WhereismyGC.com Related Discussion & Updates

[whereismygc]

The VB seems to have been temporarily withdrawn. But it is still available as of this moment at this link:

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...mber-2020.html

[whereismygc]

We are glad to announce launch of our NEW mobile friendly website www.whereismygc.com
Now you can stay on top of the GC forecast, news, and updates anywhere.

Happy Diwali to everybody. Get 25% off for 3 months. Use promo code SHUBHDIPAWALI25

[whereismygc]

Just a reminder to folks that we do not predict VB movements from one month to next. We focus more on when a candidate might be approved for a green card.

We have built a "Fundamental" model of forecasting. Forecasting has 3 types - technical, fundamental and parametric. Ours is a fundamental model that looks at fundamental factors such as demand, supply, processing times, denial rates at various stages etc.

VB date movements can be jerky - simply to build new backlog of cases. They are a poor predictor of when a candidate case might be approved.

[whereismygc]

Starting this month, every month we will publish our take on Visa Bulletin. This will be accessible to paid members at https://www.whereismygc.com/update.php

[whereismygc]

We have started this Facebook group for discussing issues of backlogged people.

This is not meant for "Calculations and Predictions" but for usual Q&A between users. We too of course will answer what we can.

EB Green Card Backlog

[whereismygc]

What
Today Senate passed an amended HR1044 by unanimous consent. This bill removes country caps from EB category and lifts them to 15% in FB categories.
HR1044 was originally sponsored in the house by Rep Zoe Lofgren of California. It passed house in Sep 2019. Since then it came to senate where Sen. Lee proposed a competing bill, S386 which likely is incorporated into an amended HR1044 and now stands passed the senate.

So What
If this bill becomes law, wait times for EB-IC will drastically reduce and those for all other countries will eventually come to parity with EB-IC. (There are some nuances but not worth discussing right now).

Now What
Since an amendment is passed rather than the original house bill, this amended bill heads back to congress that needs to quickly pass this. It is anybody's guess what will happen given the short time left during this congress' term. Let's hope the house passes it and then President Trump signs this into a law within next seven weeks. Congress only has 2 weeks left of its current session.

Link to a copy of the amended HR1044

https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/attac...6&d=1606958983

[whereismygc]

There are widespread and inaccurate reports that S386 is passed. That's not true.

S386 was a competing senate bill to HR1044. It is where it is. In the judiciary committee.

What was passed in the senate yesterday is an amended HR1044.

It means that the house only needs to approve the amendment. If it were S386 being passed then there would have been a long and painful process of reconciling house bill and senate bill. With amendment there is some (not a whole lot) hope that the house may actually take this up and pass.

It all depends on how complicated and contentious the amendment is or is not.

[whereismygc]

Forecast updated.

Over the weekend we had an update to ROW data. The model now stands updated.

[whereismygc]

Removal of country caps is necessary but not sufficient to alleviate the long wait times in EB Green Card backlog.

Here is our estimate of how wait times will look now and in future for people who file for green card today.

https://www.whereismygc.com/Images/2020-wait-times.jpg

2020-wait-times.jpg

[whereismygc]

As you might recall, senate recently approved HR1044 with amendments. These amendments - according to Zoe Lofgren - make the matter worse. With clock running out for the congress, this bill is almost dead on arrival. However right now we see a smokescreen being created where the narrative is that the Chinese are opposed to the bill because of the offensive language. In our judgement this is a sideshow not worth discussing. The reality of the bill is it has very little if any chance of passing during this congress.

However during next administration we do think similar bills can be passed with right level of advocacy.

[whereismygc]

If you are paid customers of WhereismyGC - do check out our "Stocks" feature.

In just 2 weeks since we launched we are 3 out of 3 on all 3 ideas we pitched. On Friday we pitched one at 8.48 that is trading at 9.9 as of right now.

This feature is included in your WhereismyGC membership as of now.

[whereismygc]

Thanks @spacetime

We will review this new information (which seems credible) and update our forecast model by tomorrow morning. Stay tuned.

Gurus,

I’m sure you must have seen David Bier’s tweet for pending AOS for India as of March 31, 2020. Here is the link.

https://twitter.com/david_j_bier/sta...431284738?s=21

Based on these numbers , what do you think of chances of advancements for EB2/3 India?

[whereismygc]

The forecast was updated after incorporating some elements of data that Mr. David Brier published on twitter after receiving from USCIS.

Details - The data was overall in line with our projections in terms of magnitude. But the timing of some of the numbers was off. There were some elements that we retained but mostly we chose to ignore the data as we felt more confident in our own data. Later on if our forecast diverges significantly from reality then we will revisit this. But at this time we feel good about our own data and as mentioned earlier did make adjustments to EB1 and some other data.

The forecast can be accessed at https://www.whereismygc.com

Free trial is available for new users.

[whereismygc]

WhereismyGC.com is down for year end maintenance today. Please bear with us. We will be up tomorrow.

If we finish early we will let you know. Apologies for the inconvenience.

The site is now Up

[whereismygc]

Trump's visa ban although unfortunate for many will be again useful for the backlogged community. Our estimate is that this will result in EB category getting another 120K visas from EB for year 2022. You can model this in iForecast on WhereismyGC. Once logged in, just adjust the 2022 number to 260,000. And see how that affects your wait time for green card.

As of now we will not implement this change in our forecast. But this has become a good possibility that you can model yourself and see its effect.

[Palver]

Trump's visa ban although unfortunate for many will be again useful for the backlogged community. Our estimate is that this will result in EB category getting another 120K visas from EB for year 2022. You can model this in iForecast on WhereismyGC. Once logged in, just adjust the 2022 number to 260,000. And see how that affects your wait time for green card.

As of now we will not implement this change in our forecast. But this has become a good possibility that you can model yourself and see its effect.

How likely is this? And what can prevent this spillover besides congress passing a law forbidding it?

[whereismygc]

How likely is this? And what can prevent this spillover besides congress passing a law forbidding it?

The only thing that will reduce the spillover from 120K is if the virus is well controlled worldwide and the US consulates work overtime to reduce CP backlog.

The probability of spillover of 120K is 70% and 160K is 50% (just a gut feel).

[mesan123]

I am getting server not found when i am trying to open whereismygc site? Does anyone have same issue??

[whereismygc]

I am getting server not found when i am trying to open whereismygc site? Does anyone have same issue??

Hi Mesan

The site is up and running fine. Are you still having issues?

[mesan123]

Hi Mesan

The site is up and running fine. Are you still having issues?

today i was able to login. Thank you

[whereismygc]

If you wish to receive stock alerts, you can update your preference in you profile settings on www.whereismygc.com

Now on, the alerts will go out only to those that expressly opt for it.

[whereismygc]

After successfully piloting Qs Stocks feature and seeking your feedback, we are introducing Stocks as a separate plan. With this plan you will get access to forecast as well as stock tips and alerts. Accordingly our terms have been changed to reflect this new service and associated terms.

Over last 2 months, if you had invested 1000 dollars each in the 12 stocks we alerted, your money would have doubled and you would have earned roughly $12,000. You can view our performance HERE. The new plan is being introduced at a low introductory price of $24.95. As year goes by and you get more and more value, do expect this price to go up significantly. There is no way you will double money every two months. But we sure hope that you make much much more than what you pay for this plan.

We look forward to providing you great alerts and tips as well as hearing from you any feedback.

[whereismygc]

We have updated the forecast model to account for potential extra visas EB categories might receive from under usage in Family categories in 2021 due to ongoing COVID situation. As time goes by we will continue to update our estimate.

[whereismygc]

If you can't view your plan features, just write to us. Please do not purchase a duplicate subscription.

Our payment processor is renewing subscriptions 2 hours later than usual resulting in a 2 hours window when if you log in, you can't view your plan features.

We apologize for this anomaly. We will fix this in 24 hours!

Thank you for your business and attention.

[whereismygc]

Today in a Youtube live video chat, Charlie Oppenheim, the dept of state official, said that for 2022, he think 275K visas will be available for EB. We will take him on his word and update the 2022 limit to 275K in our model.

At the same time though the 2020 visa usage has showed that DoS and USCIS underutilized 2020 limit by 7K visas. So we are afraid that in 2021, we might see similar wastage. Thus we are lowering 2021 visa limit from 262K to 250K in our model to be realistic how far people may get their GCs.

To view the updated forecast model, please visit us at https://www.whereismygc.com