WhereismyGC.com Related Discussion & Updates

[Zenzone]

Are we updating the model to reflect the current extension of the ban until 12/31? If yes, when can we expect it? Thanks.

[whereismygc]

Are we updating the model to reflect the current extension of the ban until 12/31? If yes, when can we expect it? Thanks.

The latest work visa restrictions won't have any immediate impact on GC forecast. But if the consulates remain closed through Sep then we may be updating the model with additional 3 months of extra data. That could be huge not just this year but also next year.

[Zenzone]

The latest work visa restrictions won't have any immediate impact on GC forecast. But if the consulates remain closed through Sep then we may be updating the model with additional 3 months of extra data. That could be huge not just this year but also next year.

I thought the ban on FB GCs processed through consulates are also extended until 12/31. Here is the excerpt from yesterday's proclamation. It clearly says the EO - 10014 (April EO) is extended and expanded now with the addition of non-immigrant visas. Together this ban is extended till 12/31/20 subjected to review every 30 to 60 days until then -

NOW, THEREFORE, I, DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States, by the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including sections 212(f) and 215(a) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) (8 U.S.C. 1182(f) and 1185(a)) and section 301 of title 3, United States Code, hereby find that the entry into the United States of persons described in section 1 of Proclamation 10014, except as provided in section 2 of Proclamation 10014, and persons described in section 2 of this proclamation, except as provided for in section 3 of this proclamation, would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, and that their entry should be subject to certain restrictions, limitations, and exceptions.

[whereismygc]

I thought the ban on FB GCs processed through consulates are also extended until 12/31. Here is the excerpt from yesterday's proclamation. It clearly says the EO - 10014 (April EO) is extended and expanded now with the addition of non-immigrant visas. Together this ban is extended till 12/31/20 subjected to review every 30 to 60 days until then -

NOW, THEREFORE, I, DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States, by the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including sections 212(f) and 215(a) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) (8 U.S.C. 1182(f) and 1185(a)) and section 301 of title 3, United States Code, hereby find that the entry into the United States of persons described in section 1 of Proclamation 10014, except as provided in section 2 of Proclamation 10014, and persons described in section 2 of this proclamation, except as provided for in section 3 of this proclamation, would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, and that their entry should be subject to certain restrictions, limitations, and exceptions.

We will go through the EO carefully and determine if this warrants extension from GC point of view. Thank you.

[whereismygc]

We did look at the new Trump Executive Order (the second EO). It will have positive impact on backlogged EB candidates should the administration choose to apply the extra numbers to the backlog.

The visa services were affected since Mar 20, 2020. The first proclamation came into effect on Apr 22, 2020. Thus the first period is approximately 3 months. The second proclamation came into effect on June 22 and will be in effect through Dec 2020 giving a total 6.25 months of USCIS fiscal year 2020 impact.

We have baked 3 months into our forecast. But will only provide you guidance on the total 6.25 months just to stay conservative and pragmatic. Additionally, the extension of immigration pause into fiscal 2021 does create the possibility of FB->EB spillover in 2022. But we are going to ignore that too and keep it simple and conservative.

Here are two scenarios. Adjust the 2020 and 2021 visa availability in WhereismyGC as follows:

The first as we said is baked into the forecast. The second is what you can try on your own.

Simulation 1 - Effect of 3 month pause on immigration. (already baked into current forecast)
2020 visa availability - 162,963
2021 visa availability - 181,562

Simulation 2 - Effect of 6.25 month pause on immigration. (NOT baked into current forecast)
2020 visa availability - 169,965
2021 visa availability - 226,587

[EB32010]

Is this implied that EB category is going to get 162,000 visas this FY? How is it
possible when max EB can get is 156,000?

[Zenzone]

Is this implied that EB category is going to get 162,000 visas this FY? How is it
possible when max EB can get is 156,000?

Not sure if I follow your question. Whats the basis of your 156K maximum??

[whereismygc]

Is this implied that EB category is going to get 162,000 visas this FY? How is it
possible when max EB can get is 156,000?

Excellent question. Indeed the max this year is about 156K. So in reality that's how much will be allocated. But our algorithms have no way to stop CP allocation as of now. So in order to get around that limitation we have to top off the current annual quota with spillover quota. Accordingly we have also adjusted the next year's number to simulate a realistic allocation.

Hope this answers your questions.

[EB32010]

Not sure if I follow your question. Whats the basis of your 156K maximum??

140k (this years allocation) + 16k (from FB last year).

[EB32010]

Excellent question. Indeed the max this year is about 156K. So in reality that's how much will be allocated. But our algorithms have no way to stop CP allocation as of now. So in order to get around that limitation we have to top off the current annual quota with spillover quota. Accordingly we have also adjusted the next year's number to simulate a realistic allocation.

Hope this answers your questions.

It did. Thank you.

[bodhi2000]

We did look at the new Trump Executive Order (the second EO). It will have positive impact on backlogged EB candidates should the administration choose to apply the extra numbers to the backlog.

The visa services were affected since Mar 20, 2020. The first proclamation came into effect on Apr 22, 2020. Thus the first period is approximately 3 months. The second proclamation came into effect on June 22 and will be in effect through Dec 2020 giving a total 6.25 months of USCIS fiscal year 2020 impact.

We have baked 3 months into our forecast. But will only provide you guidance on the total 6.25 months just to stay conservative and pragmatic. Additionally, the extension of immigration pause into fiscal 2021 does create the possibility of FB->EB spillover in 2022. But we are going to ignore that too and keep it simple and conservative.

Here are two scenarios. Adjust the 2020 and 2021 visa availability in WhereismyGC as follows:

The first as we said is baked into the forecast. The second is what you can try on your own.

Simulation 1 - Effect of 3 month pause on immigration. (already baked into current forecast)
2020 visa availability - 162,963
2021 visa availability - 181,562

Simulation 2 - Effect of 6.25 month pause on immigration. (NOT baked into current forecast)
2020 visa availability - 169,965
2021 visa availability - 226,587

In-spite of the increased availability due to the extended shutdown. I notice my predicted current date (PD 11/09/2009) did not advance at all. Is this due to most of the visa allocation occurring at the end of the year? Apologize if this is an elementary question.

[whereismygc]

In-spite of the increased availability due to the extended shutdown. I notice my predicted current date (PD 11/09/2009) did not advance at all. Is this due to most of the visa allocation occurring at the end of the year? Apologize if this is an elementary question.

This is a good question. The answer unfortunately is as of now our algorithms can't stop CP demand. We never really envisioned the entire consulate shutoffs worldwide. So we invented a workaround to increase supply just enough. Any spillover one must understand goes to various different categories which most are backlogged. So the share coming to EB-I will be less anyway at least this year.

Our guess is for people with dates in 2010 there will be marked improvement.

If we figure out even better way to simulate , we will let you all know.

[whereismygc]

In-spite of the increased availability due to the extended shutdown. I notice my predicted current date (PD 11/09/2009) did not advance at all. Is this due to most of the visa allocation occurring at the end of the year? Apologize if this is an elementary question.

Here is a bit more nuanced answer.

EB3 is retrogressed across all countries vs EB2 which is only retrogressed across India and China.

Since any extra CP visas must be consumed within retrogressed countries first (and within the country limit) they may not be available for other countries to use.

That's why comparatively EB3 will see modest movement this year compared to EB1 or EB2. Next year will bring significant movement across all categories.

[bodhi2000]

Here is a bit more nuanced answer.

EB3 is retrogressed across all countries vs EB2 which is only retrogressed across India and China.

Since any extra CP visas must be consumed within retrogressed countries first (and within the country limit) they may not be available for other countries to use.

That's why comparatively EB3 will see modest movement this year compared to EB1 or EB2. Next year will bring significant movement across all categories.

Yes, I get that. However I fall under EB2 and the predicted date for EB2 seems a little out off. But then i am no expert! Hoping for the best. Thanks

[whereismygc]

Yes, I get that. However I fall under EB2 and the predicted date for EB2 seems a little out off. But then i am no expert! Hoping for the best. Thanks

Send us an email in case you have further questions.

[whereismygc]

Happy 4th of July to all.

Take 20% off on all plans at www.whereismygc.com

Available today only.

[whereismygc]

A deal has been reached between Senator Durbin and Senator Lee on S386.

Here is a summary. You can read details at Greg Siskind's Blog.

We will do a major rehaul to WhereismyGC if this bill passes. Stay tuned!

Summary

1. Visa caps will be removed from Emp Based Categories from USCIS year 2022 onwards (i.e. Oct 2021 onwards)
2. Children will be protected as long as the 485 was filed before they turned 21
3. All EB applicants can file 485, 2 years after they have an approved 140.
4. Other miscellaneous provisions to tackle H1B abuse.

We think this is a great compromise with a very good chance to pass.

Good luck to all.

[whereismygc]

It almost passed having both co-sponsors agreeing to it. But one of the GOP senators objected and thus killed it for now.

[whereismygc]

Dear All,

Before October we will be introducing recurring monthly and recurring annual subscriptions.

The new plans will be priced at $7.95 per month and $74.95 per year. There will be no contracts.

All existing customers will be able to move to new plans and be eligible for a prorated refund on old plans.

We just want to do our bit to help during these challenging times. These are exciting times as well since potentially over 100K new visas might be available next year.

Stay tuned and god speed to your freedom.

www.whereismygc.com

Expected date for the new plans to be available - Sep 30th, 2020.

We will update this post if there are changes. Apologies for the delay.

[whereismygc]

Since in 2021 we expect 240K EB visas, people have been asking how that will affect their own chances. Please see the steps below.

1. Log in to www.whereismygc.com
2. On your dashboard click on iForecast
3. You will arrive at "iForecast (Self Service Green Card Forecast)" screen. There under "Available visas for 2021", enter 240000.
4. Click submit. It will let you know what difference it can make for your own PD.

[whereismygc]

The DoS has published the Oct 2020 VB.

It is important to note that in light of the anticipated 100K extra visas available for EB this year. the DOS seems to be in a mode to build inventory. They are allowing people to file 485 as far as following dates.

485 filing dates	India	China
EB1	Sep 20	Sep 20
EB2	May 11	Oct 16
EB3	Jan 15	Jun 18
EB5	C	Dec 15

Chinese EB5 hasn't moved much, thus indicating very solid EB5 demand from China.

Congratulation for those able to file 485.

p.s. - It is reasonable to believe that we might see filing dates moving even further to generate more demand/backlog to be processed. We imagine that DoS might move them further once they know the real magnitude of EB demand as well as spillover from last year.

[bookworm]

There is no change in iforecast even after i enter the 240000 (or 256000) Available EB visa data. However changing the number by 10X up or down does generate a change in the iforecast. Am i making a mistake in my inputs?

The graph shows a steady allocation of 461 visa each month till August. Is this due to the assumption that spillover will be applied in Aug & Sept only?

[whereismygc]

There is no change in iforecast even after i enter the 240000 (or 256000) Available EB visa data. However changing the number by 10X up or down does generate a change in the iforecast. Am i making a mistake in my inputs?

The graph shows a steady allocation of 461 visa each month till August. Is this due to the assumption that spillover will be applied in Aug & Sept only?

Hi Bookworm,

Our algorithms mimic how USCIS and DOS work. They do not apply any extra visas to backlogged countries before Q4. However you can use iForecast and see how the behaviour will change if you use early spillover (which we can;t rule out).

Right now the model is not set for 2021 year. We will do so on Oct 1st 2020. However you can still forecast how the 100K extra visas might move dates. Just update 2021 quota to 240K.

If that is not showing you any improvement, it is possible you might be doing something wrong. In that case, send us details of what you are doing your PD etc by email and if possible include a screenshot.

[bookworm]

Hi Bookworm,

Our algorithms mimic how USCIS and DOS work. They do not apply any extra visas to backlogged countries before Q4. However you can use iForecast and see how the behaviour will change if you use early spillover (which we can;t rule out).

Right now the model is not set for 2021 year. We will do so on Oct 1st 2020. However you can still forecast how the 100K extra visas might move dates. Just update 2021 quota to 240K.

If that is not showing you any improvement, it is possible you might be doing something wrong. In that case, send us details of what you are doing your PD etc by email and if possible include a screenshot.

Thank you Q. Most likely user error. I did update the "Enter Available EB Visas" to 240000 and also "Choose Spillover Months" to all months. However no change in the date

I will wait for the Oct 1 update and if have followup questions email through the mailbox.

[whereismygc]

Thank you Q. Most likely user error. I did update the "Enter Available EB Visas" to 240000 and also "Choose Spillover Months" to all months. However no change in the date

I will wait for the Oct 1 update and if have followup questions email through the mailbox.

You don't have to wait. But that's ok. If you change your mind, just send us the details and we will look into it.

p.s. - Q does oversee the whole operation. But this account is a general account managed by available team members. If you ever want to reach Q, directly send him a message using inbox.