EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

**Spectator** · 10-05-2011, 01:07 PM

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Current Trackitt Trend
EB1-C - 4
EB3 - 2
EB2 ROW - 5
EB2 - 9

Out of the 11 approvals 1 is a PWMB case, 4 are porting cases. This leaves 4 cases which became current in Oct and got approved. Overall the Eb2 approval trend seems to be good its split evenly between the newly current cases and older cases.

Once you correct the data for Porting and CofC it is slightly different (although not much

) .

EB1-C ---- 4 (all Indian)
EB3 ------ 1 (1 ROW)
EB2 ROW -- 5
EB2-I --- 10 (1 Porting case still shown in EB3)

Of the 10 EB2-I, they are broken down as follows:

FY2011 Cut Off Dates --- 0
FY2012 Cut Off Dates --- 4
Porting ---------------- 6
Total ----------------- 10

EB1 approvals are very healthy compared to the same period last year (although that was probably artificially low).

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...012-vs.-FY2011

**codesmith** · 10-05-2011, 01:08 PM

Originally Posted by needid

one off topic question
Do we(Employee) receive original I-140 approval? I have only approval notice, Never saw the original I-140, according our admin guy they(Employer) would get only approval notice.It looks like for filing I-485,we don't need original I-140, if one exist, we just need,
--Approval notice for I-140, Immigrant Petition for Alien Worker;

Anybody thinks otherwise.

Original I-140 in sent to your employer and what I found from my personal experience and others is : DESI employers never share it ... even the photocopy.
Since your 485 would be filed by your employer s/he would send 140 and other docs when submitting your 485.

**nishant2200** · 10-05-2011, 01:08 PM

Yes I believe it should not be any problem.

GC is for future job anyways. Only thing is did you maintain status in between. Seems to me you have. You can absolutely work for employer A while your H1B transfer is pending, main thing is it should be applied for.

Originally Posted by bhayzone

Guys, I had a question regarding I-485 filing. I would appreciate any help.

I am EB2-I (PD: 10/10/2007) waiting to file I-485. I quit employer A (who filed my PERM/I-140) to join employer B in 2008. Last month employer B laid off 300 ppl and I was one of them, so I rejoined employer A. My H1-B transfer is still pending. If my PD becomes current, will I be able to file for I-485 through employer A (even though my h1b transfer is still pending). It would really suck if I had to wait till my h1b transfer was approved, which could take several months !!!

**TeddyKoochu** · 10-05-2011, 01:08 PM

Originally Posted by soggadu

so what do you project for this bulletin from this?

My projection for the year is that everyone in 2007 will get to file 485, now it’s entirely discretionary with DOS-USCIS how much intake they want to take this month irrespective of everything. Just my guess out of gut feeling if we have intake this month it would be 2-3 months of movement, there is no calculation behind this as we haven't seen much of data in 2012 yet. The fresh intake will happen if they are following the FB model of intake in Q1 and retro in Q2, if they want to follow quarterly spillover then the current inventory itself is good.

**skpanda** · 10-05-2011, 01:12 PM

Below is the answer to your question:

Q: Why were there pending cases listed with priority dates after August 2007 when the Visa Bulletin priority dates was never beyond August 2007?

A: We have reviewed the source data for the inventory and have determined that a number of errors contributed to the appearance of cases with a 2008 or 2009 priority date in countries and preferences for which the priority date has not advanced beyond 2007 in the DOS Visa Bulletin. First, several of these cases had more than one approved I-140, and, rather than list the case by the earlier priority date, we erroneously listed the case by the later priority date. Several more cases were cross-chargeable to a non-retrogressed country but were listed under the retrogressed country. Finally, a handful of cases involved simple data-entry errors.

Source:
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

Originally Posted by mysati

I have one basic question.

I am looking at the table for EB2. If the latest AOS filing date for EB2-I&C was August 07, how come there are 75 extra apps for C between 08 and 11 and 125 for I for the same period. Am I missing something here?

If it has been already answered in last year's post, please pardon me for my ignorance and point me to the post, if possible.

**Monica12** · 10-05-2011, 01:13 PM

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Current Trackitt Trend
EB1-C - 4
EB3 - 2
EB2 ROW - 5
EB2 - 9

Out of the 11 approvals 1 is a PWMB case, 4 are porting cases. This leaves 4 cases which became current in Oct and got approved. Overall the Eb2 approval trend seems to be good its split evenly between the newly current cases and older cases.

Just now, another EB2 I approval (NSC) on Trackitt with July PD. Looks like we now have a couple from all April, May, June and July. Hei bhagwan...meri nayya bhi paar laga do ( Oh God, pls approve mine also soon)

**Spectator** · 10-05-2011, 01:16 PM

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

My projection for the year is that everyone in 2007 will get to file 485, now it’s entirely discretionary with DOS-USCIS how much intake they want to take this month irrespective of everything. Just my guess out of gut feeling if we have intake this month it would be 2-3 months of movement, there is no calculation behind this as we haven't seen much of data in 2012 yet. The fresh intake will happen if they are following the FB model of intake in Q1 and retro in Q2, if they want to follow quarterly spillover then the current inventory itself is good.

Teddy,

As ever, very well summarized. Hopefully the November VB will give us a clue as to which approach is being followed.

**soggadu** · 10-05-2011, 01:17 PM

Originally Posted by needid

one off topic question
Do we(Employee) receive original I-140 approval? I have only approval notice, Never saw the original I-140, according our admin guy they(Employer) would get only approval notice.It looks like for filing I-485,we don't need original I-140, if one exist, we just need,
--Approval notice for I-140, Immigrant Petition for Alien Worker;

Anybody thinks otherwise.

140 application is company property...all you need is 140 approval notice to get the A number from there and to check you were in the right lane (EB2/3)... i believe a copy of approval is all they need to apply for 485... so chill...

**needid** · 10-05-2011, 01:19 PM

Thanks Nishanth, Codesmith.

Originally Posted by nishant2200

Approval Notice of I-140, that you have, is all is needed to attach to I-485 application.

**soggadu** · 10-05-2011, 01:20 PM

Originally Posted by bhayzone

Guys, I had a question regarding I-485 filing. I would appreciate any help.

I am EB2-I (PD: 10/10/2007) waiting to file I-485. I quit employer A (who filed my PERM/I-140) to join employer B in 2008. Last month employer B laid off 300 ppl and I was one of them, so I rejoined employer A. My H1-B transfer is still pending. If my PD becomes current, will I be able to file for I-485 through employer A (even though my h1b transfer is still pending). It would really suck if I had to wait till my h1b transfer was approved, which could take several months !!!

i dont think that wud be an issue as GC is filed for future employment...

**mysati** · 10-05-2011, 01:21 PM

Originally Posted by skpanda

Below is the answer to your question:

Q: Why were there pending cases listed with priority dates after August 2007 when the Visa Bulletin priority dates was never beyond August 2007?

A: We have reviewed the source data for the inventory and have determined that a number of errors contributed to the appearance of cases with a 2008 or 2009 priority date in countries and preferences for which the priority date has not advanced beyond 2007 in the DOS Visa Bulletin. First, several of these cases had more than one approved I-140, and, rather than list the case by the earlier priority date, we erroneously listed the case by the later priority date. Several more cases were cross-chargeable to a non-retrogressed country but were listed under the retrogressed country. Finally, a handful of cases involved simple data-entry errors.

Source:
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

Thank you SK!

**bhayzone** · 10-05-2011, 01:48 PM

Originally Posted by nishant2200

Yes I believe it should not be any problem.

GC is for future job anyways. Only thing is did you maintain status in between. Seems to me you have. You can absolutely work for employer A while your H1B transfer is pending, main thing is it should be applied for.

I believe I maintained status. My termination date at employer B was 9/21 and the receipt date on the receipt notice for the h1b transfer says 9/22. On the termination package, employer A mentioned that they would be revoking the h1b effective 9/22. Do you think I am covered.

Of course I am looking at an RFE for the employer-employee crap, coz I am missing a client letter (my client does not provide client letters for consultants - at least that is what I think). Though my currently employer has provided a lot of supporting documentation - don't know how it will go. Gosh, just weeks ago I was in a comfortable good position, no worries about GC, almost certain that there would be no hassle. And all of a sudden fate changed it all upside down - now not a day goes by without the burden of uncertainty.

Sorry for the rant .. just couldn't help it.

**TeddyKoochu** · 10-05-2011, 01:50 PM

Originally Posted by Monica12

Just now, another EB2 I approval (NSC) on Trackitt with July PD. Looks like we now have a couple from all April, May, June and July. Hei bhagwan...meri nayya bhi paar laga do ( Oh God, pls approve mine also soon)

The Trackitt trend indicates significant number of approvals thus far. Though we are just into 3 days some thoughts a) EB1 and EB2 ROW are moving steady b) Porting is not small (I have been a believer in the higher end) c) Looks like they want to really approve cases this month it may well match the demand data reduction, this will burn out India’s annual cap completely this month itself at the current rate.

**nishant2200** · 10-05-2011, 01:51 PM

I believe you should be fine regarding the dates.

About the client letter, if your H1 transfer gets approved, there is no problem. I don't think the employer-employee memo applies to 485 processing.

Originally Posted by bhayzone

I believe I maintained status. My termination date at employer B was 9/21 and the receipt date on the receipt notice for the h1b transfer says 9/22. On the termination package, employer A mentioned that they would be revoking the h1b effective 9/22. Do you think I am covered.

Of course I am looking at an RFE for the employer-employee crap, coz I am missing a client letter (my client does not provide client letters for consultants - at least that is what I think). Though my currently employer has provided a lot of supporting documentation - don't know how it will go. Gosh, just weeks ago I was in a comfortable good position, no worries about GC, almost certain that there would be no hassle. And all of a sudden fate changed it all upside down - now not a day goes by without the burden of uncertainty.

Sorry for the rant .. just couldn't help it.

**casantino** · 10-05-2011, 02:00 PM

Hi Nishant,

Don't you also need approval of the employer who sponsored your I-140? If a person moves on to company B from company A (which filed I-140) and applies to for I-485 based on that I-140, wouldnt he need approval from company A? What if company A no longer wishes to proceed with the GC of that person?

Originally Posted by nishant2200

Approval Notice of I-140, that you have, is all is needed to attach to I-485 application.

**TeddyKoochu** · 10-05-2011, 02:00 PM

Originally Posted by Spectator

Once you correct the data for Porting and CofC it is slightly different (although not much

) .

EB1-C ---- 4 (all Indian)
EB3 ------ 1 (1 ROW)
EB2 ROW -- 5
EB2-I --- 10 (1 Porting case still shown in EB3)

Of the 10 EB2-I, they are broken down as follows:

FY2011 Cut Off Dates --- 0
FY2012 Cut Off Dates --- 4
Porting ---------------- 6
Total ----------------- 10

EB1 approvals are very healthy compared to the same period last year (although that was probably artificially low).

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...012-vs.-FY2011

Spec, Thanks for correcting and posting based on the initial figures both EB1 and porting seem to be higher than usual. Interestingly most of the EB1 is EB1C and from India, looks like most of these cases were kind of preadjudicated in Sep but they ran out of numbers.

**RRRRRR** · 10-05-2011, 02:04 PM

you will be ok, if they have sent a package out on 09/22 then it will take another 2-3 months to cancel the H1 unless they filed it premium which i am sure never happens and then it can get cancelled in 15 days.
Looking at your situation I guess you are well covered and I do not see any issues with it. I read an article on Murthy around a year back and i will see if i can find it again and forward that to you...Good luck

Originally Posted by bhayzone

I believe I maintained status. My termination date at employer B was 9/21 and the receipt date on the receipt notice for the h1b transfer says 9/22. On the termination package, employer A mentioned that they would be revoking the h1b effective 9/22. Do you think I am covered.

Of course I am looking at an RFE for the employer-employee crap, coz I am missing a client letter (my client does not provide client letters for consultants - at least that is what I think). Though my currently employer has provided a lot of supporting documentation - don't know how it will go. Gosh, just weeks ago I was in a comfortable good position, no worries about GC, almost certain that there would be no hassle. And all of a sudden fate changed it all upside down - now not a day goes by without the burden of uncertainty.

Sorry for the rant .. just couldn't help it.

**rdsingh79** · 10-05-2011, 02:12 PM

Nov VB is out. EB2IC Nov01 2007

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...in_Nov2011.pdf

And I am current!!!

**Kanmani** · 10-05-2011, 02:18 PM

Thanks rdsingh79
Congrats to friends who are current as of Nov

CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA
AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
The November Employment-based Second preference cut-off date for applicants
from China and India is the most favorable since August 2007. This advancement is expected to generate significant levels of demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices.
While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not
be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be
the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the
cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.

**TeddyKoochu** · 10-05-2011, 02:18 PM

Originally Posted by rdsingh79

Nov VB is out. EB2IC Nov01 2007

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...in_Nov2011.pdf

And I am current!!!

That’s great news, even I became current finally. Sogaddu I believe even you are current. Congrats to everyone finally current.

**cbpds1** · 10-05-2011, 02:19 PM

Great , Im just within 3 months now, phew, congrats to all those who became current!!

Originally Posted by rdsingh79

Nov VB is out. EB2IC Nov01 2007

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...in_Nov2011.pdf

And I am current!!!

**sha_kus** · 10-05-2011, 02:20 PM

nice move congrats to everybody so atleast they can file EAD.

**cbpds1** · 10-05-2011, 02:22 PM

Congrats Teddy !!

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

That’s great news, even I became current finally. Sogaddu I believe even you are current. Congrats to everyone finally current.

**qesehmk** · 10-05-2011, 02:22 PM

Congrats to those current! This confirms with certainty that movement will be gradual rather than 2-3 years or more.

As per why Nov 1? That's almost 3.5 months movement. It is equal to roughly 9K demand (give or take 1-2K). This is the absolute minimum that our model has predicted. So as teh bulletin says further movement will be possible with possibility of retrogression (0% as it is today - to 100% anything beyond May 2008).

Originally Posted by rdsingh79

Nov VB is out. EB2IC Nov01 2007

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...in_Nov2011.pdf

And I am current!!!

**suninphx** · 10-05-2011, 02:22 PM

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

That’s great news, even I became current finally. Sogaddu I believe even you are current. Congrats to everyone finally current.

Congtrats All who are current!!

Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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