EB3 Predictions & Calculations

[Spectator]

could it be because mexico has low eb2 demand? may be uscis is applying 7% overall?

Yes, as with the Philippines, that is why Mexico can exceed the "notional" 7% limit within EB3. Neither Country exceeds the 7% overall within EB. Each year, this factor costs EB3-ROW 4.5k to 5k visa allocation.

Why does visa office claim invisibility to the applications at district office ?
As per my understanding whenever a case is processed completely, USCIS will request a visa number through IVAMS system (http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/109134.pdf) . This will notify the visa office that an application is requesting a visa number.

Why should the percentage of applications pending at District Office vs service centers be a concern to visa office ?

Your understanding is correct, but as you say, the case is only entered into IVAMS after the interview has been successfully concluded.

Only then is the case visible to the Visa Office.

But, there are thousands of cases at District Offices where the interview has not yet taken place. Since these are not in the IVAMS system, nor part of the USCIS Service Center Inventory, they are not visible to the Visa Office.

The Visa Office uses the number of cases they are aware of to set the Cut Off dates in the Visa Bulletin.

If the Visa Office suddenly becomes aware of a large number of cases which they didn't know about previously, then they might have to retrogress the Cut Off dates, or move them forward more slowly, since they would have more cases than visas available.

The supply of visas for the year is fixed. Every "invisible" case with a current PD that becomes apparent means that Cut Off dates will not advance as much as expected and that one case from the known demand will not be approved in the Fiscal Year.

[isantem]

Outlook for ROW
2011 Total Demand - 70K (of which 44K pertains to backlogged years)
2011 Total Availability - 25K
The date as of now is at 22 Jan 05. Expect a movement through Jun 2006 by Sep 2011.

Dear Friends!

Thank you very much for your efforts to clarify the future of EB immigrants.
I am EB3 ROW with a priority date of January 10 2009.
Based on your figures I don’t have any chances to get my greencard in this fiscal year or next one, but how about 2013 fiscal year? Is that a realistic hope for me?

Thank You Very Much!!!

[qesehmk]

Isantem

Welcome to the forum. Since the EB3ROW annual demand seems to equal supply (at least for now) .... 4 years from now seems a reasonable bet for you to get your GC. I hope you get it before that.

Dear Friends!

Thank you very much for your efforts to clarify the future of EB immigrants.
I am EB3 ROW with a priority date of January 10 2009.
Based on your figures I don’t have any chances to get my greencard in this fiscal year or next one, but how about 2013 fiscal year? Is that a realistic hope for me?

Thank You Very Much!!!

[isantem]

Isantem

Welcome to the forum. Since the EB3ROW annual demand seems to equal supply (at least for now) .... 4 years from now seems a reasonable bet for you to get your GC. I hope you get it before that.

Thank You for your quick reply. I am a little confused by fiscal year and calendar year, so just to confirm when you say 4 years, you mean fiscal year 2014? Is this a conservatice estimate or optimistic estimate?

Is the 70k backlog includes the application mid 2007 -to end of 2010 also?

Thank You!

[qesehmk]

That is correct - it is fiscal year 2014. What I mentioned is a realistic estimate not an optimistic one. You can actually get it much before. It all depends on what your country is. If I may what is your chargeability country?

Thank You for your quick reply. I am a little confused by fiscal year and calendar year, so just to confirm when you say 4 years, you mean fiscal year 2014? Is this a conservatice estimate or optimistic estimate?

Is the 70k backlog includes the application mid 2007 -to end of 2010 also?

Thank You!

[isantem]

That is correct - it is fiscal year 2014. What I mentioned is a realistic estimate not an optimistic one. You can actually get it much before. It all depends on what your country is. If I may what is your chargeability country?

Thank You!

...Romania.

[qesehmk]

Oh ... the land of Nadia.

I would imagine that Romania doesn't have a huge EB or FB demand and so you should get it within 4 years. (Its Philipines that is the worst retrogressed on EB3).

p.s. - One of my friends is from Romania and he got his through lottery (believe it or not). But tehn he had tremendous issues getting his wife (also a romanian) a green card. The wife is a doctor. USCIS apparently kept rejecting until one day when they finally said yes.

Thank You!

...Romania.

[isantem]

Oh ... the land of Nadia.

..and Hagi (soccer player)

I would imagine that Romania doesn't have a huge EB or FB demand and so you should get it within 4 years. (Its Philipines that is the worst retrogressed on EB3).

p.s. - One of my friends is from Romania and he got his through lottery (believe it or not). But tehn he had tremendous issues getting his wife (also a romanian) a green card. The wife is a doctor. USCIS apparently kept rejecting until one day when they finally said yes.

I also have friend how got they lottery green card when they was waiting for EB green card.
If I would know all this mess when I first got here in USA I would be back in Romania at this time.
And probably I should not say anything when I see friends from India being here for 15 years and NO green card, that is just unbelievable.

Thank You once more and lets hope something will change in D.C. for us to....

[qesehmk]

Yes. A lot of Indians (as well as chinese philipinos and mexicans and others) have been waiting for a loooooooooooooong time. That's why this forum is trying establish clarity so that people can plan their lives better.

Hopefully you will get yours much sooner. Good luck!!

..and Hagi (soccer player)
I also have friend how got they lottery green card when they was waiting for EB green card.
If I would know all this mess when I first got here in USA I would be back in Romania at this time.
And probably I should not say anything when I see friends from India being here for 15 years and NO green card, that is just unbelievable.

Thank You once more and lets hope something will change in D.C. for us to....

[jlreyp]

Hi there- is it possible for you to predict EB3-ROW with your model once demand data is published by DOS? For example the demand data for February 2011 was posted yesterday. Can you update your model based on that info?

[qesehmk]

jlreyp ...

yes. based on the inventory report published today .... I will update the model / top of the thread later tonight.

Welcome to the forum.

Hi there- is it possible for you to predict EB3-ROW with your model once demand data is published by DOS? For example the demand data for February 2011 was posted yesterday. Can you update your model based on that info?

[jlreyp]

thank you qesehmk. Would it be totally insane to hope that PD Aug16, 2005 EB3-ROW be current on June2011 VB?

[qesehmk]

You should get your GC by Sep 2011. I am 90% confident on that.

The reason I am not saying 100% confident is because in case of EB3 the NVC has almost equivalent or more backlog of cases. So its hard to understand the time horizon of NVC inventory. But since there are only 8-10K people ahead of you in 485 inventory, I would imagine you must receive it this year.

thank you qesehmk. Would it be totally insane to hope that PD Aug16, 2005 EB3-ROW be current on June2011 VB?

[Spectator]

jlreyp,

I am reasonably confident that you should be Current this FY, albeit for slightly different reasons.

The biggest danger I see is that there are substantially more DO cases to add to the Inventory with PDs earlier than your own.

Given that around 4k were added to the Inventory for the period March 2005 to August 2005 last time, I hope that indicates that most of the interviews for these dates have been finished. I believe there is still a reasonable buffer for further additions before your PD would not be Current. It also depends whether the VO used the full allocation available to them in Q1. If not, your chances are even higher.

Hopefully, when the next Inventory is published most additions will be complete and you can have an even higher confidence level.

Good luck.

PS To provide some context to my comments, I think it is unlikely that EB3-ROW will progress into 2006 in FY2011.

[qesehmk]

Spec

Thanks. Good observations.

My hesitation with EB3 predictions is more from NVC perspective than from DO perspective. The DO demand will slowly move over into 485 inventory reports. But the NVC demand will never be shown in the 485. Right?

jlreyp,

I am as equally confident as Q that you should be Current this FY, albeit for slightly different reasons.

The biggest danger I see is that there are substantially more DO cases to add to the Inventory with PDs earlier than your own.

Given that around 4k were added to the Inventory in the period March 2005 to August 2005 last time, I hope that indicates that most of the interviews for these dates have been finished. I believe there is still a buffer greater than that number for further additions before your PD would not be Current.

Hopefully, when the next Inventory is published most additions will be complete and you can have an even higher confidence level.

Good luck.

PS To provide some context to my comments, I think it is unlikely that EB3-ROW will progress into 2006 in FY2011.

[Spectator]

Spec

Thanks. Good observations.

My hesitation with EB3 predictions is more from NVC perspective than from DO perspective. The DO demand will slowly move over into 485 inventory reports. But the NVC demand will never be shown in the 485. Right?

Q,

My understanding is that the NVC (or CP) demand will never be shown as part of the USCIS Inventory Report. The DOS demand data only includes that number of NVC cases that are documentarily qualified.

As we have discussed previously, a very large number of the NVC cases probably lie after August 2007 or are PWMB. The majority are only I-140 approvals and do not yet represent applications anywhere close to Consular interview.

The reason I am not too concerned with this fact yet, is that CP processing has consistently represented around 15% of the total for EB3-ROW for several years.

There is going to be a point (if the NVC figures are accurate) when this % must increase, but I don't think it will for 2005 PD.

For instance, outside of ROW, I would speculate that good proportion of the large Philippines number represent nurses and care workers. Since there were large numbers of Schedule A approvals in FY2006 and a few in FY2007, I would speculate further that the bulk of the EB3 Philippines NVC cases are post 2006. Since Philippines already has 30%+ CP, at some point the Cut Off dates for EB3-P look likely to stall, but they haven't yet. In fact they still share the same Cut Off date as ROW at the moment.

I don't know how this would breakdown for ROW though, so your concern about CP cases is certainly justified. I just don't know when we might see that effect. Since it is likely to be several years before later PDs become Current, I imagine the number of cases that do not proceed further will be quite high, either because plans have changed or the lack of a job offer at the appropriate time.

My thoughts anyway.

As a PS There are certain categories of workers who qualify for EB3, but may not qualify for a non immigrant visa such as an H1B. In this case they have no choice but to CP. I have heard that this is a problem for nurses, because unless they have a Bachelors degree and the job requires it, they don't qualify. There used to be the H1-C visa which allowed up to 500 approvals per year for nurses to serve in disadvantaged areas. It sunsetted on December 20, 2009 and has not been extended, as far as I know.

[qesehmk]

As we have discussed previously, a very large number of the NVC cases probably lie after August 2007 or are PWMB. The majority are only I-140 approvals and do not yet represent applications anywhere close to Consular interview.

The reason I am not too concerned with this fact yet, is that CP processing has consistently represented around 15% of the total for EB3-ROW for several years.

There is going to be a point (if the NVC figures are accurate) when this % must increase, but I don't think it will for 2005 PD.

Agree. Thanks. You are right ... for 2005 PD the dates should progress relatively faster. As per CP % changing, I think it will not change. BEcause think this way ... the % in the past .. as much as it has indicated approval per year, it has also indicated ratio of applicants who prefer to file outside. So the % may still remain teh same.

However what's going to change is the rate at which EB3 progresses. In the past the vertical spillovers were beneficial for non-IC countries. Now Entire EB3 will continue to see ever growing backlogs and increasing and very unreasonable wait times. Same is true for FB. On the other hand we are seeing ridiculous movement in FB esp FB2-I. It actually might help if EB2 folks get their own GC and then file spouse under FB2. Or if USCIS automatically start considering spousal application as FB2.

[jlreyp]

thank you both spec & Q. Sorry, I know this sounds like something I should master by now, but I dont. This is all EB3-ROW related. I want to get a better understanding of the source of the numbers that affect GC PDs. Here are my questions:
1. When I look at the USCIS website; there is a link to a pdf doc with the I-485 Employment Based Inventory statistics (jan 5, 2011), what do these numbers represent?
2. When I look at the travel.stage.gov website, there is another pdf doc titled Demand Data Used in the Determination of the February 2011 Employment Preference Cut-Off Dates. What do these numbers represent?
3. What is the diference b/w numbers from Q1 and Q2?
4. What makes these numbers change all the time?

[qesehmk]

jlreyp ..

all of these are good questions ... please post them in FAQs and I will answer them there for everybody's benefit.

thanks
Q

thank you both spec & Q. Sorry, I know this sounds like something I should master by now, but I dont. This is all EB3-ROW related. I want to get a better understanding of the source of the numbers that affect GC PDs. Here are my questions:
1. When I look at the USCIS website; there is a link to a pdf doc with the I-485 Employment Based Inventory statistics (jan 5, 2011), what do these numbers represent?
2. When I look at the travel.stage.gov website, there is another pdf doc titled Demand Data Used in the Determination of the February 2011 Employment Preference Cut-Off Dates. What do these numbers represent?
3. What is the diference b/w numbers from Q1 and Q2?
4. What makes these numbers change all the time?

[gcseek]

Hi Q, Teddy, Spec and others,

I have been following your posts in IV and here also and amazed at the patience and the in depth research, to the point of addiction along with coffee. I am one of the few who have come in 1998 and waiting for GC (PD is 4/15/2002). In the meantime, weathered job loss, family tragedies and kid going to college in the coming year etc like some of us in this. So, I also have personal interest in the same.

I would request to put your wealth of knowledge in more detail in to the tables you have created, thereby avoid replying many times to the new persons and very old persons (like me, started having memory loss, crossed 50 already). For example, if you can give more rows stating how FA moved within their categories. Same for FD movement, porting etc. It will make the tables bigger, but easier to understand and also to manipulate the numbers by plugging in the values.

Also, I have the following base level questions, which can be added to FAQs, if you wish.

1. For a country (say Mexico), if EB4 is current and has spare visa's will it go to
a) EB4 other countries (I think FA) and then to EB1 (Mexico or general EB1) or
b) Family categories directly to satisfy 7%?
2. If Mexico has 200, Phillipines has 300 spare visas, India has 5000 and China has 3000 pending in a single category, how do India and China receive those?
3. If Mexico has 2000, Phillipines has 3000 spare visas, India has 500 and China has 300 pending in the same category, how many MX and PH have after FA?

They are just examples, since I am not good at explaining without numbers. Please rephrase the questions, if need be and update the same in FAQ with your answers.

Thanks.

Siva

[qesehmk]

Siva, its tough to go through what you have gone through. The travesty is that you just missed the 2004 clearance sale since probably you hadn't filed 485 by then. But hopefully you will get it before your kids age out.

I am yet to update the EB3. But since there doesn't seem a lot of interest in EB3, I am being lazy in updating it. But will do within a week I promise with your suggestions.

Regarding your question EB4 will first do a FA and then a FD to EB1. EB4 in theory shouldn't give visas to FB4 or FB in general. When EB or FB give visas to each other, they do it at the end of the year. However within year 7% rule is applied by utilizing existing visas within a category. That's what allows S Korea to utilize more EB2 than their quota when significant EB2IC backlog is present.

Your Q. no 2/3 are not quite clear. Please feel free to put them in FAQs section. But in general FA or FD are always allocated to whoever has olded PD where FA or FD is received.

Hi Q, Teddy, Spec and others,

I have been following your posts in IV and here also and amazed at the patience and the in depth research, to the point of addiction along with coffee. I am one of the few who have come in 1998 and waiting for GC (PD is 4/15/2002). In the meantime, weathered job loss, family tragedies and kid going to college in the coming year etc like some of us in this. So, I also have personal interest in the same.

I would request to put your wealth of knowledge in more detail in to the tables you have created, thereby avoid replying many times to the new persons and very old persons (like me, started having memory loss, crossed 50 already). For example, if you can give more rows stating how FA moved within their categories. Same for FD movement, porting etc. It will make the tables bigger, but easier to understand and also to manipulate the numbers by plugging in the values.

Also, I have the following base level questions, which can be added to FAQs, if you wish.

1. For a country (say Mexico), if EB4 is current and has spare visa's will it go to
a) EB4 other countries (I think FA) and then to EB1 (Mexico or general EB1) or
b) Family categories directly to satisfy 7%?
2. If Mexico has 200, Phillipines has 300 spare visas, India has 5000 and China has 3000 pending in a single category, how do India and China receive those?
3. If Mexico has 2000, Phillipines has 3000 spare visas, India has 500 and China has 300 pending in the same category, how many MX and PH have after FA?

They are just examples, since I am not good at explaining without numbers. Please rephrase the questions, if need be and update the same in FAQ with your answers.

Thanks.

Siva

[gcseek]

Q, Thanks for your reply. I appreciate that.

I missed out the clearance sale, because the Labor officer in my state took short of 4 years to clear labor, after my company took 13 months to file (I gave them in May 2001). I think that I might get it at the end of this year.

1. My request for more information in the tables is for EB2 also. I am sure, a lot of you, have all the figures in your head already. But, it will be clearer with more details. Thanks for considering.
2. You answered the point 2, ie. it goes to the visas with earliest PD irrespective of country. Thanks.
3. I will try to be more clear on point 3. I will put it in FAQ?

Thanks to you all for being there for us.

[Spectator]

Hi Q, Teddy, Spec and others,

I have been following your posts in IV and here also and amazed at the patience and the in depth research, to the point of addiction along with coffee. I am one of the few who have come in 1998 and waiting for GC (PD is 4/15/2002). In the meantime, weathered job loss, family tragedies and kid going to college in the coming year etc like some of us in this. So, I also have personal interest in the same.

I would request to put your wealth of knowledge in more detail in to the tables you have created, thereby avoid replying many times to the new persons and very old persons (like me, started having memory loss, crossed 50 already). For example, if you can give more rows stating how FA moved within their categories. Same for FD movement, porting etc. It will make the tables bigger, but easier to understand and also to manipulate the numbers by plugging in the values.

Also, I have the following base level questions, which can be added to FAQs, if you wish.

1. For a country (say Mexico), if EB4 is current and has spare visa's will it go to
a) EB4 other countries (I think FA) and then to EB1 (Mexico or general EB1) or
b) Family categories directly to satisfy 7%?
2. If Mexico has 200, Phillipines has 300 spare visas, India has 5000 and China has 3000 pending in a single category, how do India and China receive those?
3. If Mexico has 2000, Phillipines has 3000 spare visas, India has 500 and China has 300 pending in the same category, how many MX and PH have after FA?

They are just examples, since I am not good at explaining without numbers. Please rephrase the questions, if need be and update the same in FAQ with your answers.

Thanks.

Siva

Siva,

I'll have a go at Q3. If I have misinterpreted incorrectly, then say so and we can try to answer the question you meant.

I am going to use 3,000 as the 7% number.

If Mexico had 2,000 spare visas, they must have used 1,000 of the 3,000 limit.
If Philippines had 3,000 spare visas, they must have used zero visas.

Therefore FA for Mexico would be +2000 and they would be shown to have used 1,000 visas.
FA for Philippines would be +3,000 and they would be shown to use zero visas.

China & India would be shown to use the visas in FA. In your example, China FA would be -300 and India FA would be -500.

The other 1,200 visas unused by FA are shown in Q's chart as FA Given.

I hope I have got that correct.

Here's an example from the current chart :

EB1
CHINA (3,196) - Spare visas required by EB1 China.
INDIA (3,848) - Spare visas required by EB1 India.
Mexico 952 - Spare visas given by EB1-M.
Phillipines 2,395 - Spare visas given by EB1-P.
ROW 4,247 - Spare visas given by EB1-ROW.

FA Recvd 7,594 - The sum of EB1-M, P & ROW.
FA Given 550 - The overall effect of FA in EB1 - FA Received minus Spare Visas utilized. This falls down to EB2.
FD Recvd 8,538 - Visas received from EB4/5.
Spare Visas Utilized 7,044 - Spare visas used within EB1. In this case the sum of EB1 China & India, since they were the only Countries needing extra visas.

Since none of the visas received by EB1 from EB4/5 were used (FA Received > Spare Visas Utilized), the total FD received by EB2 is 8,538 + 550 = 9,088.

To calculate how many visas a Country has used, you need to add the figure in "485Inv - Oct 10" to that in "2011 Approvable New Demand".

As an example, the current chart has 336 & 1,515 respectively for EB1-Mexico, so the total approvals in FY2011 for EB1-M would be 1,851.

I hope I interpreted your question correctly.


Q, Please feel free to edit this post if I have got it wrong. You know your chart better than anyone.

[qesehmk]

Spec

Thanks. Now I understand that Siva's Question was about how to interpret the spreadsheet image. I will improve it in next round. Got it thanks.

p.s. - -ve numbers below indicate unsatisfied demand. They don't necessarily say that the country will consumer those many visas. You 've got that absolutely right.

Siva,

I'll have a go at Q3. If I have misinterpreted incorrectly, then say so and we can try to answer the question you meant.

I am going to use 3,000 as the 7% number.

If Mexico had 2,000 spare visas, they must have used 1,000 of the 3,000 limit.
If Philippines had 3,000 spare visas, they must have used zero visas.

Therefore FA for Mexico would be +2000 and they would be shown to have used 1,000 visas.
FA for Philippines would be zero and they would be shown to use zero visas.

China & India would be shown to use the visas in FA. In your example, China FA would be -300 and India FA would be -500.

The other 1,200 visas unused by FA are shown in Q's chart as FA Given.

I hope I have got that correct.

Here's an example from the current chart :

EB1
CHINA (3,196) - Spare visas required by EB1 China
INDIA (3,848) - Spare visas required by EB1 India
Mexico 952 - Spare visas given by EB1-M
Phillipines 2,395 - Spare visas given by EB1-P
ROW 4,247 - Spare visas given by EB1-ROW

FA Recvd 7,594 - The sum of EB1-M, P & ROW
FA Given 550 - The overall effect of FA in EB1 - FA Received minus Spare Visas utilized. This falls down to EB2
FD Recvd 8,538 - Visas received from EB4/5
Spare Visas Utilized 7,044 - Spare visas used within EB1. In this case the sum of EB1 China & India, since they were the only Countries needing extra visas

Since none of the visas received by EB1 from EB4/5 were used (FA Received > Spare Visas Utilized), the total FD received by EB2 is 8,538 + 550 = 9,088.

To calculate how many visas a Country has used, you need to add the figure in "485Inv - Oct 10" to that in "2011 Approvable New Demand".

As an example, the current chart has 336 & 1,515 respectively for EB1-Mexico, so the total approvals in FY2011 for EB1-M would be 1,851.

I hope I interpreted your question correctly


Q, Please feel free to edit this post if I have got it wrong. You know your chart better than anyone.

[gcseek]

Spec, Q,

Thanks. My doubts in this are cleared. Just one thing about your example. I think FA for Phillipines will be 3000 in the example not 0. Since, the doubts are cleared it does not matter.

So, since SPILLOVER goes to the most retrogressed country, I assume that SOFAD will be applied to India's porting cases prior to May 2006. Also, since India's cut off date is earlier than China's, most of the remaining spill over will go to India. Right?

If so, is it OK to show SOFAD for China and India separately? This question is a candidate for both EB3 and EB2, I think.

Thanks.

Siva,

I'll have a go at Q3. If I have misinterpreted incorrectly, then say so and we can try to answer the question you meant.

I am going to use 3,000 as the 7% number.

If Mexico had 2,000 spare visas, they must have used 1,000 of the 3,000 limit.
If Philippines had 3,000 spare visas, they must have used zero visas.

Therefore FA for Mexico would be +2000 and they would be shown to have used 1,000 visas.
FA for Philippines would be zero and they would be shown to use zero visas.

China & India would be shown to use the visas in FA. In your example, China FA would be -300 and India FA would be -500.

The other 1,200 visas unused by FA are shown in Q's chart as FA Given.

I hope I have got that correct.

Here's an example from the current chart :

EB1
CHINA (3,196) - Spare visas required by EB1 China.
INDIA (3,848) - Spare visas required by EB1 India.
Mexico 952 - Spare visas given by EB1-M.
Phillipines 2,395 - Spare visas given by EB1-P.
ROW 4,247 - Spare visas given by EB1-ROW.

FA Recvd 7,594 - The sum of EB1-M, P & ROW.
FA Given 550 - The overall effect of FA in EB1 - FA Received minus Spare Visas utilized. This falls down to EB2.
FD Recvd 8,538 - Visas received from EB4/5.
Spare Visas Utilized 7,044 - Spare visas used within EB1. In this case the sum of EB1 China & India, since they were the only Countries needing extra visas.

Since none of the visas received by EB1 from EB4/5 were used (FA Received > Spare Visas Utilized), the total FD received by EB2 is 8,538 + 550 = 9,088.

To calculate how many visas a Country has used, you need to add the figure in "485Inv - Oct 10" to that in "2011 Approvable New Demand".

As an example, the current chart has 336 & 1,515 respectively for EB1-Mexico, so the total approvals in FY2011 for EB1-M would be 1,851.

I hope I interpreted your question correctly.


Q, Please feel free to edit this post if I have got it wrong. You know your chart better than anyone.