with all the factors eb2row projections vs acturals there is a delta of 30k , so if we take that out of eb3 then , is it ok to assume 10k i485 inventory avg for every year from 2008 to 2013 , which would be 60k and then most of the cases till 2009 could be approved in fy2013 quota , can we assume that eb3 row inventory for fy2014 is 40k
krishn,Originally Posted by krishn
What you are asking is very complex IMO. I actually think it is harder than calculating EB2 numbers because there are more variables and less data.
Even deciding what the allocation is has to be something of a guess, because the overall 7% equation is at play in EB3 for Mexico and Philippines.
Netting off the EB2 approvals is also problematic. EB2 is Current for ROW and Mexico and they are affecting by other factors such as PERM processing speed and the need for retrogression in FY2012 which distorts the number of approvals in a FY versus PERM Certifications for a CY PD. Even now, CY 2013 PD PERM are still a work in progress for DOL.
My sense is that EB3-ROW cases may have dropped to about 10k per CY, although I am not very confident in that number. If EB3-C and EB3-M account for an additional 6k, then EB3-WW demand would be 16k per CY movement forward of the Cut Off Dates against an allocation of perhaps 30k for the FY.
If that were the case, Cut Off Dates have reached 01OCT12 for EB3-WW to date and probably won't move further forward this year. In all likelihood, they will retrogress.
By October 2014, that would be 2 years difference, which might translate to 32k of theoretical demand, based on the above figures. However, during FY2015, another 16k would be added to theoretical demand. In fact the theoretical numbers would be higher, since not all cases with a PD up to October 2012 have been approved. On the positive side, DOL would not have processed a lot of the PERM, let alone USCIS process I-140, so actual demand that DOS would see would be considerably less than that number.
It is also quite possible that EB3-WW numbers have continued to decline during CY2013/CY2014. There is some (rather shaky) evidence that numbers for 2010/2011 are also somewhat lower than 2008/2009.
I hope you get a sense of the difficulty.
I think I have already covered why EB3-I dates are unlikely to move much over the next 6 months in a previous post.
Last edited by Spectator; 04-30-2014 at 07:53 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Q, thanks a lot. may be i got little overexcited with the calculations of actuals vs projections. But you know the bigger picture and thanks for the through explanation. This helps a lot of EB3I guys who are always looking for some numbers and direction.
when the Apr 2014 inventory is out ,
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gree...-485-inventory
we will get a better picture for EB3I folks.
Thanks
Thanks Spec
Q,Spec, anyone ,
what duration and how many visas does the DOS issue to USICS for EB3-ROW ? does it issue like quarterly say like 7k visas or like monthly 2.3 k visas ?
The only limit that DOS has is that no more than 27% of the total EB allocation may be used in each of the first 3 quarters.
Within that, it is possible for a Category (and Countries or Groups within a Category) to receive more or less than the notional 9% of their total allocation in each of the first 9 months.
The number that EB3-ROW might receive in a given month is more likely driven by their own demand and that of other Categories.
Here's the number of Trackitt approvals per month for primary applicants for EB3-ROW:
Oct -- 47
Nov -- 22
Dec -- 24
Jan -- 13
Feb -- 55
Mar -- 65
Apr -- 15
Note the "lumpiness" of the approvals.
As I alluded to before, deciding what is the allocation available to EB3-ROW is also not simple. This year, if 150k EB visas are available, then EB3 would receive 28.6% of that number (42.9k). Theoretically, after 3k each for China, India, Mexico and Philippines are deducted, then EB3-ROW might expect 42.9 - 12.0 = 30.9k.
In reality, they will not receive that number. Because of the overall 7% law, Mexico and Philippines can use more than 7% in EB3 and still stay within the overall 7% limit. Mexico might be constrained from doing so by sharing the same Cut Off Date as ROW, but EB3-Philippines are likely to use in excess of 7k visas in EB3. That would reduce EB3-ROW allocation by at least 4k, meaning they would only have around 27k.
Here's some historical figures to illustrate the point:
-- FY --- EB3 7% -- Mexico --- Philippines --- ROW (Theory) -- ROW (Actual) -- Diff.
FY2008 --- 3,257 --- 5,325 --------- 6,154 --------- 33,804 ------- 29,884 -- (3,920)
FY2009 --- 2,803 --- 4,566 --------- 5,536 --------- 29,128 ------- 26,295 -- (2,833)
FY2010 --- 3,016 --- 7,740 --------- 3,651 --------- 31,323 ------- 24,328 -- (6,995)
FY2011 --- 2,803 --- 6,228 --------- 3,909 --------- 29,128 ------- 20,744 -- (8,384)
FY2012 --- 2,902 --- 3,748 --------- 6,479 --------- 30,148 ------- 23,691 -- (6,457)
FY2013 --- 3,172 --- 3,237 --------- 5,636 --------- 32,931 ------- 23,822 -- (9,109)
Total FY2008 - FY2013 ------------------------------------------------------ (37,698)
Average --------------------------------------------------------------------- (6,283)
The difference for FY2013 reduces to about 4k once Fall Across to EB3-I of 5k is deducted.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thanks spec , I was trying to get an idea here of how many EB3ROW visas could be used and available for the FY2014.
off of the 30k they could have allocated/issued 20k till june and roughly around 9k for the last quarter months of july,august,sept.
heres how the EB3ROW dates progressed :
march-2013 01MAY07
april-2013 01JUL07
may-2013 01DEC07
june-2013 01SEP08
july-2013 01JAN09
august-2013 01JAN09
september-2013 01JUL10
october-2013 01JUL10
november-2013 01OCT10
december-2013 01OCT11
january-2014 01APR12
Here are the inventory numbers as of 1oct2013 and as of jan2014 , can we assume like they could have allocated 8k for EB3ROW ?
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...er_01-2013.pdf
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total
January 9 1 6 4 5 13 8 31 57 365 255 168 922
February 2 3 8 7 9 20 10 36 68 324 233 112 832
March 1 29 8 5 15 47 26 78 352 240 138 939
April 1 2 287 13 5 11 2 33 87 335 250 129 1,155
May 1 1 8 4 10 13 27 144 370 198 105 881
June 2 5 9 18 16 5 31 124 375 244 160 989
July 2 7 3 13 11 6 39 246 334 253 914
August 2 1 2 11 4 11 11 12 49 244 317 172 836
September 1 5 9 10 12 29 26 232 2,168 174 2,666
October 4 6 7 11 18 16 62 238 1,158 164 1,684
November 2 2 2 3 10 11 15 25 60 232 359 127 848
December 3 1 6 4 7 5 11 32 59 370 433 159 1,090
Total 9 17 4 21 379 85 113 166 192 479 2,120 6,890 2,469 812 0 0 0 13,756
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...y-2014-Jan.pdf
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total
January 9 1 14 4 5 10 6 29 53 192 446 281 152 1,698 2,900
February 5 1 21 9 8 16 11 32 52 189 399 211 168 9 1,131
March 1 46 10 3 21 43 25 44 236 458 260 154 8 1,309
April 311 10 11 13 2 32 71 211 434 223 109 1,427
May 2 1 1 6 7 7 12 18 90 202 371 218 112 1,047
June 2 1 4 6 13 19 15 5 31 104 233 403 241 115 1,192
July 2 7 4 11 10 5 37 149 197 404 179 124 1,129
August 1 1 9 4 13 16 9 35 141 204 288 209 142 1,072
September 1 1 6 8 7 9 24 22 117 207 352 275 109 1,138
October 2 3 4 5 12 16 15 45 101 249 285 159 3 899
November 3 5 2 1 6 9 16 20 35 137 222 243 108 6 813
December 4 1 7 4 5 7 11 34 51 224 267 279 129 6 1,029
Total 13 24 4 20 435 85 112 165 174 392 1,283 2,609 4,362 2,493 1,200 1,715 0 0 15,086
krishn,
You might be interested in the comparison of Trackitt approvals for FY2011 to FY2014 to date for EB3-ROW.
It's certainly not an exact science, but might give you some thoughts about numbers.
Personally, I believe the number is already in excess of 20k, which is why likely retrogression in the near future has been mentioned in the latest comments from CO.
Last edited by Spectator; 05-01-2014 at 06:03 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
--------------------------------------------- 2008 ---- 2009 ---- 2010 ---- 2011 ---- 2012 ---- 2013 ---- Total
PERM ROW ---------------------------------- 30,138 -- 19,047 -- 15,819 -- 17,258 -- 19,368 --- 8,589 -- 110,219
Actual EB2 Row Approvals per DOS ---------- 42,588 -- 28,612 -- 23,158 -- 28,613 -- 20,756 -- 34,849 -- 178,576
eb2row perm =Actual EB2 row approvals/2.2 - 19,358 -- 13,005 -- 10,526 -- 13,005 --- 9,434 -- 15,840 --- 81,170
Since EB2 is current from 2008 , assuming a perm filed in one year approves in next year
from 2009 to 2013 total ROW perm is is 80K
from 2010 to 2013 total eb2 actual approvals is 49k
so probably from 2009 to 2013 the eb3row pending perm could be 31k
==========
from 2010 to 2012 total ROW perm is 52K
from 2011 to 2013 eb2 approval is 38K
so probably eb3 row perm between 2010 and 2012 is 14k
==========
from 2010 to 2013 total perm is 61K
from 2011 to 2013 eb2 approval is 38K
so probably eb3 row perm between 2010 and 2013 - 23k
=========
2009 - 2012 row perm - 71 k
2010 - 2013 eb2 approval perm - 48k
2009 - 2012 eb3ROW could be - 22k
Last edited by Spectator; 05-02-2014 at 02:28 PM. Reason: Formatted figures for readability
krishn,
I see different EB2-ROW approval figures from DOS to the one's in your post.
For example FY2013:
Total EB2 --------- 63,461
Less China ------- ( 3,627)
Less India ------- (17,193)
Less Mexico ------ ( 1,717)
Less Philippines - ( 4,439)
Total EB2-ROW ----- 36,485
--------------------------------------------- 2008 ---- 2009 ---- 2010 ---- 2011 ---- 2012 ---- 2013 ---- Total
krishn EB2 Row Approvals per DOS ---------- 42,588 -- 28,612 -- 23,158 -- 28,613 -- 20,756 -- 34,849 -- 178,576
Spec EB2 Row Approvals per DOS ------------ 44,934 -- 30,093 -- 24,427 -- 30,161 -- 21,778 -- 36,485 -- 187,878
The difference isn't huge, but I do like to understand the source of the data
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec - On a different note - have you ever observed that USCIS and DOS published numbers are not quite same. Quite often they are different.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
I have taken out the china-taiwan ,
EB2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
China-mainland 6,955 3,045 6,505 8,257 5,858 3,627
china-Taiwan 2,346 1,481 1,269 1,548 1,022 1,636
india 14,806 10,106 19,961 23,997 19,726 17,193
philipines 2,057 1,850 2,162 3,242 2,408 4,439
mexico 1,347 922 817 1,147 823 1,717
eb2 total 70,099 46,016 53,872 66,804 50,593 63,461
row 42,588 28,612 23,158 28,613 20,756 34,849
Q,
It was the first thing I noticed when I first saw the DHS figures. I would say they are always slightly different, although generally not by much.
It doesn't surprise me. Two government departments that don't share information across common systems and don't want to.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
PERM ROW 30138 19047 15819 17258 19368 8589
row 44934 30093 24427 30161 21778 36485
eb2row perm =eb2row actual approvals / 2.2 20425 13679 11103 13710 9899 16584
Since EB2 is current from 2008 , assuming a perm filed in one year approves in next year
from 2009 to 2013 total ROW perm is is 80K
from 2010 to 2013 total eb2 actual approvals is 51k
so probably from 2009 to 2013 the eb3row pending perm could be 29k
==========
from 2010 to 2012 total ROW perm is 52K
from 2011 to 2013 eb2 approval is 40K
so probably eb3 row perm between 2010 and 2012 is 12k
==========
from 2010 to 2013 total perm is 61K
from 2011 to 2013 eb2 approval is 40K
so probably eb3 row perm between 2010 and 2013 - 21k
=========
2009 - 2012 row perm - 71 k
2010 - 2013 eb2 approval perm - 51k
2009 - 2012 eb3ROW perms could be - 20k
========
2008-2012 row perm - 101k
2009-2013 eb2 perm approval - 65k
2008-2012 eb3row perms could be -36k
==========
2008-2013 row perm -- 110k
2009-2013 eb2 approval perm -- 65k
2008-2013 eb3row perm -- 45k
=========
2008-2013 row perm -- 110k
2008-2013 eb2 approval perm -- 85k
2008-2013 eb3 row perm -- 25k
========
looks like from the uscis i485 inventory they have got past 2009 by Jan inventory report. are we looking at the max 21k perm eb3 applications converting to 485's. ?
isnt the perm running like an year behind and it takes like 6 months to process 485 (background checks etc) ?
probably shouldnt we consider 20k perm eb3 would be converting over to i485 from jan'14 to august'14 this year
it looks like with the huge eb2 row approvals vs perm row, there could be lot less eb3 row apps from 2010 than anyone would have thot and it would take sometime for uscis to get those 485s done.
A couple of points to ponder.
a) Not all EB2 require a PERM. Historically, around 20% of EB2-ROW approvals appear to be NIW cases. Schedule A does not require PERM either, but I have no idea how many they represent.
b) The latest Cut Off Date EB3-ROW has reached is 01OCT12. DOL has passed that date for processing both Regular and Audit cases.
As of 04/04/2013 DOL were processing Sept 9, 2013 Regular cases and Jan 31, 2013 Audit Cases.
DOL were processing October 2012 Regular cases in January 2013 and Audit cases in December 2013.
Apart from a few delayed Audit decisions due to SR, the only additions now should be from be from Appeals at BALCA.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Dear Friends
I just learnt today that somebody i knew from work died over the weekend. While the relationship was work related the person was extremely intelligent and very honest one. I just feel sad that when he called on Thursday I was busy and couldn't talk to him.
That's what life is. We never know if this is our last conversation. This GC as well as career at some level is much less important than people around us. Just a small perspective that I reaffirmed my faith in today. I don't mean to start the week on a gloomy note. But I thought I at least owed this note in honor of this extremely bright and equally honest guy.
Regards,
Q
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q,
I am very sorry to here that news. You clearly thought sufficient of the person to to mention them.
I completely agree with your philosophy - it's a shame that such events serve to remind us about it.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
I am sorry for the loss. what was the reason for the sudden demise ?
Hope he rests in peace.
here are some more numbers to consider,
year----------------------------------------- --2008 --2009 --2010 --2011 --2012 --2013
PERM ROW----------------------------------- --30138 --19047 --15819 --17258 --19368 --8589
eb2row actual approvals / 2.2 ---------------- --22467 --15047 --12214 --15081 --10889 --18243
set 20% for niw etc -------------------------- --17974 --12038 --9771 --12065 --8711 --14594
EB3 Perm guesstimate (prior year - this year) ---na- --18100 --9276 --3754 --8547 --4774
spec, doesn't schedule A , goes into eb3 and not eb2 ? eb2 requirements on usicis doesnt say schedule A but eb3 does mention it.
Thanks Spec and Krishn. He died of brain hemorrhage.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Schedule A occupations do not necessarily have to apply under EB3, but the majority probably would.
A Nurse Practitioner would likely come under EB2, but it is still a Schedule A occupation.
For EB2, other than Philippines, it probably is not much of a consideration.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
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