EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[vedu]

Another thing that lead me to believe that the dates won't move in December is their actions last year, during May - September, 2011. They moved the dates well in advance, and then we started expecting dates to move with the same pace in the later months. But it didn't happen. I am thinking that going forward that may be the trend quarter by quarter.

I think they will continue to move forward because it does not make much difference to stop for 1 month to monitor the situation.

I believe they have better data than us and they estimated a pretty close number based on the data they have. I also believe they already made their plan half year ago when Mr.Co annouced the low demand of EB1 in April.

All he is doing is an excution of the plan they made six months ago.

[nishant2200]

Vedu, as I said earlier, wud only happen if doing quarterly SO and CO feels need to justify movement based on quarterly numbers. Each and every quarter cat and mouse game. It's not impossible, but only reason we are thinking that he put the words may not move on a monthly basis.

It does not make any sense for him to go this route, but we are not mind readers. Calculations and data show he has to get at least end of 2007.

We can only wait and watch now. 23 days to go.

Another thing that lead me to believe that the dates won't move in December is their actions last year, during May - September, 2011. They moved the dates well in advance, and then we started expecting dates to move with the same pace in the later months. But it didn't happen. I am thinking that going forward that may be the trend quarter by quarter.

[suninphx]

Here is my take on it based on following assumptions:

1. Everyone up to 12/31/07 gets GC in FY 2012

2. 19,400 SOFAD (includes porting) + 5,600 EB2 IC quota = 25,000 GC / year
-- 2a Approx. 2,000 applications / month or 6,500 / quarter or 12,500 / half year to come up with monthly breakdown

3. Every PERM application requires 1.15 visa numbers at I485 stage using the calculations below:
-- 3a EB2 IC is 70% of total IC PERM (see my other posts for the reason)
-- 3b ~80% I140 conversion rate (CM's analysis http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...-green_20.html based on http://www.immigrationwatch.com/usci...tatistics.html)
-- 3c 2.05 visa numbers used by every I485 applicant
-- 3d 1 Perm Application = 0.7*0.8*2.05 = 1.15 I-485 visa numbers

4. All PERM applications as of 3/31/2011 have been completed (PERM data as of 6/30/11). Reasonable assumption since DoL have improved their process and almost all PERM applications are decided within 60 days

5. I think it is reasonable to subtract 6 months (USCIS processing time) from Expected Month column to get an approximation of when you will be current. You can subtract additional time if you think USCIS will be slower.

Petition Date|IC Perm Cases|Visa# Reqd|Expected Visa Available|Expected Month
2007-11-----|2434-----------|2794-------|FY-2012-------------|2012-08
2007-12-----|2247-----------|2580-------|FY-2012-------------|2012-09
2008-01-----|2900-----------|3329-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-10
2008-02-----|2733-----------|3137-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-12
2008-03-----|2244-----------|2576-------|FY-2013-------------|2013-02
2008-04-----|2716-----------|3118-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-03
2008-05-----|2513-----------|2885-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-05
2008-06-----|2142-----------|2459-------|FY-2013-------------|2012-06
2008-07-----|2046-----------|2349-------|FY-2013-------------|2013-07
2008-08-----|2029-----------|2329-------|FY-2013-------------|2013-08
2008-09-----|1891-----------|2171-------|FY-2013-------------|2013-09
2008-10-----|2389-----------|2743-------|FY-2014-------------|2013-10
2008-11-----|1985-----------|2279-------|FY-2014-------------|2013-11
2008-12-----|2069-----------|2375-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-01
2009-01-----|2065-----------|2371-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-02
2009-02-----|1766-----------|2027-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-03
2009-03-----|1794-----------|2060-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-04
2009-04-----|1839-----------|2111-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-05
2009-05-----|1451-----------|1666-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-06
2009-06-----|1462-----------|1678-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-07
2009-07-----|1287-----------|1477-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-08
2009-08-----|1247-----------|1432-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-08
2009-09-----|1489-----------|1709-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-09
2009-10-----|1502-----------|1724-------|FY-2014-------------|2014-09
2009-11-----|1359-----------|1560-------|FY-2015-------------|2014-10
2009-12-----|1479-----------|1698-------|FY-2015-------------|2014-10
2010-01-----|1495-----------|1716-------|FY-2015-------------|2014-11
2010-02-----|1318-----------|1513-------|FY-2015-------------|2014-12
2010-03-----|1734-----------|1991-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-01
2010-04-----|1610-----------|1848-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-02
2010-05-----|1672-----------|1919-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-03
2010-06-----|2035-----------|2336-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-04
2010-07-----|1761-----------|2022-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-06
2010-08-----|2273-----------|2609-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-07
2010-09-----|2264-----------|2599-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-08
2010-10-----|2445-----------|2807-------|FY-2015-------------|2015-09
2010-11-----|2507-----------|2878-------|FY-2016-------------|2015-10
2010-12-----|3207-----------|3682-------|FY-2016-------------|2015-11
2011-01-----|2782-----------|3194-------|FY-2016-------------|2016-01
2011-02-----|2950-----------|3387-------|FY-2016-------------|2016-03
2011-03-----|2823-----------|3241-------|FY-2016-------------|2016-04
2011-04-----|1495-----------|1716-------|FY-2016-------------|2016-06
2011-05-----|0005-----------|0006-------|FY-2016-------------|Additional-Data-needed
2011-06-----|0001-----------|0001-------|FY-2016-------------|Additional-Data-needed

This is a great effort.

(Why) this does not consider any denials at PERM stage?

[Sandeep2011]

Can i file my I-485 on my own?

Gurus, need some guidance here.

My employer is in the midst of major restructuring and immigration is not something that is on the top of the list during this reorg. As a result, although i have become current during Nov visa bulletin, there is no action taken by my company despite my repeated follow-ups to start 485 process. I have all the documents needed to file I-485 except for employment letter. If i get the employment letter from HR, can i go ahead and file I-485 on my own or do i have to go through a company appointed attorney? Also, by when do i need to file my application - do i have time till Nov 30th or do i need to file before December visa bulletin comes out?

Thanks.

[veni001]

Can i file my I-485 on my own?

Gurus, need some guidance here.

My employer is in the midst of major restructuring and immigration is not something that is on the top of the list during this reorg. As a result, although i have become current during Nov visa bulletin, there is no action taken by my company despite my repeated follow-ups to start 485 process. I have all the documents needed to file I-485 except for employment letter. If i get the employment letter from HR, can i go ahead and file I-485 on my own or do i have to go through a company appointed attorney? Also, by when do i need to file my application - do i have time till Nov 30th or do i need to file before December visa bulletin comes out?

Thanks.

Sandeep,
i485 is your application,even company attorney need your permission to file your 485.

All you need from the employer is Constitution of Full-time Employment Offer Letter.

If you are not planning to use company attorney, i would recommend use your own.

It's matter of few thousand dollars but will give you peace of mind.

[immi2910]

This is a great effort.

(Why) this does not consider any denials at PERM stage?

These are certified PERM and thus excludes any denials

[Sandeep2011]

Thank you Veni. You made my day.

Also, by when 485 applications should be received by USCIS? Thanks again.

Sandeep,
i485 is your application,even company attorney need your permission to file your 485.

All you need from the employer is Constitution of Full-time Employment Offer Letter.

If you are not planning to use company attorney, i would recommend use your own.

It's matter of few thousand dollars but will give you peace of mind.

[rahil1]

I received my card in mail on 10/15/ 2011... I am relieved..
thanks to all in this forum Q, Teddy, Veni, Nishant and soggadu.. I wish best of luck to all....

[dec2007]

I received my card in mail on 10/15/ 2011... I am relieved..
thanks to all in this forum Q, Teddy, Veni, Nishant and soggadu.. I wish best of luck to all....

Congrats! what is your PD?

[leo4ever]

This is a great effort.

(Why) this does not consider any denials at PERM stage?

Great effort immi2910, i see a pattern here PD+5 yrs (our Gurus old saying)

[tackle]

Congrats! what is your PD?

It is 05/02/2007 as seen here.

Congrats, Rahil!

[Kanmani]

immi2910 thank you for the hardwork . I like it .

Rahil enjoy your green life.

[nishant2200]

Thank you Veni. You made my day.

Also, by when 485 applications should be received by USCIS? Thanks again.

Nov 1st to Nov 31st. If Dec VB does not retrogress, in Dec also and so on. Basically your PD should be current when USCIS receives.

Btw, I dont know what happens if they get on weekend or holiday.

[evoori]

My situation is similar as of yours... I am filing I-485 on my own.. Employment verification letter and copy of approved I-140 is all you need from employer..

Can i file my I-485 on my own?

Gurus, need some guidance here.

My employer is in the midst of major restructuring and immigration is not something that is on the top of the list during this reorg. As a result, although i have become current during Nov visa bulletin, there is no action taken by my company despite my repeated follow-ups to start 485 process. I have all the documents needed to file I-485 except for employment letter. If i get the employment letter from HR, can i go ahead and file I-485 on my own or do i have to go through a company appointed attorney? Also, by when do i need to file my application - do i have time till Nov 30th or do i need to file before December visa bulletin comes out?

Thanks.

You can file application till end of the month in which your PD is current.. nishant is correct except NOV has 30 days..

Nov 1st to Nov 31st. If Dec VB does not retrogress, in Dec also and so on. Basically your PD should be current when USCIS receives.

Btw, I dont know what happens if they get on weekend or holiday.

[nishant2200]

Evoori, thank you

Btw, ppl doing their own 485 may want to open a new thread and discuss things like format of employment letter and how to file etc. I think even sogaddu is filing on own.

My situation is similar as of yours... I am filing I-485 on my own.. Employment verification letter and copy of approved I-140 is all you need from employer..



You can file application till end of the month in which your PD is current.. nishant is correct except NOV has 30 days..

[veni001]

Nov 1st to Nov 31st. If Dec VB does not retrogress, in Dec also and so on. Basically your PD should be current when USCIS receives.

Btw, I dont know what happens if they get on weekend or holiday.

Thank you Veni. You made my day.

Also, by when 485 applications should be received by USCIS? Thanks again.

Sandeep,
Nishant is correct your application should receive at USCIS on or between 11/1/11 - 11/30/11, if the dates remain current in December then you will have another month and so on...

[soggadu]

I received my card in mail on 10/15/ 2011... I am relieved..
thanks to all in this forum Q, Teddy, Veni, Nishant and soggadu.. I wish best of luck to all....

Awesomeeeee oooo raamaaaa.... enjoy the card rahil...please dont question us now whether you have to scan the card or not :-)

[soggadu]

Evoori, thank you

Btw, ppl doing their own 485 may want to open a new thread and discuss things like format of employment letter and how to file etc. I think even sogaddu is filing on own.

Nishant.... i am going in with a lawyer... cant take the pressure of doing it myself, but i know a lot people do it...

Hey also... Any one know the dollar amount to make the checks for? one for me and one for spouse...

[mvinayam]

Sandeep,
Nishant is correct your application should receive at USCIS on or between 11/1/11 - 11/30/11, if the dates remain current in December then you will have another month and so on...

Gurus,

If there is retrogress which I hope shouldn't happen. Till how far the dates can move back.

Thanks,
mv

[soggadu]

Gurus,

If there is retrogress which I hope shouldn't happen. Till how far the dates can move back.

Thanks,
mv

everybody is looking forward for a jump forward... i dont think it will retrogress from Nov 1 anytime for ever....is ur real name vinayam? in telugu it means "respect"....

[nishant2200]

I believe they can hold the line till 15th July 2007 to 15th August 2007.

Gurus,

If there is retrogress which I hope shouldn't happen. Till how far the dates can move back.

Thanks,
mv

[nishant2200]

Awesomeeeee oooo raamaaaa.... enjoy the card rahil...please dont question us now whether you have to scan the card or not :-)

yes Rahil, many congrats. I still remember the day you expressed happiness on being current, not many days back,and now you are already got it!

It's raining GCs it seems, I am still not satisfied with explanation given by anyone as to the magic being done by CO.

[nishant2200]

good decision. I always think good to go with lawyer.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...0045f3d6a1RCRD

$1070 each.

Ouch.

Nishant.... i am going in with a lawyer... cant take the pressure of doing it myself, but i know a lot people do it...

Hey also... Any one know the dollar amount to make the checks for? one for me and one for spouse...

[nishant2200]

everybody is looking forward for a jump forward... i dont think it will retrogress from Nov 1 anytime for ever....is ur real name vinayam? in telugu it means "respect"....

In a way that's true, holding at 15th August 2007 is almost equal to holding at Nov 1st 2007 for at least few months until the 485s filed from august to nov start getting ripe for approvals.

[username]

Nishant.... i am going in with a lawyer... cant take the pressure of doing it myself, but i know a lot people do it...

Hey also... Any one know the dollar amount to make the checks for? one for me and one for spouse...

My attorney said (for me and my wife $1070 x 2) $2,140 -payable to :USCIS
Plus attorney fees payable to him.