EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[soggadu]

Depending on ur employment, the employer also pays certain taxes contribution for you, as well as vacation and health insurance premiums. Also ask lawyer if these can be included if u r falling short otherwise.

Meant to answer 10102007, sorry for quoting srimurthy. Cumbersome phone.

arre yaar... chaloo hum sab chandaa ikkata karke tere ko ek dum mast chum chum waali amazon kindle dilatien hein...kya bolta tu....199 tu pay kar baaki hum ikkata karlenge ;-)...

waise... my PD falls on 22 and i am little scary like all others who were on 8,15,22 etc....10/22/07...on the better side my lucky number is 22...so no worries...

[10102007]

You are definitely going to be on the right side of these scary dates in one bulletin or another. I Wish that you will be on the right side without ever being on the wrong side.

[nishant2200]

Current PERM processing times.

as per http://icert.doleta.gov/ it shows that Analyst Review which I think is the most common case, as May 2011. So does this mean there is a 3-4 month time period right now for PERM processing.

They also mention there: " If your application was filed more than 3 months prior to the month posted, you may contact our Helpdesk for a status on the application"

[waitingEB2]

My friend had this question. Any suggestion is highly appreciated.

My priority date became current based on the October Visa Bulletin, but my attorney says that because DOS ran out of visa numbers in September, we can't apply for GC until we hear anything further from them regarding new cut-off dates for October. Has anyone faced similar situation (i.e. priority date is current, but visa numbers unavailable)?

[gcoracle]

waitingEB2, he won't get the GC but he can file I485 (the final stage of GC) if he has not already filed.

[immitime]

Please see below.


1) USCIS Announces Use of Fiscal Year 2011 Employment-Based Visa Allocations



The Department of State has informed U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) that all employment-based immigrant visas have been distributed for fiscal year 2011. Every fiscal year (October 1st – September 30th), at least 140,000 employment-based immigrant visas are made available to qualified applicants who seek to immigrate based on an offer of employment to the principal applicant. Applicants should note that USCIS will continue accepting adjustment of status applications based on the September visa bulletin through the entire month of September.


http://content.govdelivery.com/bulle...SDHSCIS-12a828

[qesehmk]

Ability to file 485 is directly tied to the visa bulletin dates being current or not. Lack OR availability of visa numbers doesn't affect your ability to file 485.

Another thing is ... unlike labor and 140 ---- 485 is YOUR application. Employer owns labor and 140. But YOU own 485. So when the date is current just go ahead and file 485. If this lawyer can't do it for you .. find another or do it yourself.

My friend had this question. Any suggestion is highly appreciated.

My priority date became current based on the October Visa Bulletin, but my attorney says that because DOS ran out of visa numbers in September, we can't apply for GC until we hear anything further from them regarding new cut-off dates for October. Has anyone faced similar situation (i.e. priority date is current, but visa numbers unavailable)?

[soggadu]

Ability to file 485 is directly tied to the visa bulletin dates being current or not. Lack OR availability of visa numbers doesn't affect your ability to file 485.

Another thing is ... unlike labor and 140 ---- 485 is YOUR application. Employer owns labor and 140. But YOU own 485. So when the date is current just go ahead and file 485. If this lawyer can't do it for you .. find another or do it yourself.

Q...on this note... If i want to apply for my own 485 through some other lawyer... What kind of previous documentation is needed? Like a copy of 140 is all i have...Is that enuf?

[waitingEB2]

thanks a lot!

[evoori]

Q...on this note... If i want to apply for my own 485 through some other lawyer... What kind of previous documentation is needed? Like a copy of 140 is all i have...Is that enuf?

and Employment Verification Letter.. that is all from Employer..

[qesehmk]

soggadu I do not know specifics. But it should be straightforward since 485 by definition is owned by beneficiary. So the forms available on USCIS site should explain all supporting documents.

p,s, - another tidbit - In 485 stage your lawyer has to each time take your permission to represent you in front of USCIS - be it EAD or AP or any inquiry about 485 etc.

Q...on this note... If i want to apply for my own 485 through some other lawyer... What kind of previous documentation is needed? Like a copy of 140 is all i have...Is that enuf?

[imechanix]

If you are current in October,2011 bulletin and date retrogresses in Nov,2011 bulletin, You are still good as long as the application reaches the uscis center before November 01,2011.

MeraNoAayega & skpanda,

Thanks for the info. It's helpful.

[Monica12]

Friends, Spec has posted some great info again in " Facts and Data " section

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011

Thanks Spec, You Rock !!!!

[Spectator]

Friends, Spec has posted some great info again in " Facts and Data " section

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011

Thanks Spec, You Rock !!!!

Monica,

You're welcome and thanks for the appreciative comment.

I had to be "persuaded" to post the data. It is what the numbers say, but the assumptions are not proven. Call it an "educated guess" at best.

Please treat it as indicative only, with an increasing error margin.

[qesehmk]

Spec

Good going. I think the 2012 numbers and model is quite good. People will find tremendous value out of that.

The multi year model - you did good by putting health warning I agree that its very difficult to predict even one year... so multi year is something that should be used only as a general direction.

Again ... Great contribution!

Monica,

You're welcome and thanks for the appreciative comment.

I had to be "persuaded" to post the data. It is what the numbers say, but the assumptions are not proven. Call it an "educated guess" at best.

Please treat it as indicative only, with an increasing error margin.

[familyguy]

Thanks Spec, you are doing an amazing job for the community.. the information that you posted is very valuable

Monica,

You're welcome and thanks for the appreciative comment.

I had to be "persuaded" to post the data. It is what the numbers say, but the assumptions are not proven. Call it an "educated guess" at best.

Please treat it as indicative only, with an increasing error margin.

[mysati]

Monica,

You're welcome and thanks for the appreciative comment.

I had to be "persuaded" to post the data. It is what the numbers say, but the assumptions are not proven. Call it an "educated guess" at best.

Please treat it as indicative only, with an increasing error margin.

Thank you very much Spec! This post is very helpful.

[leo4ever]

Spec,

Cut off dates data is really impressive piece of work. It makes a lot easier to understand where i stand in the line. I have a quick question though....
Use used FY12 and FY13 (with and with out porting), can i know did you mean begin of FY or end of FY or you mean to say some time in FY. I dont want you to be specific, but out of curiosity as when we say FY (its an year). Hope you see where am coming from.

[soggadu]

Monica,

You're welcome and thanks for the appreciative comment.

I had to be "persuaded" to post the data. It is what the numbers say, but the assumptions are not proven. Call it an "educated guess" at best.

Please treat it as indicative only, with an increasing error margin.

spec...thanks for the info...couple of questions...what are the chances of getting 25K SOFAD for 2012 and what is your number for SOFAD we got for 2011?

[Spectator]

Spec,

Cut off dates data is really impressive piece of work. It makes a lot easier to understand where i stand in the line. I have a quick question though....
Use used FY12 and FY13 (with and with out porting), can i know did you mean begin of FY or end of FY or you mean to say some time in FY. I dont want you to be specific, but out of curiosity as when we say FY (its an year). Hope you see where am coming from.

Leo,

It is at the end of each FY because SOFAD, Porting etc are for the FY in question.

If it is not clear, I will edit the post. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.

[nishant2200]

There is a posting by OH Law Firm, on their breaking news area under title: 09/28/2011: USCIS Adjudication of Employment-Based Immigration Cases (I-140 + I-485) as Reflected in its July 2011 Trend and Volume of Processing Statistics

They are analyzing that USCIS has huge backlog (we already know), but also note that they are not pre-adjudicated 485s also alongwith they way they used to, and are falling behind on it, or not making much progress on it. example: a guy in EB2 ROW applies, he gives in 140 and 485 concurrent filing. While 140 is being processed, the 485 is already begun pre-adjudication process, and by the time 140 is approved, the 485 is already pre-adjudicated waiting for a visa number and 140 approval. But if this is not done, then after the 140 process, the 485 process majority chunk will take time, and lead to less SYA (same year approval).

I think all in all, if the above is true, it might be good for SOFAD. Also it kind of shows the need to take in fresh intake to have a big inventory of EB2 I/C early on, they really don't want situation of having to process huge amount of 485 in 3 months. How do you guys read it, let know.

[leo4ever]

Leo,

It is at the end of each FY because SOFAD, Porting etc are for the FY in question.

If it is not clear, I will edit the post. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.

Yes, now i understand. Since you mentioned porting i should have considered it as end of FY. Thanks for all your work.

[qesehmk]

A small public service announcement:

This thread will be closed tonight. From tomorrow onwards we will switch to the 2012 thread located at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ulations)-2012

TedddThat new thread will open late tonight.

Employment contracts are a state subject and are mostly governed by state law. They are fully enforceable in states like NY & NJ that is why most consulting companies like to have their offices here. In states like CA they are not even worth the paper they are written on.

Teddy, thanks. Really good info. Delware if I am not wrong is most business friendly. In such a small places there are far too many companies located.

[pch053]

Since we have reached the beginning of the new year, I will be curious to know if we have any new insights on how USCIS might approve I485's for the coming year. One possibility is the dates will move forward in the next couple of bulletins to fill up the buffer and then retrogress in Jan'12. The forward movement of the PDs will be again visible during the spillover season from April-May'12 onwards. I think for most of the PWMBs, it is unlikely that their I485 approval will happen in 2011 as the turnaround time for I485 approval is 3 - 4 months.

We still have 8K pending EB2-I/C cases (~6K up to July 15th) and anywhere between 1K - 2K cases with PD up to April'15 that hasn't been approved yet. In addition, there will be some EB3->EB2 porting cases. Adding all these, there are already around 10K+ cases that are pre-adjudicated and waiting for approval. My question is whether these cases (or at least a decent number of these cases) will be approved in the Fall quarter itself or during the spillover season. My hunch is most of these cases will be approved during the spillover season (April-May'12); else, USCIS needs to allocated twice the stipulated quota of 5.6K for EB2-I/C in the Fall quarter itself.

Look forward to any feedback on this!

[bieber]

Great thread
kudos to Q and all other brothers and sisters, hope next year thread will bring more approvals