Originally Posted by Kanmani
Again H1 extension ( as in filing extension petition on I129 form ) and filing for extension of status(I539) are two different things. Let me take same example as you:
Let say pettion is valid till Dec 2011 and I94 till Oct 2011. Then Mr.X can file extension of status on I539 form using existing I797 and USCIS will give him I94 till DEC 2011.
Excuse me if you felt bad about it. Personally, i myself do quite a few typos. But over the years i have learnt to check again and again to make sure there are no mistakes. Just wanted to point out the same to fellow immigrant friend. In my opinion, typos are like choosing bad employers, and you need to avoid both.
As for your PD, i guess majority guesstimate is that we should cross that date next month.
H1 being work visa - approved petition date is what matters and not I94 date. I94 does not authorize you to work.
Having said that there is no harm in going by earliest date as PlainSpeak suggested.
Can anyone please let me know how soon can one get EAD after filing 485. Also, once you have EAD in hand, can one's spouse start working using the EAD. If yes, what happens to his/her H1-B status, on which he/she were working on earlier.
You (and spouse) are eligible to get one immediately after filing 485. Expect a couple of months to get it. Yes spouse can use EAD but it is advised to continue using H1 if you already have H1 - the reason being if 485 gets denied for whatever reason, EAD no longer remains valid.
That's my understanding. Pls check w your lawyer.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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Thank you Q!
The USCIS Dashboard http://dashboard.uscis.gov/ has been updated with the July 2011 figures.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Q... Is this scenario true when you are on H1 extension also? Had this question for long time...
I will wait until the new I-485 inventory which should be out sometime in october...
Spec thanks for posting. The number of completions has come down in Jul probably because the IO's were busy with I485 approvals thanks to the huge movement for the Jul VB. But the backlog is at a significantly higher level for I140, whenever they get on top of it the SOFAD will come down, the backlog is atleast higher by 10K when compared to corresponding time periods last year. Since Aug and Sep would have seen leaner approvals of 485 it will be interesting to see the backlog figures for Aug and Sep.
hiTK,
Can you give us a number where we will be on Sep 2012, 2013 and 2014 assuming SOFAD levels are same and Infosys, CTS doesn' file too many EB1-C's for consultants and analysts.
soggadu - yes. Always a good idea to keep on H1.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Teddy, ideally the figures for Aug and Sep should indicate backlog reduction, and hence the one to one mapping between that and the sudden surprise increased demand for EB1/EB2ROW for Aug and Sep by USCIS to DOS. So the statement that "the backlog is atleast higher by 10K when compared to corresponding time periods last year." might have the "10k" reduced hopefully when we look at the September figure finally for corresponding September of last year.
In light of the movement of the COD to July in the last bulletin how will USCIS know the inventory (assuming they use the documentarily qualified statistics to calculate invenotry) they have built up in 1 month (before the next VB).
I am guessing that they have setup a mechanism with USCIS, where in USCIS will report to them number of new incoming I-485 aplications for EB2 I/C. The I-485 form has on the first page a box for USCIS use only, which has a box for filling out applicable law (family, asylum, employment etc) , Preference (E1, E2, E3, E4, E5 etc) and country chargeable, and so on kind of identifying information as to what bucket it goes into. So the upfront work for USCIS might be to at least have this box area filled out for incoming I-485 applications in October, and report that to DOS. Maybe they can make it part of their application receipting process to streamline that, maybe they already do.
Now people can only file when October begins and can continue to do so until October 31st (and later if the dates remain current), and they have to release next VB on October 10th around I am guessing, so I think for the next VB at least, they wouldn't wait for the final figures for new I-485, but for the VB after that, they would have some knowledge, which in this case would be only PWMB, and would be a false positive that only few I-485s were obtained, and who knows, that may encourage them to move more in the third bulletin. Just thinking here aloud.
Last edited by nishant2200; 09-21-2011 at 11:45 AM.
Going by this month and above reasoning, Q's theory earlier(pipeline buildup), i think we should see movement for next 2 months. Can anyone lookup the numbers as to what would be exact number of visa numbers needed for another 4 months of movement, which is what can potentially happen comparing to FB scenario of last year.
I think the idea is reverse, if we do n number of months of movement, how much visa numbers would we have to provide, that's what DOS is trying to gauge. The n number of months of movement, what they are basing on currently, we don't know.
I do not want to step onto Spec's toes, with all credit to him (and Veni, and all other number crunching gurus), with calculations he is working on and will provide to us all sometime now, that number is around 9,600 for 4 months onwards from 15th July 2007.
Last edited by nishant2200; 09-21-2011 at 02:51 PM.
Teddy, Nishanth
Nothing changed siginificantly in 140 data from June to July, pending number remained same with new receipts almost same as previous month.
Perm numbers were heavy in May and June, so the EB2 ROW must have used more 485 numbers than EB1 in August and September
Nishant I have a slightly different take on this. At the time of the Aug VB this revelation about sudden demand came up, this must be a function of high approval rates in the previous months, now there is a time lag in filing 485. If we look at the trend May and Jun saw 9-9.5K approvals so the 485's corresponding to these would have hit in Aug assuming the 485 filing takes 2 months on an average, unlike us (Retrogressed Folks), people who are current are in no apparent rush to file. Now the backlog is a function of completions and new demand coming up as well as completions. It seems that the completions have declined and so has the new demand but the reduction is only 5K from the peak and we are still higher by 10K from the normal levels of last year. It could be generalized that the 5K reduction caused a complete loss of SOFAD for Aug & Sep. So another 10K reduction in backlog when it hits the 485 queue will have a significant impact. Now if the 10K reduction in backlog comes by gradually or in a span of say 2 months and it is matched by a higher number of completions it’s ok, if the completions are high and the backlog still stays where it is that means the new demand is heavy. I have a feeling that since the 485 workload was lower this year in Aug and Sep they will try to reduce the 140 backlog at a faster pace and we will see the backlog down and completions higher. Also the backlog may be richer for EB1 thanks to the Kazarian memo, because its only the rate of approval that slowed down there is no evidence to suggest that the demand itself came down. If we assume that even 4K out of the 10K is EB1 + EB2 ROW then reducing that this year could mean ~ 10K less SOFAD which could be very significant. Backlog reduction will happen at some point in time, the agencies will go for it because they would want to show better performance statistics, it definitely hurts SOFAD very badly. Lets hope for the best.
Normally we should work 1 year at a time. At high level if we assume 25K SOFAD coming our way things would look as follows Ball Park.
Sep 2012 - Oct - Nov 2007
Sep 2013 - Oct - Nov 2008
Sep 2014 - Mid 2010
The EB2 Trend is 4-5 years. After late 2008 the demand thins out because that was peak of recession time.
Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 09-21-2011 at 01:07 PM.
did you mean Mid 2009 or 2010 in Sep 2014?
Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 09-21-2011 at 01:07 PM.
My apologies for the mistyping its Mid 2010 for Sep 2014. I just edited the posts.
Teddy (with due respect)
Are you implying that the demand is much greater for late 2007-2008 than 2006 or 2005?
We may not know exactly the prospective numbers waiting to file I 485.
What we do know for a fact is that historically, the PD has moved 1.5 years every FY.
Honestly, did you expect the kind of movement this past year?
Last edited by RMS_V13; 09-21-2011 at 01:10 PM. Reason: Don't wanna sound rude :)
Yes I do believe that the demand is slightly heavier than 2006, its double of 2005 (That year was a breeze). The movement in terms of years is just a statistic. For example we can guesstimate that SOFAD was ~ 30K but movement was 11 months, however he previous year the SOFAD was 26.5K but movement was 16 months. So the movement in terms of months does not reflect the correct picture. At the beginning of 2011 based on the Trackitt trend I had predicted the Mar - Apr range but yes the overall movement was beyond expectations. Your post is very polite we are having a good discussion, I will be happy to answer.
Teddy, can you elaborate a bit on the below:
Sep 2012 - Oct - Nov 2007 - Does this mean that there is a chance for people with PD between Oct - Nov 2007 will get the GC by Sep 2012 or will they get a chance to only file for 485?
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