EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[pch053]

Thanks veni and qesehmk for the answers; it surely helped clarify my doubts!

[hoping4thebest]

Hi folks (q, veni, spec etc.),
I have been following all your analysis for quite a while and you guys are doing full justice to the goal of this site..to bring some visibility to the EB-GC visa bulletin movements. Kudos to all of you for that.
However, since you guys are deep into the analysis...I am sometimes confused as to what are the main reasons for the slow/no movement for EB2-I. I caught the Eb3-Eb2 porting calculations earlier on this thread but then the final comments seemed to be that this may not be that significant. I gathered some info about the reduction in FA/FD numbers but not sure how significant this is. same about EB1C apps.
In summary - it would great help if someone could list of the few 4-5 factors, the combination of which is leading to the EB2-I situation we find ourselves in today.

[qesehmk]

I think fundamentally what drives EB2IC ( or 3 for that matter ) backlog is the fact that there are only 2800 visas available under per country quota whereas the demand for EB2I is probably around 18-25K. During recessions such as now the demand is less.

So EB2I is left at the mercy of other categories to utilize less and provide SOFAD. The other categories themselves have volatile demand which gets complicated by USCIS' processing delays and surges. That's why predicting EB2IC movement becomes tricky.

Hope it answers your question.

Hi folks (q, veni, spec etc.),
I have been following all your analysis for quite a while and you guys are doing full justice to the goal of this site..to bring some visibility to the EB-GC visa bulletin movements. Kudos to all of you for that.
However, since you guys are deep into the analysis...I am sometimes confused as to what are the main reasons for the slow/no movement for EB2-I. I caught the Eb3-Eb2 porting calculations earlier on this thread but then the final comments seemed to be that this may not be that significant. I gathered some info about the reduction in FA/FD numbers but not sure how significant this is. same about EB1C apps.
In summary - it would great help if someone could list of the few 4-5 factors, the combination of which is leading to the EB2-I situation we find ourselves in today.

[veni001]

Hi folks (q, veni, spec etc.),
I have been following all your analysis for quite a while and you guys are doing full justice to the goal of this site..to bring some visibility to the EB-GC visa bulletin movements. Kudos to all of you for that.
However, since you guys are deep into the analysis...I am sometimes confused as to what are the main reasons for the slow/no movement for EB2-I. I caught the Eb3-Eb2 porting calculations earlier on this thread but then the final comments seemed to be that this may not be that significant. I gathered some info about the reduction in FA/FD numbers but not sure how significant this is. same about EB1C apps.
In summary - it would great help if someone could list of the few 4-5 factors, the combination of which is leading to the EB2-I situation we find ourselves in today.

Hoping4thebest,
Let me throw few pointers here... now we know that USCIS/DOS won't apply SOFAD until Q4 so with regular 7% per country limit, VISA availability per month per category is about 233 or 700 per quarter.
October 2010 EBi485 inventory data show about 1700 EB2I pending applications before May 2006.

We know that porting is common phenomena( more or less), there are about 45K EB3I before May 2006. Let's apply what ever be the factor you like 4%, 6% or 10% once we apply this we know that EB2I demand will be more than the supply and no chance for any forward movement unless SOFAD applied.

On the contrary EB2C got less than 700 with PD before June 2006 as of 10/01/2010 and only 2,750 EB3C with PD before June 2006.

Thre is lot of talk on reduced EB1C demand this year, but i would wait couple more months and see if DOS is going to throw any prediction for the rest of the year.

[leo07]

This Prez can't even solve the budget issue, forget Libya,Japan,Energy & Immigration.
There is not a statement ore rebuttal or anything about the Utah policy. ( which I think is good)

More seriously, did anyone find the latest inventory data? I think it's due this month, right?

[Spectator]

More seriously, did anyone find the latest inventory data? I think it's due this month, right?

Leo,

I think it will be a further month.

The Inventories now seem to be aligned to USCIS Quarters and the last one was as of 5th January 2011. The PDF was created on 01/11/2001.

I think we can probably expect the next Inventory in early April, after Q2 has finished at the end of March.

[leo07]

yup, I think they are trying to align with quarters now.
Looking at the last march, it appeared that it's due now:
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

who knows CIS

[gcseeker]

Veni

I will have to differ with you on this one.

Q

I too strongly beleive this bill will get passed. It is a fairly harmless bill on the surface and it does not harm the politcal capital of either party and actually plays into the pet theme of the republican party . It is high time the US immigration sytem should be reformed but outright or major reforms will not take place this year or the next . Next year is an election year and with unemployment rate close to 20% people just do not want to hear any politician campaign on letting in more people legal or not ( It is a different story that tech has an unemployment rate of only 5% compared to unemployment rate for manufacturing jobs ...not relevant to this discussion ) .

Anybody who has studied modern american history will know America had encouraged open immigration for a long time during the 1930's,1940's and 1950's untill the anti immigration lobby managed to shut it down permanently for a few decades. The technological boom of the 70's and demand for cheap technical labour opened the flood gates again. H1B's will always be perceived as the people taking away their jobs due to these images being firmly planted in their subconscious and the power's to be also manage to divert the public's attention .

Long story short.

Bill has a good chance of passing. I would not expect any other bill ( MS-Green card, Scrapping Visa lottery,Not counting family members etc etc ) to pass anytime soon in the next couple of years. If this bill passes it would reduce the spillover from EB5.

Sorry ... have been out of pocket for quite a while. Hence the delay ...

This bill seems fairly innocuous and may actually get passed. But this does nothing for 99% of those in queue. A good one though as people like Sanjay Mavinkurve wouldn't have to leave.

[angryclubs]

P.S : I do not want to offend anyone but I am glad that Bangladesh lost this morning. Some relieve for Indian fans. Though it was unlikely that we would not have qualified, but I hate seeing us struggling everytime to qualify for next round. Let's see who will we play. I would prefer NZ but how things are going with AUS vs PAK, we might end up playing Australia. If we lose to WI than SL. Fingers crossed. Hopefully we can atleast win WC for Sachin.

I would as much like to see Sachin get injured and India win the world cup without him. Granted he is exceptional, but this BS about winning the WC for one individual is too much to digest. India is much bigger than one 5ft guy.

[shaumack]

I would as much like to see Sachin get injured and India win the world cup without him. Granted he is exceptional, but this BS about winning the WC for one individual is too much to digest. India is much bigger than one 5ft guy.

I would argue otherwise but this is not the right forum for this. But if you and most of the other fellow countrymen really doesn't care about his contribution and take pride in his achievements, and really hope he gets injured and we win WC w/o him, then I really feel sorry for Sachin that he was born in this nation and has to play for this country. Peace out!!!

[gcwait2007]

I have updated the thread with March and April 2011 figures.

Given below is the present position:

Comparison of cumulative demand data for EB2 India, since Oct 2010:

Month Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11

CY-2006 13125 13150 13125 13150 13175 13200 13200
CY-2007 22850 22850 22825 22900 22975 22950 22950
CY-2010 22925 23000 22925 23000 23025 23050 23050

The above data can be interpreted that EB3I to EB2I porting happens and that demand matches or almost over takes the supply/ availability of visas. From the above, I conclude that EB3I to EB2I porting is about 260 to 270 per month.


The published Visa Bulletin Priority Dates since are given below:

Month EB2-CH EB2-IN
04/01/2011 07/22/2006 05/08/2006
03/01/2011 07/08/2006 05/08/2006
02/01/2011 07/01/2006 05/08/2006
01/01/2011 06/22/2006 05/08/2006
12/01/2010 06/08/2006 05/08/2006
11/01/2010 06/01/2006 05/08/2006
10/01/2010 05/22/2006 05/08/2006

With the PD announcements in every month visa bulletin and I-485 Inventory data, one would be able to calculate Visa Demand data position(pending applications), month wise.

The demand data position for April 2011, as calculated by me, is given below:

Month India China Cum Total
May-06 1212 0 1212
Jun-06 1696 0 2908
Jul-06 1505 565 4978
Aug-06 1677 693 7348
Sep-06 1745 773 9866
Oct-06 1747 732 12345
Nov-06 1737 667 14749
Dec-06 1881 770 17400

Jan-07 1540 654 19594
Feb-07 1444 615 21653


Every month USCIS allocates 233* visas each to EB2 India and EB2 China, as part of normal quota. So there will be 1000 visas issued each to India and China in next 3 months from April 2011 to June 2011.

*Using 140,00 total EB visas -

EB2 receives 28.6% of the 140,000 so the 7% limit for EB2-I is (140,000 * 0.286) * 0.07 = 2,803 visas.

Monthly quota = 2803/12 = 233

While EB2 China would move to 15th Aug 2006 by June 2011 VB, EB2 India would continue to stagnate at 8-May-2006 due to porting of EB3 to EB2.

My guesstimate for July 2011 demand data may look like smth as given below:

Month India China Cum Total
May-06 1212 0 1212
Jun-06 1696 0 2908
Jul-06 1505 0 4413
Aug-06 1677 558 6648
Sep-06 1745 773 9166
Oct-06 1747 732 11645
Nov-06 1737 667 14049
Dec-06 1881 770 16700

Jan-07 1540 654 18894
Feb-07 1444 615 20953

With my limited experience of last few years in dealing with USCIS and DOS, I am aware that the spillover calculations start happening in Q4, commencing from July. Further, there are resources constraint in USCIS centers. First 2 months of the Q4 (July and Aug), spillover allocation happen in full swing. Last month of the Quarter, remaining spillover is allocated.

The spillover whenever happens, it goes to the worst affected country, which is India.

If there is no spillover happening in July 2011, EB2 India and China would continue to get 233 visas every month for 3 months from July 2011 to Sep 2011. In the normal course, EB2 China would reach 15-Sep-2006.

After allocating all regular visas, the visa demand position may look smth like given below, for allocating Spillover visas:

Month India China Cum Total
May-06 1212 0 1212
Jun-06 1696 0 2908
Jul-06 1505 0 4413
Aug-06 1677 0 6090
Sep-06 1745 631 8466
Oct-06 1747 732 10945
Nov-06 1737 667 13349
Dec-06 1881 770 16000

Jan-07 1540 654 18194
Feb-07 1444 615 20253

I made assumption from the past trend about the availability of spillover visas. While EB5 spillover about 8K to 9K is certain, EB1 is not certain and EB2ROW to EB2 Ind/China is estimated to be 10K to 12K.

Then there are also People Who Missed the Boat, which I understand USCIS does not take into account for deciding the Cut Off date.

There are no clear or close figures available to the public for calculating availability of spillover visas for the current year in the absence of issue of visas country wise against demand. The data is available and it is closely guarded within DOS and USCIS departments.

If spillover is----------- Likely Cut-off date (for EB2 India & China)
8K----------------------30-Sep-06
10K--------------------- 22-Oct-06
12K--------------------- 15-Nov-06
14K--------------------- 8-Dec-06
16K--------------------- 31-Dec-06
18K--------------------- 31-Jan-07
20K--------------------- 28-Feb-07
22K--------------------- 31-Mar-07
24K--------------------- 30-Apr-07

If the spillover visas are about 16K, that would cover till Dec 2006. If it is 20K visas, it would cover till Feb 2007. If it is 24K visas, cut off would reach April 2007.


Ron has commented that EB3I to EB2I porting and PWMB data should not be taken into account, since USCIS does not count the same for calculating Cut-off dates.

[nayekal]

Thanks GCwait2007 for a good write up.

It is so easy for a beginner like me to understand the current situation and I am sure every one agrees on that since it doesn't contradict the present situation and the assumptions or dependencies used are way too straight forward.

I hope, you will update it as and when necessary just like the way qesehmk and others are doing.

[TeddyKoochu]

Thanks gcwait2007 for the calculations, looks great. I believe as you say Feb - Apr 2007 is a good possibility.

[TexDBoy]

Hi guys,

With my PD in Jan 07, I just got one more finger printing notice. This one is 3rd one for me. I got reply from trackitt forum that it is just a normal procedure and is sent if the system cannot update the finger prints.
I just wanted to share this as I am not sure if this is telling something about spill overs ... optimistic ... huh

[qesehmk]

GCW

Thanks. Nice work. If you want please provide me this with a gist and I can update the header with your paragraph (w credits to you!).

Your date calculation however seems quite off. In my opinion, to reach Mar 07 (or clear it) the visas available should be 26K or more. I think its the DoS data that you are looking at which is making the forecast a bit optimistic. Good one though! Didn't mean to criticize.

I have updated the thread with March and April 2011 figures.

Hi guys,

With my PD in Jan 07, I just got one more finger printing notice. This one is 3rd one for me. I got reply from trackitt forum that it is just a normal procedure and is sent if the system cannot update the finger prints.
I just wanted to share this as I am not sure if this is telling something about spill overs ... optimistic ... huh

Keep the fingers crossed (except during finger printing)!! Good luck.

[Gclongwait]

Thanks gcwait2007 for the calculations, looks great. I believe as you say Feb - Apr 2007 is a good possibility.

I hope you guys are right. I think reaching mid march would be really good movement (not that I am anywhere near that). Less than that would be quite disappointing. EB1 holds the key. Lets see, less than 3 mnths remaining for the July bulletin.

[Spectator]

If spillover is----------- Likely Cut-off date (for EB2 India & China)
8K----------------------30-Sep-06
10K--------------------- 22-Oct-06
12K--------------------- 15-Nov-06
14K--------------------- 8-Dec-06
16K--------------------- 31-Dec-06
18K--------------------- 31-Jan-07
20K--------------------- 28-Feb-07
22K--------------------- 31-Mar-07
24K--------------------- 30-Apr-07

If the spillover visas are about 16K, that would cover till Dec 2006. If it is 20K visas, it would cover till Feb 2007. If it is 24K visas, cut off would reach April 2007.

An interesting calculation and good work. It is true that the Demand Data figures give more optimistic movements than the USCIS Inventory.

As I read it, Spillover is just that and the normal allocation must be added to obtain SOFAD, so 16k to reach the end of December 2006 equals 21.6k SOFAD.

I agree with Q that the figures might be a little optimistic.

a) Although it doesn't alter the final figure, the INA allows the VO to allocate up to 27% of Visas in each of the first 3 quarters. This is 757 per quarter, or around 250 per month.

b) A greater concern to me is the assumption that VO will use that number as a maximum they can allocate.

All the evidence says that the VO consistently ignore this number. They can do this because they also take into account historical patterns and any other information they have. If the VO is reasonably certain that EB2-IC will receive some Spillover, they will take that into account.

Say for example they are sure that at least 5k spare visas will be available, then the 27% per quarter could be based on 5,000 + 2,803, giving a monthly allotment of c. 700 Visas per month.

If Demand is less than that, then there is no need to retrogress Cut Off Dates, even if Demand is greater than 250 Visas per month.

In fact, if Trackitt ratios for EB2-I are the same in FY2011 as they were in FY2010, then EB2-I has already consumed around 2.3k Visas, rather than around the 1.4k you are assuming.

At the end of the year, if EB2-I had consumed say 5k, then it would need 5k - 2.8k + 16k = 18.2k Spillover (or 23.8k SOFAD) to reach the end of December 2006.

That, to me, is the conundrum - how many Visas have been and are going to be allocated to EB2-I that are "invisible" to the Demand Data.

[kd2008]

Guys check out these numbers:

ebnumberspicture.jpg

About 8000 cases from district offices, I think.

[gcwait2007]

Hi guys,

With my PD in Jan 07, I just got one more finger printing notice. This one is 3rd one for me. I got reply from trackitt forum that it is just a normal procedure and is sent if the system cannot update the finger prints.
I just wanted to share this as I am not sure if this is telling something about spill overs ... optimistic ... huh

Keep the fingers crossed (except during finger printing)!! Good luck.

I know a case EB2 India with PD of Jan 2007 has been approved recently out of turn. So as Q mentioned 'keep the fingers crossed'.

[Spectator]

Guys check out these numbers:

About 8000 cases from district offices, I think.

kd,

Unfortunately, the picture is too small for me too read.

The Jan USCIS dashboard figures came out on Monday.

The "Pre adjudicated, awaiting a visa number" figure for TSC I-485 jumped from 65,980 in December 2010 to 76,156 in January 2011. That is an increase of 10,176.

If you consider it normally decreases by about 700, then the LO cases appear to be nearer 11k.

Somebody on Trackitt went through all the LO data in the Dashboard. In November 2010 there were 20,756 pre-adjudicated cases at LO. That had dropped to 18,259 in December 2010, but they remarked that some might already have been transferred by that time as a result of the memo. In January 2011, the figure has dropped to 2,131 as would be expected due to their transfer to TSC.

It isn't clear whether USCIS have caught up with entering the transfers from LO into the Inventory system. I guess future dashboard figures and Inventories will tell the tale.

[kd2008]

Spectator,

Thanks for your info. Sorry about the picture. You can visit http://immigration-law.com/Canada.html and scroll down for figures. Just search 03/21/2011: January 2011 Updated on the page.

[qesehmk]

Spec / KD

Most of this transfer should really be FB or EB3. When it comes to EB the LO cases woudl be most likely prior to 2007.

EB2IC dates are already into mid 2006. And its hard to believe that LOs would have large amount of EB2IC cases.

So in nutshell this move will not be impactful to EB2IC dates movement.

kd,

Unfortunately, the picture is too small for me too read.

The Jan USCIS dashboard figures came out on Monday.

The "Pre adjudicated, awaiting a visa number" figure for TSC I-485 jumped from 65,980 in December 2010 to 76,156 in January 2011. That is an increase of 10,176.

If you consider it normally decreases by about 700, then the LO cases appear to be nearer 11k.

Somebody on Trackitt went through all the LO data in the Dashboard. In November 2010 there were 20,756 pre-adjudicated cases at LO. That had dropped to 18,259 in December 2010, but they remarked that some might already have been transferred by that time as a result of the memo. In January 2011, the figure has dropped to 2,131 as would be expected due to their transfer to TSC.

It isn't clear whether USCIS have caught up with entering the transfers from LO into the Inventory system. I guess future dashboard figures and Inventories will tell the tale.

[viypr07]

I know a case EB2 India with PD of Jan 2007 has been approved recently out of turn. So as Q mentioned 'keep the fingers crossed'.

I have also been sent a biometrics notice(third time)eb2 india PD jan 07. My lawyer says they have a expiry of 15 months so they send notice after that time period.

[Spectator]

Spec / KD

Most of this transfer should really be FB or EB3. When it comes to EB the LO cases woudl be most likely prior to 2007.

EB2IC dates are already into mid 2006. And its hard to believe that LOs would have large amount of EB2IC cases.

So in nutshell this move will not be impactful to EB2IC dates movement.

Q

Totally agree with your point about EB2. Remarkably little appeared to be EB2 in the Jan Inventory. The largest numbers transferred to TSC belonged to EB3-ROW and were pre 2006.

I think the vast majority are EB rather than FB, on the basis that the figures (for June 2010, if memory serves me correctly) agree very well with the 23k EB cases at LO mentioned by the Ombudsman in the 2010 Report. Of course, that may be mere coincidence.

[qesehmk]

Spec

They should employ you at USCIS!! You really bring real new relevant information to the table. Thanks.

Q

Totally agree with your point about EB2. Remarkably little appeared to be EB2 in the Jan Inventory. The largest numbers transferred to TSC belonged to EB3-ROW and were pre 2006.

I think the vast majority are EB rather than FB, on the basis that the figures (for June 2010, if memory serves me correctly) agree very well with the 23k EB cases at LO mentioned by the Ombudsman in the 2010 Report. Of course, that may be mere coincidence.