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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

  1. #1176
    About Tax returns and W2 etc for 485.

    Friends, I will just tell you what my lawyer asked for.

    He did ask for last 3 years tax returns, 3 years W2. I did not question why he wants that.

    My guess is that for AOS, you need to show that you have maintained status. For someone on H1, the one of those needs to maintain status might be that he got paid wages as offered in the LCA.

    Everyone's case is different, and based on situation and lawyer, documents asked maybe different.
    I am not a lawyer, and it's always best to consult an immigration attorney.

  2. #1177
    Quote Originally Posted by Gclongwait View Post
    Nishanth,

    Do you know what the exact diff is in EN1 and EB2 ROW between Oct 2011 inventory and Oct 2010 inventory? If you already have the numbers it will be good.
    http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD


    October 2010
    EB1 ROW: 4,751
    EB1 All: 7,595
    EB2 ROW: 8,859

    October 2011
    EB1 ROW: 8,028
    EB1 All: 14,072
    EB2 ROW: 10,184
    I am not a lawyer, and it's always best to consult an immigration attorney.

  3. #1178
    Thanks Nishanth and GCQ. I am going to try to FOIA route like you suggested.

  4. #1179
    My lawyer is also asking me to submit last two years w2 and tax returns. I have problem with my name all over the place due to unusually long name. My name is AAA BBBBBB CCCCCCCCCC and my father's name is XXXXXXXXX YYYYYYYYY. As per my passport the given name is AAA BBBBBB CCCCCCCCCC and the family name is XXXXXXXXX YYYYYYYYY. But in US, my name is just AAA BBBBBB CCCCCCCCCC for all every day things except for all immigration related papers. So, all my H1 and 140 have the full name, but my w2 and tax returns have only the given name part. To avoid any potential confusion, I am inclined to not submit the w2 and tax returns. Till date, I never had any problems due to the name mismatches and hoping that 485 will be smooth without any issues with this name confusion. Any suggestions please??

    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    About Tax returns and W2 etc for 485.

    Friends, I will just tell you what my lawyer asked for.

    He did ask for last 3 years tax returns, 3 years W2. I did not question why he wants that.

  5. #1180
    Sensei familyguy's Avatar
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    have to shop for lawyers now

    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    thank you buddy!

    familyguy, I think now you can celebrate.

  6. #1181
    Guru veni001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD


    October 2010
    EB1 ROW: 4,751
    EB1 All: 7,595
    EB2 ROW: 8,859

    October 2011
    EB1 ROW: 8,028
    EB1 All: 14,072
    EB2 ROW: 10,184
    That's ~47% increase(or ~8K) in EB1+EB2ROWMP pending applications in the past year!
    Last edited by veni001; 10-29-2011 at 12:39 PM.
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  7. #1182
    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    That's ~52% increase(or ~11K) in EB1+EB2ROWMP pending applications in the past year!
    Yes, and that's why its good they are doing intake early without considering all these variables.

    I was also amazed by amount of EB1 from India pending. Almost 4k.
    Last edited by nishant2200; 10-29-2011 at 09:49 AM.

  8. #1183
    Thanks. The language here is interesting - Fragomen is quoting DOS
    The State Department is planning to move EB-2 dates further ahead in December because there has been less green card demand than expected in recent months. Similar EB-2 advancements are possible in January and February 2012 if demand continues to be low.
    For prior four years, "demand" meant "visa demand".
    But now since there are less preadj cases, "demand" over here means "level of 485 filings relative to the supply DOS sees in 2012 fiscal" IMHO

    Quote Originally Posted by th5000th View Post
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  9. #1184
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    Quote Originally Posted by iatiam View Post
    Thanks Dec2007. While I wish I were "Dec 2007", I am glad that your ticket to freedom is one VB away.

    BTW its funny that some sort of slavery always existed in the US. Now they just call it H1B.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indentured_servant
    I really wouldn't call our situation or those described in your link "slavery".

  10. #1185
    vizcard, its perspective my friend. One's perspective is shaped by one's experiences. Looking at mine I have come to the conclusion that it is slavery if you end up working for a company lower in the food chain where there is too much anti immigration sentiment and your job becomes shit. If your company is up in the food chain, performance matters more than other factors and anti immigrant sentiment takes a backseat and H1 guy doesn't feel like a slave. Just my 2 cents.

    Quote Originally Posted by vizcard View Post
    I really wouldn't call our situation or those described in your link "slavery".
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  11. #1186
    It depends on situation, i know many people who does not want to go back to India for various reasons and they were tortured by their employer with out giving their documents and proper pay.
    My case was that i am lazy i cannot call salary but i am victim of this very horrible system ( if you compared to UK or australia or canada or newzealand or infact even India0

    Quote Originally Posted by vizcard View Post
    I really wouldn't call our situation or those described in your link "slavery".

  12. #1187
    Guru veni001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Yes, and that's why its good they are doing intake early without considering all these variables.

    I was also amazed by amount of EB1 from India pending. Almost 4k.
    Nishant,
    Only in the short run, assuming USCIS will clear this additiol backlog (only!) and also assume demand accross the board similar to FY2011 then that is ~8K less SOFAD for FY2012!
    Last edited by veni001; 10-29-2011 at 12:39 PM.
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  13. #1188
    Even my lawyer does not need W2 and tax returns for I-485. I know some of my friends working in mid-cap USA company were not asked for tax returns or W2. My general perception is that you don't need to submit tax returns, it is just an extra set of documents some lawyers submit.


    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    About Tax returns and W2 etc for 485.

    Friends, I will just tell you what my lawyer asked for.

    He did ask for last 3 years tax returns, 3 years W2. I did not question why he wants that.

    My guess is that for AOS, you need to show that you have maintained status. For someone on H1, the one of those needs to maintain status might be that he got paid wages as offered in the LCA.

    Everyone's case is different, and based on situation and lawyer, documents asked maybe different.

  14. #1189
    I checked the I-485 instructions and there they didn't mention about any pay stubs, w2 or tax returns. Only thing they asked for is EVL. The list my attorney sent me doesn't ask for either of these...



    Quote Originally Posted by Karma1979 View Post
    Even my lawyer does not need W2 and tax returns for I-485. I know some of my friends working in mid-cap USA company were not asked for tax returns or W2. My general perception is that you don't need to submit tax returns, it is just an extra set of documents some lawyers submit.

  15. #1190
    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    That's ~52% increase(or ~11K) in EB1+EB2ROWMP pending applications in the past year!
    Not 11k, 8k increase. Eb1 All includes eb1 row. So it's 6.5k increase in Eb1 and 1.5k approx in eb2 rowmp. A 1.5k increase can be discounted since it's very nominal considering 40k quota. I guess eb1 is not going to give more than 6k this time.

  16. #1191
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gclongwait View Post
    Not 11k, 8k increase. Eb1 All includes eb1 row. So it's 6.5k increase in Eb1 and 1.5k approx in eb2 rowmp. A 1.5k increase can be discounted since it's very nominal considering 40k quota. I guess eb1 is not going to give more than 6k this time.
    Gclongwait,
    You are correct it is ~8.1K, that is a significant increase (~47%).

    It could mean ~8k less SOFAD this year compared to last year!

    October 2010
    EB1 All: 7,595
    EB2 ROW: 8,859
    EB2 MP:1,056
    Total = 17,510

    October 2011
    EB1 All: 14,072
    EB2 ROW: 10,184
    EB2 MP:1,356
    Total = 25,612
    Last edited by veni001; 10-29-2011 at 12:41 PM.
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  17. #1192
    Veni

    This is a good post. I think on the balance this year we should see less SOFAD by 8K.

    If you think about it - if USCIS starts relaxing Kazarian then that 8K will jump to upto 16K (8K unprocessed demand from prior year + 8K from this year). But the chances are less.

    It is quite worrisome that EB2IC can't take EB1 spillover for granted because EB1 continues to have demand that matches or exceeds supply. In 2011 kazarian memo held EB1 processing back. Another worrisome thing isthat kazarian is resulting in more delay than denial or EB1 approvals. Which means EB1 demand continues to be there creating the potential to not only use its own quota but also utilize any EB5 spillover.

    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    Gclongwait,
    You are correct it is ~8.1K, that is a significant increase (~47%).

    It could mean ~8k less SOFAD this year compared to last year!

    October 2010
    EB1 All: 7,595
    EB2 ROW: 8,859
    EB2 MP:1,056
    Total = 17,510

    October 2011
    EB1 All: 14,072
    EB2 ROW: 10,184
    EB2 MP:1,356
    Total = 25,612
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  18. #1193
    Q, I also believe that this next VB is extremely critical. This VB might spell out various tweaks and adjustments that might happen due to close co-ordination between USCIS and DOS, to have the Eb1, Eb2ROW demand "regulated", if I may, such that the spurt (highest point region reached by Dec or maybe Jan VB) is made the peak point around which the next FY can also be started. I think both sides want to have ammunition such that:
    a. Categories that are current remain so for forseeable future
    b. Inventory for EB2IC is just around the comfort level that each FY's beginning intake is necessary and sufficient

    ps: After the 12k showdown this year between CO and USCIS, I hope the recent prediction announcement by CO was made with USCIS in agreement. I would really hate it if USCIS plays spoilsport. I really expect a high level of consensus and coordination between CO and USCIS, if the post july 2007 era is going to be successful for both of them, with regards to entire EB category.

    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Veni

    This is a good post. I think on the balance this year we should see less SOFAD by 8K.

    If you think about it - if USCIS starts relaxing Kazarian then that 8K will jump to upto 16K (8K unprocessed demand from prior year + 8K from this year). But the chances are less.

    It is quite worrisome that EB2IC can't take EB1 spillover for granted because EB1 continues to have demand that matches or exceeds supply. In 2011 kazarian memo held EB1 processing back. Another worrisome thing isthat kazarian is resulting in more delay than denial or EB1 approvals. Which means EB1 demand continues to be there creating the potential to not only use its own quota but also utilize any EB5 spillover.
    Last edited by nishant2200; 10-29-2011 at 01:10 PM.

  19. #1194
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    Quote Originally Posted by grnwtg View Post
    It depends on situation, i know many people who does not want to go back to India for various reasons and they were tortured by their employer with out giving their documents and proper pay.
    My case was that i am lazy i cannot call salary but i am victim of this very horrible system ( if you compared to UK or australia or canada or newzealand or infact even India0
    This system sucks but it still isn't close to being slavery. The fact is we have a CHOICE. Its a CHOICE we have made to a) come here and b) stay here. We can choose to go back to our home country or to any other country you mentioned. I have friends who have descended from "real" slaves so I apologize if I'm coming off as insensitive. I'm in the same boat as everyone else on this forum but I still feel I am better off that my peers in Canada, UK, Japan and India (countries where I actually have former classmates)

  20. #1195
    Friend, how much do you think should we consider worst case porting. I am open to points given by you or anyone. All I am trying to do is to understand the picture for upcoming year(s) like all of us here. I made few points about people doing masters, and also I think everyone who went to EB3 in 2008 and onwards, has gone only to reserve the PD, they are all going to port as soon as they can.

    My own analysis and teddy's input later on, showed max around 4k porting for last FY. So do we think we should stick to 4k for upcoming FY. What do you guys think. Believe me, I would be most happy myself due to vested interest.

    Quote Originally Posted by suninphx View Post
    No one can deny that porting is there and will continue.
    My point is as years go by we should be able to narrow down gap between actual and worst case scenario. Gap for this year is 42%. I have no problem with some one being conservative , but opinions needs to be refined based on the actual picture which is not happening IMHO
    As far as comments from DOS about porting goes - you know very well that they are not consistent at all about their opinion in this regard.

  21. #1196
    What I don't understand is that if they move dates upto mar 2008, then there really isn't going to be an immediate need to move it beyond. But its possible they will move it 4 months past that to generate sufficient demand and then retrogress.

    One thing is for sure ... these guys don't want to issue a single EAD unless they thing a case is close to being adjudicated in 4-5 months. Seen from other angle, it means, if your case becomes current, there is a very good chance that you will get a GC in 4-5 months.

    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Q, I also believe that this next VB is extremely critical. This VB might spell out various tweaks and adjustments that might happen due to close co-ordination between USCIS and DOS, to have the Eb1, Eb2ROW demand "regulated", if I may, such that the spurt (highest point region reached by Dec or maybe Jan VB) is made the peak point around which the next FY can also be started. I think both sides want to have ammunition such that:
    a. Categories that are current remain so for forseeable future
    b. Inventory for EB2IC is just around the comfort level that each FY's beginning intake is necessary and sufficient

    ps: After the 12k showdown this year between CO and USCIS, I hope the recent prediction announcement by CO was made with USCIS in agreement. I would really hate it if USCIS plays spoilsport. I really expect a high level of consensus and coordination between CO and USCIS, if the post july 2007 era is going to be successful for both of them, with regards to entire EB category.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  22. #1197
    Guru veni001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Veni

    This is a good post. I think on the balance this year we should see less SOFAD by 8K.

    If you think about it - if USCIS starts relaxing Kazarian then that 8K will jump to upto 16K (8K unprocessed demand from prior year + 8K from this year). But the chances are less.

    It is quite worrisome that EB2IC can't take EB1 spillover for granted because EB1 continues to have demand that matches or exceeds supply. In 2011 kazarian memo held EB1 processing back. Another worrisome thing isthat kazarian is resulting in more delay than denial or EB1 approvals. Which means EB1 demand continues to be there creating the potential to not only use its own quota but also utilize any EB5 spillover.
    Q,
    Exactly, that's the head wind for FY2012. Only FY2011 is an exception for EB1. October'11 inventory and current i140 backlog could easily consume all FY2012 EB1 quota, if not more!

    In addition, EB5 receipts & pending application are not showing any sign of downward trend as of August'11. Only hope for spillover for this year is EB2ROW-M-P & EB5, unless EB1 backlog continue to buildup through out the FY!
    Last edited by veni001; 10-29-2011 at 04:36 PM.
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  23. #1198
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    What I don't understand is that if they move dates upto mar 2008, then there really isn't going to be an immediate need to move it beyond. But its possible they will move it 4 months past that to generate sufficient demand and then retrogress.

    One thing is for sure ... these guys don't want to issue a single EAD unless they thing a case is close to being adjudicated in 4-5 months. Seen from other angle, it means, if your case becomes current, there is a very good chance that you will get a GC in 4-5 months.
    Q,

    Why do you think they do not want to issue EAD ?

  24. #1199
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stemcell View Post
    Q,

    Why do you think they do not want to issue EAD ?
    Stemcell,
    Based on Oct'11 inventory ~100k EB3 application pending & going through EAD renewal every other year, so USCIS may not want to double their work load!
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  25. #1200
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    [QUOTE=nishant2200;12205]Friend, how much do you think should we consider worst case porting. I am open to points given by you or anyone. All I am trying to do is to understand the picture for upcoming year(s) like all of us here. I made few points about people doing masters, and also I think everyone who went to EB3 in 2008 and onwards, has gone only to reserve the PD, they are all going to port as soon as they can.

    My own analysis and teddy's input later on, showed max around 4k porting for last FY. So do we think we should stick to 4k for upcoming FY. What do you guys think. Believe me, I would be most happy myself due to vested interest.[/]

    Option of doing masters was always there so nothing new there. Also, eb2,eb3 depends on job description than what degree you have. You can have PHd but still be only eligible for eb3 , based on job description.
    The people who are working for big shops it's extremely difficult to do eb2 in the same company. So, in most cases they have join new company. If new company is big shop they have to wait for couple of years before their process is started. If company small/ medium size then those guys are smart enough to figure out what you will do once you get GC. Hence they also delay process as much as possible. So this evens out across the years, in my opinion. I always go with mean of 3500 as porting level because I have a feeling that when we assume ratio 70:30 for eb2:eb3 we are absorbing some numbers there. Just my thoughts. We will see how it goes. It's going to be interesting.

    PS: Pending cases are really worrisome as Q and Venni pointed out.

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