EB3 Predictions & Calculations

[kabhishek]

I request all immigrant community to sign this petition and ask all your friends and family members
to sign and send emails to congress and President.

http://www.petition2congress.com/477...grants-in-usa/

Thanks

[isantem]

If 6 weeks per month were seen, that would move the Cut Off Date to the end of January 2006.

However, last year, the dates moved very quickly at the end of the year. It is not impossible that the dates might move a little further if the hidden demand either reduces or has been miscalculated.

I think that is more a hope than the probable reality - I expect EB3-ROW to finish the year with Cut Off Dates of late 2005.

No comment!

Thank you Spectator, Venni, Teddy and all!
Thanks for the conservative predictions that are amazingly accurate!
Special thanks to qesehmk, because of his effort we have this discussion platform!

Thank You!

[immitime]

This is my first post here, EB-3 India and China will ever get the spillover??? I think this category will be always retrogressed.

Even EB-2 India and China are current, then the spillover will go to EB-3ROW is it not?

The spillover should be kept as pre 2008, like The present spill over to EB-2 should be equally divided into EB2 & EB-3 Iand C

Otherwise lot of families who cannot port will never get their GC.

Any Thoughts?

And any hope for HR 2161 (Rep Zen Lofgren's bill to pass this Year?

[qesehmk]

The brutal truth is if things keep going as they are ... even EB2IC is doomed. EB3IC will NEVER see any spillover.
The only hope for EB3IC is immigration reform.
Sorry but - the situation is so hopeless - we would be illserving EB3IC if we gave you even 1% hope.

p.s. - The only people in EB3IC who shouldn't lose hope are the ones who are within 6-9 months of the current date because they will get GC within realistic time horizon i.e 1-4 years. Everybody else is at the mercy of denials, portings, people returning back to their home countries, duplicate EB3 applications etc to reduce the backlog more than quota. And we did see that kind of movement by a couple of thousand cases. Beyond that .... situation is utterly hopeless.

This is my first post here, EB-3 India and China will ever get the spillover??? I think this category will be always retrogressed.

Even EB-2 India and China are current, then the spillover will go to EB-3ROW is it not?

The spillover should be kept as pre 2008, like The present spill over to EB-2 should be equally divided into EB2 & EB-3 Iand C

Otherwise lot of families who cannot port will never get their GC.

Any Thoughts?

And any hope for HR 2161 (Rep Zen Lofgren's bill to pass this Year?

[immitime]

Q Thanks for the clarification,

But is it not spillover shoud be like pre 2008? Otherwise the spillover will only go to one cateogry. I think with the current spillover USCIS no longer uses the 7% country cap? correct me if my understanding is wrong.

BEFORE:
Unused EB1 => EB2, based upon PD, regardless of nationality/chargeability. HOWEVER, per-country limit was still in place; so, when a certain country has reached its 7% ceiling, it would no longer be eligible to receive any => Any unused EB2 => EB3, based upon PD, regardless of nationality/chargeability. HOWEVER, per-country limit was still in place; so, when a certain country has reached its 7% ceiling, it would no longer be eligible to receive any.

AFTER:
Unused EB1 => EB2, based upon PD, regardless of nationality/chargeability. HOWEVER, per-country limit has been DISREGARDED; so, even though a certain country has reached its 7% ceiling, it will KEEP ON receiving more until either the leftover EB1 quotas dry out or EB2 is current => Any unused EB2 => EB3, based upon PD, regardless of nationality/chargeability. HOWEVER, per-country limit has been, again, DISREGARDED; so, even though a certain country has reached its 7% ceiling, it will KEEP ON receiving more until either the leftover EB2 quotas dry out or EB2 is current.

The key, if my understanding is correct, is that USCIS no longer enforce the 7% per-country cap. These additional visas, which would have flown down to EB3 according to the existing rule*, are being re-directed to EB2, and essentially, EB2I in particular.

[qesehmk]

immitime - sorry i missed your question for quite some time it seems.

i think what changed was the interpretation of spillover.

Any spillover (vertical or horizontal) always disregarded country cap. But vertical spillover meant EB3 ROW gained all the unused EB2ROW and EB2ROW gained all EB1ROW unused.

USCIS was wrongly interpreting spillovers as vertical. That was chanllenged in court and USCIS was directed to change to horizontal spillover. That would meant spillover will first be utilized within category before it would spillover to other category.

Q Thanks for the clarification,

But is it not spillover shoud be like pre 2008? Otherwise the spillover will only go to one cateogry. I think with the current spillover USCIS no longer uses the 7% country cap? correct me if my understanding is wrong.

BEFORE:
Unused EB1 => EB2, based upon PD, regardless of nationality/chargeability. HOWEVER, per-country limit was still in place; so, when a certain country has reached its 7% ceiling, it would no longer be eligible to receive any => Any unused EB2 => EB3, based upon PD, regardless of nationality/chargeability. HOWEVER, per-country limit was still in place; so, when a certain country has reached its 7% ceiling, it would no longer be eligible to receive any.

AFTER:
Unused EB1 => EB2, based upon PD, regardless of nationality/chargeability. HOWEVER, per-country limit has been DISREGARDED; so, even though a certain country has reached its 7% ceiling, it will KEEP ON receiving more until either the leftover EB1 quotas dry out or EB2 is current => Any unused EB2 => EB3, based upon PD, regardless of nationality/chargeability. HOWEVER, per-country limit has been, again, DISREGARDED; so, even though a certain country has reached its 7% ceiling, it will KEEP ON receiving more until either the leftover EB2 quotas dry out or EB2 is current.

The key, if my understanding is correct, is that USCIS no longer enforce the 7% per-country cap. These additional visas, which would have flown down to EB3 according to the existing rule*, are being re-directed to EB2, and essentially, EB2I in particular.

[amichael]

EB3 ROW priority date of 8/3/06. How much longer is my wait?
MANY THANKS!!

[kiran_july_2004]

Hello,

First of all, I would like to appreciate the Guru, Qesehmk - Q and all others who have spent lot of time analyzing information and providing most reasonable expectations/predictions.

My priority date is 07/09/2004 in EB3 category and am a hopeful candidate in this category looking for some ray of light...

The question I have here for you all is, with the HR.3012 making through it's way to senate, can some body share their thoughts regarding when it will get to the house and then to senate and get passed. Based on that, how much time would it still require to get my 485 start processing. I am not so (extremely) desperate but would allow me to setup some intermediate expectations and start looking forward for it.

Thanks in advance... Kiran.

[qesehmk]

If your case is clear then it should be less than 12 months. May be six months.

EB3 ROW priority date of 8/3/06. How much longer is my wait?
MANY THANKS!!

Kiran there is a separate thread under advocacy. Pedro and other people can help answer this better there.

Hello,

First of all, I would like to appreciate the Guru, Qesehmk - Q and all others who have spent lot of time analyzing information and providing most reasonable expectations/predictions.

My priority date is 07/09/2004 in EB3 category and am a hopeful candidate in this category looking for some ray of light...

The question I have here for you all is, with the HR.3012 making through it's way to senate, can some body share their thoughts regarding when it will get to the house and then to senate and get passed. Based on that, how much time would it still require to get my 485 start processing. I am not so (extremely) desperate but would allow me to setup some intermediate expectations and start looking forward for it.

Thanks in advance... Kiran.

[IS81IS81]

Does anybody know whether all 2800 visas are consumed for EB3? If not, why EB3 dates are moving one week every month?

[self.coach]

Why do you say EB2IC is doomed?

The brutal truth is if things keep going as they are ... even EB2IC is doomed. EB3IC will NEVER see any spillover.
The only hope for EB3IC is immigration reform.
Sorry but - the situation is so hopeless - we would be illserving EB3IC if we gave you even 1% hope.

p.s. - The only people in EB3IC who shouldn't lose hope are the ones who are within 6-9 months of the current date because they will get GC within realistic time horizon i.e 1-4 years. Everybody else is at the mercy of denials, portings, people returning back to their home countries, duplicate EB3 applications etc to reduce the backlog more than quota. And we did see that kind of movement by a couple of thousand cases. Beyond that .... situation is utterly hopeless.

[qesehmk]

coach, I was talking about long term secular trend. The long term secular trend for EB2 category (if nothing changes other than economy) is that the demand is growing bigger and bigger.

EB1 is nearly utilizing its full capacity and those people will start applying in EB2 who can't nearly qualify. Then EB3 people will hardly have choice than apply in EB2. This is true for ROW as well. We are already seeing - people do not file in EB3 a smuch as they used to.

So what/s going on is a reflection of the fact that the overall supply is less than demand. And this mismatch is fundamental in nature i.e. not a one time thing. So as long as there is fundamental mismatch - EB2 and EB3 both are doomed in the long run.

Today what is helping EB2 is the fact that economy is doing terrible. So EB2IC will move fast in the next few years.

But from long term perspective HR3012 is such an important thing to work on - not just for EB3 but for EB2 as well.

Why do you say EB2IC is doomed?

[Spectator]

Does anybody know whether all 2800 visas are consumed for EB3? If not, why EB3 dates are moving one week every month?

IS81IS81,

No, all 2,803 visas are not consumed yet.

If you look at the figures, it is easy to see why EB3-I is only moving at about one week per VB.

The Demand Data showed 4,900 documentarily qualified cases at the beginning of the FY for CY2002.

Over the 5.75 months left for CY2002 (July 8 to December 31), this averages to 850 cases per month, but in truth the figure is probably higher than that (possibly 1,000 per month), or older cases are still becoming ready for adjudication.

In each of the first 3 quarters, a maximum of 27% of the total available visas can be used in each quarter. Pro-rated that works out as about 250 visas per month.

If there are 1,000 applicants per month and only 250 visa available, then the dates will only move forward at about 0.25 month, or 1 week per VB.

EB3-I with Priority Dates in 2002 and 2003 do not appear to be Porting in large numbers, so this effect gives little help to people with those PD.

[qesehmk]

Do you think that H1B denial trend is a product of current economic conditions? The same with "new incoming demand" as well. That itself is product of current economic conditions.

I think if the H1B denial trend in India continues, EB2-I will correct itself long term.

Also, aren't a lot of numbers from the PERM data are accounted by EB3 --> EB2 upgrade? The actual "new incoming" demand may not be as severe as we think.

EB1 is a problem though, and as long as they do not make EB1C go through the LC process, I think it will continue to be a problem.

[qesehmk]

I would agree that this is an important factor in current situation where bad economy and anti-immigration sentiment create the perfect storm for EB immigrants. However even in bad economy - 110K H1Bs were issued in 2010 including normal cap, US masters & non-profit ones.

So if economy bounces back I am very confident that the demand will come back roaring. As such I wouldn't call any such scrutiny a secular trend.

I personally think the H1B denials are a byproduct of the large scale H1B abuse between 2005-2009. I can cite in my personal experience many cases of forgeries in obtaining the H1Bs. The evidence is out there. The USCIS will be hard pressed not to deny cases that are not crystal clear. Crystal clear cases require a US degree and a full time job in a US corporation.

I have seen some threads on trackitt indicating people sitting with 221Gs in India and have become current (especially in the Jan bulletin). In some cases, the dependents are stuck too (I never thought H4 could be denied...but guess not). Yes, it sucks to be in that situation, but this is more of a norm than a temporary thing. It will result in demand trend from EBx-I changing substantially in future.

[amichael]

[QUOTE=qesehmk;14437]If your case is clear then it should be less than 12 months. May be six months.

qesehmk, can you please explain what you mean by "if your case is clear?" (Please excuse my ignorance...) And can you perhaps provide an updated prediction? (EB3 ROW; PD = 8/3/06) THANKS!

[qesehmk]

amichael, i haven't updated EB3 in a while. As per EB3ROW, for Aug 2006, expect the dates to be current in Sep 2012.

What I meant by "Clear Case" is a straightforward case with no complications, no transgressions or crime, good company - good job, availability of all documents. etc.

If your case is clear then it should be less than 12 months. May be six months.

qesehmk, can you please explain what you mean by "if your case is clear?" (Please excuse my ignorance...) And can you perhaps provide an updated prediction? (EB3 ROW; PD = 8/3/06) THANKS!

[isantem]

Spectator,

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...mp-Philippines

I was looking on the PERM data that you published. Let me tell you that is an amazing job, thank you so much for all your efforts. You are making our life much easier.

I have two question. This numbers are including EB-2 and EB-3, is that primary applicant only or the family members? Where can I found how many EB2 has been approved to determine EB-3?

Thank YOU!

Have a great weeekend.

[kd2008]

I had a quick question about EB3-ROW.

Spec and others, do you think once EB3-ROW gets past the 2007 dates, it may move rapidly? - as there were fewer EB3 PERMS post-2007 to begin with and quite a few of them have even ported to EB2.

In just sheer numbers, how many applicants can we expect for EB3?

Ignore HR 3012 and its effects as it is not a law now & nor expected to be one any time soon.

[Spectator]

Spectator,

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...mp-Philippines

I was looking on the PERM data that you published. Let me tell you that is an amazing job, thank you so much for all your efforts. You are making our life much easier.

I have two question. This numbers are including EB-2 and EB-3, is that primary applicant only or the family members? Where can I found how many EB2 has been approved to determine EB-3?

Thank YOU!

Have a great weeekend.

isantem,

Thank you for the compliment. It is always nice to know that the effort is appreciated.

By definition, the PERM is only submitted for the Primary applicant, so the numbers do not include Dependents.

The second question is the $64k question!

The best you can do is make some assumptions. These have been discussed extensively in previous posts.

Also bear in mind that a PERM is not required for all EB2 and EB3 I-140 cases.

EB2-NIW does not need a PERM, nor any Schedule A cases submitted in either Category.

An extreme example of this would be EB3-Philippines, where the vast majority of EB3 applications are for Nurses and Physical Therapists, who cannot qualify for an H1B visa and must wait in the Philippines for Consular Processing.

This is reflected in the fact that NVC had 43k EB3-Philippines cases (including Dependents where noted in the approved I-140) awaiting Consular Processing as of November 1, 2011. That represents virtually 50% of the EB3 numbers at NVC.

I had a quick question about EB3-ROW.

Spec and others, do you think once EB3-ROW gets past the 2007 dates, it may move rapidly? - as there were fewer EB3 PERMS post-2007 to begin with and quite a few of them have even ported to EB2.

In just sheer numbers, how many applicants can we expect for EB3?

Ignore HR 3012 and its effects as it is not a law now & nor expected to be one any time soon.

kd,

My personal opinion is that EB3 numbers for Countries other than IC will remain high through 2008. The overall numbers don't drop significantly until 2009 onwards.

I haven't seen any data to support whether EB3-non IC PERM applications dropped significantly from as early as 2008 or not. I suspect it is a bit later than that because it took some time for the full impact to be apparent and the effects of the recession didn't allow the opportunity to push for an EB2 PERM.

[isantem]

Spec, Q and other gurus

When EB2I reached July 2007 in October 2011 CO took the followings steps:

November 2011 - 01Nov2007 - 4 months movement - demand data 1,600
December 2011 - 15Mar2008 - 4.5 months movement - demand data 150
January 2012 - 01Jan2009 - 9.5 months movement - demand data not released
February 2012 - 01Jan2010 - 12 months movement - demand data 102
March 2012 - 01May2010 - 4 months movement - demand data 55
April 2012 - 01May2010 - 0 months movement - demand data 20
May 2012 - 15Aug2017 - 33 months retrogression - demand data not released
June 2012 - U - NA - demand data 12,650

When EB3 ROW got close to July 2007 in April 2013 CO took the following steps:
May 2013 - 01Dec2007 - 6 months movement - demand data around 1,700
June 2013 - 01 Sep2008 - 9 months movement - demand data around 450
July 2013 - ######### - ? months movement
August 2013 - ######### - ? months movement


Base on this numbers its looks like it took a couple of goods months to the documentary qualified reach and pass the monthly allocation in EB2I case. (and EB2C)
However I understand that this 2 are two different stories. EB2IC had a lot of spillover/fall down that kicked in from EB4, EB5, EB1 and EB2ROW.
In EBROW case is just the monthly allocation of 3,163 so probably they will reach and pass the monthly allocation limit much sooner not like EB2IC last year.
I would think (and hope) that EB3 ROW will move forward in July and stop in August and retrogress maybe in September 2013.
What you think the chance is the above will be true?

Is a big chance that I will be current in July VB (PD Jan 2009). My wife and daughter are back in my home country visiting the family and I was planning to join them for my sister wedding in August and come back in mid August.
What would you do if you would be in my situation?
1. Cancel everything and fly the family back and file for I-485.
2. Risk it and hope August will be current also
3. (the most expensive) Fly back the family in July, file for I-485 (+ EAD and AP) and go back in August. However I am not sure how would the travel outside of country affect the I485 (EAD + AP) application...etc.

I appreciate your time reading the above, any response will be appreciated.

Thank You

[edisonguy]

Based on the demand, I know 21000 known demand before me. But just a quick question, is it possible for the dates to move to Feb 2009 this year for EB2I ? Is really the EB1C in peak ?

[edisonguy]

Is your case porting ? Curious on why did not file I485 last year ?

Spec, Q and other gurus

When EB2I reached July 2007 in October 2011 CO took the followings steps:

November 2011 - 01Nov2007 - 4 months movement - demand data 1,600
December 2011 - 15Mar2008 - 4.5 months movement - demand data 150
January 2012 - 01Jan2009 - 9.5 months movement - demand data not released
February 2012 - 01Jan2010 - 12 months movement - demand data 102
March 2012 - 01May2010 - 4 months movement - demand data 55
April 2012 - 01May2010 - 0 months movement - demand data 20
May 2012 - 15Aug2017 - 33 months retrogression - demand data not released
June 2012 - U - NA - demand data 12,650

When EB3 ROW got close to July 2007 in April 2013 CO took the following steps:
May 2013 - 01Dec2007 - 6 months movement - demand data around 1,700
June 2013 - 01 Sep2008 - 9 months movement - demand data around 450
July 2013 - ######### - ? months movement
August 2013 - ######### - ? months movement


Base on this numbers its looks like it took a couple of goods months to the documentary qualified reach and pass the monthly allocation in EB2I case. (and EB2C)
However I understand that this 2 are two different stories. EB2IC had a lot of spillover/fall down that kicked in from EB4, EB5, EB1 and EB2ROW.
In EBROW case is just the monthly allocation of 3,163 so probably they will reach and pass the monthly allocation limit much sooner not like EB2IC last year.
I would think (and hope) that EB3 ROW will move forward in July and stop in August and retrogress maybe in September 2013.
What you think the chance is the above will be true?

Is a big chance that I will be current in July VB (PD Jan 2009). My wife and daughter are back in my home country visiting the family and I was planning to join them for my sister wedding in August and come back in mid August.
What would you do if you would be in my situation?
1. Cancel everything and fly the family back and file for I-485.
2. Risk it and hope August will be current also
3. (the most expensive) Fly back the family in July, file for I-485 (+ EAD and AP) and go back in August. However I am not sure how would the travel outside of country affect the I485 (EAD + AP) application...etc.

I appreciate your time reading the above, any response will be appreciated.

Thank You

[qesehmk]

isantem - EB3ROW allocation is 72% of 40K + 72% of extra FB visas this year ~4K. This comes to about 33K this year.

So EB3ROW will continue to move forward. In case of EB3 CO can calibrate move quite precise to match supply. So I do anticipate further movement. Good luck!

p.s. - if you must travel - ask lawyer - but my understanding is that as long as you travel on AP - it doesn't affect your 485 adjudication.

Spec, Q and other gurus

When EB2I reached July 2007 in October 2011 CO took the followings steps:

November 2011 - 01Nov2007 - 4 months movement - demand data 1,600
December 2011 - 15Mar2008 - 4.5 months movement - demand data 150
January 2012 - 01Jan2009 - 9.5 months movement - demand data not released
February 2012 - 01Jan2010 - 12 months movement - demand data 102
March 2012 - 01May2010 - 4 months movement - demand data 55
April 2012 - 01May2010 - 0 months movement - demand data 20
May 2012 - 15Aug2017 - 33 months retrogression - demand data not released
June 2012 - U - NA - demand data 12,650

When EB3 ROW got close to July 2007 in April 2013 CO took the following steps:
May 2013 - 01Dec2007 - 6 months movement - demand data around 1,700
June 2013 - 01 Sep2008 - 9 months movement - demand data around 450
July 2013 - ######### - ? months movement
August 2013 - ######### - ? months movement


Base on this numbers its looks like it took a couple of goods months to the documentary qualified reach and pass the monthly allocation in EB2I case. (and EB2C)
However I understand that this 2 are two different stories. EB2IC had a lot of spillover/fall down that kicked in from EB4, EB5, EB1 and EB2ROW.
In EBROW case is just the monthly allocation of 3,163 so probably they will reach and pass the monthly allocation limit much sooner not like EB2IC last year.
I would think (and hope) that EB3 ROW will move forward in July and stop in August and retrogress maybe in September 2013.
What you think the chance is the above will be true?

Is a big chance that I will be current in July VB (PD Jan 2009). My wife and daughter are back in my home country visiting the family and I was planning to join them for my sister wedding in August and come back in mid August.
What would you do if you would be in my situation?
1. Cancel everything and fly the family back and file for I-485.
2. Risk it and hope August will be current also
3. (the most expensive) Fly back the family in July, file for I-485 (+ EAD and AP) and go back in August. However I am not sure how would the travel outside of country affect the I485 (EAD + AP) application...etc.

I appreciate your time reading the above, any response will be appreciated.

Thank You

[isantem]

Based on the demand, I know 21000 known demand before me. But just a quick question, is it possible for the dates to move to Feb 2009 this year for EB2I ? Is really the EB1C in peak ?

I am EB3 ROW. I don't think EB2I dates will move to 2009, what I am reading it will be early mid 2008 at the best. For EB3 ROW is demand build operation that happened to EB2I last fiscal year.

Is your case porting ? Curious on why did not file I485 last year ?

EB3ROW - January 2009 was never current. Thanks

isantem - EB3ROW allocation is 72% of 40K + 72% of extra FB visas this year ~4K. This comes to about 33K this year.

So EB3ROW will continue to move forward. In case of EB3 CO can calibrate move quite precise to match supply. So I do anticipate further movement. Good luck!

p.s. - if you must travel - ask lawyer - but my understanding is that as long as you travel on AP - it doesn't affect your 485 adjudication.

If I file early July probably I will not get my AP in time so I will need to travel on H1B....so you say that is a NO, NO?
My other option is file for I485 without the EAD and AP. And apply for EAD & AP just after I come back from travel with H1B?

P.S. Thanks once again about your response. Thanks to your effort of putting this website together and many gurus efforts I am small EB3ROW guru between my local EB3 friends )

P.S.1 Spec I am refreshing every other second waiting for the master guru response Thank You!