EB3 Predictions & Calculations

[Spectator]

Can the 'AILA liaison' ask this question on EB3ROW/EB3I movement/spillover to DOS Visa office(r) /(Charlie Oppenheimer) ?

AILA asked this question in mid March, with the following replies:

What will it take for there to be movement in EB-3 India?

At this time, there is nothing which can be done to improve the India EB-3 cut-off date situation unless there is a legislative change. The amount of pre-adjudicated India EB-3 demand versus the annual limit prevents more than a one or two week monthly movement of this cut-off date. For example, at this time, more than 9,100 India EB-3 applicants with priority dates earlier than January 1, 2005 (alone) have already been reported to the visa Office and the FY2015 annual limit is approximately 2,875.

Do you foresee EB-3 Worldwide becoming current anytime soon? If so, what would that mean for EB-3 India?

Charlie does not anticipate that EB-3 Worldwide will become current anytime soon but the cut-off date could easily reach 2015. If the Worldwide EB-3 category ever becomes current then (and only then) any "otherwise unused" numbers could be made available to the India EB-3 category, which has the earliest EB-3 cut-off date.

http://www.immigration-information.c...updates.17812/

I don't think he is going to give any other answer if asked again.

[krishn]

What will it take for there to be movement in EB-3 India?

Do you foresee EB-3 Worldwide becoming current anytime soon? If so, what would that mean for EB-3 India?

more of sorta follow up questions on the ones above, like , since eb3row is technically current ,what is eb3row demand and if its low ,why not move eb3i aggressively like 3 weeks per bulletin in anticipation of fall across ?

[ROCK72]

more of sorta follow up questions on the ones above, like , since eb3row is technically current ,what is eb3row demand and if its low ,why not move eb3i aggressively like 3 weeks per bulletin in anticipation of fall across ?

Maybe it will. Someone in Trackitt with EB3I PD of 1/28/04 got RFE....

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...-from-may-2015

[perestroika]

My first post here. Regret not joining sooner because I've always admired Q, Spectator, and others for their insightful analyses. I guess I should pop the cherry with a question. It seems like the AoS pre-registration fix will be implemented this year. If so, will the deluge of new I-485 applications slow down processing of EB3RoW I-485 processing, reduce approvable EB3RoW demand, and increase the FA base available to EB3I?

[Spectator]

My first post here. Regret not joining sooner because I've always admired Q, Spectator, and others for their insightful analyses. I guess I should pop the cherry with a question. It seems like the AoS pre-registration fix will be implemented this year. If so, will the deluge of new I-485 applications slow down processing of EB3RoW I-485 processing, reduce approvable EB3RoW demand, and increase the FA base available to EB3I?

perestroika,

I think it would slow all processing, period, unless extra staff are hired. A slowing of EB3-ROW processing would likely equally mean less EB3-I would be processed as well.

It may well be that extra contractors could entirely process the preregistration cases, since they won't require adjudication. In which case, approval of cases that are current would be much less affected. There wouldn't be a pressing need to process the preregistration cases all at once within especially tight time frames. If it takes a year or more it probably isn't a particularly big deal.

It's an interesting question - I don't know the answer - just throwing out some thoughts.

You mentioned preregistration. If visa recapture were to happen, I could see processing times escalating to years, particularly if the Cut Off Dates were just made Current for all Categories.

[perestroika]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

My fear is that AoS pre-registration and EAD processing for new AoS applicants will screw up and effectively nullify any FA hopes EB3I has this year, even if USCIS hires extra contractors, because their onboarding and training will be at the hands of the existing staff. On the other hand, I suppose EB3I has a small advantage in that most of its demand is pre-approved, while the same cannot be said of EB3RoW. It's going to be one heck of a ride moving forward. AoS pre-registration fix, if it does happen, will significantly and permanently alter the visa bulletin dynamics.

[krishn]

Maybe it will. Someone in Trackitt with EB3I PD of 1/28/04 got RFE....

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...-from-may-2015

Guru's,

If there is no FA till what date will EB3I move this FY? Are Feb2004 and Mar2004 EB3-I guys getting rfe's ?

Thanks

[krishn]

Guru's,

If there is no FA till what date will EB3I move this FY? Are Feb2004 and Mar2004 EB3-I guys getting rfe's ?

Thanks

looking at the i485 pending inventory from oct14, my guess is eb3i should move to march first week or april first week with no FA , depending on the still to be filed or already ported i485 counting errors!!


Are Feb2004 and Mar2004 EB3-I PD'ers getting rfe's ?

[amulchandra]

looking at the i485 pending inventory from oct14, my guess is eb3i should move to march first week or april first week with no FA , depending on the still to be filed or already ported i485 counting errors!!


Are Feb2004 and Mar2004 EB3-I PD'ers getting rfe's ?

I know one person at work place who got RFE with a March 2004 PD. I saw some one from April on trackitt.

[krishn]

I know one person at work place who got RFE with a March 2004 PD. I saw some one from April on trackitt.

thanks, is the rfe for EVL and medicals ?

Any FEB 2004 EB3I PD'ers getting RFE's ?

Thanks

[amulchandra]

Hi Spec,

I remember reading your post where you mentioned that Philippines may use the EB3 Row SO due to low demand in FB category. But looks like FB has enough demand that they had to retrogress dates. Do you think EB3 I will be the only candidate for EB3 ROW SO this year? Of course provided there is SO and all other applicable conditions stay the same.

Thanks
Amul

[Suva2001]

Hi Spec,

I remember reading your post where you mentioned that Philippines may use the EB3 Row SO due to low demand in FB category. But looks like FB has enough demand that they had to retrogress dates. Do you think EB3 I will be the only candidate for EB3 ROW SO this year? Of course provided there is SO and all other applicable conditions stay the same.

Thanks
Amul

I have the same question.

[Spectator]

Hi Spec,

I remember reading your post where you mentioned that Philippines may use the EB3 Row SO due to low demand in FB category. But looks like FB has enough demand that they had to retrogress dates. Do you think EB3 I will be the only candidate for EB3 ROW SO this year? Of course provided there is SO and all other applicable conditions stay the same.

Thanks
Amul

Amul,

I did not say that Philippines would have low demand in FB. Philippines always use their FB allocation.

It's not technically correct to refer to EB3 Philippines as using ROW spillover.

Philippines are using visas within the overall 7% limit across FB and EB. Since they use their allocation for FB,it can be simplified to use of the 7% within EB.

Currently, the estimate of available EB visas for FY2015 is 144,730.

7% of that represents 10,131 visas available to Philippines in EB categories. Use of less than that number (however many might be in a specific Category such as EB3) is not a violation of the 7% limit.

In FY2014, Philippines used 8,172 visas within EB, of which 5,685 were in EB3, when the 7% limit within EB was 10,517.

Since EB3 as a whole has a fixed limit, the ability of Philippines to use more than the prorated 7% amount in EB3 reduces the number available to ROW, but that cannot be described as FA from ROW to Philippines. The same is also true of Mexico, but has not been much of an issue since they started to share the same COD as ROW in FY2011.

For FY2015, Philippines might use something like the following in the other Categories (historical use plus allowing a higher number for EB2 this FY):

EB1 ----- 250
EB2 --- 3,000
EB4 ----- 250
EB5 ------- 5

Total - 3,505

That theoretically leaves 6,626 that Philippines could use in EB3 and stay within the 7% limit.

A large part of EB-P use is by RN and PT who Consular Process in Manila. The rapid movement of the COD has increased the numbers of qualified applicants and many older cases have probably now re-qualified with new employers (having originally lost their sponsor). This has led to a surge of demand from EB3-P and necessitated retrogression. The NVC figures have always shown a huge number of CP cases (over 29k in Nov 2014). It's been a matter of speculation as to how many might be "dead" or "abandoned" cases.

EB3-Mexico have previously seen a similar situation. In FY2008 they were Unavailable for the final quarter and in both FY2009 and FY2010 they were made Unavailable from May to September, having used 5,325, 4,566 and 7,740 visas respectively.

India will be the only candidate for Fall Across from ROW within EB3. India applicants have the earliest PD and it's unlikely there will be sufficient FA to India in FY2015 will cause them to reach even the COD of 01JAN05 set for Philippines in the June VB. If they do, then both Countries will start to share FA.

[perestroika]

India will be the only candidate for Fall Across from ROW within EB3. India applicants have the earliest PD and it's unlikely there will be sufficient FA to India in FY2015 will cause them to reach even the COD of 01JAN05 set for Philippines in the June VB. If they do, then both Countries will start to share FA.

Given all that we know today (PERM stats, EB3:EB2 ratio, January inventory, I-485 processing times, VB movement thus far, EB3P consumption), how much FA do you think EB3I will get from EB3RoW, and how far will the EB3I COD move in FY2015, in your view?

[amulchandra]

Amul,

I did not say that Philippines would have low demand in FB. Philippines always use their FB allocation.

It's not technically correct to refer to EB3 Philippines as using ROW spillover.

Philippines are using visas within the overall 7% limit across FB and EB. Since they use their allocation for FB,it can be simplified to use of the 7% within EB.

Currently, the estimate of available EB visas for FY2015 is 144,730.

7% of that represents 10,131 visas available to Philippines in EB categories. Use of less than that number (however many might be in a specific Category such as EB3) is not a violation of the 7% limit.

In FY2014, Philippines used 8,172 visas within EB, of which 5,685 were in EB3, when the 7% limit within EB was 10,517.

Since EB3 as a whole has a fixed limit, the ability of Philippines to use more than the prorated 7% amount in EB3 reduces the number available to ROW, but that cannot be described as FA from ROW to Philippines. The same is also true of Mexico, but has not been much of an issue since they started to share the same COD as ROW in FY2011.

For FY2015, Philippines might use something like the following in the other Categories (historical use plus allowing a higher number for EB2 this FY):

EB1 ----- 250
EB2 --- 3,000
EB4 ----- 250
EB5 ------- 5

Total - 3,505

That theoretically leaves 6,626 that Philippines could use in EB3 and stay within the 7% limit.

A large part of EB-P use is by RN and PT who Consular Process in Manila. The rapid movement of the COD has increased the numbers of qualified applicants and many older cases have probably now re-qualified with new employers (having originally lost their sponsor). This has led to a surge of demand from EB3-P and necessitated retrogression. The NVC figures have always shown a huge number of CP cases (over 29k in Nov 2014). It's been a matter of speculation as to how many might be "dead" or "abandoned" cases.

EB3-Mexico have previously seen a similar situation. In FY2008 they were Unavailable for the final quarter and in both FY2009 and FY2010 they were made Unavailable from May to September, having used 5,325, 4,566 and 7,740 visas respectively.

India will be the only candidate for Fall Across from ROW within EB3. India applicants have the earliest PD and it's unlikely there will be sufficient FA to India in FY2015 will cause them to reach even the COD of 01JAN05 set for Philippines in the June VB. If they do, then both Countries will start to share FA.

Thanks a lot for your detail explanation Spec.

Amul

[Suva2001]

Spec, I was not aware of this. Thanks for explaining this. That means that there is a possiblity that EB3Row quota might have already reduced to such an extent that EB3Row has already reached the limit. In that case EB3-I might not receive any FA visas. Can this be a possibility?

[krishn]

I know one person at work place who got RFE with a March 2004 PD. I saw some one from April on trackitt.

Looks like all of the EVL , Medical RFE's for EB3I for FEB04 and Mar04 are from NSC. Any TSC rfe's for feb/mar/apr04 EB3I's?

[Spectator]

Spec, I was not aware of this. Thanks for explaining this. That means that there is a possiblity that EB3Row quota might have already reduced to such an extent that EB3Row has already reached the limit. In that case EB3-I might not receive any FA visas. Can this be a possibility?

I think that seems unlikely based on the information that is available.

Even if EB3-P used 6.5k and Mexico, China and India used the 3 k allocation, that is only 15.5k.

The allocation for EB3 is 41.4k, so ROW would have to reach 25.9k for there to be no FA.

Even though I do expect EB3-ROW approvals to increase, I don't see them reaching that figure. I wouldn't want to say exactly how many ROW might use, but I do still expect FA to India within EB3.

[jdoe99]

Given that EB2 is not expected to get a much spillover as the last few years, could it be that's why they are aggressively moving EB2 before the last quarter. CO has also mentioned that the dates will move slowly in the last coupla months for EB2. So I am wondering if they are giving out EB2's evenly till then and the last couple of months would be EB3 blitz time. Could it be that DOS and USCIS has already started working more closely as WH wanted?

[amulchandra]

Bumping this thread up in light of the RFEs EB3 I receiving. Any guesses as to what would be the PD movements in the next VB?

Thanks
Amul

[Suva2001]

Bumping this thread up in light of the RFEs EB3 I receiving. Any guesses as to what would be the PD movements in the next VB?

Thanks
Amul

Same question from me.

[Suva2001]

Same question from me.

We are tracking RFEs received by EB3-I people with PDs up to Dec, 2004 in the document below. Any idea on how much movement we can expect in Sep visa bulletin for EB3-I by looking at the document.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?pli=1#gid=0

Thanks
Suva

[krishn]

24Mar2k4 PD here, with TSC, got rfe updt on 7/8.

[amulchandra]

Thanks for the heads up.

Also of note is that EB3 China retrogressed over 7 years from 01SEP11 to 01JUN04 (the same as EB3-India and EB3 Philippines(who were Unavailable in July)):



EB3-ROW and EB3 Mexico advance 3.5 months to 15JUL15.

EB2 China advanced 2.5 months to 15DEC13.

YT and Spec,

Can you please express your thoughts on EB3 I movement? TSC and NSC are issuing RFEs to PDs until Dec 2004. Do you think it will move to at least Dec 2004 in the next bulletin?

After a long time EB3 I is seeing a ray of sun shine. Hope good days are ahead.

[CleanSock]

Spec, does this mean that whatever FA EB3 India is going to get in the last quarter will be shared by other countries too since all of them are retrogressed equally?

Thanks for the heads up.

Also of note is that EB3 China retrogressed over 7 years from 01SEP11 to 01JUN04 (the same as EB3-India and EB3 Philippines(who were Unavailable in July)):



EB3-ROW and EB3 Mexico advance 3.5 months to 15JUL15.

EB2 China advanced 2.5 months to 15DEC13.