EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[dec2007]

What a date! It means ur lawyer was working hard for u on new year eve and filed the PERM before he went off to party!

I must agree that I had a great lawyer...he was pushing me to submit my paperwork..
the whole labor process took only 4-5 months...start to approval.

hope to see my date soon...

[red2green]

Some interesting Q&As from an ex 485- Adjudicator. Sorry if it is already posted & discussed here.

http://www.visajourney.com/content/adjudicator-q-and-a

[smuggymba]

Totally my bad! Sorry smugymba!

no problemo. Can you update the thread and post you views once HR3012 is passed. Thanks as always.

[nishant2200]

Some interesting Q&As from an ex 485- Adjudicator. Sorry if it is already posted & discussed here.

http://www.visajourney.com/content/adjudicator-q-and-a

Very very enjoyable reading, thank you. Two notes:

1. Don't like congressional inquiry.
2. Everything is paper file based.

[qesehmk]

I agree about the chances of it passing as slim to none. I was only responding to "What if"!

This post falls squarely in the "Predictions" category as opposed to "Calculations

the odds of HR3012 getting passed before the Presidential elections at the end of 2012 are slim to none (and slim is losing!)

[vizcard]

I agree about the chances of it passing as slim to none. I was only responding to "What if"!

I know Q. I know. I'm on the bubble for 2012 EAD so any "positive" news gets me perked up.

[gcseeker]

I just saw this article in the Hindu newspaper. I have known this for a very long time just based on personal and ancedotal experiences. Now we have it straight from the horse's mouth. US consulate in Chennai did an study of the applications it had received in 2008 and 2009 and documented the highest centres with documentation fraud.No wonder even genuine applicants are getting hit with an 221(g) if you get an appointment at the city mentioned in the article.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/the-ind...cle1712443.ece

Both types of fraud was documented (immigrant and non immigrant) . I just hope they do an study for the EB1C category as well in the various cities and they will find a lot more.

[qblogfan]

I agree. The chance is too slim. It's all bluffing on ** website.

I agree about the chances of it passing as slim to none. I was only responding to "What if"!

[immi2910]

I just saw this article in the Hindu newspaper. I have known this for a very long time just based on personal and ancedotal experiences. Now we have it straight from the horse's mouth. US consulate in Chennai did an study of the applications it had received in 2008 and 2009 and documented the highest centres with documentation fraud.No wonder even genuine applicants are getting hit with an 221(g) if you get an appointment at the city mentioned in the article.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/the-ind...cle1712443.ece

Both types of fraud was documented (immigrant and non immigrant) . I just hope they do an study for the EB1C category as well in the various cities and they will find a lot more.

I think it is important to keep in mind that the number of cases are minuscule 3083/756,000 or 0.41% of total Non Immigrant Visa applications. In addition not all are related to H1B. Therefore, I think this is not the real reason for all the 221(g). Also, in most cases the 221(g) is reaffirmed by USCIS. However, it just takes 3 to 4 months.

[nishant2200]

Hey Teddy and others, after the August 2011 update, the delta between what it was last year at this time, is now 25,160 minus 20,831 is just 4,329 compared to July 11 vs July 10 which was 10.5k which you pointed out earlier.

Now considering that this happened in August 2011, and was the reason for the surprise huge USCIS pointed out demand for EB1, EB2 ROW, we can say that the difference delta is just 4.3k instead of 10.5k for year to year compare. Once they release September 2011 dashboard data, maybe the 4.3k can come down even further comparing Sep 2011 vs Sep 2010, and hopefully the movement stoppage for Sep VB FY 2011 took care of this damage we may think, save maybe 2k (a number I am throwing out of the hat).

Do you think that the backlog is a bit of a less concern now, I am not saying it is totally gone, but maybe earlier it was 9 out of 10 on scale of messing us up, and now it is 5 out of 10.

[TeddyKoochu]

Hey Teddy and others, after the August 2011 update, the delta between what it was last year at this time, is now 25,160 minus 20,831 is just 4,329 compared to July 11 vs July 10 which was 10.5k which you pointed out earlier.

Now considering that this happened in August 2011, and was the reason for the surprise huge USCIS pointed out demand for EB1, EB2 ROW, we can say that the difference delta is just 4.3k instead of 10.5k for year to year compare. Once they release September 2011 dashboard data, maybe the 4.3k can come down even further comparing Sep 2011 vs Sep 2010, and hopefully the movement stoppage for Sep VB FY 2011 took care of this damage we may think, save maybe 2k (a number I am throwing out of the hat).
Do you think that the backlog is a bit of a less concern now, I am not saying it is totally gone, but maybe earlier it was 9 out of 10 on scale of messing us up, and now it is 5 out of 10.

Nishant thanks for this update. Aug 2011 saw an almost unprecedented number of I140 approvals. It was the May - Jun approval trend that hurt the Aug and Sep VB. Normally there would be a 2 month time lag in I140 hitting the I485 queue. The overall backlog is still at 25K level which is still 10K higher than last year. It will be interesting to see how USCIS intends to clear it. Clearing it out too fast and now itself will hurt the SOFAD for this year. The demand intake if it happens sooner something like next month will not be impacted even if I140 backlog is cleared out. I would say 5-10 is out of the bag as the backlog was at 35K now its 25K it has to come down to 15K. We probably have felt the impact of only 3-10. Let’s keep a watch on the dashboard and the approval trends for EB2 ROW and EB1.

The additional 4.3K delta might mean similar number of EB2 ROW + EB1 applications. Lets normalize this to 3K. So potentially if I140 backlog were to be brought to same levels as last year then SOFAD would diminish by as much as 10K. This would impact actual GC issuance more than the demand intake. Lets pray for all friends that their date becomes current in the next bulletin. Later will be more difficult.

[nishant2200]

Thank you Teddy. I was too afraid to say it myself, but I agree that 15k is the level the agencies might be comfortable with to show their books clean.

Watching approval trends for EB2ROW and EB1 correlated with the dashboard is the key as you said.

Nishant thanks for this update. Aug 2011 saw an almost unprecedented number of I140 approvals. It was the May - Jun approval trend that hurt the Aug and Sep VB. Normally there would be a 2 month time lag in I140 hitting the I485 queue. The overall backlog is still at 25K level which is still 10K higher than last year. It will be interesting to see how USCIS intends to clear it. Clearing it out too fast and now itself will hurt the SOFAD for this year. The demand intake if it happens sooner something like next month will not be impacted even if I140 backlog is cleared out. I would say 5-10 is out of the bag as the backlog was at 35K now its 25K it has to come down to 15K. We probably have felt the impact of only 3-10. Let’s keep a watch on the dashboard and the approval trends for EB2 ROW and EB1.

The additional 4.3K delta might mean similar number of EB2 ROW + EB1 applications. Lets normalize this to 3K. So potentially if I140 backlog were to be brought to same levels as last year then SOFAD would diminish by as much as 10K. This would impact actual GC issuance more than the demand intake. Lets pray for all friends that their date becomes current in the next bulletin. Later will be more difficult.

[soggadu]

guys and guru's... is it really important to file 485 on the first day itself? please let me know.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Thank you Teddy. I was too afraid to say it myself, but I agree that 15k is the level the agencies might be comfortable with to show their books clean.

Watching approval trends for EB2ROW and EB1 correlated with the dashboard is the key as you said.

Nishant/ Teddy , what does this mean to cut-off dates for receiving GCs for fiscal 2012. Now does this impact how much of swing CO will make forward to capture the demand . Earlier projections I believe were onto March/Apr 2008 . What's your gut feeling for the next vb ? How much of a significance will the next VB be for the coming months. Also are we able to correct the SOFAD to around 15K range . Gosh it doesn't sound very good .

[nishant2200]

Nishant/ Teddy , what does this mean to cut-off dates for receiving GCs for fiscal 2012. Now does this impact how much of swing CO will make forward to capture the demand . Earlier projections I believe were onto March/Apr 2008 . What's your gut feeling for the next vb ? How much of a significance will the next VB be for the coming months. Also are we able to correct the SOFAD to around 15K range . Gosh it doesn't sound very good .

Ok, here's my rough take on this.

FY 2011 SOFAD was 30k.

If we take worst case situation of 10k backlog reduction to get stockpile to 15k pending 140, and if we consider all other things remain same (SYA same year approvals for EB1, EB2ROW, incoming rate because of bad economy, scrutiny on H1, EB1 Kazarian, and so on), then let's take SOFAD reduced by 8k (assuming 2k denials for 140, 80% approval rate), hence 22k SOFAD.

Now let's think about encouraged EB5, and EB1C (multinational manager) PP (premium processing which may begin next year), so let's take 4k further SOFAD reduction.

This brings worst case SOFAD to be 18k.

How far can 18k SOFAD take you. that can be seen in Spec's table in facts and data, with your own porting estimate plugged in.

Now, I do think that CO will not go into about what can happen this FY 2012 because of what is USCIS's strategy in terms of 140 backlog reduction, or EB5 encouragement, or EB1C PP etc. What he will take into account is how much SOFAD happened in past trend, and looking at last year, and even year before that, it has to be 30k figure plus a buffer of some number as you can't assume 100% 485 approval rate, although I suspect it must be pretty close to it.

To get to 30k figure, again if you see Spec's table, dates have to reach April 2008 whereabouts. And for these to be meaningfully available for any SO in Q4 FY 2012, they need to be in 6 months earlier, and hence, Q's take that before March 2012, dates should move till around April 2008.

So this does prove why CO put he anticipates significant date movement, mind that, for him I think even 3 months more might be significant, so we can't think significant means a year.

My gut feeling is 1st January 2008 for next VB, I would have said with much more certainty if CO had not put the words : not on a monthly basis, I frankly have been very tormented by those words, they don't make sense.

If he follows F2A FB strategy he did last year, he has to move this next VB. In this last year, what he did was he initially moved in quantity of 3 months around, and in the last two VB, he moved 2 months a piece. This year for EB2 I/C, he has moved 3 months, 3.5 months, so what's next.

So I have understood why he mentioned he anticipates significant date movement ahead, but I don't understand why he said not on a monthly basis. I am not ready to believe CO will try quarterly spillover in this day and age where there is so much 140 backlog for EB1 and EB2ROW. In fact if you ask someone like Ron Gotcher, he does not see where we think quarterly spillover is also allowed as per law.

[TeddyKoochu]

Nishant/ Teddy , what does this mean to cut-off dates for receiving GCs for fiscal 2012. Now does this impact how much of swing CO will make forward to capture the demand . Earlier projections I believe were onto March/Apr 2008 . What's your gut feeling for the next vb ? How much of a significance will the next VB be for the coming months. Also are we able to correct the SOFAD to around 15K range . Gosh it doesn't sound very good .

If the demand capture happens sooner like next bulletin itself there will be minimal impact on that. However actual approvals will be far lower if the entire backlog were to be cleared. My projection has always been a little conservative than all others because of the I140 backlog itself. Last year was the Eb1 year in terms of SOFAD because the Kazarian memo slowed down I140 approvals but the applications never came down, however if they choose to clearing he I140backlog then most of the EB1 related SOFAD will disappear. This will move things towards the worst case scenario. Let’s keep a watch on this but too early to panic. Let’s wait to hear what Q, Veni & Spec have to say on this.

[dec2007]

Ok, here's my rough take on this.

FY 2011 SOFAD was 30k.

If we take worst case situation of 10k backlog reduction to get stockpile to 15k pending 140, and if we consider all other things remain same (SYA same year approvals for EB1, EB2ROW, incoming rate because of bad economy, scrutiny on H1, EB1 Kazarian, and so on), then let's take SOFAD reduced by 8k (assuming 2k denials for 140, 80% approval rate), hence 22k SOFAD.

Now let's think about encouraged EB5, and EB1C (multinational manager) PP (premium processing which may begin next year), so let's take 4k further SOFAD reduction.

This brings worst case SOFAD to be 18k.

How far can 18k SOFAD take you. that can be seen in Spec's table in facts and data, with your own porting estimate plugged in.

Now, I do think that CO will not go into about what can happen this FY 2012 because of what is USCIS's strategy in terms of 140 backlog reduction, or EB5 encouragement, or EB1C PP etc. What he will take into account is how much SOFAD happened in past trend, and looking at last year, and even year before that, it has to be 30k figure plus a buffer of some number as you can't assume 100% 485 approval rate, although I suspect it must be pretty close to it.

To get to 30k figure, again if you see Spec's table, dates have to reach April 2008 whereabouts. And for these to be meaningfully available for any SO in Q4 FY 2012, they need to be in 6 months earlier, and hence, Q's take that before March 2012, dates should move till around April 2008.

So this does prove why CO put he anticipates significant date movement, mind that, for him I think even 3 months more might be significant, so we can't think significant means a year.

My gut feeling is 1st January 2008 for next VB, I would have said with much more certainty if CO had not put the words : not on a monthly basis, I frankly have been very tormented by those words, they don't make sense.

If he follows F2A FB strategy he did last year, he has to move this next VB. In this last year, what he did was he initially moved in quantity of 3 months around, and in the last two VB, he moved 2 months a piece. This year for EB2 I/C, he has moved 3 months, 3.5 months, so what's next.

So I have understood why he mentioned he anticipates significant date movement ahead, but I don't understand why he said not on a monthly basis. I am not ready to believe CO will try quarterly spillover in this day and age where there is so much 140 backlog for EB1 and EB2ROW. In fact if you ask someone like Ron Gotcher, he does not see where we think quarterly spillover is also allowed as per law.

Nishanth Bhai..keep saying that magic date , Jan 1, 2008.

[nishant2200]

Nishanth Bhai..keep saying that magic date , Jan 1, 2008.

And believe me, I feel really sorry for anyone on the right side of this date and missing out. I know how it feels, I have been feeling that since last 3 weeks. It's not something you wish on an enemy also. If you talk about my wish or dream, I would pray for best case of mid 2008 huge BTM in one shot.

[Monica12]

guys and guru's... is it really important to file 485 on the first day itself? please let me know.

Teddy has put it very nicely. Trackitt approvals, atleast for NSC is showing that people with earlier receipt/notice dates are getting approvals first. There are a few exceptions but mostly I think they approving by ND. Also, some L2 officers have mentioned to people that cases are being approved by notice/receipt date. Obviously, no one knows for sure. My notice date was way behind but I still got approval earlier. Maybe it was because of the Congressional enquiry ?
But, it's very important to get everything in order and fill application properly even if you file few days later. Because otherwise a RFE will delay things anyways.

[sandeep11]

Nishant/Dec_2007,

I am in the same boat, while I really hope and wish that my friends beyond 2008 get to file their 485 I personally wanted ( i am being honest here) to get onboard this coming next VB. Being so close to getting Current and to wait for the next VB is a pain. I really wish your words of Mid 2008 and beyond (BTM) comes true.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Nishant/Dec_2007,

I am in the same boat, while I really hope and wish that my friends beyond 2008 get to file their 485 I personally wanted ( i am being honest here) to get onboard this coming next VB. Being so close to getting Current and to wait for the next VB is a pain. I really wish your words of Mid 2008 and beyond (BTM) comes true.

Sandeep, wats your PD ? I agree , ever since last VB came out , it has been a gut wrenching experience for me . Now that we are so close yet so far , it is really hanging in the balance. Everyday I literally scour through every page for any little info I could devour. I'm actually getting all my medicals scheduled ahead of next VB to just have everything in order to fly the paperwork to my attorney if it becomes current. Let's hope there is reprieve for many others . End of the day , all we can do is just hope for the best , but I must say these guys Q, Nishant , Teddy , Veni and all others are doing such a great job ,besides sharing their valuable insights they are really making our wait bearable.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Ok, here's my rough take on this.

FY 2011 SOFAD was 30k.

If we take worst case situation of 10k backlog reduction to get stockpile to 15k pending 140, and if we consider all other things remain same (SYA same year approvals for EB1, EB2ROW, incoming rate because of bad economy, scrutiny on H1, EB1 Kazarian, and so on), then let's take SOFAD reduced by 8k (assuming 2k denials for 140, 80% approval rate), hence 22k SOFAD.

Now let's think about encouraged EB5, and EB1C (multinational manager) PP (premium processing which may begin next year), so let's take 4k further SOFAD reduction.

This brings worst case SOFAD to be 18k.

How far can 18k SOFAD take you. that can be seen in Spec's table in facts and data, with your own porting estimate plugged in.

Now, I do think that CO will not go into about what can happen this FY 2012 because of what is USCIS's strategy in terms of 140 backlog reduction, or EB5 encouragement, or EB1C PP etc. What he will take into account is how much SOFAD happened in past trend, and looking at last year, and even year before that, it has to be 30k figure plus a buffer of some number as you can't assume 100% 485 approval rate, although I suspect it must be pretty close to it.

To get to 30k figure, again if you see Spec's table, dates have to reach April 2008 whereabouts. And for these to be meaningfully available for any SO in Q4 FY 2012, they need to be in 6 months earlier, and hence, Q's take that before March 2012, dates should move till around April 2008.

So this does prove why CO put he anticipates significant date movement, mind that, for him I think even 3 months more might be significant, so we can't think significant means a year.

My gut feeling is 1st January 2008 for next VB, I would have said with much more certainty if CO had not put the words : not on a monthly basis, I frankly have been very tormented by those words, they don't make sense.

If he follows F2A FB strategy he did last year, he has to move this next VB. In this last year, what he did was he initially moved in quantity of 3 months around, and in the last two VB, he moved 2 months a piece. This year for EB2 I/C, he has moved 3 months, 3.5 months, so what's next.

So I have understood why he mentioned he anticipates significant date movement ahead, but I don't understand why he said not on a monthly basis. I am not ready to believe CO will try quarterly spillover in this day and age where there is so much 140 backlog for EB1 and EB2ROW. In fact if you ask someone like Ron Gotcher, he does not see where we think quarterly spillover is also allowed as per law.

Thanks for being so explicit Nishant.

[Eb2_Dec07]

If the demand capture happens sooner like next bulletin itself there will be minimal impact on that. However actual approvals will be far lower if the entire backlog were to be cleared. My projection has always been a little conservative than all others because of the I140 backlog itself. Last year was the Eb1 year in terms of SOFAD because the Kazarian memo slowed down I140 approvals but the applications never came down, however if they choose to clearing he I140backlog then most of the EB1 related SOFAD will disappear. This will move things towards the worst case scenario. Let’s keep a watch on this but too early to panic. Let’s wait to hear what Q, Veni & Spec have to say on this.

Thanks Teddy .

[sandeep11]

EB2_Dec2007-

My PD is Dec 4 2007.

As you said Q, Nishant , Teddy , Veni, Spector have all done a very good job. You are right in saying that their expertise has helped us take things in the right way. I truly wish good luck to everyone out there. Good Luck to you.

Sandeep, wats your PD ? I agree , ever since last VB came out , it has been a gut wrenching experience for me . Now that we are so close yet so far , it is really hanging in the balance. Everyday I literally scour through every page for any little info I could devour. I'm actually getting all my medicals scheduled ahead of next VB to just have everything in order to fly the paperwork to my attorney if it becomes current. Let's hope there is reprieve for many others . End of the day , all we can do is just hope for the best , but I must say these guys Q, Nishant , Teddy , Veni and all others are doing such a great job ,besides sharing their valuable insights they are really making our wait bearable.

[Eb2_Dec07]

EB2_Dec2007-

My PD is Dec 4 2007.

As you said Q, Nishant , Teddy , Veni, Spector have all done a very good job. You are right in saying that their expertise has helped us take things in the right way. I truly wish good luck to everyone out there. Good Luck to you.

Mine is Dec 4th too. Nice coincidence. Good luck to both of us . Let's see next VB