WhereismyGC.com Related Discussion & Updates

[whereismygc]

Thanks all for your understanding. In 15 minutes we got overwhelmed and had to move to Google. The updated link is provided above.

[whereismygc]

The DoS has published the Jun 2021 Visa Bulletin.

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...june-2021.html

Our take is that the bulletin while positive still feels very tightly controlled in how the dates are being moved. It makes us wonder if this is because of processing bottlenecks. We are afraid we might be heading towards wastage of visas.

For more details visit: https://www.whereismygc.com/update.php

[whereismygc]

The lack of sufficient movement in EB2-I dates in Jun-21 VB makes us conclude that during 2021 USCIS is on track to utilize around 210K visas (52K less than available). This is unfortunate for the backlogged candidates. We will be glad to be proven wrong. Our forecast is updated accordingly.

#backlog #visabulletin #uscis #greencard #gcforecast

https://www.whereismygc.com

[whereismygc]

After we provided 52K estimated visas being wasted, a number of lawyers are also expressing similar views. Some are soliciting participation in a potential lawsuit against USCIS. Visa wastage can have real negative impact on people and thus such lawsuit can have merit. However as a backlogged community we think simply writing to your own congressman as well as senator about this wastage will be much more impactful, realistic, and lasting. Here is a template we are providing. Take it, read it and if you agree shoot it to your congressman and senator.

------ BEGIN --------
Dear Sir/Madam,

I am writing to make you aware of potential wastage of 52,000 Green Card Visas this year. At a time when an estimated 0.7M people born in India are waiting as much as 10 years such wastage is unconscionable. Estimated 1.2M people are waiting in employment based green card category. Of these more than 0.7M are people born in India. While most other applicants can get a Green Card within 1-2 years, people from India in EB2 and EB3 category (0.7M in total) are facing unimaginable wait times. In fact at the current rates many of these people have no realistic hope to ever obtain a green card during their lifetime.

I am once such person affected by this wastage. May I suggest two specific actions that you can do today?

Action 1 - Please write to USCIS and ask them to use all visas by issuing conditional green cards. The applicant should be able to convert to a permanent card after USCIS is able to process the application fully.
Action 2 - Please write to the President expressing your support for the Biden Immigration Plan and ask him for a final vote on this before Oct 2021.

United States is a land of opportunity because it is a land of justice. The impending visa wastage by USCIS can be verified by simply asking them how many visas they have utilized and intend to use this year. Independent websites like WhereismyGC have estimated 52K visa wastage based on data models of visa demand and date movements in visa bulletin. I ask you to hold USCIS responsible and avoid such a wastage as well as move the ball further on Biden Immigration Plan.

Sincerely,
XXXX

------ END --------

[whereismygc]

In memory of the fallen. Happy memorial day.

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Expires May 31st

[whereismygc]

Yes. There will be. We just added our take at www.whereismygc.com

[whereismygc]

Based on comments by DOS Visa Chief Charlie Oppenheim that 100K EB visas could be wasted during 2021, we have updated our forecast model accordingly.

You can access it at www.whereismygc.com

Earlier about 3 months back we had estimated the wastage to be at least 50K. But our view was that as vaccinations pick up speed and post covid recovery kicks in, DOS and USCIS might get into extra gear, But it was not meant to be.

As of now we think for 2021 the Aug final action dates have some chance of actually getting approved. Not all will though. We do not expect Sep bulletin to bring in any significant dates movement.

For year 2022 though the good news is that the unused 150K on the FB side will rollover to EB and EB quota will be 290K. Whether USCIS will process those many EB applications remains to be seen.

[whereismygc]

Whether EB2 or EB3 will move faster depends on demand as well as visa utilization within that category. If USCIS is going to waste 100K visas this year and perhaps next year, it completely changes the answer to whether EB2 or EB3 will move faster. That's why we have built a tool that allows YOU to change visa levels and see which category moves faster.

www.whereismygc.com

[whereismygc]

Starting Oct 1st, new subscriptions will be charged as follows:

GC Forecast - $12.95/mo & $124.95 /yr
Qs stocks - $24.95/mo & $249.95/yr

All subscriptions purchased prior to Oct 1st 2021 will continue to be charged at the old rates for one more year through Sep 2022. Then they will be converted to the new rates.

[whereismygc]

We are pleasantly surprised to see the speed picked up by USCIS.
We have revised our visa utilization forecast by a whopping 45,000.

https://www.whereismygc.com

[whereismygc]

Our latest forecast is that during 2021 210K visa will be utilized and thus 52.3K visas will be wasted.

Brief history of our visa wastage forecast.
Oct 2020 - Assumption no visa wastage
May 2021 - Estimated 55K visa wastage based on our demand model and dates movement.
July 2021 - Revised 100K visa wastage based on comments by Charlie Oppenheim.
Aug 2021 - Revised 52K visa wastage based on our demand model and dates movement.

Why did Forecast change?
So why these quick frog jumps between May and Aug? A forecast should be stable. Isn't it?

The short answer is Dept of State Visa Control Office (headed by Charlie) has very limited visibility into the operations of USCIS. So in hindsight we should have trusted our own model and dates movements rather than his remarks (which now seem were more conservative than necessary).

The long answer involves the opacity of USCIS operations and the deliberate step approval process they engage in.
1) USCIS doesn't provide a complete or even partial visibility of their case backlog - let alone provide a visibility to the maturity of those cases. So it is a huge guesswork to figure out potential rate of approval.
2) Even worse than #1 is USCIS' deliberate withholding of extra visas right until Aug Sep timeframe. A decade earlier USCIS used to give away unused visas from other categories to backlogged categories on a quarterly basis. But without any explanation they stopped doing that and now they process all or majority of extra visas in August and September. This creates huge potential for visas wastage because it puts extra ordinary burden on their own visa processing capacity. Just think about it they could easily have given away the 52K potential wastage if they had acted earlier. But they CHOSE not to. This is a policy decision that is very difficult to model in our forecast. That's why we have to wait until May 24th to figure out that the visa wastage level.

Is there a value in forecasting
It is natural and fair to ask if this whole forecasting business is useful?

Our view is that forecasting despite the uncertainty involved is useful. It's a way to manage risk and be prepared. Forecasting gives backlogged candidates an excellent ballpark of their wait times. We continue to update the forecast according to the ebbs and flow of the USCIS/DOS operations and news so that when your time nears you get as best picture as possible. We wish you use this information to make your immigration journey as easy as possible and make good decisions about life and career as you wait for your Green Card approval.

All the best.

[sudebusa]

Starting Oct 1st, new subscriptions will be charged as follows:

GC Forecast - $12.95/mo & $124.95 /yr
Qs stocks - $24.95/mo & $249.95/yr

All subscriptions purchased prior to Oct 1st 2021 will continue to be charged at the old rates for one more year through Sep 2022. Then they will be converted to the new rates.

Hi Q - Do you have any plan to launch a "Stocks only" subscription?

Thanks.

[whereismygc]

Hi Q - Do you have any plan to launch a "Stocks only" subscription?

Thanks.

Thank you for your question. Yes, today complimentary access to GC Forecast is included in Qs Stocks. This is primarily because most of our current Qs Stocks members are waiting for GC as well. We can potentially decouple them but given that majority of customers are also waiting for GC it is more convenient to keep GC forecast access in Stocks membership.

But since you asked, we will consider doing so but right now we can't say how soon. Thank you.

[giveittome]

so this whereismygc pessimistic model also predicted my priority date wrong. my pd is july 30,2015 - per charlie it may not become current in FY 2022.

[whereismygc]

so this whereismygc pessimistic model also predicted my priority date wrong. my pd is july 30,2015 - per charlie it may not become current in FY 2022.

FY 2022 hasn't even begun. It is too premature to call the predictions wrong.

[giveittome]

will whereismygc predictions change with this Q3 and YTD 485 data from USCIS?

[giveittome]

will whereismygc predictions change with this Q3 and YTD 485 data from USCIS?

[whereismygc]

will whereismygc predictions change with this Q3 and YTD 485 data from USCIS?

We have added an update on WhereismyGC.com that discusses impact on WhereismyGC forecast.

[whereismygc]

One of the users brought this to our attention. USCIS in a sworn affidavit told a judge last week that they will end up using around 180K visa between them and DOS for year 2021.

USCIS Affidavit


We won't be changing our forecast though. It is too late and futile to change it. If you want you can change the 2021 visas to 180K in iForecast to see how forecast changes.

[whereismygc]

Visa Bulletin Commentary updated online at https://www.whereismygc.com

Basically we think the Oct 2021 VB is a bit reassuring but mostly uneventful.

[montyp80]

Visa Bulletin Commentary updated online at https://www.whereismygc.com

Basically we think the Oct 2021 VB is a bit reassuring but mostly uneventful.

Hi Q, by reassuring, did you mean that 'WhereismyGC' forecast model is still aligned with the FAD/DOF movements in Oct 21? There is a mention of retrogression for EB3I FAD in Oct VB, will this not impact the forecast model?

[whereismygc]

Hi Q, by reassuring, did you mean that 'WhereismyGC' forecast model is still aligned with the FAD/DOF movements in Oct 21? There is a mention of retrogression for EB3I FAD in Oct VB, will this not impact the forecast model?

The forecast model will be updated and aligned on Oct 1st. But always remember that the model and actual VB are not always in sych because of two reasons- 1) the natural ebbs and flows of visa approvals and forecast inaccuracy 2) USCIS underutilization of visas.

Right now the #2 is the bigger driver behind uncertainty. But be that as may be, we will update the model on Oct 1st assuming full visa utilization and including expected spillover. Our tool does provide you way to change the visa availability and simulate what will happen if USCIS uses less visas.

Finally the reason we think the VB is still reassuring is simply because we did not see massive retrogression (which we honestly we expecting because we thought the dates may have been moved too far to allow fast approval of eligible cases. But that doesn't seem to be the case.

Hope this helps.

[montyp80]

The forecast model will be updated and aligned on Oct 1st. But always remember that the model and actual VB are not always in sych because of two reasons- 1) the natural ebbs and flows of visa approvals and forecast inaccuracy 2) USCIS underutilization of visas.

Right now the #2 is the bigger driver behind uncertainty. But be that as may be, we will update the model on Oct 1st assuming full visa utilization and including expected spillover. Our tool does provide you way to change the visa availability and simulate what will happen if USCIS uses less visas.

Finally the reason we think the VB is still reassuring is simply because we did not see massive retrogression (which we honestly we expecting because we thought the dates may have been moved too far to allow fast approval of eligible cases. But that doesn't seem to be the case.

Hope this helps.

Ok, so if I am reading this correctly, movements in Oct VB exceeded your expectations on the positive side. And if that's correct, why re-align the model? I get that model has no direct dependencies on the VBs but jus trying to understand the need for realignment of model?

[whereismygc]

Ok, so if I am reading this correctly, movements in Oct VB exceeded your expectations on the positive side. And if that's correct, why re-align the model? I get that model has no direct dependencies on the VBs but jus trying to understand the need for realignment of model?

Model is otherwise updated continuously anyway. But beginning of year is the time when we revisit our most basic assumptions, clean out demand from prior year that is now approved and start fresh. e.g. COVID has artificially suppressed EB demand - that was our assumption. But this year it seems DOS has cleared our CP cases better than USCIS has dealt with 485 cases. So that assumption will certainly change how we model our data.

Just one example to illustrate the point.

[montyp80]

Model is otherwise updated continuously anyway. But beginning of year is the time when we revisit our most basic assumptions, clean out demand from prior year that is now approved and start fresh. e.g. COVID has artificially suppressed EB demand - that was our assumption. But this year it seems DOS has cleared our CP cases better than USCIS has dealt with 485 cases. So that assumption will certainly change how we model our data.

Just one example to illustrate the point.

Thank you for that clarification