EB3 Predictions & Calculations

[qesehmk]

Please visit EB2 thread to see details.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...r-Calculations)

This thread only contains incremental information.

Background

Here is an attempt to establish clarity to EB3. First lets understand the situation. Today there are about 114K 485 cases of EB3 (50% India and 35% ROW). However there are an additional 103K cases sitting at NVC. These cases belong to people who typically are waiting in their home countries to get a visa. The goliath here is philipines (45%) followed by ROW (25%) and India (20%).

So unlike EB2 the situation is complicated because A) number of backlog is huge B) in addition to China/India, even Mexico Philipines and ROW is backloged. What this does is it creates very very little room for any SOFAD or extra visas for any other countries. So lets analyze how the outlook is for each country.


Summary

EB3 is in a very tight spot where the dates will progress slowly. The annual demand in these categories exceed supply by a large number. Until now these categories used to received extra visas from other categories but with the changes in spillover (from vertical to horizontal), these categories are now starved. ROW is the only place where the dates could move significantly faster.

However the way EB2ROW and EB1 are stalled in terms of processing of 2011 filed 485s, & EB2's inability to generate enough demand to consume all SOFAD, there is a significant chance that EB3 will see some SOFAD.

It is not yet clear if the SOFAD receivd by EB3 will be applied strictly in PD order or will go towards ROW-EB3 until ROW-EB3 has either no demand or fulfilled 7% condition.

Details - (To be Updated - Expect to update before 21 Jun 2011)

Summary of EB3 Situation in 2011 USCIS Fiscal:
2011 Total Visa Demand - ~222K (includes 485 and CP) (However 90K demand is probably CP demand from recent years rather than backlogged years).
2011 Total Visa Availability - ~40K (of which potentially 10K goes to Other workers).

EB3 should receive some fall- across from EW. EB3 shouldn't expect any SOFAD from EB2 and as such following chart is of not much use to them. But still providing it.

Outlook for India
2011 Total Demand - 79K
2011 Total Availability - 3K + 4K fall across
The date as of now is at 22 Jan 02. Expect a movement of 8 months by Sep 2011. If no EB2 conversions then 3 months max movement. If we see 2-5K conversions then the dates could move upto August 2002.

Outlook for China
2011 Total Demand - 6K
2011 Total Availability - 3K
The date as of now is at 22 Nov 03. Expect a movement upto May 05 by Sep 2011. (However this is a bit dicey since we do not know whether new CP demand will kick in as dates progress.

Outlook for Mexico
2011 Total Demand - 5K
2011 Total Availability - 3K
The date as of now is at 1 May 01. This is quite puzzling since based on published inventory and assumed CP demand, mexico is light on EB3. Only based on that "known" data, the dates should move into Q3 2005. But for whatever reason Mexico is moving very slow. Don't know why as of now. The reason could be because of district office demand which is not reflected in either numbers.


Outlook for Philipines
2011 Total Demand - 55K (of which 14K is total demand that is from backlogged years)
2011 Total Availability - 3K
The date as of now is at 22 Jan 05. Expect a movement upto nov-05 by Sep 2011.

Outlook for ROW
2011 Total Demand - 70K (of which 44K pertains to backlogged years)
2011 Total Availability - 25K
The date as of now is at 22 Jan 05. Expect a movement through Jun 2006 by Sep 2011.

Outlook for EW / Other Workers
2011 Total Demand - 17K (of which only 1K seems to be backlogged.)
2011 Total Availability - 5K
The date as of now is around 1 apr 03 (except India and Mexico). Its very difficult to predict date movement because of number of uncertainties. 1) 485 inventory increased between 09-10 even when dates were not current. 2) CP inventory is 16 times that of 485 and not sure how much was taken care in 09. 3) Not sure of the visa usage relationship between EW and EB3 as well as whether 5K is entitlement or just upper limit. Sorry guys .. will update if we get better answers. If I were to bet I will say the date should move at least 2 years.


Note: There are some nuances between other workers and EB3. But right now I haven't considered those.

Summary
EB3 is relatively simple at macro level to predict because of the huge backlog. Very slow movements everywhere except EB3 ROW. Some conversions in EB3I. I know for those waiting for a GC this is quite painful. However our objective is to establish clarity to this whole process. Good luck!

EB3 needs a CIR.

[gcq]

Why do you think only EB3 has "dark inventory" ?

[qesehmk]

Its because they have more number of years pending. Whereas EB2 has already cleared the old labor days. Makes sense?

[gcq]

Its because they have more number of years pending. Whereas EB2 has already cleared the old labor days. Makes sense?

agree. There could be lot of unknowns from all these years of pending inventory. It shouldn't be that bad for EB3 categories except Mexico as all 245(I) cases have been cleared for all other countries.

[qesehmk]

Friends EB3 is now updated. Please refer to the head of the thread. Good luck!

[gcq]

Friends EB3 is now updated. Please refer to the head of the thread. Good luck!

Thanks for the update Q.
What is the source for CP numbers ?

[qesehmk]

Thanks for the update Q.
What is the source for CP numbers ?

NVC data from Nov 2009.

[rtmx]

Thanks Q.

I'm in a minority group of EW ROW.

Can I use EB3 ROW prediction for EW(otherworkers) ROW for any bit?

My PD is June 15 2003, with current CD April 1 2003.

I did hope to see CD moving to June 22 2003 by the time March Bulletin is out

But I'm losing most hopes now since it seems my son probably will be aged-out by the time I'm greened.

Such prediction comes from the fact that there was no 2007/7 boat for the other workers.

What do you think Q?

[qesehmk]

rtmx, you can't use EB3 ROW for EB3 EW. The reason being those two behave quite irrespective from each other it seems.

I do not have a lot of insight into how they are related from visa usuage perspective. However here are a few things for your consideration.

Today there are ONLY 633 ROW total cases for 485. However there could be as much as 6700 cases in counselar processing. 6700 is the number from Nov 2009. I would imagine that many of these people got their numbers last year itself. However in 2010 the quota is also reduced from 10K to 5K for EW and so for ROW teh quota goes from 7200 to 3600.

At teh same time, EW category is weird. Somehow the 485 applications increased between Dec 09 and Oct 10 inventories!! Which indicates that USCIS doesn';t have a good handle on that inventory.

Number wise you do have a good chance to get GC this year. But there are so many unknowns I hesitate to say so. Regarding your son, isn't his status protected as long as 485 is filed? Have you filed a 485?

Thanks Q.

I'm in a minority group of EW ROW.

Can I use EB3 ROW prediction for EW(otherworkers) ROW for any bit?

My PD is June 15 2003, with current CD April 1 2003.

I did hope to see CD moving to June 22 2003 by the time March Bulletin is out

But I'm losing most hopes now since it seems my son probably will be aged-out by the time I'm greened.

Such prediction comes from the fact that there was no 2007/7 boat for the other workers.

What do you think Q?

[qesehmk]

Head of the thread updated to more accurately reflect EW numbers.

[rtmx]

To the best of my knowledge,
I am not allowed to file a I-485 until my priority date is current. Thus it is impossible to lock my son's age until the visa bulletin allows me to
(correct me if i'm in the wrong though)

Child Status Protection Act helps reduce the children's ages by the pending time for I-140 petition.
But it is somewhat outdated in a sense that it fails to protect status of children of those under severe backlogs.

[qesehmk]

You are right. I didn't realize that some or all EW missed 2007 boat. I thought you already are in 485 stage.

p.s. - Just checked ... EW was the only category that was NOT current during July 2007 fiasco. So unfortunate.

To the best of my knowledge,
I am not allowed to file a I-485 until my priority date is current. Thus it is impossible to lock my son's age until the visa bulletin allows me to
(correct me if i'm in the wrong though)

Child Status Protection Act helps reduce the children's ages by the pending time for I-140 petition.
But it is somewhat outdated in a sense that it fails to protect status of children of those under severe backlogs.

[seand]

Q,

The summary should say 25K plus for EB3 ROW (available) not 22K. Small correction.

Also how did you predict that EB3 ROW would move to Sep 2005? Is this a short term or long term prediction, long term being @ end of Sept 2011?

If there are 25K plus available EB3 ROW should move upto March - May 2006 in my opinion.

[qesehmk]

seand

thank you. Updated and corrected the header. Also updated the forecast model in the header a bit.
While predicting date movement one can't just look at 485 data there is ton of cases for CP at NVC that also need to be accounted for. That is the reason teh movement is less than expected for EB3ROW. Does that make sense?

Q,

The summary should say 25K plus for EB3 ROW (available) not 22K. Small correction.

Also how did you predict that EB3 ROW would move to Sep 2005? Is this a short term or long term prediction, long term being @ end of Sept 2011?

If there are 25K plus available EB3 ROW should move upto March - May 2006 in my opinion.

[seand]

USCIS INV Oct 1 2010 - EB3 ROW

1997 - End 2004=====3337
2005==============12403
Jan-06=============1444
Feb-06=============1457
Mar-06=============1835
Apr-06=============1236

Tot AOS Cases=======21712

Est CP backlog (15%)==3256

Total potential usage==24969

This is an estimate using the USCIS backlog as of Oct 1 2010. If we just go by the backlog and estimated CP cases (15%) the PD should move to April of 2006. Few things to keep in mind:

1) There can't be many CP cases left 1997 - May 2005. Last time PD passed 2005 it stayed in May for several months. This should have flushed all the CP cases prior to that. CP cases get closed within 3 - 4 months most of the time. But I still calculated the 15% for this time period. This over estimation will help offset the dark demand from district offices and unaccounted cases still with USCIS.

2) Second point I want to make is when you look at the demand data for DoS it does not see all the actual backlog as current demand. That means DoS will most likely move dates a few months more to include more cases. If we go only by DoS demand data the PD should Move to June or July 2006. We are talking about 3 to 4 thousand cases not showing up in the DoS demand at any given time. I have also taken this into account as a buffer to mitigate the impact from the dark demand and unaccounted cases out there.

So my estimate is that the PD should move to Jul/Aug 2005 within the next 3 months or so and we should see the PD moving upto April 2006 give or take a month or two by Sep 2011. Total EB3 ROW allocation for FY2011 should be around 25K visas.

[qesehmk]

Seand

Will reply to you in a day. But yes I do agree that ROW will move significantly. Please see the head of the thread is now updated based on new CP assumptions.

USCIS INV Oct 1 2010 - EB3 ROW

1997 - End 2004=====3337
2005==============12403
Jan-06=============1444
Feb-06=============1457
Mar-06=============1835
Apr-06=============1236

Tot AOS Cases=======21712

Est CP backlog (15%)==3256

Total potential usage==24969

This is an estimate using the USCIS backlog as of Oct 1 2010. If we just go by the backlog and estimated CP cases (15%) the PD should move to April of 2006. Few things to keep in mind:

1) There can't be many CP cases left 1997 - May 2005. Last time PD passed 2005 it stayed in May for several months. This should have flushed all the CP cases prior to that. CP cases get closed within 3 - 4 months most of the time. But I still calculated the 15% for this time period. This over estimation will help offset the dark demand from district offices and unaccounted cases still with USCIS.

2) Second point I want to make is when you look at the demand data for DoS it does not see all the actual backlog as current demand. That means DoS will most likely move dates a few months more to include more cases. If we go only by DoS demand data the PD should Move to June or July 2006. We are talking about 3 to 4 thousand cases not showing up in the DoS demand at any given time. I have also taken this into account as a buffer to mitigate the impact from the dark demand and unaccounted cases out there.

So my estimate is that the PD should move to Jul/Aug 2005 within the next 3 months or so and we should see the PD moving upto April 2006 give or take a month or two by Sep 2011. Total EB3 ROW allocation for FY2011 should be around 25K visas.

[seand]

Hi Q,

Good to see you back, the site was dead for few days...

Well, I listened to a voice message by Charles O the other day. Another blogger was nice enough to email that to me. This was directly from CO answering a question about July 2005 PD for EB3 ROW. Well, according to that VM the situation looks pretty grim, looks like there is a huge dark demand, his current prediction is July 2005 becoming current May - June or July or next year. There are only about 6 thousand cases in the USCIS backlog for that period, so that must mean a big dark demand, as CP demand we know is not that much, you can tell that by looking at the demand data.

So ROW folks should wait and see... Also CO will issue a prediction for the rest of the year in the Dec/Jan VB that will cover the picture for the whole year.

[qesehmk]

Seand, CO can't get any more pessimistic. That's his job not to inflate anybody's hopes. He is doing that based on the 70K or so demand. But in reality only 44K pertains to backlogged years(IMHO). So EB3 should see movement into 2006 going into July 2011.

Hi Q,

Good to see you back, the site was dead for few days...

Well, I listened to a voice message by Charles O the other day. Another blogger was nice enough to email that to me. This was directly from CO answering a question about July 2005 PD for EB3 ROW. Well, according to that VM the situation looks pretty grim, looks like there is a huge dark demand, his current prediction is July 2005 becoming current May - June or July or next year. There are only about 6 thousand cases in the USCIS backlog for that period, so that must mean a big dark demand, as CP demand we know is not that much, you can tell that by looking at the demand data.

So ROW folks should wait and see... Also CO will issue a prediction for the rest of the year in the Dec/Jan VB that will cover the picture for the whole year.

[seand]

Do you think this district demand is still an issue or not? I thought the numbers should be factored into the regular demand already.

I agree CO did the same thing last year but in the end he did move EB3 ROW PD beyond his predictions....

[qesehmk]

Do you think this district demand is still an issue or not? I thought the numbers should be factored into the regular demand already.

I agree CO did the same thing last year but in the end he did move EB3 ROW PD beyond his predictions....

After looking at IVAMS data I think district demand is factored in.

[Spectator]

Q,

I don't quite understand your latest figures for EB3 in the spreadsheet.

You are giving an extra 3,960 visas to I & C SOFAD.

That can't and won't happen for a number of reasons.

1) Since I & C will reach their respective 7% limits, any spare visas would go to ROW.

2) In fact, (1) does not happen due to how the 7% limit is calculated.

It is convenient to calculate the 7% limit within each Category, but this is not how it is laid down in the law. The 7% figure is calculated on the total of FB and EB visa limits. Normally this distinction is not important, but it is in EB3 for both Mexico and Philippines.

Since both M & P reach their FB quotas, we can look at it based on the EB totals alone, which makes it easier to understand.

For 140,000 EB visas, 7% represents 9,800 visas.

Both M & P have very low usage of visas in EB categories other than EB3, so they can (and do) consume far more EB3 visas than the notional 2,803 based on EB3's 40,040 allocation. They still stay within the 9,800 overall limit.

In FY2008, M & P consumed an extra 5,000 visas (M=+2.1k, P=+2.9k) and in FY2009 they consumed an extra 4,500 visas (M=1.8k, P=+2.7k).

Since, I & C should consume their own share of 2,803 and 2,503 respectively, these extra visas are effectively taken from ROW allocation.

It is not entirely clear what happened in FY2010. Mexico went Unavailable very quickly. Did VO do this when they reached the 3k figure for EB3 or the 10.5k overall figure for Mexico?

On the basis that M & P consume an extra 4,000 visas between them in FY2011 (pure guess), then the effective ROW allocation for EB3/EW becomes 29,129 - 4,000 = 25,129 This has a significant effect on how far ROW can progress.

In the spreadsheet, I believe IC Consumption (SOFAD) should read a combined total of 5,306 for EB3/EW, as the previous version showed.

My understanding of the EB3 / EW relationship is as follows:

Both categories compete on an equal footing for the visas available by PD date. There is no separate quota as such for EW, only an upper limit to the total they can consume.

Out of interest, EW has not reached its quota in recent years for which data is available.

Something to ponder anyway.

[qesehmk]

Q,

I don't quite understand your latest figures for EB3 in the spreadsheet.

You are giving an extra 3,960 visas to I & C SOFAD.

That can't and won't happen for a number of reasons.

1) Since I & C will reach their respective 7% limits, any spare visas would go to ROW.

2) In fact, (1) does not happen due to how the 7% limit is calculated.

It is convenient to calculate the 7% limit within each Category, but this is not how it is laid down in the law. The 7% figure is calculated on the total of FB and EB visa limits. Normally this distinction is not important, but it is in EB3 for both Mexico and Philippines.

Since both M & P reach their FB quotas, we can look at it based on the EB totals alone, which makes it easier to understand.

For 140,000 EB visas, 7% represents 9,800 visas.

Both M & P have very low usage of visas in EB categories other than EB3, so they can (and do) consume far more EB3 visas than the notional 2,803 based on EB3's 40,040 allocation. They still stay within the 9,800 overall limit.

In FY2008, M & P consumed an extra 5,000 visas (M=+2.1k, P=+2.9k) and in FY2009 they consumed an extra 4,500 visas (M=1.8k, P=+2.7k).

Since, I & C should consume their own share of 2,803 and 2,503 respectively, these extra visas are effectively taken from ROW allocation.

It is not entirely clear what happened in FY2010. Mexico went Unavailable very quickly. Did VO do this when they reached the 3k figure for EB3 or the 10.5k overall figure for Mexico?

On the basis that M & P consume an extra 4,000 visas between them in FY2011 (pure guess), then the effective ROW allocation for EB3/EW becomes 29,129 - 4,000 = 25,129 This has a significant effect on how far ROW can progress.

In the spreadsheet, I believe IC Consumption (SOFAD) should read a combined total of 5,306 for EB3/EW, as the previous version showed.

My understanding of the EB3 / EW relationship is as follows:

Both categories compete on an equal footing for the visas available by PD date. There is no separate quota as such for EW, only an upper limit to the total they can consume.

Out of interest, EW has not reached its quota in recent years for which data is available.

Something to ponder anyway.

Spec you really laid it out very nicely. I concede the point. I had overlooked this fact that EW is not really a separate category. In my spreadsheet I am treating it like one and hence the confusion. Will fix it soon.

p.s. - Regarding your observation about EW not reaching its quota .... whats more amusing is that yet the dates are not moving forward. Wondering if it is because EW has huge CP backlog? Don't know.

[Spectator]

I thought it time to write something about EB3, since it seems sadly neglected as a forum. Please treat this as a discussion point.

Personally, this seem far more complicated than EB2 and several facts have made that even more so.

Charles Oppenheim of the Visa Office has stated that he believes 45% of EB3 is District Office cases. On the other hand, USCIS said that in June 2010, there were 23,000 cases at District Offices.

There is no context to CO statement. I don't think he can mean 45% of the TOTAL EB3 pending cases. One way to reconcile both statement is to say that by the time FY2011 started, there were 18k DO cases remaining. With 40k approvals for FY2011 allowed, 18/40 is 45%.

In any case, the VO seems to be acting as if there are 45% DO cases, as this amount would explain the progress of the Cut Off dates so far this year.

What is not clear, is over what time period the DO cases will be exhausted. If it all happens in one year, then Cut Off date progress would be painfully slow.

If it happens over more than one year, the effective % decreases. I don't think anyone knows the answer to this and prediction becomes almost impossible.

The best I can do is to present a range of values and people can choose accordingly. The figure below assume 15% Consular Processed cases in addition to the DO cases.

INDIA

To date this year:

EB3-I

--VB-- --- -Cut Off- --- Avge DO
Oct 10 --- 15-JAN-02 --- - 08% -
Nov 10 --- 22-JAN-02 --- - 30% -
Dec 10 --- 22-JAN-02 --- - 53% -
Jan 10 --- 01-FEB-02 --- - 49% -

If a DO rate of 45% was sustained throughout the year, the Cut Off Date would move to around 05-APR-02.

If the DO rate averaged 25% for the year, the Cut Off Date would move to around 22-APR-02 or 01-MAY-02.

If the DO rate averaged 10% for the year, the Cut Off Date would move to around 15-MAY-02.

Any positive effect from EB3-EB2 Porting would improve this, but I don't believe very many people with such early PDs would have Ported.


REST OF WORLD (Excl. China, India, Mexico, Philippines)

To date this year:

EB3-ROW

--VB-- --- -Cut Off- --- Avge DO
Oct 10 --- 08-JAN-05 --- - 08% -
Nov 10 --- 22-JAN-05 --- - 45% -
Dec 10 --- 22-FEB-05 --- - 55% -
Jan 10 --- 22-MAR-05 --- - 47% -

If a DO rate of 45% was sustained throughout the year, the Cut Off Date would move to around 22-NOV-05.

If the DO rate averaged 25% for the year, the Cut Off Date would move to around 15-FEB-06.

If the DO rate averaged 10% for the year, the Cut Off Date would move to around 15-APR-06.


PHILIPPINES

No predictions for the Philippines, only observations.

Philippines has by far the highest % of Consular Processed cases at 35-40%.

To date it has managed to keep pace with EB3-ROW, but this may not continue for long, despite the fact they regularly use far more than the notional 7% limit within EB3 (5,536 in FY2009).

The DOS Demand Data suggests that Philippines has the largest number of cases for 2006 as a single Country at more than 12k. ROW has around 20k.

The NVC data shows Philippines as having 45k EB3 cases waiting to be processed. These numbers must lie in the future although there is some double counting between the Demand and NVC numbers and many will be post the current I-485 backlog.

The inescapable conclusion is that at some point (possibly this FY, but almost certainly next FY), EB3-Philippines must retrogress to a point earlier than ROW. Given future numbers implied by the NVC data, this will be a continuing trend.

It probably also makes sense because visa relief for Schedule A essentially ceased after FY2006.

Overall, EB3-Philippines may just be able to progress at the same rate as EB3-ROW in FY2011, but it might be a struggle towards the end of the year if ROW moves into 2006.


CHINA

Another Country with very high Consular Processing at around 30%. That might explain why they were harder hit by the under-allocation of EB3 visas in FY2008 and FY2009.

No predictions other than to say that the DOS Demand data says they should progress well into 2004 this FY.


MEXICO

I don't even claim to understand EB3-Mexico.

Another Country that regularly exceeds the notional 7% EB3 limit.

The Cut Off dates swing wildly, which suggests there is a lot of demand that is invisible to the VO.

Has a low Consular Processing ratio of 5% and used 4,566 EB3 visas in FY2009.

Both USCIS Inventory and DOS Demand show relatively small numbers, yet it went Unavailable from May in FY2010, the Cut Off Date started the year at 22APR01 and rapidly advanced to 15APR03 in January 2011.

Who can tell.

[gcq]

Pardon my ignorance.

Why does visa office claim invisibility to the applications at district office ?
As per my understanding whenever a case is processed completely, USCIS will request a visa number through IVAMS system (http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/109134.pdf) . This will notify the visa office that an application is requesting a visa number.

Why should the percentage of applications pending at District Office vs service centers be a concern to visa office ?

[qesehmk]

MEXICO

I don't even claim to understand EB3-Mexico.

Another Country that regularly exceeds the notional 7% EB3 limit.

could it be because mexico has low eb2 demand? may be uscis is applying 7% overall?

Why does visa office claim invisibility to the applications at district office ?
As per my understanding whenever a case is processed completely, USCIS will request a visa number through IVAMS system (http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/109134.pdf) . This will notify the visa office that an application is requesting a visa number.

Why should the percentage of applications pending at District Office vs service centers be a concern to visa office ?

It seems they don't even touch cases that are away from the "current date" and hence the invisibility.