EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[Monica12]

All right, thanks folks. leo, did u manage to find ur I-20, if not what did you do. Anyone else also, if u know?

It never ends!

Nishant, you can try getting the I-20s from your school. They usually have an international students department and they might still have the copies. It's worth a try.
You can also try getting them from your old lawyer if you had one at the time( usually when we were students, most of us didn't have a lawyer and we had the school deal with all this). If you had a lawyer when you applied for H-1 B for the first time, that lawyer might have them too ( they would have certainly asked for the I-20 then )
Overall, don't lose any sleep over I-20s. There are many people who didn't submit them and didn't have a problem

[qblogfan]

The last, but the most important thing is that both China and India are over populated and have very limited resrouces and it's good to move more people here to lower the pressure on their eco system. There are much more resources in USA, Australia and Canada. I think both countries should encourage more people to immigrate to these countries. There are plenty of smart people staying in China and India and brain drain is not a concern.

With due respect to you, I would not be reading too much in to these TOI articles. There would always be few people who want to go back because of better opportunities. There would be few people who would go back because they have lost the jobs or company sends them back. There would be few who go back for miscellaneous reasons.

Overall, my general feeling is that, once people come to US, it becomes difficult for them to go back. I have known many people who had lost their jobs and even took low paying jobs just because those jobs allowed them to stay here. Meanwhile, they kept applying for better jobs. This country has too many good factors that makes any person think ten times before going back to India.

I love India dearly and no offense against my country or countrymen, but there are still many huge problems in India that country has to overcome. Rampant corruption, Reservation Quotas, Red Tapism and Bureaucracy are some of them. In general, many people would not be encouraged to go back until they really think the environment is conducive. They will only go back if they really want to or they have to. Apart from factors like improved standard of living, high earning potential, better education system from college level and onwards, better quality of life, urge to support their family, exposure to better institutions and technology etc., many people have come to US from India either because they are tired of facing those problems in their daily lives or they don't want to face those problems in their daily lives. Overall, I believe the number of people going back would remain low until conditions in India improve significantly.

TOI has published similar articles in the past also on the same line. But the reverse brain drain has not happened to a great extent yet as they predicted. In fact, the number of Indian students studying is USA is rising each year.

"The US receives more Indian students than any other country in the world overtaking China in year 2001.The number of students studying in USA has gone up 94,563 to 103,260 in year 2010-11. Most of the students choose either east coast or mid-west as their destination in US."

This is a direct quotation from Wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_students_abroad

OMG, I just realized that I just delivered a long lecture on this. I will sign-off for now. Have a good coming week to all.

P.S: BTW, TOI sucks. I had to watch the entire advertisement without even getting the option of cancelling it.

[MeraNoAayega]

http://immigrationroad.com/green-car...-checklist.php

These guys do mention some law firms ask for all I-20 and all I-94 etc.

Since my lawyer didn't ask nor have I heard any of my acquaintances who have already filed talk about I-20 will not panic. But yes, one more pain in the behind. Reward for actually studying here and hanging around more than decade.

You are kidding me right... All I-94's.... I just have the latest one that is attached to my passport...... Why do they need the old ones...???

[rinku1112]

All right, thanks folks. leo, did u manage to find ur I-20, if not what did you do. Anyone else also, if u know?

It never ends!

Nishant,

I am not sure, you will like to hear this, but my lawyer asked me to submit any copies of I-20s and OPT/EADs from my student life a well. I am not sure this is something that is sent to USCIS, but more for the lawyer to check if there are any inadvertent issues or gaps in status during status changes from F1->OPT->H1 etc...

I had to search through a couple sacks full of documents from an earlier era and luckily found a photocopy each of my old I-20 and OPT/EAD cards. I have no idea where the originals are, but this sufficed for the lawyer.

Best of luck.

[10102007]

Hi Q & other gurus,
I have been receiving a part of my pay as per diem. I believe the amount after subtracting the per diem amount is better than what is filed in my LCA (have to check with the lawyer though). Will per-diem pose a problem in the GC process ? Now that I'm so close, all these anxiety triggering questions are popping up.

Your responses are greatly appreciated.

Thanks

[Monica12]

You are kidding me right... All I-94's.... I just have the latest one that is attached to my passport...... Why do they need the old ones...???

You dont need old I-94s. I have dealt with many lawyers over the yrs and they all asked only for the latest i-94 attached to your passport. This will suffice.
There are some lawyers who ask for all I-94s which in my opinion are not needed.

[rahil1]

My Attorney asked for all the I 20's. With two schools and two Masters degrees, I had a bunch of them. He said he needed all as well as OPT card.This was back in 2007.
This time as I am applying for my wife, he asked for all her I-20's and opt card. I scanned them all last night.

[nishant2200]

Thanks guys. Your last line is true. I have been calling folks I know and none of them remember searching for and supplying I-20. But it's true, based on leo, and also google search, that some people have been unlucky enough to have been asked for it. It seems to me that this might be to establish that you have been in status, since the 485 is for Adjustment of Status, which is valid only if you have never violated status. Ideally, the USCIS, DOS, DHS, CBP, any such agency should be able to find your entire A-Z history from just the fingerprint, or the SSN, or A number etc, seems like you have to be really unlucky or some special trigger which we don't know of to be asked for the I-20 specifically.

Now, my research so far:
- I did two courses of engineering at same university. I have my second I-20, and it has a SEVIS barcode and number, which I am guessing should be enough. I also have a copy of my second I-94 which was obtained when I went to India in summer vacation after first two semesters. Also for the first time ever entered USA, the old passport contains the stamp on Port of entry, as well as seems to me, the immigration officer for some reason, has also written the I-94 number on the passport next to the stamp. For my first H1, the lawyer I see has supplied the second I-20, and the second I-94, and the EAD (OPT) card copy.
- I have same lawyer since I have never changed job, and he always provides me entire application packet copy, so I have the entire application packet (sans company financials documents etc), for first H1, second H1, third H1 (extension of 3 years), PERM labor, 140 application packet. These packets together have copies of all my visa stamps and my I-94s except as said above the first one.
- It seems to me all he needs in the end now for 485 is a universal set of all the documents he has for all the above applications.
- I have also contacted the international visa services office of the university, and asked them if they have my first I-20 also just in case. I will update when I get further ahead on this. I have also asked them about health records. Let's see.

Now to drop off kid to school after convincing to brush teeth and have something to eat, entire house is in turmoil right now

Nishant, you can try getting the I-20s from your school. They usually have an international students department and they might still have the copies. It's worth a try.
You can also try getting them from your old lawyer if you had one at the time( usually when we were students, most of us didn't have a lawyer and we had the school deal with all this). If you had a lawyer when you applied for H-1 B for the first time, that lawyer might have them too ( they would have certainly asked for the I-20 then )
Overall, don't lose any sleep over I-20s. There are many people who didn't submit them and didn't have a problem

[superdesi2100]

My attorney had asked for I-20 when I filed I-485 in 2007. The reason - one of the requirements of I-485 processing is that you must prove that your stay in United States has been legal. I-20 is part of proving your legal stay during your student visa. I was also told that if you still have the passport with the expired Student Visa, it will work in lieu of the I-20. I did not have I-20 (couldn't find it - I found it now though) and I gave the attorney a copy of my passport, which has the expired student visa. So far I have not been asked to provide a copy of I-20.

[qesehmk]

Looks like its a good idea to have I-20 handy - if for nothing else - to prove lawful presence. I must admit I must be quite an exception - so forget my experience.

I remember there was also a scandal in some california university where students were without I-20 or something. I wonder if that would also drive future scrutiny of I-20s for due diligence during GC process.

So as I said .. better safe that sorry. If you were a student then keep I-20 accessible.

My attorney had asked for I-20 when I filed I-485 in 2007. The reason - one of the requirements of I-485 processing is that you must prove that your stay in United States has been legal. I-20 is part of proving your legal stay during your student visa. I was also told that if you still have the passport with the expired Student Visa, it will work in lieu of the I-20. I did not have I-20 (couldn't find it - I found it now though) and I gave the attorney a copy of my passport, which has the expired student visa. So far I have not been asked to provide a copy of I-20.

[qblogfan]

Sorry for my late reply.

I wrote: A copy of approved I140 and PERM documents.

If you have I140 receipt number, you can list it on the form for their convenience.

You will get a CD with more than 30 pages of files. File it as soon as possible because you need to wait for 6 months.

Hi qblogfan! I am in process of entering information on G-639 for FOIA purposes. Can you please tell me what all sections you filled and what did you write in section 4. This will be a great help.
Sorry moderators/ admins about posting a off-topic post.

[nishant2200]

My attorney had asked for I-20 when I filed I-485 in 2007. The reason - one of the requirements of I-485 processing is that you must prove that your stay in United States has been legal. I-20 is part of proving your legal stay during your student visa. I was also told that if you still have the passport with the expired Student Visa, it will work in lieu of the I-20. I did not have I-20 (couldn't find it - I found it now though) and I gave the attorney a copy of my passport, which has the expired student visa. So far I have not been asked to provide a copy of I-20.

I just finished short phone call with attorney. I can confirm he said this same thing to me. Since he already had my second I-20 which has a SEVIS barcode and number, and also copies of my old passport, with the old F1 visa, as well as the immigration entry stamp, and also the University transcript which indicates all semesters and the courses taken, and the final degree obtained, and OPT (EAD) card copy, all this together is enough, and he never bothered to ask me for this whenever I ask what we will need further for 485. He used them to establish chain of status when doing the first H1. If no I-20, it's ok to just provide the F1 visa and all other mentioned above.

[srd4gc]

hmmm...good to know...now i gotto start digging for these docs...
i never made copies of my old I-94s...all i have is the latest I-94...any issue here???

[veni001]

I just finished short phone call with attorney. I can confirm he said this same thing to me. Since he already had my second I-20 which has a SEVIS barcode and number, and also copies of my old passport, with the old F1 visa, as well as the immigration entry stamp, and also the University transcript which indicates all semesters and the courses taken, and the final degree obtained, and OPT (EAD) card copy, all this together is enough, and he never bothered to ask me for this whenever I ask what we will need further for 485. He used them to establish chain of status when doing the first H1. If no I-20, it's ok to just provide the F1 visa and all other mentioned above.

Nishant,
That's what a good lawyer does, maintain a file for the client and keep updating it with incremental changes until he/she see the light!

[samudrala]

Hi Gurus,

Thank you for all your efforts and contributions to this famous site. I have the following questions. Could somebody answer these.

My PD is 06/06/2007 EB2I which will be current from October.

1. When would we expect GC if filled in Oct. 2011 for PWMB?
2. When can I expect my EAD/AP?

Thank you in advance

[donvar]

Looks like its a good idea to have I-20 handy - if for nothing else - to prove lawful presence. I must admit I must be quite an exception - so forget my experience.

One more trap to make things difficult.

[qesehmk]

friends.... it looks like more and more people like to engage in advocacy on this forum. And its a really good thing if there is appetite for it. Because of our limited strength and power we always were laser focused on bringing clarity to GC process. Even today if you look at our membership ... its hardly 1300 of which only 350 are active members ie. logged on with username password in last couple of weeks. Otherwise we have about 1000 unique visitors every day.

Anyway .. but if we continue to see interest in doing whatever little advocacy .... then it might be worthwhile for somebody to take a lead and put some thought process and structure around it. Because random efforts is better than no efforts. But structured efforts would certainly be more effective. Again... just a thought. Thanks for all those engaged in bringing some +ve change.

[leo07]

If you have been working for the same employer and attorney from your school days, the attorney will have the documentation from the first H1 petition days

[leo07]

I managed to find all I20s from my last school. Basically they had archived my entire application in off-campus location. It was nostalgic to go to school and look at all my papers/checks/recs from professors etc I think drive down the memory lane is worth it

All right, thanks folks. leo, did u manage to find ur I-20, if not what did you do. Anyone else also, if u know?

It never ends!

[imdeng]

I have been looking through H1B data to see if we can extract some wisdom from there regarding future movements of EB2 and EB2I in particular. This is based on the assumption that much of EB2 demand originates from H1B (am I correct in assuming this?) so H1B data can be one of the leading indicators of future EB2 movement.

1. Overall: H1B visa issued peaked in FY01 at 161.6K, reduced to a low of 107.2K in FY03, recovered to the post Y2K peak of 154.1K in FY07 and then slowed down to 129.5K in FY08, 110.4K in FY09 and 117.4K in FY10.

2. Distribution: H1B visas are getting concentrated in a few high volume countries. India used to account for 40%-45% of all H1B visas - that ratio is now 50%-55%. China's share has increased from 4%-5% to 8%-10%. South Korea from ~1% to ~3%. Philippines and Mexico have held steady at 2%-3%. Apart from these top five H1B consuming countries, the share of "Others" has come down from around 50% to just about 33% of total.

3. India: FY07 and FY08 were bumper years for India H1B - 83.5K and 72.5K! The recession brought the numbers down to 55.9K in FY09 and 58.7K in FY10 - these are still very high numbers.

What does it all mean:
1. India is going to be retrogressed for decades ceteris paribus. There is just way too much demand out there.
2. Per Country Limits will start to hamper South Korea soon. They have way too large F1 and H1B population in US - it will make them hit the 7% ceiling pretty soon.
3. China is in a better situation than India based on H1B data - but their H1B numbers are pretty high too - they will remain retrogressed mainly because India's high demand will prevent much SOFAD from going to them.
4. Mexico and Philippines will continue there current trend - they are not a threat to consume too many EB2 visas.
5. Since ROW is consuming less H1Bs, can we project that they will consume less EB visas as well?

One quick question:
1. China has huge numbers of students coming to US every year on F1 (100K+) compared to India (25K+). Are Chinese students going back in such large numbers that this numeric advantage in not showing up in H1B numbers. After all, one needs to shift from F1 to H1B for someone to work here and then get into EB queue.

All data are from NIV Excel Spreadsheet from this page: http://travel.state.gov/visa/statist...tats_4582.html

[iamdeb]

Agreed China has lot of students coming on F1. However unlike their Indian counterparts who join workforce on H1, they prefer to stay in academics by pursuing PhD, Post doc etc.

[mysati]

1. Overall: H1B visa issued peaked in FY01 at 161.6K, reduced to a low of 107.2K in FY03, recovered to the post Y2K peak of 154.1K in FY07 and then slowed down to 129.5K in FY08, 110.4K in FY09 and 117.4K in FY10.

As far as I know, from the late 90s until 2004, the max number of H1B visas issued, annually, was 165K which was brought down to 65K + 20K (Master's quota). I am not sure, if the numbers you quote above include extensions (which are not unique counts).

[nishant2200]

Trivia.

December 2004 VB:
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_1343.html

All was C, and in this one, they warned that EB3 is seeing very heavy demand and we may need to retrogress and they did in January 2005.

It almost feels surreal to see everything current in December 2004.

and then October 2005
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_2631.html

EB2 I/C became retrogressed. It's interesting, even EB1 I/C is retrogressed in this bulletin.

It was Current in September 2005 http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_2616.html

[cool_mj007]

I think you are just talking about the H1B visas under the cap. There are H1B visas outside of the cap as well for example Hospitals, Universities, Government offices, Non profit organizations are exempt from cap so any number of H1B can be allocated to them as long as they have a need and can justify the hiring.

As far as I know, from the late 90s until 2004, the max number of H1B visas issued, annually, was 165K which was brought down to 65K + 20K (Master's quota). I am not sure, if the numbers you quote above include extensions (which are not unique counts).

[imdeng]

Number of H1B issued is always higher than the H1B cap since non-profits like Universities are exempt from the cap and they are not counted in the 65K+20K limit. Although I do agree with you that the numbers may include renewals.

BTW the current year is proving really slow for H1B. Only 32K of 65K regular cap and 16K of 20K Masters cap has been consumed until 09/09/2011. Could it be that for the first time in forever we might not fill the H1B quota this year??

As far as I know, from the late 90s until 2004, the max number of H1B visas issued, annually, was 165K which was brought down to 65K + 20K (Master's quota). I am not sure, if the numbers you quote above include extensions (which are not unique counts).