EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[nishant2200]

Teddy, thanks for ur hard work.

The EB1C growing 4 times goes well with the inventory report that shows 4k pending in EB1 India. What happens if EB1 India grabs a lot, do they retro too and get SO. Is that bad, good, any repurcussions?

Friends following are the Trackitt comparisons for 2011.
EB2 ROW 2010 - 25
EB2 ROW 2011 - 63
EB1 (A+B+C) - 2010: 8 + 6 + 5 = 19
EB1 (A+B+C) - 2011: 3 + 2 + 20 = 25
Last year’s SOFAD was 30K lets split it as EB1 - 12K, EB5 - 6K, Regular Cap - 5.5K, EB2 ROW 6.5
- EB2 ROW usage is drastically down by 60%. This could really be good for SOFAD. If this trend continues
Then EB2 could well be providing very significant SOFAD.
Let’s assume decline to be 30% instead of 60%. As smaller figures do not mean smaller scale down literally they should be factored.
EB2 ROW SOFAD will be - (40-5.5) - 70/100 (40-5.5-6.5) = 34.5 - 19.6 = 15K.
- EB1 is overall in the same range down by 25%, however looking at the figures looks like the Kazarian memo is playing havoc with EB1 A & B diminishing and EB1C growing 4 fold.
Looks like EB1 should maintain the 12K SOFAD. It’s a must that the Kazarian trend is maintained or ROW decline should compensate it.
Despite high 485 inventory and high 140 figures the Trackitt trend for October is highly encouraging. This is very early days however last year this early lead was very correct. With this early trend I believe that last year’s SOFAD level may well be maintained but let’s make note that it’s an early trend and Trackitt represents only a small sample of data but the great advantage is that its well organized. For October yet another explanation could be that CO is giving away EB1, EB2 ROW and EB5 excess to EB2 I/C on a monthly basis if it is literally true.
If last year’s SOFAD level is maintained then everyone in 2007 will have GC in hand by Sep 2012, however the other indicators suggest lesser movement than this. To take the Trackitt trend concrete another 2 months of observation is required. The agencies IMHO must maintain 2 months as a buffer. Let’s all hope the Trackitt trend holds.

[venkimakthal]

If the date moves to Apr. 9th 2008 then you are eligible to apply for 485.

But CO will give dates 1, 8. 15 & 22, i have to wait till 15, no other choice.

[srimurthy]

Hi Imdeng,

Sorry to hear about your situtation. If they have to change any info, they would first cross check and then make the changes and for cross checking they would issue a 221(g). I guess if you infrom your lawyer and your organization, and send them copies of the discrepencies they should be ready to answer that it was Embassy's issue when they interpreted wrongly and have to correct and the employers can provide the supporting info needed. Usually its 2 to 3 months for a 221(g), but those are even before a visa is stamped. But in your case since Visa was already approved and stamped, hope it gets done with in your vacation period.

Imdeng, sorry to hear about your situation. I went through 221(g) processing 3-4 years back (I guess it was name check, since they didn't ask me to submit any additional documents). It took ~3 months to get my Visa. Not sure if things have improved since then in terms of processing time. My employer was kind enough to wait for me and helped in every way possible. I suggest you contact your employer and explain the situation. Also you can talk to your company lawyer. They might be familiar with similar cases and associated processing times.

[sreddy]

You case looks very different. Unless some one on this forum gone thro similar issue and has better suggestion, I think following advise from your Law firm is the right thing to do.

Thanks for your reply. My father's name in everything in India is registered as Pradip (for eg all my degrees from India, school leaving certificate etc) and on my passport my middle name is Pradeep, so everything after coming to USA (my master's degree, driver's license etc) I had to use Pradeep as my father's name. So changing the name on my birth certificate will not solve my problem. I have to get an affidavit showing that the same name can be spelled in two different ways in English.

[suninphx]

Sorry for cluttering the forum - Q - please remove this later to appropriate location.

As I had posted, I am in India with my wife for Diwali. We went to New Delhi Embassy for our H1B stamping - our interview was fine and quick (I work for a large Univ in Business School and she works for a large bank). We got our visas back in 3-4 days - all fine - except - they had printed our Employer Names wrong - wrong campus in my case and National Association in her case instead of North America (for HSBC N A). They asked her to submit the passports back for visa correction to VFS with a cover letter. We did that. No response for a week and finally today we got an email saying that the passport is for 221(g) administrative processing.

This is such a shock to us. We are on H1B for more than 3 years and this was just a reissue of the visa. There is nothing in our background that will inspire suspicion. We even had the visa - it was their mistake that they printed our employer name wrong (BOTH OF THEM!) - and now we are stuck.

PLEASE if anyone has any thoughts on the way forward - please let me know. This is the first time I have ever had any immigration problem and don't know what to do. Please help.

Please explore possibility of 'working remotely', if feasible. That takes off some pressure. Hope this get resolved soon.

[natvyas]

If the date moves to 1 Mar 2008 how many applications will USCIS have (including the ones they already have)?

I did take a look at Spec's table and considered 4K porting, however I wasnt sure about the effect, the Oct approvals will have on the number of applications that will be pending review.

Regards
Nat

[imdeng]

Thanks srimurthy. Your thoughts give me hope. I am planning on working remotely but my wife's employer may not be accomodating. If anybody else have any thoughts - please share. If you don't want to clutter the main thread - then please send a PM.

Hi Imdeng,

Sorry to hear about your situtation. If they have to change any info, they would first cross check and then make the changes and for cross checking they would issue a 221(g). I guess if you infrom your lawyer and your organization, and send them copies of the discrepencies they should be ready to answer that it was Embassy's issue when they interpreted wrongly and have to correct and the employers can provide the supporting info needed. Usually its 2 to 3 months for a 221(g), but those are even before a visa is stamped. But in your case since Visa was already approved and stamped, hope it gets done with in your vacation period.

[sandeep11]

imdeng- I understand your situation, but as far as i Know there is nothing to worry about.

May be my situation will help ease your stress a little bit:

I scheduled an interview for my wife at Chennai for her H4 few years back. I was in the same situation as yours. They usually issue 221G for any stuff they take back for corrections. 221G is only way for them to track and respond to your queries. It took us 2weeks before we got back the passport. I used to call the VFS almost everyday ( its a pain but we are at their mercy).

So nothing to worry. Since you already submitted all documents relax and you should recieve the passports shortly.

Sorry for cluttering the forum - Q - please remove this later to appropriate location.

As I had posted, I am in India with my wife for Diwali. We went to New Delhi Embassy for our H1B stamping - our interview was fine and quick (I work for a large Univ in Business School and she works for a large bank). We got our visas back in 3-4 days - all fine - except - they had printed our Employer Names wrong - wrong campus in my case and National Association in her case instead of North America (for HSBC N A). They asked her to submit the passports back for visa correction to VFS with a cover letter. We did that. No response for a week and finally today we got an email saying that the passport is for 221(g) administrative processing.

This is such a shock to us. We are on H1B for more than 3 years and this was just a reissue of the visa. There is nothing in our background that will inspire suspicion. We even had the visa - it was their mistake that they printed our employer name wrong (BOTH OF THEM!) - and now we are stuck.

PLEASE if anyone has any thoughts on the way forward - please let me know. This is the first time I have ever had any immigration problem and don't know what to do. Please help.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, thanks for ur hard work.

The EB1C growing 4 times goes well with the inventory report that shows 4k pending in EB1 India. What happens if EB1 India grabs a lot, do they retro too and get SO. Is that bad, good, any repurcussions?

Right now the data from Trackitt is limited, it shows EB1C growing but more than compensated by EB1 A & B declines. So for now nothing to worry, however if EB1 grows then it will reduce SOFAD. I think the heat of the inventory and I140 has not been felt yet.

[indiasunil]

Sorry for cluttering the forum - Q - please remove this later to appropriate location.

As I had posted, I am in India with my wife for Diwali. We went to New Delhi Embassy for our H1B stamping - our interview was fine and quick (I work for a large Univ in Business School and she works for a large bank). We got our visas back in 3-4 days - all fine - except - they had printed our Employer Names wrong - wrong campus in my case and National Association in her case instead of North America (for HSBC N A). They asked her to submit the passports back for visa correction to VFS with a cover letter. We did that. No response for a week and finally today we got an email saying that the passport is for 221(g) administrative processing.

This is such a shock to us. We are on H1B for more than 3 years and this was just a reissue of the visa. There is nothing in our background that will inspire suspicion. We even had the visa - it was their mistake that they printed our employer name wrong (BOTH OF THEM!) - and now we are stuck.

PLEASE if anyone has any thoughts on the way forward - please let me know. This is the first time I have ever had any immigration problem and don't know what to do. Please help.

I had same experience got my passport in two weeks with corrections, initially issued 221g.. Its just reference way to track your case. All these kind of cases, usually will take 2 to 4 weeks as i know.

Thanks,
Sunil.

[manubhai]

Sorry for cluttering the forum - Q - please remove this later to appropriate location.

As I had posted, I am in India with my wife for Diwali. We went to New Delhi Embassy for our H1B stamping - our interview was fine and quick (I work for a large Univ in Business School and she works for a large bank). We got our visas back in 3-4 days - all fine - except - they had printed our Employer Names wrong - wrong campus in my case and National Association in her case instead of North America (for HSBC N A). They asked her to submit the passports back for visa correction to VFS with a cover letter. We did that. No response for a week and finally today we got an email saying that the passport is for 221(g) administrative processing.

This is such a shock to us. We are on H1B for more than 3 years and this was just a reissue of the visa. There is nothing in our background that will inspire suspicion. We even had the visa - it was their mistake that they printed our employer name wrong (BOTH OF THEM!) - and now we are stuck.

PLEASE if anyone has any thoughts on the way forward - please let me know. This is the first time I have ever had any immigration problem and don't know what to do. Please help.

imdeng - I'd say the same as a few others here - That you just need to make sure you call them and that you will ultimately get the passports back. A lot depends on what they have asked for on 221. My wife got a 221g last year, and upon submitting all documents, she got the passport within one week. About 8 years ago, I got the wrong university name printed on my F1 visa and upon submission, got the corrected visa stamp within 2 days. (Didnt have 221g those days) The cancelled visa should read "CANCELLED WITHOUT PREJUDICE" to indicate that the visa was cancelled not because of the holder's fault.

I understand this can be a tense time. However, if you got the visa, just dont worry about it. Make sure you DO what you can DO... ie, keep a close tab on the status by making those aggravating calls to VFS and by submitting any docs they have asked for on 221. Also, keep your firm(s) in loop in case you need to delay your return ticket because of this delay. In summary - you will possibly lose some time, money, and peace, but you will get your visa soon enough.

Good luck... and update us when things get better.

[nishant2200]

This is it guys. If demand data shows up on friday, it will be friday or else monday. Betting odds are on monday for me, my brain says monday but heart says friday. Minimum 2 month move to max 5 month move of 1st april 2008.

[mysati]

Just like what several others mentioned in the forum, you need not panic. My parents had a similar experience 3 years back. Just provide whatever documents they asked for and you should be getting back your passport with a week. Like what Manubhai said, make sure that the older stamping is completely cancelled without any prejudice.

Sorry for cluttering the forum - Q - please remove this later to appropriate location.

As I had posted, I am in India with my wife for Diwali. We went to New Delhi Embassy for our H1B stamping - our interview was fine and quick (I work for a large Univ in Business School and she works for a large bank). We got our visas back in 3-4 days - all fine - except - they had printed our Employer Names wrong - wrong campus in my case and National Association in her case instead of North America (for HSBC N A). They asked her to submit the passports back for visa correction to VFS with a cover letter. We did that. No response for a week and finally today we got an email saying that the passport is for 221(g) administrative processing.

This is such a shock to us. We are on H1B for more than 3 years and this was just a reissue of the visa. There is nothing in our background that will inspire suspicion. We even had the visa - it was their mistake that they printed our employer name wrong (BOTH OF THEM!) - and now we are stuck.

PLEASE if anyone has any thoughts on the way forward - please let me know. This is the first time I have ever had any immigration problem and don't know what to do. Please help.

[cantwaitlonger]

What is the probability of the dates for EB2-IC retrogressing? If so, when and how far back? If there's any prediction for this, pls point me to it!

[leo07]

It would be an insult to "slavery" to call us slaves. I'm sure you are venting out your frustration, as I have done in the past many times in my last 14 years. But in retrospect and remembering all the previous generations who had to go through real 'slavery', I honestly think you can't call H1B a slavery by any extent. Yes, there's exploitation,as I have been exposed to such many a time, but that was totally my choice.( helplessness??)

I really wouldn't call our situation or those described in your link "slavery".

[soggadu]

gang of all.... my 140 is approved from SRC texas service center... So where would my 485 be posted to?

[leo07]

T, I agree. If the dates move to Jan 1st 2008 then we can consider it as a cautious move by CO and can expect another forward movement in Jan 2012 VB.
In all, we must continue to remember that dates could retrogress anytime in 2012. So, if you are current don't even think of waiting to file your AOS for any reason. Push the envelope out to CIS as soon as you turn current.

[leo07]

Congrats. Same Service center.(TSC). Unless your job site changed, which will require you to file amendment in the new service center.( what ever that is).It doesn't look like yours changed, so you will send your envelope to TSC.

[leo07]

There's high probability of retrogression in EB2-IC, even if it is for couple of months through May 2012. Possible that August 1st 2007 will sustain even if the dates retrogress.

[bieber]

If the dates move to Jan 1st 2008 then we can consider it as a cautious move by CO and can expect another forward movement in Jan 2012 VB.

Leo07

I think it's opposite, if dates won't move to march1, 2008 or beyond in next bulletin I don't think there will be anymore movement in Jan/Feb

[cbpds1]

why are we talking abt predictions when CO has stated it will be atleast Mar-01-2008 ?, I think u shd predict anything more than mar 2008, isnt it? whats changed now.

This is it guys. If demand data shows up on friday, it will be friday or else monday. Betting odds are on monday for me, my brain says monday but heart says friday. Minimum 2 month move to max 5 month move of 1st april 2008.

[indiasunil]

gang of all.... my 140 is approved from SRC texas service center... So where would my 485 be posted to?

Food is ready - Wait in line - Its Buffet Queue.. :-)

[soggadu]

Food is ready - Wait in line - Its Buffet Queue.. :-)

arey uncle...when the person serving is one of us... we can stand/sit/sleep/bend any where samjhee.... also it is CO's queue not Buffet's....

coming to my question again... I got my 140 approved 2 years back when i was in texas and now i am in NJ... so where should my 485 go?????

[leo07]

bieber, Since these are assumptions over a very tiny period of time, I'm sure it can go either way. I see your point, but I'm thinking a 4 month surge would more or less indicate a highly speculative move by CO. Instead he would take 2 tiny months at a time to test his step. 4 month move would warrant an immediate retrogression as he doesn't have visas in pocket and congressmen breathing over his neck will only make his life worse.

[cbpds1]

however acc to murthy.com its going to be atleast mar 1 2008 for dec bulletin , isnt it?....im confused.

bieber, Since these are assumptions over a very tiny period of time, I'm sure it can go either way. I see your point, but I'm thinking a 4 month surge would more or less indicate a highly speculative move by CO. Instead he would take 2 tiny months at a time to test his step. 4 month move would warrant an immediate retrogression as he doesn't have visas in pocket and congressmen breathing over his neck will only make his life worse.