EB3 Predictions & Calculations

[krishn]

No movement in dates for EB3I and EB3Row ? thought that EB3Row will move couple of months and eb3I till dec.

its better to port/upgrade to EB2 if any of the EB3 guys are yet to file 485/yet to get EAD.

[amulchandra]

No movement in dates for EB3I and EB3Row ? thought that EB3Row will move couple of months and eb3I till dec.

its better to port/upgrade to EB2 if any of the EB3 guys are yet to file 485/yet to get EAD.

Stupid me! Every time I do the same thing. Expect something good for EB3 India when in reality nothing happens. I don't think there is going to be any relief for eb3 I in near future. Very frustrating!!

[qesehmk]

Stupid me! Every time I do the same thing. Expect something good for EB3 India when in reality nothing happens. I don't think there is going to be any relief for eb3 I in near future. Very frustrating!!

Amul,

You ask any Guru on this forum ... the answer is unequivocal. EB3I should port to EB2I. The only exception would be people who are within 6-9 month window of the date that is current today for EB3I. Everybody else ... move onto EB2I.

[rajasri]

Hi qesehmk,

My PD is 02/17/2004 EB3 India. When do you think my priority date will become current?

Thanks in advance

[imdeng]

Krishn - I don't think there was an expectation of movement in EB3ROW this FY. Only category showing promise was EB3P - and that did move forward quite a bit.

EB3I could have had a small movement - but if you see trackitt, there have been several approvals in last few weeks - so it was possible for EB3I to have finished its quota already. So as such there are no surprises in this VB.

No movement in dates for EB3I and EB3Row ? thought that EB3Row will move couple of months and eb3I till dec.

its better to port/upgrade to EB2 if any of the EB3 guys are yet to file 485/yet to get EAD.

[imdeng]

If you look at the inventory, Nov-03 to Feb-04 (both ends included) has demand of ~2900. So, just using the regular allocation, you have a very decent shot of getting through in 12+/-2 months from now. 2 months is for various contingencies.

Update: Could be earlier if CO releases EB3I quota early in the year. Although past evidence does not support that,

Hi qesehmk,

My PD is 02/17/2004 EB3 India. When do you think my priority date will become current?

Thanks in advance

[qesehmk]

Hi qesehmk,

My PD is 02/17/2004 EB3 India. When do you think my priority date will become current?

Thanks in advance

Rajasri,
Welcome to forum. Nov to Feb is barely 3 months. So you should definitely get it during 2015. The only question is whether it will be after Jun 2015 or can it be Oct-Dec 2014. I really do not know. But if you insist I would admit there is a 50% possibility that EB3I dates might move during Q1 itself to take advantage of the full year quota. See.. this prediction and all works at a macro level. But when it comes to micro level - there are so many unknowns of how USCIS DOS operate as well as variables for individual cases that it is hard to predict at micro level. I know my answer is not what you are looking for. But I hope it helps you at least 5%.

[imdeng]

Given the current situation, i.e EB3ROW is not C, there is no question that porting is a sensible idea unless you are only a few months away from EB3I date. However, if EB3ROW shows signs of getting close to C, then FY16 onwards, EB3I *can* get some horizontal spillover, reducing the pressure to port.

Amul,

You ask any Guru on this forum ... the answer is unequivocal. EB3I should port to EB2I. The only exception would be people who are within 6-9 month window of the date that is current today for EB3I. Everybody else ... move onto EB2I.

[Ramsen]

Stupid me! Every time I do the same thing. Expect something good for EB3 India when in reality nothing happens. I don't think there is going to be any relief for eb3 I in near future. Very frustrating!!

Expecting something is not stupid. But it is stupid if you do not even attempt to port to Eb2 when you have an option

[Spectator]

I was a little surprised that EB3-P moved another 10 months and now has the same COD as EB3-ROW.

That suggests the abandonment rate for EB3-P CP cases could be extremely high. The next NVC report as of November 1, 2014 should give some clue about that. It should have reduced considerably from the 33k reported for EB3-P last year.

It remains to be be seen whether EB3-P can retain the same COD as EB3-ROW when the ROW date moves forward again next FY.

[qesehmk]

I was a little surprised that EB3-P moved another 10 months and now has the same COD as EB3-ROW.

That suggests the abandonment rate for EB3-P CP cases could be extremely high.

Completely agree Spec. EB3P has been a puzzle for me this year and the only explanation is what you suggest above.

[imdeng]

From 01DEC06 in Sep 2013 to 01APR2011 in Sep 2014 -> 4 Years 4 Months movement in one FY for EB3P. On one hand it is very surprising and aggressive movement - but OTOH, it is following the same trajectory as EB3ROW just a little later. I would imagine EB3ROW/M/P will move together to the EB3ROW high water mark (01OCT2012) at least - and then it might diverge depending upon how much demand materializes. EB3C it seems is seeing some "downgrade porting" demand from EB2C - so it might have a tougher path ahead compared to EB3ROW.

I was a little surprised that EB3-P moved another 10 months and now has the same COD as EB3-ROW.

That suggests the abandonment rate for EB3-P CP cases could be extremely high. The next NVC report as of November 1, 2014 should give some clue about that. It should have reduced considerably from the 33k reported for EB3-P last year.

It remains to be be seen whether EB3-P can retain the same COD as EB3-ROW when the ROW date moves forward again next FY.

[migo79]

as most of the folks suggested, there was low expectations of any movement to EB3ROW, even the expectations if that happened it would've been just 2 to 3 months to prevent any Visa waste.
Well:
with final bulleting for14 released, I do expect(hoping) that there are no waste in this category

next month will be a new story with fresh Visa quota, the inventory is showing ~11000 which mean Q1 quota which i understand it is close to 7100 for ROW will be used to against the backlog
so by next month dates for ROW should move at least a year or maybe even back to OCT12, by Q2 when DOS/USCIS want to build a new inventory the dates will advance at a higher new rate.

IMHO (based on PERM data) i don't expect ROW to generate ~14000 demand beyond OCT12) for the next year so the possibility to become current is quite high, if EB3 ROW reach anywhere 1 year beyond the visa bulletin release month, this will be essentially a "current" state giving the time needed for PERM and I140 approval.

EB3I will likely get a chunk this year but the amount will depend on the demand generated by ROW when they move the dates again beyond OCT12.

[rajasri]

Rajasri,
Welcome to forum. Nov to Feb is barely 3 months. So you should definitely get it during 2015. The only question is whether it will be after Jun 2015 or can it be Oct-Dec 2014. I really do not know. But if you insist I would admit there is a 50% possibility that EB3I dates might move during Q1 itself to take advantage of the full year quota. See.. this prediction and all works at a macro level. But when it comes to micro level - there are so many unknowns of how USCIS DOS operate as well as variables for individual cases that it is hard to predict at micro level. I know my answer is not what you are looking for. But I hope it helps you at least 5%.

Thank you qesehmk,

I am assuming that you meant Jan2015 not Jun2015.

[qesehmk]

Thank you qesehmk,

I am assuming that you meant Jan2015 not Jun2015.

Sorry. I did mean Jun 2015. In fact I should've said July 2015. Jul-Aug-Sep i.e. Q4 of a USCIS year is when dates typically move farther. Although for EB3 that may not mean much given the lack of SOFAD for them. But in 2015 if EB3ROW becomes current then EB3I may get lucky.

[rajasri]

Sorry. I did mean Jun 2015. In fact I should've said July 2015. Jul-Aug-Sep i.e. Q4 of a USCIS year is when dates typically move farther. Although for EB3 that may not mean much given the lack of SOFAD for them. But in 2015 if EB3ROW becomes current then EB3I may get lucky.

Thank you qesehmk.

Sorry for the dumb question, typically for EB3 India does the movement takes place in Q1 or Q4 only and not much in Q2 and Q3?

[qesehmk]

Thank you qesehmk.

Sorry for the dumb question, typically for EB3 India does the movement takes place in Q1 or Q4 only and not much in Q2 and Q3?

This year the movement has been throughout year. Next year also I would expect the same. However - as I said if EB3I get lucky then Q4 could present some bonus.

[migo79]

Spec:

I didn't hear your take on EB3 after the release of the inventory data.
What do you think so far? anything changes? or do you this make sense

my calculation seems very favorable but i would definitely like to hear your feedback.

BTW: according to your excellent PERM breakdown as of Q3, it seems that we have 19580 Approved PERM with PD OCT12 to JAN14.
so calculating the 70:30 setup it is 5874 approved EB3 PERM for ROW for this period.

that's why i was saying that i don't expect this number of approved PERMs to generate a demand that can be suffice to use EB3 ROW quota next year.

lots of things in one post i know but it is always good idea to hear your feedback

BTW: I calculated the number of PERMS starting JAN08 to OCT12 which is the 5 year advancement EB3ROW did in the this and previous FY and this resulted to 29231 PERM which is well within your earlier predictions of the ~56000 demand EB3ROW generated past FY and this FY.

Thanks

[Spectator]

I think EB3-ROW will get fairly close to the number of visas available to them in FY2015.

There might be some FA to EB3-I.

[YTeleven]

Stupid me! Every time I do the same thing. Expect something good for EB3 India when in reality nothing happens. I don't think there is going to be any relief for eb3 I in near future. Very frustrating!!

No need to frustration, we already predicted that this will happen.
Please see my predictions back in May : http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...6298#post46298
Good days are ahead for EB3-I. You will see EB3-I CODs move past the EB2-I CODs in 2 years down the line.
Already I'm suggesting the new EB2-I filers to file it in EB3-I quota instead of EB2-I.

[migo79]

agreed with most of the parts, but i think the amount of FA to EB3I is unpredictable in FY15, it will all depend on the demand that can be generated by these 5874 EB3ROW PERM.
FY16 the situation should be much brighter for EB3I

[migo79]

speaking of Fall across, i was thinking of what happened if Pres. Obama issue an EO to reinterpret the existing visa law and remove derivatives from the numerical limits.
imagine what will happen, EB3I backlog will be cleared in just one year!!!
that will be candy for everyone

very simple solution that can help thousands of legal immigrants who love this country.

Let's hope for the best.

[amulchandra]

No need to frustration, we already predicted that this will happen.
Please see my predictions back in May : http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...6298#post46298
Good days are ahead for EB3-I. You will see EB3-I CODs move past the EB2-I CODs in 2 years down the line.
Already I'm suggesting the new EB2-I filers to file it in EB3-I quota instead of EB2-I.

Q, senram,YT,

Thank you very much for your replies. Porting is not an option for me at this point of time due various personal reasons - stable jobs for both myself and spouse,bought a home and kids studies etc... Do not want to disturb the current equilibrium.

YT, I hope your predictions come true as I do not expect that there will be any relief for legal immigrants via Executive order by Obama.

[qesehmk]

Q, senram,YT,

Thank you very much for your replies. Porting is not an option for me at this point of time due various personal reasons - stable jobs for both myself and spouse,bought a home and kids studies etc... Do not want to disturb the current equilibrium.

YT, I hope your predictions come true as I do not expect that there will be any relief for legal immigrants via Executive order by Obama.

Amul if you haven't already filed 485 then that's understandable. But if you have an are eligible for AC21 then you may want to consider porting.

[freshoftheboat?]

Amul if you haven't already filed 485 then that's understandable. But if you have an are eligible for AC21 then you may want to consider porting.

This thread is very interesting. I have a question and not sure who to consult so Im hoping that you guys could give me some guidance of when my priority date will become current.

My priority date is 12/12/2012 EB3 ROW. I recently got a job and my gc will be re-filed by the new company. I am wondering if it makes sense to move and restart my gc in EB3 again (company wont do EB2 ROW) or should I just stick it out with my current job and think about it next year once the GC comes through. When my GC was filed for first time it literally took over 1 year to get PERM and I-140. I don't want to miss the window for filing I-485 earlier especially when this posts seem to say that EB3 ROW dates can move forward in 1st quarter.

When do you guys feel that December 2012 will become current- first quarter or second quarter. I am truly thankful for gaining so much knowledge from you. Good job guys. For us immigrants, our jobs and travel become such a pain with visa issues.