EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[TeddyKoochu]

This I also had pointed earlier.

My feeling is they can't hold the line for a very long time because they have at least 8k pre-adudicated apps already, n these folks will be tormenting CIS for status.

Next two VB should have movement it seems exactly like FB. How much no one can read their mind, but 3 months at a time is a gut feeling.

End of 2007 is really needed I feel.

Nishant completely agree with you.

Following is the current situation for EB2 – India.
- Assumptions – 2011 SOFAD is ~ 30K.
- We saw towards the end of 2011 the date movement slowed down considerably and the agencies reported that there was a spurt in EB1 and EB2 ROW demand.
- This can be substantiated by the USCIS dashboard (USCIS: National Processing Volumes and Trends) in the months of May & June the number of I140 approvals was quite high, in fact 50% higher. This released a huge number of EB2 ROW and EB1 485’s in the next 2 months that is why the Aug bulletin movement was conservative and there was no movement in the September bulletin.
- Also note that the I140 backlog is 10K above the levels of last year so any further acceleration to clear this out in this year itself will diminish SOFAD from anywhere between 5-10K.
- The EB5 program is being marketed very aggressively this year this year only saw 6K SOFAD for EB5.
- The current demand till Jul 15th is ~ 12K.
- Porting would be in the 4-6K range.
- Assumption of using 30K SOFAD and 4K porting would be the best case scenario.
- Let’s assume a rough density of EB2 I/C to be 2.5K Per month.
- Best case scenario 30K SOFAD, 4K porting this means 14K new intake required. This will be possible only when the intake is done in the next 2 months if done later things will shift to the conservative side because there is potentially high EB2 ROW and EB1 demand.
- Worst case scenario 25K SOFAD 6K porting this means 7K new intake required.
Now in the best case scenario which is a long shot (Less than 10% chance) the dates will move till 15th Jan – 1st Feb. If the agencies want to keep a buffer they may even move to the end of March. This scenario it’s extremely optimistic but not impossible but I would urge everyone not to bank or hope for it and be disappointed later on.
Realistically another 10K additional intake should happen this should move the dates till Nov 2007 and have Dec 2007 as a buffer.
In the worst case which seems more likely for actual GC issuance this year only 7K intake is required this would move the dates to 01 Oct 2007 to 15-Oct 2007.
Following is my current belief the dates will move till the end of 2007 to take fresh intake, however by Sep 2011 GC issuance will stop somewhere in Oct 2007. This will be revised several times most important thing is how EB2 ROW and EB1 actually perform in the year, most importantly in the earlier quarters.

[druvraj]

Nishant completely agree with you.

Following is the current situation for EB2 – India.
- Assumptions – 2011 SOFAD is ~ 30K.
- We saw towards the end of 2011 the date movement slowed down considerably and the agencies reported that there was a spurt in EB1 and EB2 ROW demand.
- This can be substantiated by the USCIS dashboard (USCIS: National Processing Volumes and Trends) in the months of May & June the number of I140 approvals was quite high, in fact 50% higher. This released a huge number of EB2 ROW and EB1 485’s in the next 2 months that is why the Aug bulletin movement was conservative and there was no movement in the September bulletin.
- Also note that the I140 backlog is 10K above the levels of last year so any further acceleration to clear this out in this year itself will diminish SOFAD from anywhere between 5-10K.
- The EB5 program is being marketed very aggressively this year this year only saw 6K SOFAD for EB5.
- The current demand till Jul 15th is ~ 12K.
- Porting would be in the 4-6K range.
- Assumption of using 30K SOFAD and 4K porting would be the best case scenario.
- Let’s assume a rough density of EB2 I/C to be 2.5K Per month.
- Best case scenario 30K SOFAD, 4K porting this means 14K new intake required. This will be possible only when the intake is done in the next 2 months if done later things will shift to the conservative side because there is potentially high EB2 ROW and EB1 demand.
- Worst case scenario 25K SOFAD 6K porting this means 7K new intake required.
Now in the best case scenario which is a long shot (Less than 10% chance) the dates will move till 15th Jan – 1st Feb. If the agencies want to keep a buffer they may even move to the end of March. This scenario it’s extremely optimistic but not impossible but I would urge everyone not to bank or hope for it and be disappointed later on.
Realistically another 10K additional intake should happen this should move the dates till Nov 2007 and have Dec 2007 as a buffer.
In the worst case which seems more likely for actual GC issuance this year only 7K intake is required this would move the dates to 01 Oct 2007 to 15-Oct 2007.
Following is my current belief the dates will move till the end of 2007 to take fresh intake, however by Sep 2011 GC issuance will stop somewhere in Oct 2007. This will be revised several times most important thing is how EB2 ROW and EB1 actually perform in the year, most importantly in the earlier quarters.

Teddy,

I have always admired your analysis along with Q and others. According to Spec there is a need of 25K visa to reach March 1 2008 date. If we follow the trend observed in the last 4 years the SOFAD has been between 22K to 30K depending on whom you ask. So if USCIS and/or DOL are not gauging demand and actually generating demand I guess they should have an additional buffer of at least 3-6K. So in your most pessimistic demand of 7K additional visas I would add another 3-6K if not more to account for people who have given up. Again how much buffer uscis/dol is anybody guess because it is my understanding they do not want to waste visas.
This gives me a nice segway to note an observation, I always used to look forward to the months of June-sept for the sofad, but going forward I will be looking forward to oct-dec bulletins.
Have faith good things are coming.

[srd4gc]

Teddy, very nicely laid out...thx

[imdeng]

The numbers are not disappointing. This is from 07/07 till now. 93K EB2IC in 4 years is par for the course - less than 2K per months. The rate has been 2.5K per month for the PD period we are currently going through (mid to late 2007 ).

I am quite surprised about ONLY 12K EB2C after 07/07. If not for India claiming so much SOFAD, EB2C could have been current in a year or so - but because of EB2I, that is not going to happen for a long long time.

qblogfan : So disappointed to read this

Potentially 93 K from Aug 2007 to when?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

I have always admired your analysis along with Q and others. According to Spec there is a need of 25K visa to reach March 1 2008 date. If we follow the trend observed in the last 4 years the SOFAD has been between 22K to 30K depending on whom you ask. So if USCIS and/or DOL are not gauging demand and actually generating demand I guess they should have an additional buffer of at least 3-6K. So in your most pessimistic demand of 7K additional visas I would add another 3-6K if not more to account for people who have given up. Again how much buffer uscis/dol is anybody guess because it is my understanding they do not want to waste visas.
This gives me a nice segway to note an observation, I always used to look forward to the months of June-sept for the sofad, but going forward I will be looking forward to oct-dec bulletins.
Have faith good things are coming.

I agree with you on the people who have abandoned their applications, no one knows for sure how many people, but yes if I do it by saying 2K per month instead of 2.5K I believe it would be fair to assume 500 dropouts in the month or do you feel that it could be more. The 500 PM would fall in your range, let’s all hope for the best.

[gc_usa]

Teddy,

I have always admired your analysis along with Q and others. According to Spec there is a need of 25K visa to reach March 1 2008 date. If we follow the trend observed in the last 4 years the SOFAD has been between 22K to 30K depending on whom you ask. So if USCIS and/or DOL are not gauging demand and actually generating demand I guess they should have an additional buffer of at least 3-6K. So in your most pessimistic demand of 7K additional visas I would add another 3-6K if not more to account for people who have given up. Again how much buffer uscis/dol is anybody guess because it is my understanding they do not want to waste visas.
This gives me a nice segway to note an observation, I always used to look forward to the months of June-sept for the sofad, but going forward I will be looking forward to oct-dec bulletins.
Have faith good things are coming.

It is true that they don't want to waste visas and look bad when so much backlog. at the same time they may not want too much gate open so USCIS random approve I 485s. They can have at least 8k buffer like what they had this year from Sep to Oct and still they will be able to move on next oct - sep. I would say they will make intake of 35k - (12k on hand ) - 5k ( porting ) = 18k which should move date till Q1 2008.

When ? I guess sooner in next bulletin or dec bulletin.

Why ? If they keep doing small 3-4 months movement till Q2 , uscis will come up with some demand and it will be hard for them to satisfy them and uscis will force them to retro date.

In Nov they will move - Nov 2007 and in Dec they will move March 2008.

[Kanmani]

Nishant completely agree with you.

Following is the current situation for EB2 – India.
- Assumptions – 2011 SOFAD is ~ 30K.
- We saw towards the end of 2011 the date movement slowed down considerably and the agencies reported that there was a spurt in EB1 and EB2 ROW demand.
- This can be substantiated by the USCIS dashboard (USCIS: National Processing Volumes and Trends) in the months of May & June the number of I140 approvals was quite high, in fact 50% higher. This released a huge number of EB2 ROW and EB1 485’s in the next 2 months that is why the Aug bulletin movement was conservative and there was no movement in the September bulletin.
- Also note that the I140 backlog is 10K above the levels of last year so any further acceleration to clear this out in this year itself will diminish SOFAD from anywhere between 5-10K.
- The EB5 program is being marketed very aggressively this year this year only saw 6K SOFAD for EB5.
- The current demand till Jul 15th is ~ 12K.- Porting would be in the 4-6K range.
- Assumption of using 30K SOFAD and 4K porting would be the best case scenario.
- Let’s assume a rough density of EB2 I/C to be 2.5K Per month.
- Best case scenario 30K SOFAD, 4K porting this means 14K new intake required. This will be possible only when the intake is done in the next 2 months if done later things will shift to the conservative side because there is potentially high EB2 ROW and EB1 demand.
- Worst case scenario 25K SOFAD 6K porting this means 7K new intake required.
Now in the best case scenario which is a long shot (Less than 10% chance) the dates will move till 15th Jan – 1st Feb. If the agencies want to keep a buffer they may even move to the end of March. This scenario it’s extremely optimistic but not impossible but I would urge everyone not to bank or hope for it and be disappointed later on.
Realistically another 10K additional intake should happen this should move the dates till Nov 2007 and have Dec 2007 as a buffer.
In the worst case which seems more likely for actual GC issuance this year only 7K intake is required this would move the dates to 01 Oct 2007 to 15-Oct 2007.
Following is my current belief the dates will move till the end of 2007 to take fresh intake, however by Sep 2011 GC issuance will stop somewhere in Oct 2007. This will be revised several times most important thing is how EB2 ROW and EB1 actually perform in the year, most importantly in the earlier quarters.

Teddy I dont get the 12K demand upto July 15 07 . Can you pls explain?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy I dont get the 12K demand upto July 15 07 . Can you pls explain?

Current demand data shows 8.5K, we would expect 3.5K PWMB's who became current to file in Oct to make it 12K.

[suninphx]

I agree with you on the people who have abandoned their applications, no one knows for sure how many people, but yes if I do it by saying 2K per month instead of 2.5K I believe it would be fair to assume 500 dropouts in the month or do you feel that it could be more. The 500 PM would fall in your range, let’s all hope for the best.

Is it possible to put % of IT non IT PERMS? I believe at height of recession IT was least affected. Though I have 5-6 friends (my friends ...no friend of friend story here) in IT/NON-IT and went back during that period. Most of them do not have any intent to come back even if PD becomes current. And as i understand from them main reason for that is once you back back and work in BIG IT names in India you are generally put in managerial role and then coming back and hunting for job becomes difficult as you might loose touch with technology. )As far as I know there is much more demand for 'hands on' people than 'managers' in US.)
So it will be interesting to see how many actual filings will come out of 2008 PD.

[nishant2200]

I was co-incidentally just talking to some gurus about this, and this is portion of the email:

About the drop out rate or reduction factors etc, a thought comes to mind.

People who got in the July 2007 fiasco ride, got the cushion of EAD.
Other people could not.

If you don't have cushion of EAD, many folks would have faced
difficulties maintaining job profiles, H1 visa, especially more so
difficult for consulting jobs.

An example: you are having a hard time, no project, or no pay stubs or
proper tax history for sometime, your family member someone in India
gets diagnosed with some sickness, and if you go visit, your H1 is
going to be screwed up by consulate.

Another example: simlar dire straits and need H1 extension.

Another example: A person going great guns in Cisco gets laid off, he
can't just go work somewhere else because he has no EAD.

Another example: similar dire straits and you see yourself getting
nice job in India with leadership role in a good city, chance to
re-unite with family, and start life afresh.

Is it possible to put % of IT non IT PERMS? I believe at height of recession IT was least affected. Though I have 5-6 friends (my friends ...no friend of friend story here) in IT/NON-IT and went back during that period. Most of them do not have any intent to come back even if PD becomes current. And as i understand from them main reason for that is once you back back and work in BIG IT names in India you are generally put in managerial role and then coming back and hunting for job becomes difficult as you might loose touch with technology. )As far as I know there is much more demand for 'hands on' people than 'managers' in US.)
So it will be interesting to see how many actual filings will come out of 2008 PD.

[Spectator]

Current demand data shows 8.5K, we would expect 3.5K PWMB's who became current to file in Oct to make it 12K.

Teddy,

Current Demand Data shows 8,075, but that is all the way to the end of the backlog (August 15th ish).

To July 15 07 it is more like 6k because July is very dense.

In the worst case, PWMB to July 15 07 I think could be as high as 2.5k, although I believe it is probably nearer 2k, so I would say about 8k in total.

Adding on any cases with PD before April 15 07 still to be approved would raise this figure, but 12k seems a bit pessimistic.

If you mean the Backlog & PWMB to the end of the current backlog, then I would put that at about 11.5k.

[suninphx]

I was co-incidentally just talking to some gurus about this, and this is portion of the email:

About the drop out rate or reduction factors etc, a thought comes to mind.

People who got in the July 2007 fiasco ride, got the cushion of EAD.
Other people could not.

If you don't have cushion of EAD, many folks would have faced
difficulties maintaining job profiles, H1 visa, especially more so
difficult for consulting jobs.

An example: you are having a hard time, no project, or no pay stubs or
proper tax history for sometime, your family member someone in India
gets diagnosed with some sickness, and if you go visit, your H1 is
going to be screwed up by consulate.

Another example: simlar dire straits and need H1 extension.

Another example: A person going great guns in Cisco gets laid off, he
can't just go work somewhere else because he has no EAD.

Another example: similar dire straits and you see yourself getting
nice job in India with leadership role in a good city, chance to
re-unite with family, and start life afresh.

Agree.

EAD in hand was big differentiator.
Another point could be (I think this was mentioned earlier too) - even tough people managed to stay on H1 , they had change jobs ..starting PERM process all over

[Pedro Gonzales]

People who got in the July 2007 fiasco ride, got the cushion of EAD.
Other people could not.
If you don't have cushion of EAD, many folks would have faced
difficulties maintaining job profiles, H1 visa, especially more so
difficult for consulting jobs.

We should be able to get a handle on this drop off rate pretty soon, shouldn't we? We have an estimate of PWMBs for the April to July period calculated from PERM/I-140 figures. With the next demand data / inventory, we should know how many of these PWMBs actually apply for I485s. This will give us an accurate drop off rate for them. I can't think of any reason for the drop off rate for these PWMBs to be any different from the drop off rate of the post July 2007 PD crowd, at least for the August 2007 to July 2008 period. I think after that the recession had taken a hold and the drop off should already be reflected in lower PERM figures, so using the higher drop off rate would be double counting the effect.

So, I think our eyes should be on the Nov demand data released in early October, although it would be more accurate to look at the December demand data released in early November.

What do you guys think?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Current Demand Data shows 8,075, but that is all the way to the end of the backlog (August 15th ish).

To July 15 07 it is more like 6k because July is very dense.

In the worst case, PWMB to July 15 07 I think could be as high as 2.5k, although I believe it is probably nearer 2k, so I would say about 8k in total.

Adding on any cases with PD before April 15 07 still to be approved would raise this figure, but 12k seems a bit pessimistic.

If you mean the Backlog & PWMB to the end of the current backlog, then I would put that at about 11.5k.

Spec, Thanks Actually the idea was to baseline the current point. Theoretically by PD we are at 15th Jul. The demand data also includes Jul and Aug filers who are not current. The PWMB totals have been estimated to be ~ 5k. So if we make 15-AUG as our baseline then the total should be 8K + 5K = 13K. Please advise your thoughts on that. I agree that Jul is rather heavy.

[SmileBaba]

We don't want to get their secret information, but the fact is that the employer can refuse to provide any evidence of the completion of each step.

My employer didn't give me even one piece of paper as evidence of approval of PERM/140. I never got any copy of anything. When I ask, they always say it's company property and I don't have rights to ask for anything before 485.

Approved I140 is company's property and we are also their properties just like the slaves in 1800s. The employers put their feet on our face, but we can't argue or fight because our xxxxxxx is fasterned by GC. When we fight the employers with Kong Fu, our xxxxxx will be painful.

Hi qblogfan! I am in process of entering information on G-639 for FOIA purposes. Can you please tell me what all sections you filled and what did you write in section 4. This will be a great help.
Sorry moderators/ admins about posting a off-topic post.

[imdeng]

It will be interesting to see what the drop off rate is. We all have anecdotal evidence that this is at least material. I do agree that the drop off rate post 07/07 will be higher because of no EAD - we will know how high in a couple months. BTW - recession can even push up the PERM numbers since all the people who get laid off and join new jobs need to then go through the PERM process again.

We should be able to get a handle on this drop off rate pretty soon, shouldn't we? We have an estimate of PWMBs for the April to July period calculated from PERM/I-140 figures. With the next demand data / inventory, we should know how many of these PWMBs actually apply for I485s. This will give us an accurate drop off rate for them. I can't think of any reason for the drop off rate for these PWMBs to be any different from the drop off rate of the post July 2007 PD crowd, at least for the August 2007 to July 2008 period. I think after that the recession had taken a hold and the drop off should already be reflected in lower PERM figures, so using the higher drop off rate would be double counting the effect.

So, I think our eyes should be on the Nov demand data released in early October, although it would be more accurate to look at the December demand data released in early November.

What do you guys think?

[nishant2200]

Sounds reasonable, at least we can get some trend. btw the current PWMB estimate already assumes a drop-off, so thing to see would be is it even higher or lower. btw, it would be extremely sad right, first of all you missed the boat, and then had to go back also. heart-breaking.

We should be able to get a handle on this drop off rate pretty soon, shouldn't we? We have an estimate of PWMBs for the April to July period calculated from PERM/I-140 figures. With the next demand data / inventory, we should know how many of these PWMBs actually apply for I485s. This will give us an accurate drop off rate for them. I can't think of any reason for the drop off rate for these PWMBs to be any different from the drop off rate of the post July 2007 PD crowd, at least for the August 2007 to July 2008 period. I think after that the recession had taken a hold and the drop off should already be reflected in lower PERM figures, so using the higher drop off rate would be double counting the effect.

So, I think our eyes should be on the Nov demand data released in early October, although it would be more accurate to look at the December demand data released in early November.

What do you guys think?

[nishant2200]

Hi qblogfan! I am in process of entering information on G-639 for FOIA purposes. Can you please tell me what all sections you filled and what did you write in section 4. This will be a great help.
Sorry moderators/ admins about posting a off-topic post.

qblogfan will help you out as needed, but I just want to point out that today itself murthy has put this article:
http://murthy.com/news/n_foiare.html
about FOIA

good luck smilebaba, I hope you smile a lot

[sai999]

For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here.

***** Spec i bow to your feet on the effort your doing to immigration community ***** what a fantastic job and you are my hero on the calculations.along the side so may thanks to Q,Teddy (also great guru on calculations),Monica12 ,Venni,Soggadu and nishant2200 (*** these days i am not able to find any page with out your message ) ...keep going guys all the best those got current and good luck to those waiting to file 485

[nishant2200]

Sounds reasonable, at least we can get some trend. btw the current PWMB estimate already assumes a drop-off, so thing to see would be is it even higher or lower. btw, it would be extremely sad right, first of all you missed the boat, and then had to go back also. heart-breaking.

Oops, we cant see any trend immidiately as it will take long time to show up in demand data!

[soggadu]

All the bills floating right now are just political posturing - I don't think anything will get passed until we are out of the recession and unemployment drops. This bill, although, will greatly help EB2IC if it passes. I really have no hope of legislative relief, no faith in the legislative system (Congress/Presidency) to take up our cause - we are too insignificant in their plans.

The best option for us is to keep our noses clean, hold on to our jobs, keep renewing your H1B (thank you AC21!) and wait until your date becomes current. Meanwhile, forums like this provide us with a semblance of transparency in the process. I know I sound pessimistic but that's where I am.

BTW - I don't wish to get politics in the discussion - but seems like Republicans are more of a friend of legal employment based immigration than Democrats are. It sucks that Republicans are also against almost every other issues of priority for me. No that it matters - I don't have a vote anyways.

+1....cant agree more...

[Monica12]

All the bills floating right now are just political posturing - I don't think anything will get passed until we are out of the recession and unemployment drops. This bill, although, will greatly help EB2IC if it passes. I really have no hope of legislative relief, no faith in the legislative system (Congress/Presidency) to take up our cause - we are too insignificant in their plans.

The best option for us is to keep our noses clean, hold on to our jobs, keep renewing your H1B (thank you AC21!) and wait until your date becomes current. Meanwhile, forums like this provide us with a semblance of transparency in the process. I know I sound pessimistic but that's where I am.

BTW - I don't wish to get politics in the discussion - but seems like Republicans are more of a friend of legal employment based immigration than Democrats are. It sucks that Republicans are also against almost every other issues of priority for me. No that it matters - I don't have a vote anyways.

Completely agree. There have been so many of these bills proposed that have finally gone nowhere. The best thing for us is to keep going on with our lives and not pin up our hopes too much on these bills. While we should keep supporting and trying for these to be passed (very important, reminds me of a quote Q posted a few months back...about how important it is to do so) ...shouldn't rely on them being passed.

[Gclongwait]

Spec, Thanks Actually the idea was to baseline the current point. Theoretically by PD we are at 15th Jul. The demand data also includes Jul and Aug filers who are not current. The PWMB totals have been estimated to be ~ 5k. So if we make 15-AUG as our baseline then the total should be 8K + 5K = 13K. Please advise your thoughts on that. I agree that Jul is rather heavy.

I am not so sure of the I485 figures in USCIS I485 inventory. I am assuming that the inventory is the reason you say July is heavy. The reason is that I485 in July for some reason has nearly 3 times the no of EB2/EB3 I485 than any other month yet the perms (from Spec data)
Jul-07 - 1,871 ----- 523 ------ 176 ----- 26 ------- 5 --- 2,601
are the same as any other month.

If it was truly that much higher then this should have been reflected in the Perm. I am skeptical about how accurate that data is. I have a feeling in many cases I485 receipt date may have shown as priority date.

[Spectator]

I am not so sure of the I485 figures in USCIS I485 inventory. I am assuming that the inventory is the reason you say July is heavy. The reason is that I485 in July for some reason has nearly 3 times the no of EB2/EB3 I485 than any other month yet the perms (from Spec data)
Jul-07 - 1,871 ----- 523 ------ 176 ----- 26 ------- 5 --- 2,601
are the same as any other month.

If it was truly that much higher then this should have been reflected in the Perm. I am skeptical about how accurate that data is. I have a feeling in many cases I485 receipt date may have shown as priority date.

Gclongwait,

It is a good point. I agree it does look odd.

I don't know the answer, although in August 2007 many cases would have had a PD virtually identical to the RD, since large numbers of PERM were being approved in a few days.

The BIG difference is the number of EB2-C cases reported in the inventory for July (about 3x more than normal). That higher demand from EB2-C (for what is left of 2007) is reflected in the Demand Data.

On the other hand, the DOS Demand Data figures stack up well against the published USCIS Inventory.

Versus the reported 8,075 of the Demand Data for EB2-IC, the USCIS Inventory reports 8,225 broken down as follows :

PD --------------- No. -- China
April 15-30 ---- 1,078
May ------------ 1,588 ---- 519
June ----------- 1,819 ---- 545
July ----------- 3,319 -- 1,718
August ----------- 421

Total ---------- 8,225

I guess we will find out fairly soon.

[nishant2200]

***** Spec i bow to your feet on the effort your doing to immigration community ***** what a fantastic job and you are my hero on the calculations.along the side so may thanks to Q,Teddy (also great guru on calculations),Monica12 ,Venni,Soggadu and nishant2200 (*** these days i am not able to find any page with out your message ) ...keep going guys all the best those got current and good luck to those waiting to file 485

sai999, you are humble and very appreciative and honest person, I can see. Let me tell you, a person with these qualities will get the best in life. I got bit emotional reading your post. We have all noted your appreciation.

I sincerely hope you get a chance to file next FY.