I believe anyone within 2007 has a good chance of filing 485. GC issuance range could be around Oct - 2007. Its early days lets see the approval trend in Q1 2012.Originally Posted by sandeep11
I believe anyone within 2007 has a good chance of filing 485. GC issuance range could be around Oct - 2007. Its early days lets see the approval trend in Q1 2012.
Where is my 2009?
Things will move really fast once we cross Sep 2008, after that it may take a year to reach mid 2010 itself so 2009 is not on the mapWhere is my 2009?
T,
I understand that all these calculations post Aug 07 are based on the PERM and I140 data. But during the 2008/2009 period, a lot of body-shoppers came under the radar and most of them had to forcefully terminate the employees who are on bench. Also there were a lot of layoffs and whatever jobs up for grab did not want to hire H1Bs. Add to that the Banking & Auto sectors that got federal aid with a clause that they cannot hire H1Bs..... etc. As a result, there could be a few - if not significant number of PERM & I140s that were deserted.
Is there anyway to know how much of all this impacts these calculations?
You are right; this point has come up before as well. Right now atleast in the Oct bulletin we see that they are taking up new demand gradually. So hopefully the process itself will take care of these scenarios. Really no one knows how many people had to go back, the impact of the recession and memo's has been severe but our sample set is restricted to those who had filed a perm and 140. Now if the 140 is approved and even if the person went back they can come back and reclaim the PD. So lets go on this journey a year at a time, making projections that far with too many unknowns will not be accurate / realistic. The biggest unknown of all is that will the SOFAD momentum continue because if it diminishes the whole thing breaks down. Already we have seen that significant efforts are going on to pump up Eb5.
Monica,
I have posted this immigration info news letter few pages back.
Thanks Teddy.
A few years ago, the CIS Ombudsman in its annual report scolded USCIS for not tracking and processing Family-based applications which then resulted in visa-wastage as DOS did not move the dates far enough ahead.
Knowing this history, I would be surprised if DOS doesn't get aggressive in moving dates for EB2IC and then retrogressing if they have to. They have done so with family based F2 categories.
Now the question is how aggressive will they get. To be honest, I would rather have them move it steadily till they have 2 yrs worth of applications (roughly 60K - even then I won't be current) and then retrogress or make it 'U' for unavailable. And keep repeating every year so they always have 60K in the bank.
I appreciate USCIS's improved efficiency in processing I-485, but still it has no skills when it comes to managing/forcasting demand based on I-140 approvals - which is pathetic by the way.
I know this is wishful thinking and DOS and USCIS will still continue to amaze us with their erratic behavior but I just had to vent.
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Voted for Kiva. Personally I think helping these small/poor enterprenuers will create jobs that result in feeding multiple poor families while still maintaining their dignity!
kd2008, no harm in venting. Every now and then, I too see my cloud floating by. Qblogfan, I am trying to reduce weight, so that the cloud occupies my weight, you go ahead too
On a serious note, 60k sounds too good to be true for them to keep buffer. But hey, they can do anything, as can be witnessed from their date moving and openly claiming this is to gauge demand.
A difference vs the F2 categories pointed out for last FY might be that they already have many pre-adjudicated apps in until 15th August 2007 PDs, and since these dates would be current during the move forward, these folks would be contacting USCIS for GC, but they don't have number to provide. I really feel it's very tricky situation, and DOS would be best advised to quickly do big moves (BBTM) and retrogress back, rather than waiting patiently doing 2-3 months a time.
I think Mr.CO will use the same method he used on F2 last year.
I think he will keep moving the dates forward in Q1 and then retrogress in January.
The only question is how much demand he wants and how big steps he will move the future PDs.
kd2008, no harm in venting. Every now and then, I too see my cloud floating by. Qblogfan, I am trying to reduce weight, so that the cloud occupies my weight, you go ahead too
On a serious note, 60k sounds too good to be true for them to keep buffer. But hey, they can do anything, as can be witnessed from their date moving and openly claiming this is to gauge demand.
A difference vs the F2 categories pointed out for last FY might be that they already have many pre-adjudicated apps in until 15th August 2007 PDs, and since these dates would be current during the move forward, these folks would be contacting USCIS for GC, but they don't have number to provide. I really feel it's very tricky situation, and DOS would be best advised to quickly do big moves (BBTM) and retrogress back, rather than waiting patiently doing 2-3 months a time.
I agree with you Nishant, if DOS keeps on moving dates till January, infopasses with be flooded with requests when actually they cannot give visas.
Still i Don't understand one logic, if they need atleast 6-9 months for processing an 485 application why they dont take applications in the amount of 30k to 4k?. People have chance to filing EAD few months a head and uscis will not be pressurized. Apart from it they can monitor number of EB1 applications.
If they go by quarter wise, suppose if there is huge volume of EB1 application in last quarter, then probably all them will not be able to get their GC's or else some visas might even get wasted.
kd2008, no harm in venting. Every now and then, I too see my cloud floating by. Qblogfan, I am trying to reduce weight, so that the cloud occupies my weight, you go ahead too
On a serious note, 60k sounds too good to be true for them to keep buffer. But hey, they can do anything, as can be witnessed from their date moving and openly claiming this is to gauge demand.
A difference vs the F2 categories pointed out for last FY might be that they already have many pre-adjudicated apps in until 15th August 2007 PDs, and since these dates would be current during the move forward, these folks would be contacting USCIS for GC, but they don't have number to provide. I really feel it's very tricky situation, and DOS would be best advised to quickly do big moves (BBTM) and retrogress back, rather than waiting patiently doing 2-3 months a time.
For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here.Spec, we are all eagerly waiting but will be patient... Enjoy your vacation
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Oh Great ! Thanks Spec
after going through it.. All I can say is " BRAVO!" *clap clap*
Last edited by Monica12; 09-22-2011 at 11:39 AM.
If DOS does qtr spill over then they will have 5.6k ( regular IC quota ) + 2-3k spill over from Eb1 and 1.5k from EB5 , which should be enough to move date where ever they want in 2008. I personally believe that DOS will not go very tight in creating buffer. They will make at least 1.25 to 1.5 times than sofad for this year. because if they don't move date enough then uscis may waste visas, if they go too much further in 2008 then uscis may random approves cases and next year it will be hard to manage date for DOS.
If SOFAD was 25k this year then DOS will at least create 30k-40k buffer. which should be mid 2008 to fall 2008. There is no evidence for NVC receipt beyond July - Sep 2008.
also 6 months ago they sent notices up to Nov 2007 so in coming bulletin date will go from Nov 2007 - March 2008.
Is this based on facts or just a gut feeling? I would love for this scenario to play out.
Great projection. Thanks for your effort, With Oct 2007 PD, I hope/wish I'll fall under FY 2012.
Visas will not be wasted... this is the second year in a row that DOS has indicated that that all visas were exhausted by mid septemeber....
agree, if this year's SOFAD is 25k, then they have to get 30k-35k at least because not all of the submitted cases can be approved before next summer. Some of the submitted cases can be audited or RFEed or denied. I think they have to get 30k at least, in order to stay on the safe side.
That is because they have the enough pre approved cases before "SO" startsVisas will not be wasted... this is the second year in a row that DOS has indicated that that all visas were exhausted by mid septemeber....
The reason why they didn't waste any visa is because of the 98k EB2 C&I inventory built in 2007.
From 2007 summer to this summer, I think more than 90k EB2 C&I have been approved and 8k are pending.
Year 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
C Approved 8000 6,505 3,045 6,964 6,797
I Approved 18000 19,961 10,106 14,818 6,203
2011 data was estimated.
If they don't have a huge inventory, it will be difficult to control the flow.
In 2007 they built this massive 98k inventory, this year they need to build at least 30k-40k inventory.
According to an analysis on MITBBS, currently there are 12k EB-2C and 81k EB-2I waiting for 485 submission. The total potential is 93k.
Visas will not be wasted... this is the second year in a row that DOS has indicated that that all visas were exhausted by mid septemeber....
Last edited by qblogfan; 09-22-2011 at 12:34 PM.
Which is
Current Pending - 8K
PWMB - 5K (till Aug07)
Aug07-dec07 - 9.5K (Specs table)
----------------------------
23K + 4K Porting = 27K till Dec07
So hardly March 1st 08 it will be
Last edited by polapragada; 09-22-2011 at 12:19 PM. Reason: Changed to March
qblogfan : So disappointed to read this
Potentially 93 K from Aug 2007 to when?
From Aug 2007 to Q3 of 2011. One guy analyzed the number of EB2 applicants who haven't submitted 485 yet.
From FY 2007 to FY 2011, totally around 90k cases (most of cases are from FY 2004-FY 2007) have been approved and 8k are pending.
The potential demand of 93k need four fiscal years to approve if the approval rate is constant.
qblogfan : So disappointed to read this
Potentially 93 K from Aug 2007 to when?
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