EB3 Predictions & Calculations

[migo79]

Thank you Spec, that's a good rather excellent explanation

i was checking the numbers and came across this regarding the Perms:
http://data.niunational.org/perm/stats

as you said there is a sharp drop in Perms after 2007, this year (Q1 and Q2) and last year it is significantly low.

I hope things become stable, i was encouraged that VISA bulletin
didn't retrogress further which seems to show the demand has been materialized.

Thank you again

[Spectator]

Thank you Spec, that's a good rather excellent explanation

i was checking the numbers and came across this regarding the Perms:
http://data.niunational.org/perm/stats

as you said there is a sharp drop in Perms after 2007, this year (Q1 and Q2) and last year it is significantly low.

I hope things become stable, i was encouraged that VISA bulletin
didn't retrogress further which seems to show the demand has been materialized.

Thank you again

migo79,

That's a very nice resource. It seems to not have been updated for a year now (the last data is Q2 FY2013), which is a shame.

You can also find some breakdowns in this section of the FACTS & DATA forum including data to Q2 FY2014. You may find it easier to compare years by potential PD and by ROW as a whole. PERM Certifications remained fairly low through Q1 FY2014.

I intend to update the figures as soon as Q3 ends, based on data from dolstats and permchecker. I will then update it again when DOL release the official PERM Disclosure Data for Q3 (but that might take them 6-8 weeks).

P.S.:- Certifications for ROW in Q2 FY2014 were double those for Q1 2014. Q3 is even higher.

[migo79]

Thank you Spec,

i guess that even if the numbers doubled it will be no way near 2006,2007,2008 numbers which i see was really high.

i was actually trying to come up with a magic number for EB3ROW to become current based on demand.

all numbers below are rough estimates of course
if we say 15000 Perm application approved per year out of that 50% are EB2 that will leave EB3 with 7500 if we double that number to account for dependents that will be 15000.

giving that EB3 gets ~34000 per year, was that be enough for EB3 ROW to become current?

i'm definitely assuming the backlog is getting cleared which again based on the number i see appear to be on its way to be cleared in the next 6 months or so.

am i missing something else?

Thanks

[Spectator]

Thank you Spec,

i guess that even if the numbers doubled it will be no way near 2006,2007,2008 numbers which i see was really high.

i was actually trying to come up with a magic number for EB3ROW to become current based on demand.

all numbers below are rough estimates of course
if we say 15000 Perm application approved per year out of that 50% are EB2 that will leave EB3 with 7500 if we double that number to account for dependents that will be 15000.

giving that EB3 gets ~34000 per year, was that be enough for EB3 ROW to become current?

i'm definitely assuming the backlog is getting cleared which again based on the number i see appear to be on its way to be cleared in the next 6 months or so.

am i missing something else?

Thanks

migo79,

Yes I think you are correct.

Once EB3-ROW becomes Current, then if demand is less than about 23-24k per FY, EB3-ROW should remain Current. ROW are those Countries other than China, India, Mexico and Philippines.

Increased demand in EB3-ROW would impact who benefited from any spare visa numbers, assuming it also results in a drop in EB2-ROW demand. Low EB3-ROW demand favours EB3-I, while high EB3-ROW demand (and therefore lower EB2-ROW demand) favours EB2-I.

It's good to have a discussion about EB3 and ROW.

[migo79]

Thank you Spec,
you are right there is little discussed about EB3-ROW even though it can be the key to a relief to some extent in EB3-I if it become current.


here is what i was trying to say:
it is currently takes 6 months to approve a PERM (no audit)
it takes also around 6 months to approve I-140.
so the number of currently eligible (waiters) to file for an I-485 should be at max the: June 2013 Priority Date.

i was checking the USCIS pending inventory history and it seems that EB3-ROW was plagued by the backlog of 2006,2007 and 2008 applications [man that was huge backlog they are working on!!!]

now that this backlog appear to be eliminated, IMO the ratio of pending applications seems to be equal of that for EB2 ROW.
in fact to get a very accurate number we have to look at the number of pending applications for EB2 for the same period.

for example the ratio of 2011/2012 EB2 filers appear to be equal to the very same EB3 that filed during this FY.

now i can imagine that EB3 ROW might be get current next year and in fact it should remain current or close to current for most of FY16 unless there are any surprises, but the PERM data currently available doesn't suggest there is any surprises.

Hope that become true and the whole EB3 gets some relief.

[Spectator]

migo79,

I wouldn't agree with your 50:50 EB2:EB3 split.

Currently, I would say it is at least 70:30 and the PWD data (which contains minimum education and experience data) tends to back that up.

I have no reason to believe that has changed. Unfortunately, there were errors in the Q2 PWD data released by DOL.

[qesehmk]

migo79,

I wouldn't agree with your 50:50 EB2:EB3 split.

Currently, I would say it is at least 70:30 and the PWD data (which contains minimum education and experience data) tends to back that up.

I have no reason to believe that has changed. Unfortunately, there were errors in the Q2 PWD data released by DOL.

I completely agree with this Spec. Very few people file in EB3 now. 70-30 sounds just about right.

[migo79]

Well,

I agree with you as well, i was just trying to be conservative.

but you are right, the ration can be easily 70% EB2 and 30% EB3 which is again good news for EB3 folks.

[krishn]

Migo79, earlier had attempted a guess work at eb3row inventory , if it helps you in anyways

here are some more numbers to consider,

year----------------------------------------- --2008 ---2009 ---2010 ---2011 ---2012 ---2013
PERM ROW----------------------------------- --30138 --19047 --15819 --17258 --19368 ---8589
eb2row actual approvals / 2.2 ---------------- --22467 --15047 --12214 --15081 --10889 --18243
set 20% for niw etc -------------------------- --17974 --12038 ---9771 --12065 ---8711 --14594


EB3Row Perm guesstimate (prior year - this year)---na- --18100 --9276 --3754 --8547 --4774

[migo79]

Thank you Krishn,

it is kind of amazing to see such low EB3 ROW demand, this definitely help.

in fact i was navigating more date and found out that last year DOS/USCIS wasted 9000 visa number for EB3 ROW.

currently USCIS is working on 4 years demand when they started to advance the priority dates starting Mar 2013

so from May 1st 2007 to 1st April 2011.

from your data this will be gustimated total of 31130 * 2 (counting derivatives +/-) = 62260
Number of Visa available should for previous FY and current FY (78000-9000) == 69000 visas.
so this can be well within current DOS cut off dates currently vs visas available.

of course all of the above is guestimates but based of the current available data, the margin of error should be very or fairly low unless each one applying has more than 3 dependents which i doubt.

i think if DOS haven't wasted these 9000 Visas EB3 ROW would've been current this September.

I understand that the DOS haven't moved the dates starting June 2014 because of quarterly limits, and also as Spec said, it might take the first quarter of 2015 quotas to eliminate the current load.

now what puzzle me guys and my question, does DOS has analysts that can do these calculations? specifically the PERM for EB2 and EB3 ROW is quite predictable since there are no noticeable porting happening so estimating the demand and visa numbers for EB ROW should be piece of cake with the data in hand.

or they just do the wait and see approach, move cut off dates and see what the demand is?

Thanks.

[Spectator]

Migo79,

Last year, EB3-ROW lost a theoretical 6.2k visas, if EB3-I had not received any Fall Across and EB3 had reached the full allocation. The apparent extra use by Philippines is due to the application of the overall 7% limit and is at the expense of the EB3-ROW allocation.

In reality, the systemic failure to reach the EB3 overall allocation (at the expense of EB3-ROW numbers) means EB3-ROW only "lost" the 4.6k extra visa that EB3-I received. That systemic loss is a different issue.

EB3-ROW might realistically have received 28.5k in FY2013. EB3-ROW might receive 28k in FY2014, for a total of 56.5k had demand not run out at the end of FY2013.

I would say that the previous movements have created a demand of about 60k to date. Had that reduced by 28.5k last year and the further 28k that might be received this year, then there might have been about the correct number of visas available to deal with the Cut Off Date movement to 01OCT12 that EB3-ROW reached.

I do not think that EB3-ROW could have become Current in FY2014. The Cut Off Date might have progressed a little further than the latest seen to date.

DOS are hamstrung by the unwillingness (or inability) of USCIS to share data on I-140 approvals. With that, DOS could significantly improve their forecasting. CO has made his frustration about this known on several occasions. DOS can only see the demand as USCIS approve the case and the demand pattern is subject to how quickly USCIS are processing cases.

I do believe DOS should have foreseen that the Cut Off Dates for EB3-ROW needed to be moved forward earlier to ensure that sufficient EB3-ROW cases were able to be approved in FY2013 and use the allocation available to EB3-ROW. I had been warning of that danger, with access to far less information, so I do not say this in hindsight.

[migo79]

wonderful Spec,

good work on numbers which match what is available

and for inter DOS/USCIS relations i really don't know what to say, we are talking about #1 country in technology, shame they will not be able to accurately share data between departments.

they must understand that in today's immigration systems, every single visa count

[Spectator]

wonderful Spec,

good work on numbers which match what is available

and for inter DOS/USCIS relations i really don't know what to say, we are talking about #1 country in technology, shame they will not be able to accurately share data between departments.

they must understand that in today's immigration systems, every single visa count

migo79,

I am only stating it as I see it. If you agree, then fine, but don't feel compelled to do so.

Most long term members know that I think EB3-ROW have been very shoddily treated over the years and should have become Current some time ago. EB3 has consistently failed to reach the full allocation and use by Philippines and Mexico over the nominal 7% limit has deprived EB3-ROW of tens of thousands of visas.

Unfortunately, the Visa Office is part of DOS and USCIS is part of DHS (and their equivalents in the past). There is great "rivalry" between these two government departments and always has been. Quite apart from the appalling IT infrastructure, I think that has as much to do with the present situation. I think it is true to say that USCIS (formerly INS) has long had a chip on their shoulder after DOS were awarded the power to administer the visa allocation system when the two departments competed to do so.

It was only after what happened in July 2007 that sufficient pressure was eventually put on USCIS to compile an Inventory of pending EB cases. DOS always has done so at the NVC. We only saw the first USCIS Inventory in August 2009. Even that was error ridden and the first decent one did not appear until December 2009. USCIS has a long and undistinguished history of hiding the true levels of the backlogs (often by redefining what is counted in the backlog) from everybody, including Congress.

Rant over. I'll put my tin foil hat back on.

[migo79]

this is the most compelled answer and it closely match the available data, I would say that the only variable would be the number of derivatives per applicant but i think that shouldn't be an issue for EB3.

as for USCIS and DOS, really i don't know what to say, the immigration system is suffering and any unnecessary visa waste as a result of any department being sloppy shouldn't be tolerated.

the immigration system is broken and the current immigration system cannot be crushed more because of broken department

[krishn]

this is the most compelled answer and it closely match the available data, I would say that the only variable would be the number of derivatives per applicant but i think that shouldn't be an issue for EB3.

as for USCIS and DOS, really i don't know what to say, the immigration system is suffering and any unnecessary visa waste as a result of any department being sloppy shouldn't be tolerated.

the immigration system is broken and the current immigration system cannot be crushed more because of broken department

yes the only variable is derivatives per applicant in this data and these numbers could be mostly will be higher than actuals.

year------------------------------------------------- --2008 ---2009 ---2010 ---2011 ---2012 ---2013
PERM ROW------------------------------------------- -30138 --19047 --15819 --17258 --19368 ---8589
eb2row actual approvals / 2.2 ------------------------ -22467 --15047 --12214 --15081 --10889 --18243
set 20% for niw etc --------------------------------- -17974 --12038 ---9771 --12065 ---8711 --14594
EB3Row Perm guesstimate (prior year - this year)------- ----na --18100 ---9276 ---3754 ---8547 ---4774

so my guess is (which is mostly not agreed by guru's) that if eb3-row dates are not moved ahead and made current or eb3I dates are not moved ahead , we might as well see eb3 visas unused this year fy14 as well for systemic(CO) inefficiencies.

[Spectator]

so my guess is (which is mostly not agreed by guru's) that if eb3-row dates are not moved ahead and made current or eb3I dates are not moved ahead , we might as well see eb3 visas unused this year fy14 as well for systemic(CO) inefficiencies.

krishn,

I partly agree and partly disagree with your statement.

I would not discount EB3 receiving less visas than their allocation again, purely because the effort to ensure they reach their allocation does not seem to have been a priority historically.

The greatest danger comes if CO is expecting EB3-P (whose COD is advancing rapidly) to use visa numbers which don't appear in the demand. That would be similar to what happened last year with ROW. That's not such a great risk as ROW, since 50-60% of EB3-P are CP and CO has good visibility on those numbers. In addition EB3 approvals seem in advance of where they need to be at this point in the year. Retrogression has had to be used to hold them in check.

Let's be clear, there is absolutely no need to move the EB3-I COD further to use up spare visas under any circumstances.

There are already sufficient preadjudicated EB3-ROW cases with a PD between April 2011 and October 2012 to use up any shortfall that might occur.

If CO thinks more approvals are needed, he only has to move the EB3-ROW COD forward appropriately from the current date of 01APR11. He does not need to make EB3-ROW Current. In fact, setting a Current date for EB3-ROW for August would have no effect on the number of EB3-ROW cases that could be approved this FY, given only 2 months would be left for processing. A large number of the current pending EB3-ROW cases will fall into FY2015 due to the Cut Off Dates.

Given CO has the option of moving EB3-ROW dates forward, he will not have to consider moving EB3-I dates forward as he did last year. Last year, that was the only option - this year it is not.

[migo79]

Hey Spec, guys

just thinking out loud, since we know to certain extents that the number of EB3 ROW PERMS is lower and there is no real expectations of high demand based on the number we currently have.

why don't the DOS make EB3 ROW current starting with the new FY15, it is currently taking at least 4 month to adjudicate the cases and by the time they reach Q2 they will have a better understanding of the real demand.

they moved EB3 ROW almost 5 years in just 1 year, why not moving 2 years just up front and get done with it instead of waiting till mid or end of the FY15 to do it?

they can use Q1 allocation to finish any remaining backlog up till OCT12 and by the time they enter Q2 they can work on the remaining cases.

based on the PERM data i'm crunching, there will be no way that EB3 ROW have demand exceeding or nearing 28000 visas from OCT12 until now.

on another plain words they need to receive ~1600 application per month on FY15 mto use the quota available on FY15 which is quite not possible for EB3 ROW

Thanks as always

[migo79]

to put this into more numbers contexts
according to PERM Checker, there are around

18739 Certified ROW PERMs 01OCT12 to 03Jul14 (this is certified so i'm excluding denied and withdrawn) and excluding (India,Mexico,China and Philippines)

if we apply a 70:30 rule for EB2 EB3 you get 5622 EB3 ROW PERM

let me add 1500 more as a margin of error and you get 7122EB3 ROW perms.

and that's indeed a very low number, EB3 only gets feed from PERM and nothing else so PERM is the only indicator here.

so 7122 ROW PERMS (expected filers) + 8000 ROW PERMS (expected carry over)
you get 15122 EB3 ROW perms total against 28000 Quota in FY15
only dependent is variable which for EB3 (mostly fresh or no experience) should not cause an issue.

Plus add that many of the above certified PERMS are not ready to file I485 yet since they have to wait for 140 approvals, so the expected number of filers expected to be much r somehow less than that.

btw: Cross checking the I485 Pending Inventory history was showing an heavily increased numbers for 2012/2013 EB2 ROW this will also stipulate your assumption Spec about the 70:30 EB2 EB3 filers

am i right here?

does really the number of EB3 ROW drops significantly which could be attributed to what economic slow down, EB3 porting and preference in filing EB2 for ROW?


IMHO that will be good news indeed for EB3 ROW since they likely get current as you suggested Spec
also good news for EB3I since they will likely get some decent spillover next year
and EB2I can be less stressed with slow porting from EB3I

so EB3 ROW current is good news for everyone.
what's your ideas?

[Spectator]

I see some problems with your assumptions.

a) You are not considering dependent approvals.

b) PERM is not the only source for EB3. Schedule A does not need a PERM certification. Difficult to say what the factor is.

c) You are mixing up I-485 carry through and PERM (probably due to (a)). Last year, the ratio across EB3 was 1 primary to 1.14 dependents.

d) You need to consider PERM to be certified and PERM still to be certified that may turn into I-485 approvals in the whole of FY2015.

e) The increase in PERM certified (and therefore lowered processing time) in the recent past (and if continued) will lead to higher numbers of I-485 in FY2015.

f) EB3-ROW is very unlikely to have 28k available in FY2015 due to a lower overall EB allocation and the usual extra use by Philippines within the overall 7% limit.

I do see EB3-ROW becoming Current in FY2015, but only relatively modest Fall Across to EB3-I. FY2016 will be when EB3-I see a decent amount of FA, assuming EB3-ROW numbers do not rise significantly.

[migo79]

Thank you Spec.

i'll account for these when i redo the calculation although i don't think it will change the consensus of EB3ROW being current next year.

however specifically for PERM processing I don't think that will be of any factors, if you look at 2010/2011/2012 PERMs the processing for an unaudited PERM was taking ~3 months.


IMHO the prime factors that advanced EB3 ROW to near current is:
a: low number of ROW applicants (~32% of yearly PERMS)
b: the majority of ROW applying in EB2 category.

but now to the other question, when should EB3ROW become current: beginning, Mid or end of FY15 ?

[imdeng]

EB-3P numbers are very interesting. Here is the movement for past few months:

Apr VB - 15JUN07
May VB - 01NOV07
Jun VB - 01JAN08
Jul VB - 01JAN09
Aug VB - 01JAN10

How bad/low the demand density must be post 07/07 for dates to fly off 2 years in last 2 VBs - that too at the end of the FY. This is not inventory generation - they are trying to not waste EB3P numbers for the year.

[krishn]

EB-3P numbers are very interesting. Here is the movement for past few months:

Apr VB - 15JUN07
May VB - 01NOV07
Jun VB - 01JAN08
Jul VB - 01JAN09
Aug VB - 01JAN10

How bad/low the demand density must be post 07/07 for dates to fly off 2 years in last 2 VBs - that too at the end of the FY. This is not inventory generation - they are trying to not waste EB3P numbers for the year.

Guru's, any chance of eb3-P and eb3-c spillover to eb3-I ?? or will they go to eb3-row??

[Spectator]

EB-3P numbers are very interesting. Here is the movement for past few months:

Apr VB - 15JUN07
May VB - 01NOV07
Jun VB - 01JAN08
Jul VB - 01JAN09
Aug VB - 01JAN10

How bad/low the demand density must be post 07/07 for dates to fly off 2 years in last 2 VBs - that too at the end of the FY. This is not inventory generation - they are trying to not waste EB3P numbers for the year.

imdeng,

I must admit i am a little surprised as well.

The NVC data from November 2013 showed 33k cases awaiting CP with PD dates up to near that date.

Previous data suggested that EB3-P had quite a high concentration of cases around 2007/2008. CP accounts for up to 50% of EB3-P cases.

Thinking out loud, I can only think of a few reasons why the COD has advanced so quickly.

a) Since a CP case is depedent on the original job offer remaining available, it's possible that has not been the case for a number of applicants. However, most nurses seem to go through agencies, who could keep the offer open.

b) Some applicants have just decided to abandon immigrating to the USA.

c) There is the possibility that all interview slots in Manila are full for the FY, limiting the number of immigrant visas that can be issued via CP. Philippines also has high FB immigration and 97% of those were CP last year. Immediate relative immigration is also quite high for Philippines.

I've seen other posts for different Countries where it has taken 3-5 months to get an interview appointment after becoming documentarily qualified.

If so, DOS would have to push the dates further to get the same numbers for AOS only applicants. Especially for RN, it can be difficult to be in the USA, since the qualification is assessed as an Associates degree and they are not qualified for an H1B visa.

As I said, the last point is very speculative. You are correct that there appears to be some desperation to use sufficient EB3 Philippines visas.

[Spectator]

Guru's, any chance of eb3-P and eb3-c spillover to eb3-I ?? or will they go to eb3-row??

There are sufficient preadjudicated EB3-ROW cases with a PD between 01APR11 and 01OCT12 to use any shortfall that might materialize.

CO only has to move the EB3-ROW COD forward to take up any slack, which means there will be no Fall Across to EB3-I this year.

[migo79]

Spec:

I re calculated the number of PERMS from perchecker.com and it still stand on 18739 for OCT12 to July3
I actually compared historical DOL statistic for previous FY to permchecker and it seems correctly reflecting what DOL released just an offset of +200 applications.

does it really that low number for ROW?
if we consider a 10% denial application on I140 this is 16865

if we apply the 70:30 rule this is 5060 EB3 ROW

is that really is or it is too good be true? does really the number of ROW standing yearly after 2008 on this low number?

also is there a way we can get the number of I140 approvals from USCIS per category and chargeability?