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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

  1. #1301
    Sorry, you don't have to be confused, it's just a theory not a fact set on stone.

  2. #1302
    Are you with same employer? If your place of work changes/moves 25 miles outside the area in which your labor petition is filed, different set of laws apply. Please check with an attorney immediately.
    btw, Did you file AR-11?

    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    arey uncle...when the person serving is one of us... we can stand/sit/sleep/bend any where samjhee.... also it is CO's queue not Buffet's....

    coming to my question again... I got my 140 approved 2 years back when i was in texas and now i am in NJ... so where should my 485 go?????

  3. #1303
    if VB cut off date is April 8th 2008. Only folkks whose priority date is April 7th or lower are eligible to file. April 8th and above will have to wait.
    Quote Originally Posted by venkimakthal View Post
    I quick question may be silly, if my priority date is April 8, 2008 and VB cut of date is also April 8, 2008, am I eligible to apply the 485 or I need to wait VB cut of date becomes April 15, 2008 or later.

  4. #1304
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    Quote Originally Posted by leo07 View Post
    Are you with same employer? If your place of work changes/moves 25 miles outside the area in which your labor petition is filed, different set of laws apply. Please check with an attorney immediately.
    btw, Did you file AR-11?
    That is when his 'future' job location is moved. Not current Job. This comes into picture generally when employer address changes IMHO.
    Last edited by suninphx; 10-31-2011 at 02:55 PM.

  5. #1305
    AFAIK, The location/job for which employer filed a labor and "immigration' petition(140) changes, you cannot use those petitions to file a 485. if push comes to shove,you can argue if employer is on your behalf all the time, that the petition is for a future employment and not current.

  6. #1306
    Nishant

    Could you please answer my question stated below?

    Thanks
    Nat

    Quote Originally Posted by natvyas View Post
    If the date moves to 1 Mar 2008 how many applications will USCIS have (including the ones they already have)?

    I did take a look at Spec's table and considered 4K porting, however I wasnt sure about the effect, the Oct approvals will have on the number of applications that will be pending review.

    Regards
    Nat

  7. #1307
    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    arey uncle...when the person serving is one of us... we can stand/sit/sleep/bend any where samjhee.... also it is CO's queue not Buffet's....

    coming to my question again... I got my 140 approved 2 years back when i was in texas and now i am in NJ... so where should my 485 go?????
    Soggadu,

    If your employer's address (the one that sponsored your I-140) remains the same, then you have nothing to worry - check with the attorney wrt the address to send the forms.

    But if your employer address changed (new location > 35mi from old address) - then you will have to start the PERM & I-140 all over again -retaining the old PD.

    If you moved to a branch office in NJ and if your employer still has an office in the old address, then you can get away with a letter from the employer saying that your future employment is going to be in the original (old) location.

    I had a similar issue where my employer moved the HQ from midwest to mountain region and shut down the old HQ office. I got my PERM filed (approved last month) and filed for I-140 two weeks back - retaining old PD.

    Goodluck!
    Last edited by ragx08; 10-31-2011 at 03:06 PM.

  8. #1308
    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    arey uncle...when the person serving is one of us... we can stand/sit/sleep/bend any where samjhee.... also it is CO's queue not Buffet's....

    coming to my question again... I got my 140 approved 2 years back when i was in texas and now i am in NJ... so where should my 485 go?????
    Does it matters ?? I am not sure, never thought of this.. I moved to 3 to 4 places after my I-140. Now in NJ.

  9. #1309
    Generally, the body shoppers/consultants have a way to work around this; the employee could be moving across the country during the process - but the employer's HQ remains the same and they don't have any issues whatsoever with the process - not sure how. If you are employed with a consulting firm and moved from TX to NJ to take up new project - then you better check with your employer......
    Last edited by ragx08; 10-31-2011 at 03:16 PM.

  10. #1310
    Teddy gave earlier an argument about how he feels until Nov 1st 2007, there are 2.5 k preadjudicated, 4k PWMB, and 10k new applications and also a higher density of 3k per month.

    Considering the higher density 3k for December 2007 and November 2007 also:
    16.5k + 6k = 22.5k for 2007 ending.

    Now for Jan and Feb 2008, lets revert back to Specs estimate, and it comes to 4,988 which is like 5k, i.e. 2.5k a month, so I will just consider 2.5k a month density for simplicity sake. Hence until 1st March 2008, 22.5k + 5k = 27.5k.

    Now, purely looking at previous years' trend(s), I think he should keep 30k + some buffer. If we say buffer is two months worth, and consider 2.5k average per month for 2008, we get to 3 more months for 27.5k + 7.5k = 35k, and date comes to 1st June 2008, and that is pretty darn close to what the NVC fee bills were sent for.

    I personally feel CO should just go by past trend at this point, and disregard noise if any raised by USCIS about backlogs, porting and other variables, as the future so far is not in anyone's hands, just yesterday Teddy showed how at least just October trackitt trend is surprisingly pointed to high SOFAD, inspite of backlog and inventory negatives. I believe that CO's predictions are in line with these thoughts. So far so good.

    Quote Originally Posted by natvyas View Post
    Nishant

    Could you please answer my question stated below?

    Thanks
    Nat
    Last edited by nishant2200; 10-31-2011 at 03:17 PM.
    I am not a lawyer, and it's always best to consult an immigration attorney.

  11. #1311
    Quote Originally Posted by cbpds1 View Post
    why are we talking abt predictions when CO has stated it will be atleast Mar-01-2008 ?, I think u shd predict anything more than mar 2008, isnt it? whats changed now.
    point taken Sir. CO definitely more smarter and authority than me, I will keep my mouth shut on predictions on this Dec VB

  12. #1312
    Hi All,

    I am on H1B right now and I was changing my address through ar-11 form and for the question "You are in us as", I submitted as "Visitor".
    Is that right? Or should I have set it to other and said "H1B". If I did a mistake about that, what can I do to correct it? Please advise.

    Thanks.

  13. #1313
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    Quote Originally Posted by ragx08 View Post
    Generally, the body shoppers/consultants have a way to work around this; the employee could be moving across the country during the process - but the employer's HQ remains the same and they don't have any issues whatsoever with the process - not sure how. If you are employed with a consulting firm and moved from TX to NJ to take up new project - then you better check with your employer......
    There is no work around or anything. PERM Job is advertised as head Office as base location. In job description its mentioned that employee will take assignments in different parts of US. Thats how consulting companies work (big or small).

  14. #1314
    Thanks Nishant !

  15. #1315
    Quote Originally Posted by suninphx View Post
    There is no work around or anything. PERM Job is advertised as head Office as base location. In job description its mentioned that employee will take assignments in different parts of US. Thats how consulting companies work (big or small).
    That explains! For a permanent job, the position is tied with the location and even if transferred to a different location (> 35mi) it is as good as changing jobs - requiring new PERM and I-140. Always wondered how the consulting firms got away with this :-)!

    Thanx.

  16. #1316
    hey i was just asking to know if something changed in the past few days, thats all. Please continue to write abt it as u have been very helpful like the other gurus !!

    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    point taken Sir. CO definitely more smarter and authority than me, I will keep my mouth shut on predictions on this Dec VB

  17. #1317
    Quote Originally Posted by ragx08 View Post
    That explains! For a permanent job, the position is tied with the location and even if transferred to a different location (> 35mi) it is as good as changing jobs - requiring new PERM and I-140. Always wondered how the consulting firms got away with this :-)!

    Thanx.
    Thank got my consulting employer changed the location but with in 5miles, otherwise I am end up with filing PERM and I-140 again.

  18. #1318
    Soggadu,

    So, what is your case? Are you safe?

  19. #1319
    Quote Originally Posted by venkimakthal View Post
    Thank got my consulting employer changed the location but with in 5miles, otherwise I am end up with filing PERM and I-140 again.
    You are lucky dude!

  20. #1320
    Is it safe to finish the medicals now rather than running when my date becomes current? My PD April 8, 2008. Still I am not confident my date becomes current in at least Jan 2012 VB.

  21. #1321
    Oracle pch053's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Teddy gave earlier an argument about how he feels until Nov 1st 2007, there are 2.5 k preadjudicated, 4k PWMB, and 10k new applications and also a higher density of 3k per month.

    Considering the higher density 3k for December 2007 and November 2007 also:
    16.5k + 6k = 22.5k for 2007 ending.

    Now for Jan and Feb 2008, lets revert back to Specs estimate, and it comes to 4,988 which is like 5k, i.e. 2.5k a month, so I will just consider 2.5k a month density for simplicity sake. Hence until 1st March 2008, 22.5k + 5k = 27.5k.

    Now, purely looking at previous years' trend(s), I think he should keep 30k + some buffer. If we say buffer is two months worth, and consider 2.5k average per month for 2008, we get to 3 more months for 27.5k + 7.5k = 35k, and date comes to 1st June 2008, and that is pretty darn close to what the NVC fee bills were sent for.

    I personally feel CO should just go by past trend at this point, and disregard noise if any raised by USCIS about backlogs, porting and other variables, as the future so far is not in anyone's hands, just yesterday Teddy showed how at least just October trackitt trend is surprisingly pointed to high SOFAD, inspite of backlog and inventory negatives. I believe that CO's predictions are in line with these thoughts. So far so good.
    nishant,
    In your calculation shouldn't we also consider the # of visas that got approval in Oct'11. For example, if X I485 got approved in Oct, then the expected remaining SOFAD available for the year is 30K - X and we add some buffer on top of this. So what CO might be aiming for is (30K - X) + buffer. Now, we don't know what X is but ~6K (PDs from mid-April'07 to mid-June'07) got current during Oct and from trackitt and mittbs data it seems that a good portion on this 6K cases have been approved in Oct. Am I missing anything here?

  22. #1322
    Quote Originally Posted by pch053 View Post
    nishant,
    In your calculation shouldn't we also consider the # of visas that got approval in Oct'11. For example, if X I485 got approved in Oct, then the expected remaining SOFAD available for the year is 30K - X and we add some buffer on top of this. So what CO might be aiming for is (30K - X) + buffer. Now, we don't know what X is but ~6K (PDs from mid-April'07 to mid-June'07) got current during Oct and from trackitt and mittbs data it seems that a good portion on this 6K cases have been approved in Oct. Am I missing anything here?
    Very good point pch053, it means he is in fact looking for 24k + buffer, beginning from July 15th 2007 onwards. So in fact 1st March 2008 is the farthest destination point now instead of 1st June 2008. Does that sound correct now pch? so in fact 1st march 2008 will get him 27.5k applications (from 15th july 2007 to 1st March 2008) in addition to the 6k he already dealt with.

    We know that the 6k was not from FY 2011 cap as those dates were not current during the September of 2011. Hence you are correct in saying 6k SOFAD already done with.
    Last edited by nishant2200; 10-31-2011 at 03:44 PM.

  23. #1323
    Quote Originally Posted by cbpds1 View Post
    hey i was just asking to know if something changed in the past few days, thats all. Please continue to write abt it as u have been very helpful like the other gurus !!
    no no, not at all offended, I really mean it, I mean if CO himself has given a prediction, there is really very less purpose of any of giving any prediction. He is the big guy!

  24. #1324
    Oracle pch053's Avatar
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    This sounds correct to me; 24K + buffer is what I think CO will be expecting. The big unknown here is what the buffer will be: 3K, 5K, 10K? I will expect at least 5K - 6K; so this might mean sometime around March'08 - April'08. If the buffer is ~10K, the dates might move to mid-2008; to me, it is safer to err on the side of have a larger buffer than not having enough pre-adjudicated visas to approve.

  25. #1325
    Quote Originally Posted by pch053 View Post
    This sounds correct to me; 24K + buffer is what I think CO will be expecting. The big unknown here is what the buffer will be: 3K, 5K, 10K? I will expect at least 5K - 6K; so this might mean sometime around March'08 - April'08. If the buffer is ~10K, the dates might move to mid-2008; to me, it is safer to err on the side of have a larger buffer than not having enough pre-adjudicated visas to approve.
    Thanks you pch. I completely agree with you. As I said earlier, you don't know what future holds. Having a huge buffer is a much better alternative than making dates current for both DOS and USCIS as they dont want the july 2007 fiasco again, although we folks would surely appreciate it, but realistic POV. At least current thought process of CO looks to be in sync with this.

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