EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[leo07]

It has not happened before. So take that off your mind and enjoy the weekend. you may get the GC next month, but you will not get the weekend that you will lose thinking about it

[jackbrown_890]

has anybody seen an overnight posting of VB.... or I am just being too desperate ?

Not on DOS website but i have in the past on Mumbai Consulate website (its morning over there) before DOS website. But I do not expect it tonight because is it already Saturday in India.
We will just have to wait till Monday.

[nishant2200]

Ron's tidbit:

http://www.immigration-information.c...76/index4.html

"Actually, they are hoping that the USCIS will do its job. More and more, in recent years, we have see cutoff dates advanced in order to qualify more CP applicants so that the State Department can step in and pick up the slack left by the USCIS. It is interesting that the U.S. Consulate in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico processes as many immigrant cases by itself as the USCIS processes EB AOS cases. Those particular consular cases are also much more time intensive because a very large percentage of them involve waivers. Think about it: One consular post, by itself, handles as many green card applications as the entire USCIS handles EB cases. That is the root cause of the problem. We don't need more USCIS adjudicators; we need adjudicators who are willing to work and who know what they are doing.

This should also serve as an object lesson for folks who are trying to decide which processing path to elect. Each summer, thousands of EB applicants with more recent priority dates get green cards through consular processing while AOS applicants with older priority dates continue to sit and wait. Why? Because the State Department has to advance cutoff dates in order to make up for the fact that the USCIS isn't adjudicating cases fast enough to exhaust the quota. The choice is either to give green cards to people with more recent dates and at least get them off the waiting list, or do nothing and see visa numbers wasted. "

Also as per his office, they have got lots of fee invoices for Q1 2008 guys, I have seen this info scattered all across his forum from para legals and his ownself. I don't know man, I think the VO that supposedly gives heads up to NVC, isn't CO the main guy at the VO, who is in charge of all this. The NVC theory may not be trash after all. Maybe we are putting in too much science behind all this. I dont completely agree with Ron, I mean visa numbers have not been wasted since last few years, but he continually points out a lack of trust between USCIS and DOS.

[krishnav]

It has not happened before. So take that off your mind and enjoy the weekend. you may get the GC next month, but you will not get the weekend that you will lose thinking about it

Very well said!!

[imdeng]

What are the chances that when we get a handle on post 07/07 EB2IC demand in future demand data, it will turn out to be smaller than the 2K per month we have been assuming based on PERM data? I am specifically talking about preponement of some demand to July and Aug 2007 to fit into the deadline and also the demand destruction of non-EAD folks that must have happened because of recession.

I have a feeling that late 2007 and 2008 EB2IC demand is going to show up lower than our anticipation. We will know more in a couple months.

BTW - I am coming around to the view espoused by Gurus that what we are seeing here is a monthly spillover (we can also think of it as a continuous spillover) regime within the 27% Category Quarter Cap.

[nishant2200]

In my opinion, we shall have to wait and see. No way out.

QSP also explains why china E2 demand reduction was less than india E2, bcoz any SO is in order of PD allocation. It also explains why dates are being moved together for both. I think CO will do a mix of QSP n annual SO. In intake mode, he will do QSP so that it keeps USCIS also happy coz it stops ppl from harassing them with Sr congress inquiry etc. but when he has his intake he will pause n let USCIS take over n decide what they want focus on, us or backlog.

What are the chances that when we get a handle on post 07/07 EB2IC demand in future demand data, it will turn out to be smaller than the 2K per month we have been assuming based on PERM data? I am specifically talking about preponement of some demand to July and Aug 2007 to fit into the deadline and also the demand destruction of non-EAD folks that must have happened because of recession.

I have a feeling that late 2007 and 2008 EB2IC demand is going to show up lower than our anticipation. We will know more in a couple months.

BTW - I am coming around to the view espoused by Gurus that what we are seeing here is a monthly spillover (we can also think of it as a continuous spillover) regime within the 27% Category Quarter Cap.

[qesehmk]

That's pretty much shooting from the hip. I do not believe DoS can or will do any such thing nor do i think that matters much.

Some of these lawyers have realized that "Prediction" is a good game to increase their own visibility. While sometimes they give us good insight into DoS USCIS, its better to ignore their analysis which is many times tainted with self interest.

Ron's tidbit:

http://www.immigration-information.c...76/index4.html

"Actually, they are hoping that the USCIS will do its job. More and more, in recent years, we have see cutoff dates advanced in order to qualify more CP applicants so that the State Department can step in and pick up the slack left by the USCIS. It is interesting that the U.S. Consulate in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico processes as many immigrant cases by itself as the USCIS processes EB AOS cases. Those particular consular cases are also much more time intensive because a very large percentage of them involve waivers. Think about it: One consular post, by itself, handles as many green card applications as the entire USCIS handles EB cases. That is the root cause of the problem. We don't need more USCIS adjudicators; we need adjudicators who are willing to work and who know what they are doing.

This should also serve as an object lesson for folks who are trying to decide which processing path to elect. Each summer, thousands of EB applicants with more recent priority dates get green cards through consular processing while AOS applicants with older priority dates continue to sit and wait. Why? Because the State Department has to advance cutoff dates in order to make up for the fact that the USCIS isn't adjudicating cases fast enough to exhaust the quota. The choice is either to give green cards to people with more recent dates and at least get them off the waiting list, or do nothing and see visa numbers wasted. "

Also as per his office, they have got lots of fee invoices for Q1 2008 guys, I have seen this info scattered all across his forum from para legals and his ownself. I don't know man, I think the VO that supposedly gives heads up to NVC, isn't CO the main guy at the VO, who is in charge of all this. The NVC theory may not be trash after all. Maybe we are putting in too much science behind all this. I dont completely agree with Ron, I mean visa numbers have not been wasted since last few years, but he continually points out a lack of trust between USCIS and DOS.

[yesman]

bieber, my scary memory, common sense, survival instinct, cut copy n paste: this has shaped up my professional growth so far. Most of the stuff I did in engineering can be put to trash.

I'd have added "google" to that list

[ravisekhar]

http://blogs.ilw.com/gregsiskind/201...e-soaring.html

[nishant2200]

http://blogs.ilw.com/gregsiskind/201...e-soaring.html

Will certainly nip the rising EB1C trend. Another one showing declining immigration trend:
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...s-2011-sep.pdf

At this point our only problem is 140 backlog, but if new incoming declines it may very well be a balancing act and days of 30k SOFAD show signs of lingering. Another black horse is demand density, will it be 2k, 2.5k or 3k.

[Trident]

Gurus, Thanks for all your advice for filing my 485. Did that in the first week of October and actually completed FP last week. My PD is in 1st week of June.

Reading last couple of pages I got the impression they might even issue GC for my case in Jan / Feb..Is that true or am I reading it wrong ( we read what we would like to ?? )

Good luck for the Dec bulletin (especially Nishant !). Monday morning would be my vote...Thanks folks,

[nishant2200]

Yes that's correct, if he continues QSP. Also that is why my advice to people is make sure application is as perfect can be to best of ur knowledge, and apply with everything needed and reviewed, dont just rush into it to make it on first day. An RFE could cause you to miss valuable QSP and delay things.

Monday is my vote at least for demand data. I dont have question that dates will move or not, but the thing to see is length of movement.

Thanks for ur wishes. Freedom!

Gurus, Thanks for all your advice for filing my 485. Did that in the first week of October and actually completed FP last week. My PD is in 1st week of June.

Reading last couple of pages I got the impression they might even issue GC for my case in Jan / Feb..Is that true or am I reading it wrong ( we read what we would like to ?? )

Good luck for the Dec bulletin (especially Nishant !). Monday morning would be my vote...Thanks folks,

[Trident]

I have been there...Offcourse every one goes through this...Butterflies flying in the stomach every second you are awake with all the expectations..You will get it dude ...freedom and peace

Thanks for the reply.

[qesehmk]

Based on vote for last month - we donated 80 dollars to AID. We have 51 more to give. Waiting for Nalgonda project to confirm their US non-profit status.

For next month the poll is modified to add akshayapatra. Please vote and help us make a small difference.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...-We-Made/page2

[nishant2200]

Observations from various websites and trackitt.

I firmly believe now that QSP on a monthly allocation basis is in play. All preadjudicated folks post July 15th 2007 are getting approvals. This trend has picked up steam now, with news more and more trickling from Nov 3rd. I think on the November 4th, CO has finally done the allocation state decision of the visas for november, and this should be reflected in the demand data, that I am pretty sure now he will release on the Nov 7th Monday. Unless any PWMB have also become quickly qualified in 2 months, the demand data should show close to nil for EB2 I/C. Or if few show up, they will be allocated next month, and they would surely be PWMB or a few who were pending on an RFE. Read further below.

Supposing 10k new folks as posited by Teddy become qualified eventually from Nov VB, let me add 3 months for that as best case, so they get qualified in March 2012. Also suppose the PWMB start getting qualified from December VB (some of the folks in Oct VB would be PWMB, and the PWMB folks in Nov VB would get qualified in January VB). Projection of PWMB is 2.5 k again credit to Teddy and other gurus.

Hence, since November allocation is done by CO, now as long as he is able to conjure up 2.5k allocation for PWMB of Oct and Nov VB; then in the December, January and February, he should be able to move dates, grab applications, and not forced to retrogress due to any pressure from USCIS. (Notice how he said in AILA meeting significant movement between now and February - this matches up). Since he has been able to do QSP on monthly basis on a much larger scale than 2.5k a month in the first two months, I think doing 2.5k in two parts, one in Dec for Oct VB qualified PWMB, and then in January for Nov VB qualified PWMB should not be a very difficult effort.

I think the ability to do QSP on monthly basis has allowed CO to do staggered and measured movements in beginning of FY to make inventory, rather than doing a single BTM and then retrogress.

Let me know holes in this so that we can refine.

ps: Teddy, the QSP on monthly allocation, based on our conversation, seemed wild guess at first, but it is turning true. Dude lets apply to CO for a job.

[suninphx]

Observations from various websites and trackitt.

I firmly believe now that QSP on a monthly allocation basis is in play. All preadjudicated folks post July 15th 2007 are getting approvals. This trend has picked up steam now, with news more and more trickling from Nov 3rd. I think on the November 4th, CO has finally done the allocation state decision of the visas for november, and this should be reflected in the demand data, that I am pretty sure now he will release on the Nov 7th Monday. Unless any PWMB have also become quickly qualified in 2 months, the demand data should show close to nil for EB2 I/C. Or if few show up, they will be allocated next month, and they would surely be PWMB or a few who were pending on an RFE. Read further below.

Supposing 10k new folks as posited by Teddy become qualified eventually from Nov VB, let me add 3 months for that as best case, so they get qualified in March 2012. Also suppose the PWMB start getting qualified from December VB (some of the folks in Oct VB would be PWMB, and the PWMB folks in Nov VB would get qualified in January VB). Projection of PWMB is 2.5 k again credit to Teddy and other gurus.

Hence, since November allocation is done by CO, now as long as he is able to conjure up 2.5k allocation for PWMB of Oct and Nov VB; then in the December, January and February, he should be able to move dates, grab applications, and not forced to retrogress due to any pressure from USCIS. (Notice how he said in AILA meeting significant movement between now and February - this matches up). Since he has been able to do QSP on monthly basis on a much larger scale than 2.5k a month in the first two months, I think doing 2.5k in two parts, one in Dec for Oct VB qualified PWMB, and then in January for Nov VB qualified PWMB should not be a very difficult effort.

I think the ability to do QSP on monthly basis has allowed CO to do staggered and measured movements in beginning of FY to make inventory, rather than doing a single BTM and then retrogress.

Let me know holes in this so that we can refine.

ps: Teddy, the QSP on monthly allocation, based on our conversation, seemed wild guess at first, but it is turning true. Dude lets apply to CO for a job.

So whats your guess on where dates would be at end of FY2012?

[indiasunil]

So whats your guess on where dates would be at end of FY2012?

Will be around June 2008.

[nishant2200]

Will be around June 2008.

I have put on first page present feeling. Will update in future as situation gets clearer.

[indiasunil]

I have put on first page present feeling. Will update in future as situation gets clearer.

You mean Mar.2008 ? Its already clear till Mar. 2008, ofcourse, further movement depends on intake. But my feeling, surely will go another 2 to 3 months.

[nishant2200]

You mean Mar.2008 ? Its already clear till Mar. 2008, ofcourse, further movement depends on intake. But my feeling, surely will go another 2 to 3 months.

Read my post on first page, not Q.

[vizcard]

Nishant had June 08. I just hope it goes to August-end.., selfishly ofcourse

[Jonty Rhodes]

I understand that most of us, in last few days, have gone through the news of the AILA conference with Mr. CO and possible advancement of dates to March 1st, 2008 for EB2I and EB2C and further advancement of dates in January 2012 and February 2012 visa bulletins.

I came across this article and it has this table showing advancement of dates till November 1st, 2008 in February visa bulletin. The dates are remaining stagnant for most of the Spring, 2012 with eventual retrogression in Summer, 2012 according to this table.

Can Gurus throw more light on this? Is this prediction of November 1, 2008 just an assumption pulled out of the hat or based on a serious calculation? I am in doubt especially because it is coming from an immigration law-firm who may have their own personal agenda (Get more EB3 Porting business).

What are your calculations saying, Gurus? With eventual retrogression looming, how far do you think the dates would retrogress? My PD is in May, 2011 but if the prediction (assumed or calculated) is true, I would be really happy because it would provide a lot of relief to our fellow EB2I and EB2C.

Here is the link.

http://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/x...uck+In+Neutral

[vizcard]

I understand that most of us, in last few days, have gone through the news of the AILA conference with Mr. CO and possible advancement of dates to March 1st, 2008 for EB2I and EB2C and further advancement of dates in January 2012 and February 2012 visa bulletins.

I came across this article and it has this table showing advancement of dates till November 1st, 2008 in February visa bulletin. The dates are remaining stagnant for most of the Spring, 2012 with eventual retrogression in Summer, 2012 according to this table.

Can Gurus throw more light on this? Is this prediction of November 1, 2008 just an assumption pulled out of the hat or based on a serious calculation? I am in doubt especially because it is coming from an immigration law-firm who may have their own personal agenda (Get more EB3 Porting business).

What are your calculations saying, Gurus? With eventual retrogression looming, how far do you think the dates would retrogress? My PD is in May, 2011 but if the prediction (assumed or calculated) is true, I would be really happy because it would provide a lot of relief to our fellow EB2I and EB2C.

Here is the link.

http://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/x...uck+In+Neutral

Can you summarize. The site needs registration. Based on what you have suggested so far, I believe this is a guesstimate. In none of the calculations here has Nov 2008 come up as a plausible scenario and neither has any intelligence/rumor come out that supports this.

It could very well be lawyers trying to ... ahem .... be lawyers.

Edit: I suppose they are presuming a 4 month jump in Jan and Feb too. That's where they get Nov 2008. Again this is without registering or reading the full article.

[Feb2008]

United States: Visa Office Predicts Significant Movement For EB-2 India & China; But EB-3 India Stuck In Neutral
05 November 2011
Article by Valentine A. Brown
inShare Twitter Facebook Digg

Last week, Charles Oppenheim, the man behind the mysterious Visa Bulletin curtain, also known as Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division of the Department of State, made some significant predictions regarding priority date movement in the coming months.

The best news came for Indian and Chinese nationals in the EB-2 category. For these individuals, Mr. Oppenheim predicted that priority dates would be advanced "significantly" over the next few visa bulletins. He indicated that "significantly" could mean a four month jump to March 1, 2008 for the December bulletin, and that this trend could continue into the January and February 2012 bulletins. He also predicted that EB-2 for the Rest of the World (ROW) category will remain current throughout 2012.

The worst news came for Indian nationals in the EB-3 category. Mr. Oppenheim predicted that the category will remain stagnant throughout the year. This is due to the per country limitations placed on each visa category, which for Indians in EB-3 amounts to only 3000 green cards per year. The queue in this category is estimated at 210,000, thus making a 70 year wait, "plausible" according to Oppenheim. There is some hope on the horizon for persons in EB-3 due to pending legislation, which would eliminate the per country limitation. See my previous blog on this topic for more information.

Although the news is not as bad for Chinese nationals in EB-3,- a steady advancement of one to three weeks per month for the next several months - it still means long waits for visa numbers for applicants in this category. The wait may be shorter for those EB-3 applicants in the ROW category, as Oppenheim predicts a 3-4 week movement per month for the next several months. The chart below demonstrates what these advancements might look like over the next seven months. Please note that this is only a prediction, but may help applicants prepare their finances, travel plans and documentation for possible filing of adjustment of status applications.

Dec '11
Jan '12
Feb '12
Mar '12
Apr '12
May '12
June '12

EB-2 India & China
03/01/2008
07/01/2008
11/01/2008
11/01/2008
11/01/2008
11/01/2008
Possible Retrogression

EB-3 China
09/12/2004
10/3/2004
10/24/2004
11/14/2004
12/5/2004
12/26/2004
01/15/2005

EB-3 India
07/22/2002
07/22/2002
08/01/2002
08/01/2002
08/15/2002
08/15/2002
08/22/2002

EB-3 ROW
01/22/2006
02/15/2006
03/15/2006
04/07/2006
04/21/2006
05/15/2006
06/04/2006


Number crunching by the Visa Office is a difficult business. As explained by Oppenheim, it is a guessing game for several reasons; (1) it is impossible to identify the exact number of people in the queue because the number of spouses and minor children who will be counted against the visa numbers are unknown until they actually apply for a visa number. This has been especially the case in EB-3, as the long waits have increased, applicants' families have grown. (2) Visa numbers are not actually requested until the end of the green card application process, leaving a 6 month lag time between priority date movement and actual visa allocation by the State Department. This problem is what often leads to the retrogression in the priority dates.

Oppenheim stated that retrogression of EB-2 for India and China is a good possibility in the Summer of 2012, due to the inexact science of visa number usage estimation. Oppenheim's theory is that he will advance the numbers significantly in the early part of the Fiscal Year, develop a queue for visa numbers, hold the dates steady from March 2012-June 2012, to allow USCIS to catch up with visa allocation then retrogress in June 2012 or later if necessary. Even though retrogression is unnerving to those affected by it, it is a better result than having precious visa numbers unused and then lost forever if they are not allocated before 9/30/2012. Based upon this timeline, it is possible that there could be additional EB-2 movement in September 2012 to ensure that all of the numbers are used before the fiscal year ends on September 30, 2012.

With the possibility of retrogression, it is important to get I-485 applications filed in the first month of visa availability.

Just like Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz, we have been fooled before by the Visa Office, so there is no use in getting too excited by the good news, as it means that certain applicants will be able to file their green card applications earlier than they might have previously thought. But for those Indian nationals in EB-3 who have been debating whether to do the necessary to refile in EB-2, this confirms their worst fears, and suggests that all steps necessary to get in to EB-2 be initiated, the sooner the better.

We are prepared to handle the anticipated significant movement in the EB-2 China and India Categories. Please contact us if we can be of any assistance.

This article is for general information and does not include full legal analysis of the matters presented. It should not be construed or relied upon as legal advice or legal opinion on any specific facts or circumstances. The description of the results of any specific case or transaction contained herein does not mean or suggest that similar results can or could be obtained in any other matter. Each legal matter should be considered to be unique and subject to varying results. The invitation to contact the authors or attorneys in our firm is not a solicitation to provide professional services and should not be construed as a statement as to any availability to perform legal services in any jurisdiction in which such attorney is not permitted to practice.

Duane Morris LLP, a full-service law firm with more than 700 attorneys in 24 offices in the United States and internationally, offers innovative solutions to the legal and business challenges presented by today's evolving global markets. Duane Morris LLP, a full-service law firm with more than 700 attorneys in 24 offices in the United States and internationally, offers innovative solutions to the legal and business challenges presented by today's evolving global markets. The Duane Morris Institute provides training workshops for HR professionals, in-house counsel, benefits administrators and senior managers.

Can you summarize. The site needs registration. Based on what you have suggested so far, I believe this is a guesstimate. In none of the calculations here has Nov 2008 come up as a plausible scenario and neither has any intelligence/rumor come out that supports this.

It could very well be lawyers trying to ... ahem .... be lawyers.

Edit: I suppose they are presuming a 4 month jump in Jan and Feb too. That's where they get Nov 2008. Again this is without registering or reading the full article.

[nishant2200]

Guys, I didn't want to jump in here, but couldn't stop after seeing the tables of duane morris!

"Just like Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz, we have been fooled before by the Visa Office, so there is no use in getting too excited by the good news, as it means that certain applicants will be able to file their green card applications earlier than they might have previously thought. But for those Indian nationals in EB-3 who have been debating whether to do the necessary to refile in EB-2, this confirms their worst fears, and suggests that all steps necessary to get in to EB-2 be initiated, the sooner the better."

This basically sums it up. They want to get clients, by pointing out that EB3 is doomed, we will help you with porting, jump aboard. They also make themselves unaccountable of prediction by saying we have been fooled by VO before.

Everyone is trying to put words in CO's mouth. My feeling is all we can take home is: Significant movement possible between December and February. And an extrapolation would be CO is aware of need to make inventory.

I am certain that next VB is the only one in which he is a bit blind, but from then on, he will have a fair estimate of expected density. Come December, when he has to decide January VB, he will know: a. How many people from July 15th 2007 to Nov 1st 2007 applied in November b. How many preadjudicated applications for July 15th 2007 to August 15th 2007 were there (this one he already knows in demand data).

The main point is we don't know what is his targeted inventory. Is it possible he is just targeting the maximum possible? If yes, then he can just make current, or do jumps of a year, why 3-4 months at a time. It's not to oblige USCIS's workload, that would be a small part of it, I feel it's mainly because he wants a controlled staggered intake as well as a controlled staggered preadjudicated queue appearing in demand data, and hence he can also start new FY with appropriate amount of inventory, not too less, not too more, so that his QSP trick can work.

ps: I am not blasting this though, it's always good to share information you find, so that people can put their analysis and views on it! Keep on finding..