EB3 Predictions & Calculations

[imdeng]

Spec maintains the gold standard in PERM data collection here: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...mp-Philippines

PERM filings for ROW has indeed come down from the 30K+ levels of 2007 PDs and 2008 PDs. After a low of 15.8K for 2010 PDs, they have rebounded a little to the level of 19.8K for 2012. The recent data should be considered incomplete because of the PERM slowdown. Still - I think ongoing demand from EB3ROW is on the lower side and we should see dates advancing rapidly once the new FY numbers become available.

Post 07/07 density for all EB3 categories seem to be really low. Recent jumbo movements in EB3P also points to the fact.

Spec:

I re calculated the number of PERMS from perchecker.com and it still stand on 18739 for OCT12 to July3
I actually compared historical DOL statistic for previous FY to permchecker and it seems correctly reflecting what DOL released just an offset of +200 applications.

does it really that low number for ROW?
if we consider a 10% denial application on I140 this is 16865

if we apply the 70:30 rule this is 5060 EB3 ROW

is that really is or it is too good be true? does really the number of ROW standing yearly after 2008 on this low number?

also is there a way we can get the number of I140 approvals from USCIS per category and chargeability?

[migo79]

Thnak you imdeng
Spec data is very handy indeed :-)

[saideb2007]

Morning experts,
my PD 2007 EB3I, what are the chances of this PD become current in the near future?
I've read all over the internet and there are no one seem interested in EB3I any more but i found some good posts here and read it carefully.
what i understand is:
the fate of EB3I is much tied to EB3 ROW, if EB3 ROW become current we may see some good spillover to EB3I
if that has to happen when do we expect this spillover to happen?
is there a chance ever my PD become current next year, assuming EB3 ROW become current? or i have to wait another year to get more spillover from EB3 ROW if their rate of filing I485 remain at the current pace?

Thanks for your answer in advance!

[qesehmk]

Morning experts,
my PD 2007 EB3I, what are the chances of this PD become current in the near future?
I've read all over the internet and there are no one seem interested in EB3I any more but i found some good posts here and read it carefully.
what i understand is:
the fate of EB3I is much tied to EB3 ROW, if EB3 ROW become current we may see some good spillover to EB3I
if that has to happen when do we expect this spillover to happen?
is there a chance ever my PD become current next year, assuming EB3 ROW become current? or i have to wait another year to get more spillover from EB3 ROW if their rate of filing I485 remain at the current pace?

Thanks for your answer in advance!

sai - welcome to the forum.
Realistically EB3I can only move 3K per year. That's about 3 months movement per year. So you better upgrade to EB2.

[Spectator]

Morning experts,
my PD 2007 EB3I, what are the chances of this PD become current in the near future?
I've read all over the internet and there are no one seem interested in EB3I any more but i found some good posts here and read it carefully.
what i understand is:
the fate of EB3I is much tied to EB3 ROW, if EB3 ROW become current we may see some good spillover to EB3I
if that has to happen when do we expect this spillover to happen?
is there a chance ever my PD become current next year, assuming EB3 ROW become current? or i have to wait another year to get more spillover from EB3 ROW if their rate of filing I485 remain at the current pace?

Thanks for your answer in advance!

saideb2007,

Welcome to the forum.

I don't think there is any chance of a 2007 EB3-I PD becoming Current in FY2015.

Currently there are about 31k EB3-I cases before 2007 after adding on an allowance for CP cases.

Even though that number may reduce due to porting, it will also increase when PWMB can eventually file their cases.

The amount of Fall Across required in FY2015 to allow a COD in January 2007 is simply too high.

If EB3-ROW become Current in FY2015, it is likely to be in the second half of FY2015 and will generate demand sufficient (depending on the timing) to use most of the ROW allocation. If there is any Fall Across within EB3 in FY2015, I think it is likely to be relatively modest.

Eventually, if EB3-ROW becomes Current, the numbers of ROW cases filed under EB3 will increase - it's inevitable.

I think it will take a few years to reach an EB3-I PD in 2007, even with Fall Across.

[imdeng]

While prima-facie, I agree with Q that you should look at upgrading to EB2I if you have an option; it might make sense to see what is the magnitude of EB3ROW demand shortfall. If, for example, current demand in EB3ROW is low enough that 10K of horizontal spillover is available to EB3I once EB3ROW becomes current, then 2007 might be within reach in next 3-4 years. PERM data does suggest that EB-ROW demand is at historically low levels - so it is possible.

Morning experts,
my PD 2007 EB3I, what are the chances of this PD become current in the near future?
I've read all over the internet and there are no one seem interested in EB3I any more but i found some good posts here and read it carefully.
what i understand is:
the fate of EB3I is much tied to EB3 ROW, if EB3 ROW become current we may see some good spillover to EB3I
if that has to happen when do we expect this spillover to happen?
is there a chance ever my PD become current next year, assuming EB3 ROW become current? or i have to wait another year to get more spillover from EB3 ROW if their rate of filing I485 remain at the current pace?

Thanks for your answer in advance!

[saideb2007]

Thanks Qesehmk ,Spectator and Imdeng

i have to say just WoW!!!, even with 10000 (if happen) it will take 3 to 4 years?
sorry for the naïve question but how did you do these calculations?
also why do the dates for EB3ROW advanced so rapidly while EB3I are crawling, i recall both of us were stuck just couple of years back!!!
just fraustrating

[migo79]

Hi Imdeng,

i think 10000 FA to EB3I is a reasonable expectations based on the available data, i think this is howeverr will be available starting FY16
I also think based on the available PERM data that EB3 ROW would use close to their allocations next year if they become current.
if DOS makes it current by Mid of the FY15 then most of the ROW cases will be adjudicated and no substantial amount of FA will occur

if DOS makes ROW current last quartr then there will be a possibility of more FA to EB3I

[Spectator]

Thanks Qesehmk ,Spectator and Imdeng

Why do the dates for EB3ROW advanced so rapidly while EB3I are crawling, I recall both of us were stuck just couple of years back!!!
just frustrating

I think there are probably a couple of reasons for this:

a) PERM numbers were relatively higher up until 2007/2008, before dropping dramatically in 2009 and then recovering.

b) The change in the Spillover interpretation from FY2008 onwards made EB3 very unattractive and caused a seismic shift downwards in the percentage of people applying under EB3.

All Countries (Philippines being the latest) in EB3 that have passed the 2007/2008 hump have seen rapid advancement of the Cut Off Date.

Unfortunately, EB3-I is left as the only Country yet to pass these dates and still has some way to do so. As with the other Countries, I would expect progress to be faster once they do so. On the positive side, porting of cases to EB2-I has eased the numbers considerably.

[imdeng]

I meant 10k on an annual basis after EB3 is current - I expect none to very little in FY 2015 since there still is a couple of years of backlog to clear.

We don't have visibility into how drastic the post 07/07 demand drop is in EB3. All available data including PERM and PD movement suggests that the drop is quite significant.

Hi Imdeng,

i think 10000 FA to EB3I is a reasonable expectations based on the available data, i think this is howeverr will be available starting FY16
I also think based on the available PERM data that EB3 ROW would use close to their allocations next year if they become current.
if DOS makes it current by Mid of the FY15 then most of the ROW cases will be adjudicated and no substantial amount of FA will occur

if DOS makes ROW current last quartr then there will be a possibility of more FA to EB3I

[imdeng]

Once EB3I crosses 07/07, it will move quite fast just as other EB3 categories have done. Unfortunately, there is a lot of inventory standing between the current PD and 07/07.

For calculations a good place to start would be the USCIS Inventory data, DHS Annual Reports and Spec's excellent compilation of PERM data on this forum.

Thanks Qesehmk ,Spectator and Imdeng

i have to say just WoW!!!, even with 10000 (if happen) it will take 3 to 4 years?
sorry for the naïve question but how did you do these calculations?
also why do the dates for EB3ROW advanced so rapidly while EB3I are crawling, i recall both of us were stuck just couple of years back!!!
just fraustrating

[krishn]

AILA recently met again with Charles Oppenheim to discuss the demand and expected movements in various visa bulletin categories....

no info/mention of EB3-Row or EB3-I by both ??

[migo79]

I think CO is concerned to make sure there are no visa wastage in the final bulletin so he is more concerned with potential Visa waste.
he already knew about EB3 ROw and I

I think the focus will shift to EB3 ROw by October Visa bulleting when EB2I will retrogress and DOL has most of the year to work EB3 ROW and potential movement of EB3 I

[krishn]

I think CO is concerned to make sure there are no visa wastage in the final bulletin so he is more concerned with potential Visa waste.
he already knew about EB3 ROw and I

So you think EB3 visas will go unused or will be wasted like last year ? is it a foregone conclusion ?

[qesehmk]

So you think EB3 visas will go unused or will be wasted like last year ? is it a foregone conclusion ?

I haven't followed this discussion ... so excuse any disconnect on my part. But EB3 has least chance of any wastage given how much mature their backlog is.

[imdeng]

EB3 did not waste visas last year. They did assign more numbers to EB3I compared to EB3ROW - but overall as a category they did not waste visas. This year they seem to have enough demand to not even need EB3I backup. Right now EB3P is the only one seeking more demand - all other EB3 components seem all set for this FY. FY15 would be another story though.

So you think EB3 visas will go unused or will be wasted like last year ? is it a foregone conclusion ?

[justvisiting]

I haven't followed this discussion ... so excuse any disconnect on my part. But EB3 has least chance of any wastage given how much mature their backlog is.

And yet, EB3 has had wasted visas in FY2011, 2012 and 2013...

[justvisiting]

EB3 did not waste visas last year. They did assign more numbers to EB3I compared to EB3ROW - but overall as a category they did not waste visas. This year they seem to have enough demand to not even need EB3I backup. Right now EB3P is the only one seeking more demand - all other EB3 components seem all set for this FY. FY15 would be another story though.

According to the office of immigration statistics, 45321 visas were available for EB-3 on FY2013. (http://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/fil...pr_fr_2013.pdf). Only 43,632 visas were used. Therefore, there was a waste of 1689 visas.

[qesehmk]

And yet, EB3 has had wasted visas in FY2011, 2012 and 2013...

Touche! I concede.

[krishn]

According to the office of immigration statistics, 45321 visas were available for EB-3 on FY2013. (http://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/fil...pr_fr_2013.pdf). Only 43,632 visas were used. Therefore, there was a waste of 1689 visas.

will the EB3 visas again go unused or wasted for the FY14? that will be beyond imagination and excruciatingly painful for EB3 guys.

[krishn]

the other question is, if there are leftover eb3c visas for FY14, will eb3-row get them or eb3I get ?

[imdeng]

Ah - just checked Spec's handy analysis of the 2013 DHS report and you are correct - EB3 did get less than its allocation in FY2013. My mistake.

According to the office of immigration statistics, 45321 visas were available for EB-3 on FY2013. (http://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/fil...pr_fr_2013.pdf). Only 43,632 visas were used. Therefore, there was a waste of 1689 visas.

[imdeng]

One - there shouldn't be leftover EB3C visas for FY14 since the dates are far fron C at the moment. If there is availability then PD can be advanced to generate enough demand.

Two - IIRC the most accepted opinion is that if there is demand available from countries that have not met the 7% threshold (essentially all of ROW) then any spillover will go to them first before it flows to EB3I.

the other question is, if there are leftover eb3c visas for FY14, will eb3-row get them or eb3I get ?

[krishn]

One - there shouldn't be leftover EB3C visas for FY14 since the dates are far fron C at the moment. If there is availability then PD can be advanced to generate enough demand.

guess there was less 485 pending inventory in eb3C and eb3M than the available quota. since the dates are not moved in advance of required 485 processing time these EB3 visas are going wasted or unused.

[imdeng]

Just looking through the inventory data, I had a thought that EB3I's prospects might not bee too bleak going forward. Consider the following:

1. Inventory upto 07/07 is 31.2K as of Apr 2014.
2. Inventory is shrinking due to porting. If we just consider 2004-2007 (i.e only porting reductions), the inventory reduced from ~35K in May 2012, to 32.2K in Apr 2013, to 27.4K in Apr 2014. So - lets call it 3K porting per year from EB3I with PD < 07/07. Add 3K of normal allocation - and you have 6K getting out from inventory every year.
3. Lets assume that we get 0 horizontal spillover in FY2015 and 8K horizontal spillover in FY2016 and FY2017.
4. By end of FY2017, we will run through a total inventory reduction of 6K+6K+6K+8K+8K = 34K
5. So we conclude the the current EB3I inventory will finish by the end of FY2017 (i.e. Sept 2017). Somebody who filed in EB3I on 07/07 will get his/her GC in ~10 years.

Of course there are issues with the speculations above. Porting will slow as dates reach closer to 07/07. Getting horizontal spillover from EB3ROW is something that may happen in very low numbers and might even not happen at all.

Also its worth noting that the density after 07/07 is likely to be quite low. So once dates from 07/07, they should move very quickly.