EB3 Predictions & Calculations

[imdeng]

Spec/Q - Based on my cursory reading, it seems about 10 years back there was a severe nursing shortage. In response, nursing schools ramped up enrollments and there is hardly any shortage at the moment. The current demand supply situation is expected to stay stable for at least a few years - so I wouldn't expect EB3P to pick up too much.

Long term forecasts though predict another nursing shortage just on the horizon because of Obamacare (mainly because of Medicaid expansion) and general aging of the population. Although I feel that nursing schools are going on be on top of that game this time after falling behind last time.

[imdeng]

Yup - How crazy is this! Considering that the pace picked up this VB, I guess dates will cross Oct'12 in the next VB. Then say 4 months at a time - and voilà - by summer 2015 EB3ROW is current.

it's a pretty good year for EB3ROW and to some extent EB3I later in the year

EB3ROW is just 18 Months from being technically 'current'

[amulchandra]

to Amul:

Yes it is still early to know the specifics, it will depend on number of factors:
1-how many visas are available for EB3 this year
2-how many demand EB3ROW will generate

i'm estimating the EB3ROW demand for this year to be ~22000, from that definitely not all of that will get approve this year so the demand could be less than that.

so you are looking anywhere from 2000 to 5000 SO this year if i take a blind shot on this.

Thanks migo. Hopefully 2016 will be the year of freedom for me.

[Spectator]

Spec/Q - Based on my cursory reading, it seems about 10 years back there was a severe nursing shortage. In response, nursing schools ramped up enrollments and there is hardly any shortage at the moment. The current demand supply situation is expected to stay stable for at least a few years - so I wouldn't expect EB3P to pick up too much.

Long term forecasts though predict another nursing shortage just on the horizon because of Obamacare (mainly because of Medicaid expansion) and general aging of the population. Although I feel that nursing schools are going on be on top of that game this time after falling behind last time.

There have been some excellent reasons put forward (by both Q and yourself) as to why the EB3-P demand will remain relatively low.

Even I am not saying it will be an instant increase.

Despite that, for several reasons, I do believe the numbers will rise again. I am suggesting it will be a lull, rather than a permanent situation. Here's a few off the top of my head:

RN and PT are still listed under Schedule A for occupations that have a shortage. I concede that may be due to government sloth, but the rising wages suggests that an equilibrium between demand and supply has not been reached.

Schedule A occupations require no PERM and no test as to whether there are sufficient American workers willing and able to take up the position. American workers may not be willing to take up the positions where the greatest shortages are. Immigrants have traditionally been more flexible in that regard.

Training to be a nurse in the USA is a very expensive proposition and the expected wages probably reflect that. Recently, the parents of a nurse who died aged 27, were saddled with her $200k remaining student loans because they had cosigned for them.

There is still a significant "pull" for people to immigrate to the USA from the Philippines.

On the other hand, it is indisputable that there has been significant demand destruction post 2007 PD. As mentioned previously, this may be due to lack of a continuing job offer and simply pure attrition from having to wait so long. Life goes on and other opportunities present themselves and situations change.

We'll see, but I don't think we have seen the last of EB3-P. I admit it is "gut feel" rather than evidence based. As the "prosecution", you can make a much better case at present.

[freshoftheboat?]

I am very excited that the VB moved by months. I just hope that it moves by another 8 more months in next visa bulletin so that like most people my date becomes current and we can file 485.

(1) Interms of getting AP and EAD, when does that happen and how long can that take from when you file I-485. Just looking for an average time frame. I want to change jobs so I was thinking of moving to EAD (through spouse) to look for job. My GC will take forever, coz company just refiled labor as job role changed 2 months ago, so its useless to depend on my own. It was a bad move.

(2) How long does it take to receive GC once you file 485?

I am not sure of the steps and was wondering if someone can help me figure this out

[imdeng]

EAD/AP in 60-90 days after 485 receipt. GC in 4-6 months after 485 receipt unless there is some RFE. Numbers are ballpark.

I am very excited that the VB moved by months. I just hope that it moves by another 8 more months in next visa bulletin so that like most people my date becomes current and we can file 485.

(1) Interms of getting AP and EAD, when does that happen and how long can that take from when you file I-485. Just looking for an average time frame. I want to change jobs so I was thinking of moving to EAD (through spouse) to look for job. My GC will take forever, coz company just refiled labor as job role changed 2 months ago, so its useless to depend on my own. It was a bad move.

(2) How long does it take to receive GC once you file 485?

I am not sure of the steps and was wondering if someone can help me figure this out

[freshoftheboat?]

I have a q regarding medical. I found a doctor however he is charging additional money for pretty much everything including tb and syphilis ($100), vaccinations ( range $50-$150)and basic charges for filling out form is $150.
I have gotten all vaccinations and titers done thru my pcp earlier this year.

(1) I am wondering if I can also get the tb, syphilis done thru my pcp and get reports from him itself. This way I can take everything to the uscis Doc so he can sign off after he does basic physical. Does that make sense or wil the doc redo tb and syphils?

(2)Also what is communal diseases a/b- titer or injection. Is that something my pcp can do as well and provide evidence? I tried to find info in many forums but can't pertaining to a/b.

My pcp is really nice and helpful and is right next door so I'd rather take all reports from him itself.

Will appreciate any help.

[imdeng]

First of all - you should shop around. Usually the basic fee for Civil Surgeon includes the physical, TB and Syphilis. You can get the rest of the immunization from anywhere you wish including your PCP. If your PCP is willing to do TB/Syphilis then you can get them from him/her too. The Civil Surgeon will accept the test results from your PCP.

The typical cost is $200+Any Immunizations a-la-carte in my side of the world.

I have a q regarding medical. I found a doctor however he is charging additional money for pretty much everything including tb and syphilis ($100), vaccinations ( range $50-$150)and basic charges for filling out form is $150.
I have gotten all vaccinations and titers done thru my pcp earlier this year.

(1) I am wondering if I can also get the tb, syphilis done thru my pcp and get reports from him itself. This way I can take everything to the uscis Doc so he can sign off after he does basic physical. Does that make sense or wil the doc redo tb and syphils?

(2)Also what is communal diseases a/b- titer or injection. Is that something my pcp can do as well and provide evidence? I tried to find info in many forums but can't pertaining to a/b.

My pcp is really nice and helpful and is right next door so I'd rather take all reports from him itself.

Will appreciate any help.

[freshoftheboat?]

Inventory data got released - around 10,200 applications till 3 oct 14. Seems like it is good news for a lot of us who are hanging to get our apps in

[freshoftheboat?]

What do gurus think abt upcoming visa bulletin.. Will appreciate the input

[migo79]

great move for EB3 ROW
now EB3 ROW is just ~6 month away from being current, good news for everyone.

[mk2007]

Hi Migo79,
are your views on FA spillover to EB3I still tyhe same or is there any positive change as far as spill over guesstimate is concerned?
I am in the same boat as Amul...I am EB3-I March 06.

to Amul:

Yes it is still early to know the specifics, it will depend on number of factors:
1-how many visas are available for EB3 this year
2-how many demand EB3ROW will generate

i'm estimating the EB3ROW demand for this year to be ~22000, from that definitely not all of that will get approve this year so the demand could be less than that.

so you are looking anywhere from 2000 to 5000 SO this year if i take a blind shot on this.

[krishn]

great move for EB3 ROW
Now EB3 ROW is just ~6 month away from being current, good news for everyone.

Gurus,

what is the PERM volume for eb3 row for fy13 and fy14? will there be spill over to eb3I this year ?

When is the next inventory report coming out?

Thanks

[migo79]

Hi Krishn,
there is nothing changed in terms of either numbers or trends, they remain the same so previous numbers are still correct.

there will be a spillover this year, how many will basically depend on the approvable rate for EB3 ROW.
next inventory is JAN which releases in Feb i guess, and it should the one that give indications on how things might be going this year.

so the horizontal spillover this year should be modest to decent while in FY16 I expect a huge spillover to EB3I with possibility to clear most of the backlog.

[migo79]

Hi Madhuri,
previous post has the answers

Thanks.

[amulchandra]

I am wondering how EB3 I 's cut off date progressed to Dec 15 2003 when the number of pending applications for 2003 is 2513 which is almost an year's worth of Visa Numbers. Are the numbers in the inventory report much more than what the actual demand is?

[migo79]

yes the inventory is much higher than actual demand
there are couple of posts about the numbers in the forum

[skpanda]

wonder why they stopped publishing the demand data?

[amulchandra]

yes the inventory is much higher than actual demand
there are couple of posts about the numbers in the forum

Thanks migo

[gcq]

I am wondering how EB3 I 's cut off date progressed to Dec 15 2003 when the number of pending applications for 2003 is 2513 which is almost an year's worth of Visa Numbers. Are the numbers in the inventory report much more than what the actual demand is?

Could it be that EB2 porters are still in the inventory ?

[mk2007]

Thanks migo79

[krishn]

Could it be that EB2 porters are still in the inventory ?

In EB3-I 'would think that from 2k4 onwards most of the people would have ported than what is reported in the inventory. EB3-I folks who ever did change jobs must have definitely ported. Some (2k3 , 2k4)of them might have abandoned and went back to booming career growth in home countries.

lets see, -if uscis figure out the way not to double count porters -what the uscis inventory reports in Jan -dos's demand data shows up or not :-?

[krishn]

VB released. EB3Row - 01JAN14 moved by 6 months, eb3 china - 01SEP11 6 months , eb3i moved by 1 week only to 22DEC03.

NO demand data or uscis I485-Inventory released yet.

[migo79]

EB3ROW now is technically current!
it will be interesting to watch next two bulletins.

[krishn]

EB3ROW now is technically current!
it will be interesting to watch next two bulletins.

so you mean EB3 ROW 2014jan PD guys are still either in 140 stage or perm stage ?