EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[vizcard]

Gurus - thoughts on when 8/20/2008 will be current ?

[nishant2200]

imdeng, for sure I know people with latter PDs approved, while older ones still twiddling thumbs. I think within the date range current, it's the luck of the draw frankly. Others have disagreed with this on the past.

This has been a frequent argument that USCIS is unable to do FIFO - and while this might have been true before, I am not sure whether this hold true now. Do we have continuing evidence of it? I would imagine that in today's automated environment, it should not be difficult to enforce a non-random priority procedure.

It would be fair for USCIS to consider the batch of 485s that come after a PD extension on the basis of the receipt date of 485. I hope they do that.

[yesman]

Gurus - thoughts on when 8/20/2008 will be current ?

I'm no guru. But I found this awesome model put together by Spec (possibly with help from others?) here
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011

According to this work, it will be sometime in in FY 2013 at best or in FY 2014

[vizcard]

I'm no guru. But I found this awesome model put together by Spec (possibly with help from others?) here
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011

According to this work, it will be sometime in in FY 2013 at best or in FY 2014

Pretty sure it won't be 2014. I think it will be Q1 or Q2 2013 but wanted a more "informed guess" based on the new developments.

[nishant2200]

yesman, I don't consider myself a guru either. Just huge number of posts or lot of replies don't make one a guru. I also faltered as on last page on the emergency AP, thankfully someone pointed out, and I learnt not to reply out of just mind's whim without researching.

You did well in this reply, your understanding is correct.

I'm no guru. But I found this awesome model put together by Spec (possibly with help from others?) here
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011

According to this work, it will be sometime in in FY 2013 at best or in FY 2014

[qesehmk]

Apr 2008 is on the long end of this years quota. The way DoS usually moves is a step function. Little to none till may and then huge movement for rest of the year. This year is a bit unusual because they need to take in a lot more cases. However to answer quickly - more than likely you will be counted against in 2013 quota. The exact timing could be anybody's guess but if you put a gun to my head I would say Q1-Q2 of 2013 could be it.

Thanks Q, When you say 2012 is that FY 2012 or merely calendar year 2012? What I'm asking is will I have to wait for 2013 quota before the dates progress into Apr 2008? Or will it happen in the forthcoming 3-4 months?

On a general note, it would be very helpful to capture in the beginning of the thread what the Guru's expect the movement to be each month going forward for the next 10-12 months with some explanation of the rationale behind the thinking.

For example:
Nov 2011 to March 2012 - Dates will reach March 2008 to build demand pipeline
Apr 2012 to June 2012 Dates will retrogress to somewhere between Nov 2007 to Feb 2008
July 2012 to Sep 2012 - Dates will start to move again?

Obviously the dates and predictions in my example may be completely bogus but that's where your extensive experience in analyzing the models would help and make the predictions closer to reality. Thanks!

[yesman]

Pretty sure it won't be 2014. I think it will be Q1 or Q2 2013 but wanted a more "informed guess" based on the new developments.

There is roughly a 37K demand prior to your date. Add some 7K of porting and and we are looking at roughly 44k prior to your date. Does that not put it more in Q4 2013 (best case scenario)? My intent is clearly not to be pessimistic but to understand the movement better along with everyone here.

[yesman]

Apr 2008 is on the long end of this years quota. The way DoS usually moves is a step function. Little to none till may and then huge movement for rest of the year. This year is a bit unusual because they need to take in a lot more cases. However to answer quickly - more than likely you will be counted against in 2013 quota. The exact timing could be anybody's guess but if you put a gun to my head I would say Q1-Q2 of 2013 could be it.

Thanks Q! Waiting for a year before I can file for 485 does not look all that bad from where I stand now. I have been with my current employer for over 5 years and would like to do something new but that's about my only complaint.

[ct06511]

ct06511,

1) The day your application packet received at USCIS, your PD should be current. Post mark date doesn't matter.

2) Paper clips are recommended.

Veni, thanks for the reply!

I understand that there is no clear requirement for assembling the packet. What we can do is to make it more convenient for the reviewer to find what she/he needs.

The following tip seems to be applicable to supporting documents only. For individual forms, I wonder what problem staples can cause.

"Use paperclips when attaching supporting personal documents to forms (do NOT use “ACCO” fasteners; staples are acceptable when attaching fees)."

[iamsheshu]

Hello Folks,

Any guess when can I expect my EB2 to be current given my priority date is Oct 2008.

Thanks,
Ankur

[imdeng]

Please see Spec's model - that will answer your question.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011

Hello Folks,

Any guess when can I expect my EB2 to be current given my priority date is Oct 2008.

Thanks,
Ankur

[qblogfan]

I am not a guru, but I think your chance is 60%.

I think Mr.CO needs to have a buffer zone of 5k-10k at least. You should be included in this buffer zone. It's just my personal opinion for your reference.

Thanks Q, When you say 2012 is that FY 2012 or merely calendar year 2012? What I'm asking is will I have to wait for 2013 quota before the dates progress into Apr 2008? Or will it happen in the forthcoming 3-4 months?

On a general note, it would be very helpful to capture in the beginning of the thread what the Guru's expect the movement to be each month going forward for the next 10-12 months with some explanation of the rationale behind the thinking.

For example:
Nov 2011 to March 2012 - Dates will reach March 2008 to build demand pipeline
Apr 2012 to June 2012 Dates will retrogress to somewhere between Nov 2007 to Feb 2008
July 2012 to Sep 2012 - Dates will start to move again?

Obviously the dates and predictions in my example may be completely bogus but that's where your extensive experience in analyzing the models would help and make the predictions closer to reality. Thanks!

[qblogfan]

My personal opinion is August/September/October of 2012.

Hello Folks,

Any guess when can I expect my EB2 to be current given my priority date is Oct 2008.

Thanks,
Ankur

[suninphx]

Hi Spec,

Can you please tell me your thinking behind assumption -

Overall, this means that 68% of EB2 PERM certifications for PD2007 reach the I-485 stage and 72% of EB2 PERM certifications for PD2008 reach the I-485 stage.

I would think because of recession in 2008 , the number of PD2008 applications reaching I485 stage will be less than PD2007. (added fact that there is no EAD protection)

[vizcard]

There is roughly a 37K demand prior to your date. Add some 7K of porting and and we are looking at roughly 44k prior to your date. Does that not put it more in Q4 2013 (best case scenario)? My intent is clearly not to be pessimistic but to understand the movement better along with everyone here.

True but that would be to get the GC. With CO wanting to build inventory, wouldn't the PD become current sooner? Again, I'm just talking about being to apply.

The discussions for the last couple of months have been about BTM and SFM and such. The underlying premise for these is to build inventory and not to actually give the green card in any given month.

[jkrocks]

If CO needs to build inventory....he can move the dates to any date he wants..question..is how much does he want to build;-) I am sure it will be one heck of a ride ...for next two bulletins!..by this way this is just a guess..in college days i had this on my door "PUSH" --> Pray Untill Something Happens..I believe in PUSH;-)

[iamsheshu]

Thanks for the info, but I didn't get it quite right. I'll check again. Appreciate your response.

Please see Spec's model - that will answer your question.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011

[iamsheshu]

My personal opinion is August/September/October of 2012.

Thanks Pal for your quick response. Is this your assumption or based on any data that you can provide ?

[qblogfan]

There are more than 40k demand before you, so your chance to file 485 in this round of demand build up is very small. But you should be able to file 485 in the next year's demand build up. The next demand build up may happen in the next summer or next fall. That's why I think you should be able to file 485 around August-October next year.

Again, I am not a guru, it's just my personal opinion. I don't want to mislead you with unreliable information. Please think twice if you use my info. to make future decisions.

Thanks Pal for your quick response. Is this your assumption or based on any data that you can provide ?

[qblogfan]

My personal opinion is that his target is around 35k. In the past several years the SOFAD has been between 20k-30k except one year and I think he knows this range. Additionally he needs a buffer to make sure he will have enough demand in the spillover season and the buffer should be around 5k-10k. Not every submitted 485 can be approved by next summer, so it's critical for him to have a buffer zone to give him more space to manipulate numbers.

If CO needs to build inventory....he can move the dates to any date he wants..question..is how much does he want to build;-) I am sure it will be one heck of a ride ...for next two bulletins!..by this way this is just a guess..in college days i had this on my door "PUSH" --> Pray Untill Something Happens..I believe in PUSH;-)

[qblogfan]

My personal opinion is that you should be able to submit 485 in the next summer or fall and get your GC in the summer of 2013.

Again, it's just my personal opinion, please consider it carefully when you make your decisions based on this info. in the future.

True but that would be to get the GC. With CO wanting to build inventory, wouldn't the PD become current sooner? Again, I'm just talking about being to apply.

The discussions for the last couple of months have been about BTM and SFM and such. The underlying premise for these is to build inventory and not to actually give the green card in any given month.

[qblogfan]

Thanks! I also hope they can maintain the status quo on I140 backlog. The less demand from other catergories, the better for us!

You are most welcome qbf.

You deserve your upgrade, I shall never forget you.

Guru thou shall be bestowed soon at this rate!

Ideally speaking, CO should grab till 1st Feb 2008 in Dec VB and till 1st may 2008 in Jan VB and then he will have a good inventory with buffer. Let's hope for this best case.

Let's also hope that their focus on 485 inventory maintains status quo on 140 backlog. Remember sometime next year PP in EB1C is coming to spoil party a bit.

[Airbender]

I have been a lurker but now would like to work on my own analysis.

I don't get how the calculations work here. What should be the starting point for understanding all this data ? Are there any equations that I should be looking at ?

Thanks!

[girish989]

Hello Gurus,

Now that we know that people will get a chance to file 485 few months in advance because of all the pipe line building that CO is doing, can you guys prepare a chart with predictions of when people get to file their 485 Vs their priority date.

This will helpful for number of people who visit the forum.

Thank you all.

[qblogfan]

Spec has prepared very nice charts and tables. Please see Facts and Data.

Hello Gurus,

Now that we know that people will get a chance to file 485 few months in advance because of all the pipe line building that CO is doing, can you guys prepare a chart with predictions of when people get to file their 485 Vs their priority date.

This will helpful for number of people who visit the forum.

Thank you all.