly, the number of cases that CO will have for I/C from Spec's spreadsheet is

01-NOV-07 minus 01-AUG-07
16600-10314=6.2K
Porting =3K
Total 9.2K

Obviously he has to make a BTM or am I missing something?

[TeddyKoochu]

Question for Veni & Spec

- In the Oct 2011 inventory the total for EB2 I + C is 3100, this figure does not even include PWMB's who filed later. Based on this the Jul 2007 actual figure could be much higher I would assume a significant number of PWMB's in July.

- Now if we look at the monthly perm breakdown the perms in the months subsequent to Jul 2007 are much higher so by correlation we should assume a similar or even a higher figure for these months. Await your valued inputs. The figures for subsequent months are way higher than Jul 2007. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=3096#post3096

- Both yourself and Spec worked very hard to compile the perm data in the URL below. In fact this great work was the reason why facts and data was born. The sheets are simply amazing to be honest and awesome work. This question has been bothering both me and Nishant; I feel that the density in the month’s post 2007 is definitely in the excess of 2.5K probably closer to 3K. This is what CO is trying to measure by testing the waters.

[tonyromo]

We can not use July EB2 I + C number as reference point. The ratio of PERM (EB2-3 IC) to I-485 is close to 4 or 6 which is not real. Lot of Chinese guys applied in EB2 NIW during July fiasco. I remember qblogfan discussing this a while back.

Question for Veni & Spec - In the Oct 2011 inventory the total for EB2 I + C is 3100, this figure does not even include PWMB's who filed later. Based on this the Jul 2007 actual figure could be much higher I would assume a significant number of PWMB's in July.

Now if we look at the monthly perm breakdown the perms in the months subsequent to Jul 2007 are much higher so by correlation we should assume a similar or even a higher figure for these months. Await your valued inputs. The figures for subsequent months are way higher than Jul 2007.In the actual inventory is 3K + without any PWMB's.
Both yourself and Spec worked very hard to compile the perm data in the URL below. In fact this great work was the reason why facts and data was born. The sheets are simply amazing to be honest and awesome work.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=3096#post3096
This question has been bothering both me and Nishant; I feel that the density in the month’s post 2007 is definitely in the excess of 2.5K probably closer to 3K. This is what CO is trying to measure by testing the waters.

[TeddyKoochu]

We can not use July EB2 I + C number as reference point. The ratio of PERM (EB2-3 IC) to I-485 is close to 4 or 6 which is not real. Lot of Chinese guys applied in EB2 NIW during July fiasco. I remember qblogfan discussing this a while back.

That’s a good point thanks. However let’s assume the PWMB will cancel the NIW cases, I don't think there could be that many NIW cases though, the Jul PWMB figure may well be 1500 + range. Still the Aug Perm figures are way higher than Jul. So if Jul is 3100 in the inventory is 3K per month a fair assumption?

[suninphx]

That’s a good point thanks. However let’s assume the PWMB will cancel the NIW cases, I don't think there could be that many NIW cases though, the Jul PWMB figure may well be 1500 + range. Still the Aug Perm figures are way higher than Jul. So if Jul is 3100 in the inventory is 3K per month a fair assumption?

3000 per month for what time range? July 2007 to ?

[suninphx]

That’s a good point thanks. However let’s assume the PWMB will cancel the NIW cases, I don't think there could be that many NIW cases though, the Jul PWMB figure may well be 1500 + range. Still the Aug Perm figures are way higher than Jul. So if Jul is 3100 in the inventory is 3K per month a fair assumption?

3000 per month for what time range? July 2007 to ?

Jan 2008 has highest number of PERMS - 2900

[vizcard]

Jan 2008 has highest number of PERMS - 2900

Unfortunately, the first half of 2008 is heavier than the 2nd half.