EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[qblogfan]

agree, Mr.CO seldom writes any positive things in VB. It is kind of special this time. But he is also unstable and unpredictable. Nobody knows what he will do.

Yes, they can write whatever s*** and we'll lap it up, point taken.

However I don't think I've seen them make such an explicit positive statement about future movement. In my experience (in fact, I think I'll still get nightmares about VB movement even after I get my GC), they tend to defend or predict negative moves, but I haven't seen them predict positive on future movement. Probably because they haven't seen this situation in the past 4-5 years where they don't have 50k applications ready to go. So I think this is unique and there's a very good chance of dates moving before the end of this year. Now the definition of "significant", your guess is as good as mine. Could be 2 months, 6 months, 1 year.

[cbpds1]

just imagine how CO will feel if he visits this website .....cold blooded+unstable+ unpredictable=sadistic mental retard

agree, Mr.CO seldom writes any positive things in VB. It is kind of special this time. But he is also unstable and unpredictable. Nobody knows what he will do.

[grnwtg]

Yes, i too dont remember when a visa bulletin was this optimistic, probably i might have missed but definetly this is positive.
As i have been telling from some time, it will be bad way of operating an office if they dont take atleast 30k to 35k new applications eventhough they might need only 25k application for this year.

Yes, they can write whatever s*** and we'll lap it up, point taken.

However I don't think I've seen them make such an explicit positive statement about future movement. In my experience (in fact, I think I'll still get nightmares about VB movement even after I get my GC), they tend to defend or predict negative moves, but I haven't seen them predict positive on future movement. Probably because they haven't seen this situation in the past 4-5 years where they don't have 50k applications ready to go. So I think this is unique and there's a very good chance of dates moving before the end of this year. Now the definition of "significant", your guess is as good as mine. Could be 2 months, 6 months, 1 year.

[vizcard]

just imagine how CO will feel if he visits this website .....cold blooded+unstable+ unpredictable=sadistic mental retard

Well I hope thats not all he takes from this site. The logical analysis here would be useful to him too :P

[bieber]

Nishanth, Thanks

grnwtg, I don't know if he has to take only one year quota, it got to be atleast, just a thought but he may consider taking couple of years (i will be in with 1 yr itself, just in case if anyone wonders )

[nishant2200]

I think EB2-I PERMs are at least 50% of the total PERM and EB2-C are at least 10%. That leaves maximum 40% ROW PERMs.

guys, also some of these would be porters from EB3 to EB2, as well as EB2 to EB2 if someone changed jobs, they need new 140 approval also

[nishant2200]

I agree with this observation, they don't make such nice future prediction out in the open.

Yes, they can write whatever s*** and we'll lap it up, point taken.

However I don't think I've seen them make such an explicit positive statement about future movement. In my experience (in fact, I think I'll still get nightmares about VB movement even after I get my GC), they tend to defend or predict negative moves, but I haven't seen them predict positive on future movement. Probably because they haven't seen this situation in the past 4-5 years where they don't have 50k applications ready to go. So I think this is unique and there's a very good chance of dates moving before the end of this year. Now the definition of "significant", your guess is as good as mine. Could be 2 months, 6 months, 1 year.

[immi2910]

I think EB2-I PERMs are at least 50% of the total PERM and EB2-C are at least 10%. That leaves maximum 40% ROW PERMs.

Assumptions:
- EB2 IC is 70% of all EB2+3 IC PERM applications (see my other posts for reasons)
- EB2 ROW is 50% of all EB2+3 ROW PERM applications (guess)
- EB1 IC to EB1 ROW ratio is similar to EB2+3 ratios

Calculation:
Total PERM applications with PD 07/2007 to 06/2011 = 199,525
IC PERM applications with PD 07/2007 to 06/2011 = 95,260

Therefore, EB2 IC to EB2 Total ratio = (95,260 * 0.7)/(199,525 * 0.5) ~ 67%

Summary:
Thus, EB2 IC is 67% and EB2 ROW is 33%.

[nishant2200]

thank you immi2910!

Based on this assumption, So if one assumes say ROW 33%, and also let's say 7% is porters, then 40% of the 140 are for ROW + Porters, and 10k would be the effect of backlog reduction considering that they stick to 25k pending level despite of new incoming 140 applications. Taking 80% approval rate of I-140 assumption, then it would be 8k impact on SOFAD, based on this particular calculation. But this SOFAD decrease also takes into account around 1.7k decrease due to porting, that we can keep in mind when correlating with Spec's tables. Or we can say it only impacts 6.3k SOFAD, and we keep porting seperate. This brings it darn close to the 5-6k SOFAD shown by Q's rollover post earlier.

Assumptions:
- EB2 IC is 70% of all EB2+3 IC PERM applications (see my other posts for reasons)
- EB2 ROW is 50% of all EB2+3 ROW PERM applications (guess)
- EB1 IC to EB1 ROW ratio is similar to EB2+3 ratios

Calculation:
Total PERM applications with PD 07/2007 to 06/2011 = 199,525
IC PERM applications with PD 07/2007 to 06/2011 = 95,260

Therefore, EB2 IC to EB2 Total ratio = (95,260 * 0.7)/(199,525 * 0.5) ~ 67%

Summary:
Thus, EB2 IC is 67% and EB2 ROW is 33%.

[vizcard]

Has Spec's table been "ported over" (couldn't resist!) to this thread. I know it was in 2011 thread and I looked at the first couple of pages here and didn't see it.

[nishant2200]

Has Spec's table been "ported over" (couldn't resist!) to this thread. I know it was in 2011 thread and I looked at the first couple of pages here and didn't see it.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011

this is probably what you are looking for

[vizcard]

gracias nishant

[grnwtg]

With below assumption, 5-6k is true but we have to assume that there will be very minimum backlog of I140 by the end of year which i think is not possible. So i guess some percent of 5-6k can be reduced.

thank you immi2910!

Based on this assumption, So if one assumes say ROW 33%, and also let's say 7% is porters, then 40% of the 140 are for ROW + Porters, and 10k would be the effect of backlog reduction considering that they stick to 25k pending level despite of new incoming 140 applications. Taking 80% approval rate of I-140 assumption, then it would be 8k impact on SOFAD, based on this particular calculation. But this SOFAD decrease also takes into account around 1.7k decrease due to porting, that we can keep in mind when correlating with Spec's tables. Or we can say it only impacts 6.3k SOFAD, and we keep porting seperate. This brings it darn close to the 5-6k SOFAD shown by Q's rollover post earlier.

[shaumack]

May vs June - big deal! .

Pointing May VB was never meant to criticize you but to backup statement that as per interpretation of law (or you can say My interpretation), quarterly spillover can only commence in March-April, and since May VB is released in the April this is the best case that is ever seen or will be seen for use of such visas.There is no precedence to anything better than this previously and may not happen in future. We will see.

The point being it should be happening every quarter and is not happening. This quarter is the first quarter when QSP may be happening. Lets see how it goes.

It is too early to say any kind of QSP is happening as we have just seen EB2 I/C approvals for October VB which is well within annual limit for I & C together. Even after this, not all those current in October have received GCs yet. Apart from this, November VB approvals are yet to be seen, which would really complete use of 8075 visas. That said, even if November VB approvals will happen, no one would know where those numbers came from unless DOS explains it explicitly. If DOS is doing QSP without stating it then this may be one time thing and this may not happen again in future. 27% annual limit of EB2 is 10800 and as long as DOS can keep total EB2 approvals (I/C/ROW/M/P) below this number until Q3 or till real spillover starts, they can very well justify such movement. This would clearly justify no urgency in reducing EB2 I-140 backlog at USCIS. Lots of conspiracy theory can be framed but reality will still be unknown.

This is good discussion. Don't worry about focus. This is right up our alley. Difference in opinion is good. That's where one learns something.

I am glad you are taking this positively but this is it from me for sometime until I/we have more comprehensive info/explanation on availability of visas that allowed approvals for IC in Oct-Nov VB.

[vizcard]

shaumack - QSP can begin in Jan ... it does not have to wait till April / May. As posted above your definition of calendar quarter is incorrect. That being said, the implications are still the same (or better). Using the visas early in the year, hopefully allows him to continue moving dates before he gets a sense of "true SO".

[qesehmk]

I hear you. But lets agree to disagree. Thanks.

Pointing May VB was never meant to criticize you but to backup statement that as per interpretation of law (or you can say My interpretation), quarterly spillover can only commence in March-April, and since May VB is released in the April this is the best case that is ever seen or will be seen for use of such visas.There is no precedence to anything better than this previously and may not happen in future. We will see.


It is too early to say any kind of QSP is happening as we have just seen EB2 I/C approvals for October VB which is well within annual limit for I & C together. Even after this, not all those current in October have received GCs yet. Apart from this, November VB approvals are yet to be seen, which would really complete use of 8075 visas. That said, even if November VB approvals will happen, no one would know where those numbers came from unless DOS explains it explicitly. If DOS is doing QSP without stating it then this may be one time thing and this may not happen again in future. 27% annual limit of EB2 is 10800 and as long as DOS can keep total EB2 approvals (I/C/ROW/M/P) below this number until Q3 or till real spillover starts, they can very well justify such movement. This would clearly justify no urgency in reducing EB2 I-140 backlog at USCIS. Lots of conspiracy theory can be framed but reality will still be unknown.

I am glad you are taking this positively but this is it from me for sometime until I/we have more comprehensive info/explanation on availability of visas that allowed approvals for IC in Oct-Nov VB.

[soggadu]

for the benefit of all

"$985. (Add $85 biometric fee for a total of $1070, where applicable. See the form instructions for payment details.) You must make your check payable to Department of Homeland Security."

Dont use short names like US DHS and US CIS...

Also, the 485 discussion thread is closed... gang of gurus, please make sure all the threads are open so that we can post info accordingly...

[leo4ever]

Dear Friends,

Happy Diwali. May this Diwali bring you lots of happiness and Joy (apart from petty good news like GC).

Wish all of you and your family a very happy diwali & prosperous new year (with GC).

May God fulfill all your wishes in wealth, health, happiness & GC in your life.

[qesehmk]

Thanks soggadu. Opened 485 thread. Must havebeen clsoed by mistake by one of us!

Happy Diwali to All. And a happy new year. May the new year bring new hope, new things, peace, happiness, prosperity or for some simply the GC and everything will follow.

[Monica12]

Happy Diwali, everyone !!!!

[qblogfan]

Happy Diwali to all! I hope you guys can get GC and visit families in India in the next Diwali!

Thanks soggadu. Opened 485 thread. Must havebeen clsoed by mistake by one of us!

Happy Diwali to All. And a happy new year. May the new year bring new hope, new things, peace, happiness, prosperity or for some simply the GC and everything will follow.

[TeddyKoochu]

A very very happy, prosperous, enlightening and bright Diwali to you and your families. May this journey of GC end soon for all of us waiting.

[baba2s]

May This Diwali be as bright as ever.
May this Diwali bring joy, health and wealth to you.
May the festival of lights brighten up you and your near and dear ones lives.
May this Diwali bring you the utmost in peace and prosperity.
May lights triumph over darkness.
May the spirit of light illuminate the world.
May the light that we celebrate at Diwali show us the way and lead us
together on the path of peace and social harmony
"WISH U ALL A VERY HAPPY DIWALI"


Diwali Par Sky Saja do
Fireworks Se Dhoom Macha Do!!
Happy Diwali To All!!

Baray hon ya chottay aap
Amma hon ya kisi k baap

Diwali par ho fun non stop
Kisi ko na rokain aap!!

Happy Diwali!!

[needid]

My attorney asked to pay a single check (attorney fee +All application Fee),hmm 5K+, They would take care of paying to USCIS.

for the benefit of all

"$985. (Add $85 biometric fee for a total of $1070, where applicable. See the form instructions for payment details.) You must make your check payable to Department of Homeland Security."

Dont use short names like US DHS and US CIS...

Also, the 485 discussion thread is closed... gang of gurus, please make sure all the threads are open so that we can post info accordingly...

[nishant2200]

My recent H4 extension check for my wife was encashed by them as an electronic ACH debit, I do remember though that they used to do paper checks a while back, because people used to see their receipt numbers in advance from the check image.

but if they indeed are converting the checks into electronic debit authorization, then IMHO it don't matter really if you put USCIS, DHS, US DHS, Depart of Homeland Security and so on. The banks are going to trust the authority of the vendor who has been granted such trust facility and honor the incoming request for payment. Anyways, just a theory like many others I put out! We should still do what we think is right.

for the benefit of all

"$985. (Add $85 biometric fee for a total of $1070, where applicable. See the form instructions for payment details.) You must make your check payable to Department of Homeland Security."

Dont use short names like US DHS and US CIS...

Also, the 485 discussion thread is closed... gang of gurus, please make sure all the threads are open so that we can post info accordingly...