EB3 Predictions & Calculations

[migo79]

Spec:
If i read that correctly then he must make EB3ROW 'Current' max at the beginning of Q3 to make sure that there are no visa wasted.

[amulchandra]

Spec:
If i read that correctly then he must make EB3ROW 'Current' max at the beginning of Q3 to make sure that there are no visa wasted.

What does the visa bulletin mean for EB3 ROW and future SO to EB3 India. Since EB3 ROW moved by 6 months can we assume that USCIS approved all the approvable cases for EB3 Row and thus reduced the carryover for FY 2015. I am trying to see if EB3 I can receive any SO in FY 2015.


Thanks
Amul

[migo79]

Well I guess it is very early if we can speculate about horizontal SO

The 6 months movement of EB3 ROW are within my expectations , i expected if CO is conservative he would move the dates by 6 months.
He is only adding 866 new visas from APR11 to OCT11 + any pending cases previously.

I think Spec point is correct that he might not want to overload USCIS with EB3ROW and hence he is getting it slowly so that USCIS better manage the EB2I load.

from NOV when EB2I retrogress i think he will start moving EB3 ROW aggressively again.

our predictions howverer hasn't changed, i expect some SO this year, we would be in better position to accurately predict that when the dates move post OCT12, maybe we will have a glimpse when JAN inventory gets released depending on how far date will move post OCT12.

What does the visa bulletin mean for EB3 ROW and future SO to EB3 India. Since EB3 ROW moved by 6 months can we assume that USCIS approved all the approvable cases for EB3 Row and thus reduced the carryover for FY 2015. I am trying to see if EB3 I can receive any SO in FY 2015.


Thanks
Amul

[imdeng]

6 month at a time is not a bad idea. It keeps some little bit of FIFO alive. Next inventory will be an interesting one to see.

[migo79]

That's right i guess

if he kept moving in 6 months increment he might reach the higher mark at the correct time (first month of Q3)

6 month at a time is not a bad idea. It keeps some little bit of FIFO alive. Next inventory will be an interesting one to see.

[freshoftheboat?]

Hey migo and everyone- thanks for the insight. What do u think will happen in next months bulletin. 6 months movement again? My priority date is dec 12 eb3 row and I'm wondering if i should get my medical done in next 1-2 months. It is valid for 12 Months right?

I'm curious to know if I can become current by dec- jan timeframe or if I'm expecting too much.

Let me know ur thoughts

[imdeng]

Doing medicals take just a few days - so figure out a good facility, get your documentation in order - but no need to get them done until your dates are clear. They are indeed valid for a year.

Hey migo and everyone- thanks for the insight. What do u think will happen in next months bulletin. 6 months movement again? My priority date is dec 12 eb3 row and I'm wondering if i should get my medical done in next 1-2 months. It is valid for 12 Months right?

I'm curious to know if I can become current by dec- jan timeframe or if I'm expecting too much.

Let me know ur thoughts

[migo79]

Hi freshfromtheboat,

I think NOV bulletin for EB3ROW can move anywhere between 6 months to 1 year.
By Jan15 max I believe your PD will become current your expectation is very reasonable :-)

I guess CO has to move the dates post OCT12 max by DEC to build new demand but this is again up to CO strategy.

He can just move the dates on 6 months increment or can move dates in a year and then slow down for a month.

We can definitely do some predictions on the demand and supply but the visa movement is CO strategy to decide upon :-)

we might get a glimpse of what is going to do starting later in the month during the AILA call.

[migo79]

and the thing with the medical is that it is better to leave it until the very last moment, this is not because of date movement rather than you don't know when they will adjudicate your case after filing so you want to make sure that your medical is valid for the longer period possible.

like imdeng said, prepare everything and when the dates moved you will have around 3 weeks before applying so you will have plenty of time to get everything done :-)

[freshoftheboat?]

Thanks guys. Ya it will be great to know what u guys think when we get to know what CO is thinking.

[krishn]

09/11/2014: Good News for EB-3 Filipinos

According to the AILA, the demands for EB-3 visa numbers have been very low and may remain so, and its EB-3 cut date is likely to stay with the worldwide cut-off date.

can we assume that EB3Row may move at a much faster rate in next 3 - 5 months for inventory build up ?

[ninefalcon]

can we assume that EB3Row may move at a much faster rate in next 3 - 5 months for inventory build up ?

That seems to be the general consensus, right? 6 months perhaps.
Meanwhile, my EAD/AP has been pending for close to 130 days now; congressman's enquiry elicited the following response:
case has been with officer for the last 2 weeks; wait for 2-3 weeks more. Nebraska.
Unbelievable!!

[imdeng]

Welcome to the forum ninefalcon. 6 months at a time for EB3ROW/M/P seems to be the general idea. EB3C will lag a little and EB3I is well...

Wow - 130 days for EAD/AP is nuts! There is supposed to be a 90 day limit. Have you done all the usual followups - SRs, InfoPass etc.

That seems to be the general consensus, right? 6 months perhaps.
Meanwhile, my EAD/AP has been pending for close to 130 days now; congressman's enquiry elicited the following response:
case has been with officer for the last 2 weeks; wait for 2-3 weeks more. Nebraska.
Unbelievable!!

[ninefalcon]

Welcome to the forum ninefalcon. 6 months at a time for EB3ROW/M/P seems to be the general idea. EB3C will lag a little and EB3I is well...

Wow - 130 days for EAD/AP is nuts! There is supposed to be a 90 day limit. Have you done all the usual followups - SRs, InfoPass etc.

Thanks imdeng!

Yes, I have raised 2 SRs so far; didn't hear anything back about the first one; the second one was raised last week.
Haven't tried infopass yet, just directly went to congressman. This sort of delay in EAD/AP is truly unusual, I suppose!

[freshoftheboat?]

Hello- I read the mygcvisa blog and they do a very good job. Just saw their latest prediction which states that eb3 row is expected to move 4+ months in next visa Bulletin. I'm wondering if they r accurate. Last time around they predicted movement of 2-4 months only when the oct movement was 6 months. I wonder how they do their calculation becuase seems like they r being conservative with that they are stating. Any comments?

[freshoftheboat?]

Also their calculator states that my priority date of
Dec 12 eb3 row is expected to be current in sept 16. Wonder why

[migo79]

Hi

The predictions remain predictions, i think only CO would have a definitive answer because he has choose various strategy, but i guess next movement would be from 6 month to 1 year for EB3 ROW. again depend on what CO going to do.

eventually the dates for EB3ROW would be pushed past OCT12 on DEC/JAN visa bulletin.

[imdeng]

They don't have any special insights. They are guessing just as rest of us are. I would bet that the median of the guesses in this forum will turn out to be better than their guess.

In any event, you will be current within FY15, probably in next few months. So just hold on and enjoy the ride. Sept 2016 is way too pessimistic for you.

Also their calculator states that my priority date of
Dec 12 eb3 row is expected to be current in sept 16. Wonder why

[migo79]

I would say too unrealistic instead of too Pessimistic

They don't have any special insights. They are guessing just as rest of us are. I would bet that the median of the guesses in this forum will turn out to be better than their guess.

In any event, you will be current within FY15, probably in next few months. So just hold on and enjoy the ride. Sept 2016 is way too pessimistic for you.

[freshoftheboat?]

Thank you guys! I think I've driven you guys insane with my questions...so I am just going to sit tight and not think too much about it.

I am just a little worried as my company laid off so many people including engineers from my team in the last few months that's its been total insanity and very unpredictable at work. I've been trying to get out but 80% (trust me I've calculated it in excel sheet) of companies end up saying no because they will need to sponsor H1B and GC and its costs them money, and time and most mid-small sizes companies don't have a clue.

It would be nice to get onto my spouses EAD so at least I don't have to pursue the company to do all H1b/GC.

I had gotten my I-140 approved with priority date 03/13 but promotion happened causing major change in description of job that the company had to restart my PERM again just recently...so for me to get GC based on my application will take forever as PERM is taking 6 months.

Weird dilemma.

Thanks for the motivation and positive postings. Are most of you GC holders via EB3 row?

[migo79]

That's a kind of situation that is unpredictable
all i say is best of luck, your PD is within reach very few months from now, but you have to wait until you get your PERM approved and I140 approved, this process typically takes a year long.

best of luck again :-)

[GC2k13]

Hello Gurus, I am new the forum. Just wnted to get some predictions on what you think on how the next few months would process for EB3 rest of the world.
my pd is july 19,2013 i know its only been a year i have my i-40 approved and waiting to file 485 . I have my h1b valid for anther 2 years and wanted to travel sometime next year..but ill need stamping wasnt sure if its worth the wait or shalli take the risk and go for restamping.

thank you much.

[qesehmk]

GC2k13 welcome to forum. If your company is fortune 1000 and the job is well paying - I wouldn't worry about stamping and travel. If you are jittery about stamping it in your home country - you can stamp in ANY other country including canada and mexico.

I do think that for EB3ROW the dates should reach 2013 within one year. Whether it will happen in 3 months - 6 months or 9 months - I can't say. I can definitely say though that EB3ROW should now move pretty soon. I was surprised why it didn't move in Oct bulletin. I am confident it will move in next 2 months.

Hello Gurus, I am new the forum. Just wnted to get some predictions on what you think on how the next few months would process for EB3 rest of the world.
my pd is july 19,2013 i know its only been a year i have my i-40 approved and waiting to file 485 . I have my h1b valid for anther 2 years and wanted to travel sometime next year..but ill need stamping wasnt sure if its worth the wait or shalli take the risk and go for restamping.

thank you much.

[migo79]

Q:
you mean you surprised why it didn't move post OCT12 in OCT bulletin?
Because it moved 6 month which is quite low end expectation :-)

[qesehmk]

Q:
you mean you surprised why it didn't move post OCT12 in OCT bulletin?
Because it moved 6 month which is quite low end expectation :-)

Yes I meant it should've bounced back to Oct 12 in this Oct bulletin. I am sure it will bounce to that level and more. At the least it should come to Oct 12 in 6 months max.