EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[veni001]

A kind of similar crazy thought occurred to me last night. If they indeed hack the demand data numbers to justify the date movement, then next demand data should be near to 0, if they can put some approximation formula in place about date movement vs expected numbers. Can't not a 3.5 month movement eat away the few thousand left in demand data as well as few PWMB and porters who got in that period.

A flip side of this reasoning is somehow if next demand data, big numbers return back showing, then we might be screwed.

It may not be zero, Spec pointed that USCIS will count all pending 485's in their demand data if the underlying i140 is approved.
If this is true them all PWMB until 15JUL2007 will show up in demand data for December, since all of them should have approval by now.

[vishnu]

veni - i think they count pending 485s only in inventory report and not demand data.

[nishant2200]

It may not be zero, Spec pointed that USCIS will count all pending 485's in their demand data if the underlying i140 is approved.
If this is true them all PWMB until 15JUL2007 will show up in demand data for December, since all of them should have approval by now.

But this also means 485 is pre-adjudicated? Also they must have set aside some numbers to justify the move, those numbers should be enough to eat away this new demand. That is why I said if they show big numbers in demand data next it means they are done with movement and will stop or retro. If they dont show big numbers means they are still moving along with the fake psuedo reserve numbers game.

[grnwtg]

I believe next demand data should shoot up as there will be new 485 applications and it increase a lot for January inventory which it should. I too believe that if demand reduces to near zero then definetly they are trying to build big inventory and dates will move( in not next, in January bulletin).
I dont think there is a way for anybody to see if they are really mocking up data.

But this also means 485 is pre-adjudicated? Also they must have set aside some numbers to justify the move, those numbers should be enough to eat away this new demand. That is why I said if they show big numbers in demand data next it means they are done with movement and will stop or retro. If they dont show big numbers means they are still moving along with the fake psuedo reserve numbers game.

[veni001]

But this also means 485 is pre-adjudicated? Also they must have set aside some numbers to justify the move, those numbers should be enough to eat away this new demand. That is why I said if they show big numbers in demand data next it means they are done with movement and will stop or retro. If they dont show big numbers means they are still moving along with the fake psuedo reserve numbers game.

Nishant,
As Q pointed several times date movement is discretionary once EB2IC move past July 2007, which it did in the last two VB.

I don't think any one going to question on EB2IC date movement, as long as DOS/USCIS keep visa usage within their quarterly limits.

[veni001]

veni - i think they count pending 485s only in inventory report and not demand data.

vishnu,

Based on inventory, demand data trend both are more or less same.

[grnwtg]

I take back on what i said, demand data pdf clearly states that it is the data of qualified candidates,

Here is the notes which will be written in these documents:
Notes:
- All totals are approximate values
- Categories not listed are "current"
Demand Data Used in the Determination
- Data as of October 4, 2011
The imposition of cut-off dates for some categories/countries has limited the amount of applicants who have
been able to file for adjustment of status with USCIS, and such applicants would not be included in the above
totals. In addition, new applicants are constantly becoming eligible for processing in categories for which cutoff
dates do not apply. Therefore, the above totals should not be interpreted to reflect the total universe of
applicant demand. These totals only represent the amount of demand which was taken into consideration
during the determination of the monthly cut-off dates

I believe next demand data should shoot up as there will be new 485 applications and it increase a lot for January inventory which it should. I too believe that if demand reduces to near zero then definetly they are trying to build big inventory and dates will move( in not next, in January bulletin).
I dont think there is a way for anybody to see if they are really mocking up data.

[soggadu]

Why moved till 1st Nov 2007, and not 15th Oct 2007 in Nov VB.

dude... because it has to cover my PD....i will never question even it moves > Nov 8 ;-)

[indiasunil]

Soggadu - Yours Nov. 08 ? I thought you already current.

[cbpds1]

It will be good if Q, Teddy or Spec pitch in with their thoughts about the comparitively unexpected amount of approvals in trackkit.

[soggadu]

Soggadu - Yours Nov. 08 ? I thought you already current.

Nishants is 08 Nov which i was refering to... how r ur 485 filing preparations sunil? u r current right?

[indiasunil]

Nishants is 08 Nov which i was refering to... how r ur 485 filing preparations sunil? u r current right?

See my Avathar !!... :-) .. aayega.. jarooor ayega

[qesehmk]

I think especially if the approvals are in 2007 then one should expect the trackitt ratio to be much lower than 16 for EB2IC given how much time theseguys have been on their 485s.

We can't look at 100 trackitt approvals and say that it represents 100*25 = 2500 approvals. 2 years back that was true. Not any longer.

Today I will be surprised if EB2IC trackitt ratio is more than 3-4 for people w PD < Jul 2007. In other words I would expect very very high percentage of EB2IC folks to havetheir cases entered into trackitt when their dates are into H1 of 2007.

Having said that I do believe that DOS is proactively and in an unusual manner approving EB2IC cases. I do believe that their usage seems to not indicate towards exceeding EB2IC maximum allocation in Q1. It needs to be understood that this is different than quarterly spillover (QS). QS would work only AFTER the quarter has ended. In this case they are on a visa allocation binge (good for all backlogged countries!) when the quarter has just started. So to be honest it could be anybody's guess what DOS is actually doing.

p.s. - I also want to say that I do think a sgnificanti number of 2007 EB2I folks actually may have gone back to India. Which MAY explain why the dates were moved so forward so fast. Unfortunately right now there isnothing we can do other than wait for 485 inventory to come out.

It will be good if Q, Teddy or Spec pitch in with their thoughts about the comparitively unexpected amount of approvals in trackkit.

[needid]

Update: I had to take only tetanus shot.Rest were there in my body.PPD was postive, X-ray clean, But still Doc prescribed isoniazid as a precaution and asked to comeback for lever check up after a month.

Docs will go to Attorney today.

[essenel]

Some pages back, there was a discussion about whom the I-485 checks should be addressed to (USCIS or DHS). What about the EVL? Whom should that be addressed to? I have asked my lawyer, but he's a little slow in responding. I will delete this post after I get a couple of answers. Thanks!

[suninphx]

p.s. - I also want to say that I do think a sgnificanti number of 2007 EB2I folks actually may have gone back to India. Which MAY explain why the dates were moved so forward so fast. Unfortunately right now there isnothing we can do other than wait for 485 inventory to come out.

Q- what is your your thought process behind this. I am curious to know if same logic is applicable to people with PD2008/09.

[cbpds1]

Thanks for clearing the air Mr Q !!

[QUOTE=qesehmk;11391]I think especially if the approvals are in 2007 then one should expect the trackitt ratio to be much lower than 16 for EB2IC given how much time theseguys have been on their 485s.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Gurus,

Are we able to infer a Quarterly Spillover possibility based on the latest movement ?

Can we with some reasonable certainty see some movement to little more movement in the next VB or is it still a conundrum ?

Next VB is really weighing heavy in our wait up to the VB release.

[qesehmk]

The reason being work place is becoming tougher for everybody. with 9% americans withoutjobs, H1B is a very easy target in general.

On top of that from candidate perspective there are so many indians who find losing out on India economically and socially not so enticing. So with US economy isnt attractive enough to go through GC uncertainty for so many indians especially when back home its all booming even today. Justtoday TCSannounced 40K workers will be hired in near future.

So many people with older PDs may have gone back.

Q- what is your your thought process behind this. I am curious to know if same logic is applicable to people with PD2008/09.

Gurus,

Are we able to infer a Quarterly Spillover possibility based on the latest movement ?

Can we with some reasonable certainty see some movement to little more movement in the next VB or is it still a conundrum ?

Next VB is really weighing heavy in our wait up to the VB release.

Quarterly spillover doesn't kick in so soon. One would;ve to wait till end of Q1. Whatever this is - is NOT QS.

[qblogfan]

I agree with you completely. Many of my Indian classmates have located jobs and moved to New Delhi and Mumbai areas. Some of my Chinese friends also gave up GC, although they were able to get 140 approved, especially for the guys who were single. The 2007 Fiasco allowed many people rush into their system, but some of these guys were disappointed and frustrated by the 1500+ days long wait, so many of them have gone back home.

I think we should see some further movement in the coming months.

The reason being work place is becoming tougher for everybody. with 9% americans withoutjobs, H1B is a very easy target in general.

On top of that from candidate perspective there are so many indians who find losing out on India economically and socially not so enticing. So with US economy isnt attractive enough to go through GC uncertainty for so many indians especially when back home its all booming even today. Justtoday TCSannounced 40K workers will be hired in near future.

So many people with older PDs may have gone back.







Quarterly spillover doesn't kick in so soon. One would;ve to wait till end of Q1. Whatever this is - is NOT QS.

[leo4ever]

The reason being work place is becoming tougher for everybody. with 9% americans withoutjobs, H1B is a very easy target in general.

On top of that from candidate perspective there are so many indians who find losing out on India economically and socially not so enticing. So with US economy isnt attractive enough to go through GC uncertainty for so many indians especially when back home its all booming even today. Justtoday TCSannounced 40K workers will be hired in near future.

So many people with older PDs may have gone back.

Quarterly spillover doesn't kick in so soon. One would;ve to wait till end of Q1. Whatever this is - is NOT QS.

Q,

If its true it gives me a lot of hope. Most of those with PD's before Jul 07 with EAD would not have gone to India as they have EAD to get on. I think those who missed the boat and also with PD's end of 2007 or early of 2008 might have.

I am basing my guess based on couple of my friends who had their PD in 2007 Dec / Feb 2008, but they are just 2 out of 100's i know....

[vizcard]

leo - you know 100s :P ?? you mean folks on forums right?

Seriously though I don't know anyone who left because they were "fed up" of the process or even who lost jobs. If that is indeed true its awesome for folks in mid-2008 (like me) and later.

[qesehmk]

Leo

I don't really have hard data. But looking at economy and situation around, I find it very hard to think that 100% of whoever applied in 2007 was able to retain their jobs or otherwise get another jobs in case lost the first one.

And then there are people ( I know quite a few first hand) who dont value all this GC struggle that much. Typically these people have their home bases in Mumbai Delhi Blore etc where there are tons of opportunities.

But again ... this is so subjective discussion ... one can argue eitherway. I wish there is a way to predict how many abandoned their GC process.

Q,

If its true it gives me a lot of hope. Most of those with PD's before Jul 07 with EAD would not have gone to India as they have EAD to get on. I think those who missed the boat and also with PD's end of 2007 or early of 2008 might have.

I am basing my guess based on couple of my friends who had their PD in 2007 Dec / Feb 2008, but they are just 2 out of 100's i know....

[asankaran]

Hi Q,

I really like the approach you are taking for the prediction discussion. It is extremely difficult to maintain H1 status and also file in EB2 after July 2007 under the current market conditions.

I came here in 2007 and personally seen the worst in this country, relocating from one location to another with family. I don't think anyone from India after 2007 would really be interested to go through that pain and wonder even if it is really worth it, unless they have been in real bad financial situation.

I feel this country is no longer attractive for legal immigrants!

Leo

I don't really have hard data. But looking at economy and situation around, I find it very hard to think that 100% of whoever applied in 2007 was able to retain their jobs or otherwise get another jobs in case lost the first one.

And then there are people ( I know quite a few first hand) who dont value all this GC struggle that much. Typically these people have their home bases in Mumbai Delhi Blore etc where there are tons of opportunities.

But again ... this is so subjective discussion ... one can argue eitherway. I wish there is a way to predict how many abandoned their GC process.

[qesehmk]

Thanks asankaran. People are trying to figure out the method to CO's madness in approving what seems is large quantities of EB2IC backlog so early in the year. And given that law doesn't allow him to spillover unless teh quarter is over, the only other possible explanation that seems plausible to me is that there is a good amount of GCs that are abandoned. I could be wrong. But honestly I do not know where CO will get all these visas without violating the law.

As per US being attractive .... i think US is like shaadi kaa laddu. Jo khaye woh pachataye .... jo na khaye woh bhee pachataye! So one might as well eat it and then repent

Hi Q,

I really like the approach you are taking for the prediction discussion. It is extremely difficult to maintain H1 status and also file in EB2 after July 2007 under the current market conditions.

I came here in 2007 and personally seen the worst in this country, relocating from one location to another with family. I don't think anyone from India after 2007 would really be interested to go through that pain and wonder even if it is really worth it, unless they have been in real bad financial situation.

I feel this country is no longer attractive for legal immigrants!