EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[qesehmk]

This is going to be heck of a weekend then Enjoy the freedom! Congrats!

Received approval email for myself and my wife last evening :-) My priority date is 6/27/2007.

Q - Thanks for this forum. Have been following you since IV. You and others (Teddy, Spec, Veni and all) provided a good picture through your analysis to all of us.

Good luck to all....

[veni001]

Received approval email for myself and my wife last evening :-) My priority date is 6/27/2007.

Q - Thanks for this forum. Have been following you since IV. You and others (Teddy, Spec, Veni and all) provided a good picture through your analysis to all of us.

Good luck to all....

PD0607,
Congratulations! Great news to start your weekend.

[venkimakthal]

indiaeb2, Good one

[indiaeb2]

indiaeb2, Good one

I am glad this helped you

[visagcinfo]

I am current with Nov VB. Congrats to those who became current, and others are one step closer.
At last I was able to reach the bottom of this thread just today since Wednesday morning. Some one gave the direct link to the PDF with November VB Wed morning, I started hitting that while reading thru the posts (I guess it had "November" instead of "Nov" - hence the link didn't work).. the posts were growing so fast that I couldn't catch up (while multi-tasking) and I guessed there was something cooking hot. Then, a friend called me and said that I am current.

[qblogfan]

Thanks for sharing.

I think they already decided this plan a long time ago.

I believe in their computer they already decided all the bullitens using some data we don't know.

latemost I have heard is June 2008 of a user on IV.

btw, on ron gotcher's forum: http://www.immigration-information.c...-future-15096/

see his note:

"I don't think that anyone outside of the State Department has a clue as to future cutoff date movement in the short term. There are just too many unknown variables. Perhaps the best indication is the interval we see between when the NVC sends the fee bill and the individual's priority date. Generally, the NVC does not send a fee bill until they estimate that the person's priority date will be current within half a year. I randomly picked three fee bills that we have received in the last few months to get an idea of what the NVC is doing. In April, we got a fee bill for an India EB2 applicant with a cutoff date of September, 2007. In May we got one for someone with a cutoff date in November. In June we got one for someone with a cutoff date in January, 2008. When I get time, I'll go through all of our fee bills and put together a list of the fee bill dates and the corresponding cutoff dates.

Before anyone tries to use this for precise calculations, please understand that the NVC simply makes their best guess. They could be off by months. At the same time, they have access to the best backlog data available."

He is also pointing to a monthly staggered approach co-relation between NVC fee bills and EB2 PDs. Similar monthly staggered approach has been so far in the VB date movements. touchwood.

[tnayar78]

Thanks for sharing.

I think they already decided this plan a long time ago.

I believe in their computer they already decided all the bullitens using some data we don't know.

Fiscal Year: 1992 - Average Movement: -4.4 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1993 - Average Movement: 28.77 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1994 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1995 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1996 - Average Movement: -14.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1997 - Average Movement: 16.23 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1998 - Average Movement: 17.93 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1999 - Average Movement: 40.93 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2000 - Average Movement: -11.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2001 - Average Movement: 23.33 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2002 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2003 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2004 - Average Movement: 12.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2005 - Average Movement: -59.87 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2006 - Average Movement: 31.9 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2007 - Average Movement: 21.87 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2008 - Average Movement: -12.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2009 - Average Movement: 22.07 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2010 - Average Movement: 15.7 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2011 - Average Movement: 11.4 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2012 - Average Movement: 6.67 month(s)+ X? how much more i think some where between 2-4 months based on trend for past 3 years and number of perm filings

[R080107]

Guys, Nov Bulliten is out. EB2 is 1st Nov!!!

[qesehmk]

JAGO MOHAN PYARE! RDSINGH let us know that 2 days back. But thanks anyway for sharing!!

Guys, Nov Bulliten is out. EB2 is 1st Nov!!!

[Teja9999]

Thanks for the quick response, some one will be monitoring my mail everyday( i hope i wont miss anything) in that case can i postpone my finger print?

[pch053]

Thanks for sharing.

I think they already decided this plan a long time ago.

I believe in their computer they already decided all the bullitens using some data we don't know.

If Ron Gotcher's NVC receipt dates logic hold true, EB2-I/C PDs should move to anywhere around Jan'08 in the Dec bulletin, which sounds quite reasonable at this point of time.

[rdsingh79]

deleted...duplicate post

[leo07]

TeddyK and everyone who became current in November VB, CONGRATULATIONS and Good Luck!

[nishant2200]

GC can be obtained either via AOS (adjustment of Status) or CP (Consular Processing).

AOS is suitable for people already in USA and only their immigration status needs to be adjusted.

CP is suitable for people not in USA and would come to USA when they get green card to start the job being offered in GC.

In case of CP, instead of USCIS, its NVC (National Visa Center) who processes the GC. Typically when they anticipate that the applicant's PD will be current in next 6 months to one year, they send out a fee bill for processing the last stage, and the applicant has to pay fees and start the last stage process of submitting a packet of required documents etc. Once this happens, the applicant becomes documentarily qualified, and when the date really becomes current, the USA consulate in the applicant's home country, schedules an interview him, and if interview passes they grant him green card.

If you see that thread of Ron, you will see he is ill and recovering, and has as of yet, not done further work on tabulating this data and publishing to us.

Hello Nishant, I am not familiar with this terminology. What are fee Bills, and what is NVC?

It seems his estimates are closely matching as of today. In May they sent fee bill (what ever that is) for November, and now we are expecting November people to be current in December bulletin, which is about 6 months time after fee bills are sent (matches what he said). If that estimate (should i call it theory?) is right, January bulletin is expected to take us thro Jan 2008 (June to December is 6 months). Can we ask Ron help check what is the latest on Fee bill sent date (if possible in Sept)? After all getting EAD isn't bad.

[qblogfan]

Thanks guys.

I saw more than 10 EB2-C approvals today. It looks like they are approving many cases right now. Maybe they will use the whole year's quota in this month alone. I don't understand their logic behind this. It's totally random.

Fragomen is big shot attorney. If he says this, it has weight.

rdsingh79, dude, you have in the last few days, contributed utmost significantly. May you win a BMW X5 M series in lottery.

[manubhai]

Big congratulations to all who just became current!!

Nishant... hang in there... and save more money than just for the vaccines... you'll need it throw a party for yourself!

[nishant2200]

zamaane ke saath ashirwaad bhi change ho gaye batao... kahan phooloo phalooo aur kahan BMW jeeto lottery mein :-) ( i cant translate this...)

I thought giving him lot of money will create unnecessary tension in life, why not enjoy this wonderful 100k car instead with 3D maps and monster engine.

[TeddyKoochu]

TeddyK and everyone who became current in November VB, CONGRATULATIONS and Good Luck!

Thanks Leo, finally the term PWMB will be history come November, Now Iam trying to get everything together hopefully will try to have my case filed on the 1st. After so many years the boat will finally arrive. It almost feels like getting GC itself, Iam confident I wont have to renew h1 next year now.

[Gclongwait]

My companies’ lawyer (Fragomen) sent out a note to employees with EB2IC priority date after Nov 1 to get ready with I-485 documents (fill in questionnaires etc), as they anticipate the cut-off dates to move forward in coming months. One of my frd with PD in Jan 2008, got such note. I know it is not surprising but just thought about sharing with you guys….

rdsingh, can you find out if someone with a Feb 08 or later PD also get a note.

[venkimakthal]

My companies’ lawyer (Fragomen) sent out a note to employees with EB2IC priority date after Nov 1 to get ready with I-485 documents (fill in questionnaires etc), as they anticipate the cut-off dates to move forward in coming months. One of my frd with PD in Jan 2008, got such note. I know it is not surprising but just thought about sharing with you guys….

Sounds good to me, but I need to wait few more months I believe as my PD is April 8, 2008

[self.coach]

Q, how much will the retrogression be? My PD is 08/20/2009 and I have been praying for EB 2 to be current although not losing my sleep over it.

The dates where they are today will not retrogress - at least not until 3 months from now. Rather they could progress 3-6 months.

A movement beyond 6 months is certainly likely to retrogress at some point of time.






More than likely your case is preadjudicated. Its quite likely you will receive GC in hand in 2-3 weeks - especially if you are working for a fortune 500.

[rdsingh79]

I will try to find out. One other frd with PD in late April 2008 did NOT get the note.

rdsingh, can you find out if someone with a Feb 08 or later PD also get a note.

[nishant2200]

Thank you manubhai. You are doing great job. I have been noticing your efforts on various other forums too for the advocacy.

Big congratulations to all who just became current!!

Nishant... hang in there... and save more money than just for the vaccines... you'll need it throw a party for yourself!

[qesehmk]

I think the chances of category becoming current this year are nil. DoS demonstrated their appetite of gradual movements in Novemeber bulletin.

On 5 year course EB2 will move 1 yr per year. For 2009 please refer to spec's data in facts and data section.

Q, how much will the retrogression be? My PD is 08/20/2009 and I have been praying for EB 2 to be current although not losing my sleep over it.

[ravisekhar]

I will try to find out. One other frd with PD in late April 2008 did NOT get the note.

for the one that got the note. Do you know his exact priority date. the reason i am asking is my priority date is jan 10th 2008.