EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[smuggymba]

It looks like EB1 India will become backlogged as well. There are 2,263 applications pending in 2011 alone. It does not bode well for EB2 IC in future years.

Infosys and CTS on a roll.

[kd2008]

Markup of HR3012 underway right now.

http://mfile.akamai.com/65764/live/r...p=39655&prop=n

[tanu_75]

Awesome news and absolutely great find. But I won't keep my hopes up, better to keep it low on the expectations. I think the following point was also interesting :

He noted that there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated — this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when retrogression may happen.

So it looks like even if he moves dates this month, he may keep those dates for a while and only retrogress when visas become available. So maybe a 4-5 month window to file for the lucky folks?

[self.coach]

Guys,

My lawyer just sent me this email:

Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC with Charles Oppenheim. Mr. Oppenheim reiterated the fact that in the employment-based context, each green card application case is “larger” than previously expected and instead of one visa number, if often includes two or three (because many primary beneficiaries have married and have children). However, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few months. On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).

EB-2 China and EB-2 India. These two categories are where the most action is going to be over the next few months. Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few visa bulletins. It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further. Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa Bulletins. Mr. Oppenheim cautioned, however, that if there is high demand (number of filings) in the EB-2 category, he may hold or even retrogress towards the summer of 2012. He noted that there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated — this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when retrogression may happen.

[grnwtg]

That great, so this is definetly geniune new, MR.CO just should think in same manner for couple of more months as he is thinking now.

As i was telling previously this is the most sensible act for him to do. Hopefully it will become reality..

Guys,

My lawyer just sent me this email:

Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC with Charles Oppenheim. Mr. Oppenheim reiterated the fact that in the employment-based context, each green card application case is “larger” than previously expected and instead of one visa number, if often includes two or three (because many primary beneficiaries have married and have children). However, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few months. On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).

EB-2 China and EB-2 India. These two categories are where the most action is going to be over the next few months. Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few visa bulletins. It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further. Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa Bulletins. Mr. Oppenheim cautioned, however, that if there is high demand (number of filings) in the EB-2 category, he may hold or even retrogress towards the summer of 2012. He noted that there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated — this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when retrogression may happen.

[nishant2200]

Thank you friend, if possible can u tell us a bit about ur law firm, and whether this was sent as newsletter etc.

Guys,

My lawyer just sent me this email:

Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC with Charles Oppenheim. Mr. Oppenheim reiterated the fact that in the employment-based context, each green card application case is “larger” than previously expected and instead of one visa number, if often includes two or three (because many primary beneficiaries have married and have children). However, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few months. On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).

EB-2 China and EB-2 India. These two categories are where the most action is going to be over the next few months. Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few visa bulletins. It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further. Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa Bulletins. Mr. Oppenheim cautioned, however, that if there is high demand (number of filings) in the EB-2 category, he may hold or even retrogress towards the summer of 2012. He noted that there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated — this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when retrogression may happen.

[familyguy]

Awesome news Mr.Rao... I sincerely wish this is true and will happen

Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points
EB-2 China and India will advance significantly over the next few visa bulletins. A possible slowdown (or retrogression) may come in the summer of 2012. EB-3 China and, specifically, India, will move very slowly and this category is “ridiculously” oversubscribed — very long times to be expected. Family-based dates will advance gradually.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/...tober-26-2011/

[grnwtg]

Here is similar prediction for 2011 last year incase if any one want to judge this prediction.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2010/...les-oppenheim/

Thank you friend, if possible can u tell us a bit about ur law firm, and whether this was sent as newsletter etc.

[self.coach]

Thank you friend, if possible can u tell us a bit about ur law firm, and whether this was sent as newsletter etc.

It is originally from a newsletter copy-pasted by my lawyer

The newsletter I see is from Capitol Immigration - the link provided by Rao in his post.

[shreyasai2004]

This link is not working and showing Access Denied.

Markup of HR3012 underway right now.

http://mfile.akamai.com/65764/live/r...p=39655&prop=n

[Reader]

Thank you friend, if possible can u tell us a bit about ur law firm, and whether this was sent as newsletter etc.

My guess is that it is from the same law firm for which Rao has published the link last night. The wordings are exact.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/...tober-26-2011/

[Eb2_Dec07]

Here is similar prediction for 2011 last year incase if any one want to judge this prediction.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2010/...les-oppenheim/

CIlaw is a pretty reputed organization and very well known to have access to DOS /USCIS inner circles. I think it is a good one. Def great news

[swagsur]

Very good News Folks.

Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points
EB-2 China and India will advance significantly over the next few visa bulletins. A possible slowdown (or retrogression) may come in the summer of 2012. EB-3 China and, specifically, India, will move very slowly and this category is “ridiculously” oversubscribed — very long times to be expected. Family-based dates will advance gradually.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/...tober-26-2011/

[rdsingh79]

Instructions for Fragomen to folks in our company remains unchanged....they wants folks with PD post Oct 2007 to be ready with I-485 documents in anticipation of dates moving forward.

Well that is so disappointing to hear. Fragomen is a very reputed law firm and I remember someone in this forum mentioned that some of their friends ( with PDs in Jan 2008) were asked to be prepared and be ready with the documents by Fragomen.

I guess it was rdsingh....rdsingh, do you have any insight or info on this??

[kd2008]

KD , great news! Happy Diwali!

Happy Diwali to you too!

[TeddyKoochu]

Thanks Narendra for posting. Since this commentary comes from the man himself it lends it good credibility. This is very much in line with our prediction as well that the next VB will cross 2007 atleast. Q1 2008 folks are borderline and best of luck to everyone. May force be with us and hope maximum number of people get to file for 485. Friends I urge all of you to not get carried away because the projections of the agencies keep changing very quickly often to extremes, good luck to everyone. The volume of intake is entirely discretionary however I believe they will not try to overshoot the consumption this year by a very big number because then it will prevent them from justifying the same for next year. Here is a chart purely out of my gut feel; I also pray that as many people get to file for 485. I do believe that the movement should happen in the next bulletin itself, if delayed the result will be lesser.
01-JAN-2008 - 100%
15-JAN-2008 - 75%
01-FEB-2008 - 50%
15-FEB-2008 - 30%
01-MAR-2008 - 20%
01-APR-2008 - 10%
"EB-2 China and EB-2 India. These two categories are where the most action is going to be over the next few months. Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few visa bulletins. It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further. Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa Bulletins. Mr. Oppenheim cautioned, however, that if there is high demand (number of filings) in the EB-2 category, he may hold or even retrogress towards the summer of 2012. He noted that there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated — this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when retrogression may happen."

[nishant2200]

Here is similar prediction for 2011 last year incase if any one want to judge this prediction.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2010/...les-oppenheim/

Ok, I clearly remember reading these words but somewhere else. So it proves to me:
1. CILA was not alone here, this is a stakeholders forum, and like last year, we should see this news trickling up in other law firms and AILA, NIU kind of stakeholders websites and newsletters.
2. Porting was considered a huge menace by them last year, they were frightened out of their socks, but it turns out that the SO was larger and Porting took a bit of a backseat to weak economy.
3. Parts of the stuff are generic like the introduction etc. but the part about the prediction is different. the part which even self.coach says he got emailed from his lawyer.

CO himself clearly mentioned in last years beginnings bulletin, that he expects EB2 India to move none, while China none to two weeks, in line with what's written here for 2010, unlike this years beginnings bulletin where he says significant move expected in future.

Compare his prediction in Dec 2010 Visa Bulletin: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5197.html

to the prediction he put in Nov 2011 Visa Bulletin: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5572.html

Guys, the policy of move in early Fiscal Year, that he himself mentions, will help people get in at least, it's not about giving GC, but being ready, and as mentioned by me earlier, is totally in line with his strategy with F2A last year, as well as it helps him take away the stuff of porting (random intermittent phenomena), USCIS variables like 140 backlog, processing times etc. out of the equation to bother him.

[leo07]

Teddy, Q,Nishanth,Veni,

I have not seen CO make such gutsy vb movements and statements like these before. I'm thinking that there is certainly a policy change or pressure from above to keep the line moving or in anticipation of some policy change to be revealed. It's definitely welcome news news for all our EBIC community.

That said, we all know for fact there's only 'n' number of toffees for EB2IC like each year and people would storm CIS with SR and congressional requests starting January 1st. So, IMHO, CO is betting with enough information and we must all celebrate if dates move forward for next 2 vbs.

[krishnav]

Nishant...good news for you..you will definetely get to apply Next month...very happy for you!! Good luck!!

Ok, I clearly remember reading these words but somewhere else. So it proves to me:
1. CILA was not alone here, this is a stakeholders forum, and like last year, we should see this news trickling up in other law firms and AILA, NIU kind of stakeholders websites and newsletters.
2. Porting was considered a huge menace by them last year, they were frightened out of their socks, but it turns out that the SO was larger and Porting took a bit of a backseat to weak economy.
3. Parts of the stuff are generic like the introduction etc. but the part about the prediction is different. the part which even self.coach says he got emailed from his lawyer.

CO himself clearly mentioned in last years beginnings bulletin, that he expects EB2 India to move none, while China none to two weeks, in line with what's written here for 2010, unlike this years beginnings bulletin where he says significant move expected in future.

Compare his prediction in Dec 2010 Visa Bulletin: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5197.html

to the prediction he put in Nov 2011 Visa Bulletin: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5572.html

Guys, the policy of move in early Fiscal Year, that he himself mentions, will help people get in at least, it's not about giving GC, but being ready, and as mentioned by me earlier, is totally in line with his strategy with F2A last year, as well as it helps him take away the stuff of porting (random intermittent phenomena), USCIS variables like 140 backlog, processing times etc. out of the equation to bother him.

[nishant2200]

Thanks for sharing, appreciate it, already have this information from a State Department source we all have available.

Mr. XYZ
Address etc...

This message is intended only for the addressee(s) and may contain information that is confidential and highly privileged. Any unauthorized use is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful.

In a message dated 10/27/2011 10:09:07 A.M. Pacific Daylight Time, me@company.com writes:
Dear Mr. XYZ,
I thought I will share this with you. May help many of your clients including family based.
http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/...tober-26-2011/
Looks like some stakeholders meeting like AILA with Mr. Oppenheim in DC.
Thanks,
Nishant

[nishant2200]

Murthy puts newflash:


NewsFlash! EB2 Cutoff of March 1, 2008 Expected in December!
Posted 27.Oct.2011
The cutoff date for the employment-based, second preference (EB2) category for India and China is expected to advance to at least March 1, 2008 in the December 2011 Visa Bulletin. This prediction is reliable, as we received it directly from Mr. Charles Oppenheim, Chief, Immigrant Visa and Control Division, U.S. Department of State. The continued forward movement will allow for many additional individuals to pursue the final stage of their permanent residence (green card) cases in December 2011. More details and predictions for the future will be provided for MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers.

[familyguy]

Thank you god.. thank q, thank q, thank q, thank q

Murthy puts newflash:


NewsFlash! EB2 Cutoff of March 1, 2008 Expected in December!
Posted 27.Oct.2011
The cutoff date for the employment-based, second preference (EB2) category for India and China is expected to advance to at least March 1, 2008 in the December 2011 Visa Bulletin. This prediction is reliable, as we received it directly from Mr. Charles Oppenheim, Chief, Immigrant Visa and Control Division, U.S. Department of State. The continued forward movement will allow for many additional individuals to pursue the final stage of their permanent residence (green card) cases in December 2011. More details and predictions for the future will be provided for MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers.

[polapragada]

Murthy puts newflash:


NewsFlash! EB2 Cutoff of March 1, 2008 Expected in December!
Posted 27.Oct.2011
The cutoff date for the employment-based, second preference (EB2) category for India and China is expected to advance to at least March 1, 2008 in the December 2011 Visa Bulletin. This prediction is reliable, as we received it directly from Mr. Charles Oppenheim, Chief, Immigrant Visa and Control Division, U.S. Department of State. The continued forward movement will allow for many additional individuals to pursue the final stage of their permanent residence (green card) cases in December 2011. More details and predictions for the future will be provided for MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers.

Nishant - Can you post the Murthy link? I don't see this news flash there! did they removed it or what?

BTW I am with a confused heart now..my PD is 07MAR2008 hoping some day I will cross that small hurdle

[Eb2_Dec07]

Nishant - Can you post the Murthy link? I don't see this news flash there! did they removed it or what?

BTW I am with a confused heart now..my PD is 07MAR2008 hoping some day I will cross that small hurdle

Pola, dont lose heart , that is the minimum they are expecting . In case if you miss by few days you will be current in the next vb . We are all in it together. let's hope for the best .

[nishant2200]

Nishant - Can you post the Murthy link? I don't see this news flash there! did they removed it or what?

BTW I am with a confused heart now..my PD is 07MAR2008 hoping some day I will cross that small hurdle

polar, it's right there on their home page. http://murthy.com/