General Immigration Discussion

[qesehmk]

Think of Groupon!! They didn't take the google offer and now you see every TDH offering deals on the internet.

Personally i dont have much hopes that the momentum will be sustained. All tech companies(Zynga, LinkedIn, Zillow, Yandex, Groupon and all) are trying to cash_in/cashed via IPO route as quickly as possible. They do that only when they are sure that exit door might be shut for next 2-3 years pretty soon. Besides that, the valuations of some of these coupon companies are out of the whack. I am not an investment expert, but past 2 recessions have taught me the tell tale signs.

[jackbrown_890]

Historically that theory is correct but that will be for big companies, this was kinda global recession and global recovery which has been slow so far. but global recession will shift back to regional recovery after a period since it is still not true global and I am counting on the theory that the regional recovery is gaining momentum in many regions. People have stopped spending in past few months but the savings is getting bigger. eventually people will stop focusing on global recession/recovery and start focusing on the regional recovery and if they have cash they will start spending on small things like underwears. theory of relation between underwear sales and recessions/recovery seems correct. There is a pattern. it seems funny but i find that theory interesting. Anyways my point is i am betting on this regional recovery will add up and lead to overall global recovery.
Anyways, I am hoping this theory is correct. If it is correct, it may not be good for people like me (Eb2 I/C) with later PD. but good for overall future of all of us.
I am hoping some big legislative help from administration and/or congress before next few months to help my GC case.

Personally i dont have much hopes that the momentum will be sustained. All tech companies(Zynga, LinkedIn, Zillow, Yandex, Groupon and all) are trying to cash_in/cashed via IPO route as quickly as possible. They do that only when they are sure that exit door might be shut for next 2-3 years pretty soon. Besides that, the valuations of some of these coupon companies are out of the whack. I am not an investment expert, but past 2 recessions have taught me the tell tale signs.

[kolugc]

Some positive notes

Hiring Like It's 1999
The tech boom is fueling a surge in jobs and creative recruiting

http://www.businessweek.com/technolo...-08012011.html

[haripathhi]

JB,

I liked your analogy here and I must admit this cracked me up big time. Maybe "Rupa Underwear & Banian" company should think of setting up their offices in the US in near future...lol...Good One!

On that note a lil humor here...No offense to anyone

"Agar Rupa ki underwear/banian koi pehenega to Rupa kya pehenegi?"...

Sorry ppl if I offended anyone with that one.

Historically that theory is correct but that will be for big companies, this was kinda global recession and global recovery which has been slow so far. but global recession will shift back to regional recovery after a period since it is still not true global and I am counting on the theory that the regional recovery is gaining momentum in many regions. People have stopped spending in past few months but the savings is getting bigger. eventually people will stop focusing on global recession/recovery and start focusing on the regional recovery and if they have cash they will start spending on small things like underwears. theory of relation between underwear sales and recessions/recovery seems correct. There is a pattern. it seems funny but i find that theory interesting. Anyways my point is i am betting on this regional recovery will add up and lead to overall global recovery.
Anyways, I am hoping this theory is correct. If it is correct, it may not be good for people like me (Eb2 I/C) with later PD. but good for overall future of all of us.
I am hoping some big legislative help from administration and/or congress before next few months to help my GC case.

[ssvp22]

Historically that theory is correct but that will be for big companies, this was kinda global recession and global recovery which has been slow so far. but global recession will shift back to regional recovery after a period since it is still not true global and I am counting on the theory that the regional recovery is gaining momentum in many regions. People have stopped spending in past few months but the savings is getting bigger. eventually people will stop focusing on global recession/recovery and start focusing on the regional recovery and if they have cash they will start spending on small things like underwears. theory of relation between underwear sales and recessions/recovery seems correct. There is a pattern. it seems funny but i find that theory interesting. Anyways my point is i am betting on this regional recovery will add up and lead to overall global recovery.
Anyways, I am hoping this theory is correct. If it is correct, it may not be good for people like me (Eb2 I/C) with later PD. but good for overall future of all of us.
I am hoping some big legislative help from administration and/or congress before next few months to help my GC case.

Only issue is that regional recovery in US is lead by companies like Zynga, Facebook, and Groupon. I dont believe that virtual farming or connecting with friends or group coupons are going to solve the current problems which are really arising out dated and aging workforce. The companies do add value, but just a delta as compared to companies founded in 1990s, like Google. I dont imagine any impact of people's lives if Zynga, Facebook or Groupon were to shutdown today. Whereas you can live without Google.

I my view, there is always a constant struggle between good and evil. And one good day of evil can do years of harm - example Lehman bankruptcy. And in case of India, it is corruption, which wins every day.

[qesehmk]

nishant

Labor sustitution was just like EB1C. Was there misuse? Probably. But that doesn't mean a good program should be shut down. Labor substitution allowed many companies to avoid years of wait on labor approvals. In 2007 (rather 2005) PERM came in with the promise that labor times would be made real time - literrally 60 days. So yes that time it made sense that labor substitution is redundant. But now look ... PERM approval times have varied greatly in last couple of years. So now it doesnt look such a good idea to do away with labor substitution.

Gotcha:

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_procha.html

Uscis did this in July 2007 for GC PERM too, trying to prevent a big bodyshop labor trading loophole, IMHO

[gcseeker]

I just want to respond to some of the posters who said the job market is red hot.You are only examining a very local sample of Social media focussed companies which seem to be redhot and as another user rightly pointed out...this is an bubble in social media startups which will burst very soon.



Proof that the unemployment overall is very very ugly....Dow and Nasdaq both are getting massacred today. Unemployment figures are due tomorrow and then this article from the La Times.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/mone...ports-say.html

Job growth slows and layoffs rise to 16-month high, reports say

The only reason I post this depressing news is for people to be prepared . The economy is not getting better and neither will the PERM filings increase a lot.So use this information to think twice about moving to another job and attemping to recapture PD's.Take into account if there is an sudden slowdown ...you will have to account for an additional year.

The booming stocks of Zynga,Groupon do not add much to the real economy .Ultimately the music is gonna stop and then the real fun begins. Just saying...

P.S Please move my post to the general section if you feel it will divert attention from the numbers

[soggadu]

I just want to respond to some of the posters who said the job market is red hot.You are only examining a very local sample of Social media focussed companies which seem to be redhot and as another user rightly pointed out...this is an bubble in social media startups which will burst very soon.

Proof that the unemployment overall is very very ugly....Dow and Nasdaq both are getting massacred today. Unemployment figures are due tomorrow and then this article from the La Times.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/mone...ports-say.html

Job growth slows and layoffs rise to 16-month high, reports say

The only reason I post this depressing news is for people to be prepared . The economy is not getting better and neither will the PERM filings increase a lot.So use this information to think twice about moving to another job and attemping to recapture PD's.Take into account if there is an sudden slowdown ...you will have to account for an additional year.

The booming stocks of Zynga,Groupon do not add much to the real economy .Ultimately the music is gonna stop and then the real fun begins. Just saying...

Seeker bhai... they were all pointing that IT job market is ek dum zabardast... the overall job market is anyway down... it also looks like Job market for people with bachelors and more is good according to all the old posts...

[grnwtg]

I just want to respond to some of the posters who said the job market is red hot.You are only examining a very local sample of Social media focussed companies which seem to be redhot and as another user rightly pointed out...this is an bubble in social media startups which will burst very soon.

Proof that the unemployment overall is very very ugly....Dow and Nasdaq both are getting massacred today. Unemployment figures are due tomorrow and then this article from the La Times.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/mone...ports-say.html


Job growth slows and layoffs rise to 16-month high, reports say

The only reason I post this depressing news is for people to be prepared . The economy is not getting better and neither will the PERM filings increase a lot.So use this information to think twice about moving to another job and attemping to recapture PD's.Take into account if there is an sudden slowdown ...you will have to account for an additional year.

The booming stocks of Zynga,Groupon do not add much to the real economy .Ultimately the music is gonna stop and then the real fun begins. Just saying...

I guess above posters are talking about job market among tech community and mostly people who have finished 4yr degree/Post-Degree/Phd

and also unemployment for that is around 4.5 and most of probably some of them are just taking break ( since they get unemployment income).
Thought i wont say that this market is also red hot but market is not very bad unlike in 2002/2003 which i consider worst market.

[bieber]

Soggadu

4.6% is better compared to 9.2% but it should be compared with 2.2% avg,

for starters, when the overall unemployment avgs at 5% the Bachelor degree holders are at around 2%.

[qesehmk]

gcseeker ... I do agree that job market will remain ugly and possibly become even uglier. Also agree that some of the social media companies are questionable. No doubt about that.

However there are 2 things that make this time around less of a bubble.
1) There is far less money chasing these companies than in 1999.
2) The tech companies of today are not really tech companies (the ones we are talking - groupon or linkedin etc). They are legitimate business models backed by technology. Contrast this companies from 1999 when the companies were engaged in creating new technology i.e. a language, a platform, a database, a protocol etc. etc. Then the technology itself was so fluid and so the companies were creating technology without a clear understanding of how it will play in the market. There was tremendous lack of clarity about the technology itself. Today the technology building blocks are well in place. And people are trying to build literrally applications using those blocks. This makes is much more viable and less risky.

...this is an bubble in social media startups which will burst very soon.

...
The booming stocks of Zynga,Groupon do not add much to the real economy .Ultimately the music is gonna stop and then the real fun begins. Just saying...

P.S Please move my post to the general section if you feel it will divert attention from the numbers

[soggadu]

Soggadu

4.6% is better compared to 9.2% but it should be compared with 2.2% avg,

for starters, when the overall unemployment avgs at 5% the Bachelor degree holders are at around 2%.

I guess it is standing good against the national averages... so what i meant is we cant really go gaga over national averages and we will still see a lot of perm apps coming in this year and next year...

2.2 vs 5
4.6 vs 9.2

[nishant2200]

Very good point Q. I now see the "noble" intention behind the flexibility. It's just that bodyshops or big Indian IT services firms have always managed to find something to suit them in this, and kind of defeated the original noble intention. It's a testimony to US being fair in laws, that they don't openly outlaw certain practices or companies, but try to put band-aids like this

nishant

Labor sustitution was just like EB1C. Was there misuse? Probably. But that doesn't mean a good program should be shut down. Labor substitution allowed many companies to avoid years of wait on labor approvals. In 2007 (rather 2005) PERM came in with the promise that labor times would be made real time - literrally 60 days. So yes that time it made sense that labor substitution is redundant. But now look ... PERM approval times have varied greatly in last couple of years. So now it doesnt look such a good idea to do away with labor substitution.

[qesehmk]

Teddy

You are right. Our fundamental demand supply model stays in place. However I think this additional insight is also worthwhile data point because over time things tend to reverse to mean.

Friends the movement by number of days is just statistics or information the real thing is how much was the SOFAD or how many cases were cleared. Number of days does not quite adequately represent this. This year we have moved through a very heavy density zone which is probably double density when compared to last year, so we may have moved far more in terms of absolute days last year but this year SOFAD is much higher even though the movement is less in terms of days. If number of day’s model is to be approved current then we must have huge BTM in September . It may remind a lot of us about our college days, the last day before the exam was quite an important day of study when compared with all days in the semester / academic year .

[leo07]

I agree in theory. But it could take a while...to approach mean. I really really don't want to wait until it's proven in our case

Teddy

You are right. Our fundamental demand supply model stays in place. However I think this additional insight is also worthwhile data point because over time things tend to reverse to mean.

[soggadu]

I agree in theory. But it could take a while...to approach mean. I really really don't want to wait until it's proven in our case

dont be so mean leo!!!...let the model approach the mean... ;-)

[soggadu]

What Nishant you are giving proxy to Soggadu :-)

teacher cant give proxy to student JJ ben... laws of proxy calling doesnt work that way ;-)....

N bhai...i like 22 in ur name...my b'day...my pd... all come on 22... :-)

[bieber]

Teddy

You are right. Our fundamental demand supply model stays in place. However I think this additional insight is also worthwhile data point because over time things tend to reverse to mean.

Markets stay irrational longer than u can stay solvant (just in the light of market action today)

[soggadu]

Markets stay irrational longer than u can stay solvant (just in the light of market action today)

Big B... what happened to the markets today...i know very offtopic, but in couple of lines...can you please tell me where the market is heading... ya, Q will anyway move this discussion :-)...



Heyyy...also did u guys notice this...we have visitors from all parts on the world...you can look at the map below .... 2 from africa too... 1 SouthA and 1 NA... wow.... this is globalization at its best i guess...

[bieber]

Soggadu

markets never fell so much in one day since the crisis, Europe crisis, US economy being the reasons, u may see Italy in place of Greece very soon infact may be tomorrow

[soggadu]

Soggadu

markets never fell so much in one day since the crisis, Europe crisis, US economy being the reasons, u may see Italy in place of Greece very soon infact may be tomorrow

Wow.... but it really misses my lay man mind, how italy going default is making our markets take a dump... it shld hv been effected a little but 500+ is a lot...might be nervousness ehh?

[jackbrown_890]

JB,

I liked your analogy here and I must admit this cracked me up big time. Maybe "Rupa Underwear & Banian" company should think of setting up their offices in the US in near future...lol...Good One!

On that note a lil humor here...No offense to anyone

"Agar Rupa ki underwear/banian koi pehenega to Rupa kya pehenegi?"...

Sorry ppl if I offended anyone with that one.

I don't think you have offended anyone. It was a good joke. I am sure guys are not offended. They don't want Rupa to wear any "banian"(underwear). Lol.
Sorry now if I offended someone.
But my point was in good times underwear sales don't change much but in bad times it goes down considerably because that is not the first thing people want to spend money on. Most of the people will keep wearing old ones as long as they can or in the end untill they need the new one. (Underwear is just a small part of real retail sector). So if that happens, now the economy depends on "need" than "want". And when there is demand increase based on "need" instead of "want", it is a true recovery instead of bubble. Demands created based on "want" is false demand. Sometimes it does work but it is not working for this recession/recovery with some stimulus money. But we should start seeing actual retail demand increase in next few months and eventually (theoretically) retail sector should lead the recovery of other sectors.
The stock sell off was definitely bad news but hopefully it is just a temporary panic because of some bad (hitting bottom) indicators. I am really hoping this theory will work and if it does we should start seeing results in month or two. If it does not we should have good amount of SOFAD in even 2012 spillover season.

[gcseeker]

Jack

This theory does not work when the whole world has borrowed from every possible corner and there are no real manufacturing jobs in the Usa . Ultimately every person laid off is an consumer of some other company. House prices are no longer what they used to be ,so the savings nests are all gone. Now the Government also cannot pump money artifically via the printing presses due to the debt deal that was just concluded.

You first heard it here.We will have significant SOFAD in 2012. This depression is here to stay.

I don't think you have offended anyone. It was a good joke. I am sure guys are not offended. They don't want Rupa to wear any "banian"(underwear). Lol.
Sorry now if I offended someone.
But my point was in good times underwear sales don't change much but in bad times it goes down considerably because that is not the first thing people want to spend money on. Most of the people will keep wearing old ones as long as they can or in the end untill they need the new one. (Underwear is just a small part of real retail sector). So if that happens, now the economy depends on "need" than "want". And when there is demand increase based on "need" instead of "want", it is a true recovery instead of bubble. Demands created based on "want" is false demand. Sometimes it does work but it is not working for this recession/recovery with some stimulus money. But we should start seeing actual retail demand increase in next few months and eventually (theoretically) retail sector should lead the recovery of other sectors.
The stock sell off was definitely bad news but hopefully it is just a temporary panic because of some bad (hitting bottom) indicators. I am really hoping this theory will work and if it does we should start seeing results in month or two. If it does not we should have good amount of SOFAD in even 2012 spillover season.

[gcseeker]

Soggadu bhai

Your id reminds of of Sobhan babu and of course the avatar always cracks me up. If I may volunteer my opinion and hopefully I dont divert the thread too much.

1.Markets reacted with unfounded confidence on the state of economy in mid 2009 and inflated themselves to unbeleivable levels . Some may even say the hidden actors orchestrated this.This was due to the effects of the huge stimulus trickling through the system.Free money to borrow from government and then charge interest on the same money lending to others.The government takes care of all the toxic debts on the books and banks went crazy.Companies already were flush with cash and they further reduced headcount making their accounting books and P/E ratios look good.This made their stocks extremely valuable to stockholders and hence you saw companies like BAC go from 2$ to 12$!!!! even with those toxic derivatives on their books.

2.Now the music has stopped.Actually it stopped 2 months back.The debt deal exposed Usa's credit rating to downgrades and those downgrades will happen thus affecting the bonds and Us government security markets which are traditional safe havens from customers.Also the jobs numbers have been dismal coming in the past 2-3 months . Government cannot spend a single pie now (thanks to the debt deal) .So Mr Bernanke cannot use his printing presses.

Also it does not matter if tech is doing okay. Every other job lost is of a person who is an consumer for some other company.Without those people buying products ultimately how will the economy come up.The nation cannot be run by bunch of teenagers browsing facebooks and playing games on Zynga.It requires an manufacturing base and actual products to be produced.Italy and europe are additional concerns adding to this.

There is no way out of this except for the economy to self correct itself finally. This is just the beginning. The only silver lining to this whole thing is ...I feel we will have significant SOFAD in 2012.

Wow.... but it really misses my lay man mind, how italy going default is making our markets take a dump... it shld hv been effected a little but 500+ is a lot...might be nervousness ehh?

[cbpds1]

The market goes down if the manufacturing report and consumer confidence goes down as well

Reg the last sentence, to make use of SOFAD, we folks on H1 must first survive the challenges due to layoffs and USCIS as well.

Soggadu bhai
There is no way out of this except for the economy to self correct itself finally. This is just the beginning. The only silver lining to this whole thing is ...I feel we will have significant SOFAD in 2012.