EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[red2green]

USCIS processing times updated.

Texas service center on an average for 140 around 10 months and for EB 485 8 months.

Nebraska service center for E2/E3 140 is 4 months and for other 140 is 6 months, and for EB 485 is 4 months.

I think that for 485 adjudication, ideally DOS has to see the worst case of 8 months, or at least average of 6 months. Also you want these 485s ripe by June of FY so that SO season beginning with july VB can grab them. This means having incoming inventory 485s by late-latest Dec of FY, meaning by the Dec bulletin which releases in Nov of FY.

Things are looking up, man I sincerely hope they follow this common sense.

Do you guys see a quarterly Spill Over as a possibility this year ? It is obvious that there will be at least 15000(worst case scenario) spill over to EB2 IC in FY2012. So I am hoping they would spill over 5000 visa numbers every quarter for first 3 quarters and for Q4, do a fresh estimate and use remaining SOs for the Q4.

Q1 - 5000 SO + 1400 ( From regular I+C quarterly)--> 6400 --> Majority of cases(if not all) who filed 485 in 2007 get GC in next 2 months
Q2 - 6400 ---> All PDs with PD up to Aug'17th get GC by Feb'2012
Q3 - 6400 ---> All PDs with PD up to Nov'1st get GC by June'1st
Q4 - 1400 + remaining SO(guessing 7000) ---> This should let all PDs upto March/April'2012 get GC by the end of Q4.

I just put the numbers with whatever the limited knowledge I gained in last month. So please let me know if I am making any sense ? The other reason they should do quarterly SO, that will distribute their work load across the year rather than working extremely hard in last quarter(as happend in FY2011).

[nishant2200]

That's great, removes my misconception. We missed you Spec.

nishant,

That is not allowed or possible. The Primary can take advantage of the spouse's Country of Chargeability, if it is advantageous, but PDs are not transferable between spouses. The EB2 could only use their own earlier established PD, if they have one.

Unfortunately, as far as I am aware, the DHS figures do not drill down further than the overall EB Category, so it isn't possible to extract information on individual Countries. The DOS figures, which do, don't provide any breakdown about dependent usage.

[nishant2200]

Dont worry, they are referring to the info given by USCIS about the 12k demand which stalled the Sep VB. They are indicating they have satisfied that visa demand by USCIS completely and have run out.

And also that demand was genuinely true, they really ran out, cant argue with that.

"The above action is a direct result of the USCIS identification,in early August, of an extremely large amount of demand and subsequent processing" - This scares me to shit! The demand data for next bulletin would make for an interesting read.

I hope this doesn't become one of those situations - "Look we found 20000 more apps in this box".

[saky007]

Very well explained Nishant !! I might be off-base here but I see one piece missing in the calculation below. Don't you think DOS will want to have some pipeline to work with when they begin FY 2013? Just like they do now for FY 2012. If that is the case, we might want to add a buffer of 2-3 months bringing the prediction to mid 2008.

As of now, it's really very early. Q thinks the range is quite large, Oct 2007 to March 2008. The two most simple but complex to compute variables here are what will be the actual demand generated for EB2I/C, and what will be the actual supply generated for SO to these categories.

The demand can be generated upto a huge number, it's just a function of distance of date movement. There is no dearth of people waiting. We can estimate that moving date to Dec 2007 can for example, generate 22k documentarily qualified demand for EB2I/C. But this is just an estimate based on assumptions like out of the PERMs, 60% are EB2, 80% led to 140, and 485 approval rate is 85%, the dependent factor is 2.05, and so on. What will be exact, no one can know, until actual dates are moved.

Similarly, for SO, it totally depends on how much leftover carcass we get from EB1, EB2ROW, and EB5. A surge has been noticed in the 140 approval trend / backlog reduction effort, as well as USCIS is having a big push on encouraging and making life easier for EB5. A proof of this surge was the dates stalling in last VB of last FY. So the idea is this year we may get less SO than last year. The projection of SO may be done by various agencies, in their own words, from past trends (last two years, 30k SO approximate), from projection of current trends (Q1, Q2...), consular processing demand and so on.

So basically both supply and demand are highly dynamic.

I personally cannot call any prediction conservative or optimistic right now. What I can call it is lower bound and upper bound.

The lower bound for SO is 18k, and upper bound is 30k. I think DOS would like to have an inventory of 30k at least documentarily qualified by beginning of Q4 FY 2012. They currently have bit more than 8k, moving dates to august 15th 2007, will give them total 12k. They need 18k more, if we assume roughly 2.5k per month, that is around 7 months plus 15th august 2007, which is 15th March 2008. To get to here, they might move 7 months in next two VBs total, 3 months and 4 months, or 3 months and 3 months. Some like bieber believe, they will move just one month next VB, and then do a BTM for like say 6 months.

Now, there is also a big difference in being able to apply vs getting actual GC. Having a 30k inventory is just that, it's not guaranteeing actual GC. That depends on actual SO.

Of course, we are just human and can fall flat on our faces, like everyone did with the surprise Oct VB.

[nishant2200]

Saky, they can always repeat same demand generation in Q1 of next FY. Unless they are into quarterly SO in which case they can never be near a zone where inventory is less than 10k.

Very well explained Nishant !! I might be off-base here but I see one piece missing in the calculation below. Don't you think DOS will want to have some pipeline to work with when they begin FY 2013? Just like they do now for FY 2012. If that is the case, we might want to add a buffer of 2-3 months bringing the prediction to mid 2008.

[veni001]

That's great, removes my misconception. We missed you Spec.

Nishant,
PD is not translatable between spouses. But one can fall back on spouse EB2 application if PD is current. I pointed possibility of this trend earlier with EB3 PD progression.

Example: Both spouses filed their i485 under EB3 PD2005 during July 2007 fiasco using spouse1 approved I140.

Spouse2 got EB2 I140 approved in late 2006/early 2007.

In this case when spouse2 EB2 PD is current either they can interfile/withdraw/re-file under EB2.

[TeddyKoochu]

Nishant,
PD is not translatable between spouses. But one can fall back on spouse EB2 application if PD is current. I pointed possibility of this trend earlier with EB3 PD progression.

Example: Both spouses filed their i485 under EB3 PD2005 during July 2007 fiasco using spouse1 approved I140.

Spouse2 got EB2 I140 approved in late 2006/early 2007.

In this case when spouse2 EB2 PD is current either they can interfile/withdraw/re-file under EB2.

Veni great catch, this definitely is one of the contributing factors in EB3-India moving faster in the last few VB's. as you have said Also there are people (Same person not spouse) with 2 sets of applications they filed in Jul 07 with their older EB3 PD, filed another 485 later with a later pre 2007 EB2 PD could not port date due to various reasons, in some cases they even had to file 485 again. I have read about few such cases on IV they got their GC's recently, one example is a handle – ‘frostrated’, he had a 2004 EB3 PD and a 2006 EB2 PD for some reasons could not port the dates so had to wait for the EB2 date to get current. These kind of cases are also bumping up porting projections.

[Trident]

Thanks Veni...Q indicated that your dates are similar like mine. Hopefully they dont retrogress the dates in the coming bulletin's. Fingers crossed.

I should be able to post a checklist for 485 after I file.

Trident,
I agree with Monica's comments, even though they process FIFO basis, we are expecting only few thousand EB2IC filers based on OCT VB movement. No need to rush but make sure your lawyer has everything in the package before sending to USCIS.

[samudrala]

Found this link in Trackitt.

http://shusterman.com/pdf/ebnumbersgone911.pdf

Gurus, any thoughts?

[Spectator]

Using the derived figures, this is how I see the rough situation, with a few days left in the FY.

------- Visas Used -- SOFAD
EB1 --------- 27.5 --- 12.6
EB2-M -------- 1.1 ---- 1.7
EB2-P -------- 2.4 ---- 0.4
EB2-ROW ----- 25.7 ---- 3.1
EB3 --------- 40.0 ---- N/A
EB4 ---------- 9.9 ---- 0.0
EB5 ---------- 3.8 ---- 6.2

Sub Total -- 110.4 --- 24.0

EB2-IC ------ 29.6 ---- 5.6

Total ------ 140.0 --- 29.6

On that basis, Porting & PWMB would total around 3.6k, meaning Porting was just over 3k. Note :- that assumes that all cases with a PD earlier than 15APR07 have been approved. That is not the case, so the number still awaiting approval would add to the 3.6k figure.

Take the figures with a pinch of salt because there is a large potential for variance in the calculated figures. Others may see it differently and be correct.

Unfortunately, we are unlikely to know the true figures until January 2012, when DOS release the Visa Statistics, although usually some figures leak just before publication.

[qesehmk]

Spec

I agree with these numbers. But to come to your 3.6K PWMB+Porting conclusion, we need to see all EB2IC backlog until 15Apr2007 go away. Has it really? Or is there is a residual one left?

The residual if any - will neeed to be added to the portings + PWMB number.

Right?

Using the derived figures, this is how I see the rough situation, with a few days left in the FY.

------- Visas Used -- SOFAD
EB1 --------- 27.5 --- 12.6
EB2-M -------- 1.1 ---- 1.7
EB2-P -------- 2.4 ---- 0.4
EB2-ROW ----- 25.7 ---- 3.1
EB3 --------- 40.0 ---- N/A
EB4 ---------- 9.9 ---- 0.0
EB5 ---------- 3.8 ---- 6.2

Sub Total -- 110.4 --- 24.0

EB2-IC ------ 29.6 ---- 5.6

Total ------ 140.0 --- 29.6

On that basis, Porting & PWMB would total around 3.6k, meaning Porting was just over 3k.

Take the figures with a pinch of salt because there is a large potential for variance in the calculated figures. Others may see it differently and be correct.

Unfortunately, we are unlikely to know the true figures until January 2012, when DOS release the Visa Statistics, although usually some figures leak just before publication.

[Spectator]

Spec

I agree with these numbers. But to come to your 3.6K PWMB+Porting conclusion, we need to see all EB2IC backlog until 15Apr2007 go away. Has it really? Or is there is a residual one left?

The residual if any - will neeed to be added to the portings + PWMB number.

Right?

Q,

Totally agree with you. I was going to edit the post to make that point - I think I still will.

I can't get a handle on how many cases with PDs earlier than 15APR07 remain to be approved in FY2012. Those are headwinds to how far dates move next year.

What is your current thinking?

[qesehmk]

There are about 1000 EB2IC cases that are current but not approved in trackitt. That's about 10-15K cases (given that ratios have come down). I find it hard to believe these many people haven't updated trackitt when they have received GC.

As of now I can't make any intelliegent guess - how many of these are truly pending vs (gone back to India/China - approved - denied - ported etc)

Q,

Totally agree with you. I was going to edit the post to make that point - I think I still will.

I can't get a handle on how many cases with PDs earlier than 15APR07 remain to be approved in FY2012. Those are headwinds to how far dates move next year.

What is your current thinking?

[Spectator]

There are about 1000 EB2IC cases that are current but not approved in trackitt. That's about 10-15K cases (given that ratios have come down). I find it hard to believe these many people haven't updated trackitt when they have received GC.

As of now I can't make any intelliegent guess - how many of these are truly pending vs (gone back to India/China - approved - denied - ported etc)

Q,

I see about 40 EB2-I pending primary cases that have been updated within the last 6 months with PDs between May 2006 and April 14 2007 (the movement this year) and 5 EB2-C.

That would translate to not more than 1k cases.

I don't know whether that is a sensible number either.

Note:- Edited from original, thanks to Q's eagle eye. Originally it said 240 cases for EB2-I

[qesehmk]

Are you sure? Somehow I find only 38 EB2IC cases that are pending and updated between Jan 2011 and today.

Q,

I see about 240 EB2-I pending primary cases that have been updated within the last 6 months with PDs between May 2006 and April 14 2007 (the movement this year) and 5 EB2-C.

That would translate to around 3-5k cases.

I don't know whether that is a sensible number either.

[Spectator]

Are you sure? Somehow I find only 38 EB2IC cases that are pending and updated between Jan 2011 and today.

Q,

Oops!!

Thanks for pointing that out - I forgot to add the EB2 filter. I will edit my previous post.

That's 34 cases EB2-I cases updated in the last 6 months or 39 updated in 2011. For EB2-C the figure is 5.

That translates to probably not more than 1,000 cases, which sounds more sensible.

[geterdone]

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...-2011-june.pdf

the numbers seem to be too low....is this correct and does this give any indication of how many eb2 I cases are waiting from jan 2008 to june 2011? sorry if this has been previously discussed and if yes please delete.

[qesehmk]

Spec.... there is one more question that we need to answer - "How is it possible that 1000 cases in trackitt are pending (i.e. 10-15K real cases) and they fail to update or even are interested in."

Question is how many of these were denied or went back?

That will also possibly increase portings+PWMBs. Right?

Q,

Oops!!

Thanks for pointing that out - I forgot to add the EB2 filter. I will edit my previous post.

That's 34 cases EB2-I cases updated in the last 6 months or 39 updated in 2011. For EB2-C the figure is 5.

That translates to probably not more than 1,000 cases, which sounds more sensible.

[nishant2200]

this was discussed earlier, this is only for Consular Processing, and hence it's low.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...-2011-june.pdf

the numbers seem to be too low....is this correct and does this give any indication of how many eb2 I cases are waiting from jan 2008 to june 2011? sorry if this has been previously discussed and if yes please delete.

[RMS_V13]

Pardon my lingo..I am still new to all this

What abt the NVC(sic) notices? What are the dates the notices(?) are being sent out to? Any updates?

There were some news about PD 2008 getting notices this past June etc?

[srimurthy]

I think the fab 5 should be employed with DOS or USCIS, then the date would move even faster.
On another note came across a company that is not in IT, but seem to be involved in some fraud. Especially promising the health scinces masters coming out of college with sponsorig for H1 and then collecting money as security deposit to be returned after two months of joining and then not even filing H1. Have know a few people who were effected because of this. Is there a way these guys can report to USCIS with details without the individuals being scrutinized as a witchhunt. I guess someone them returned to their home coutires too.
I wanted to check on this so that the firm doesnot trap others in future and also USCIS takes some action.

[kolugc]

Like the gurus predicted here... it looks like 2012 dates might move till mid Mar 2008.... because considering the spillover and considering the number of cases, that's where the line meets as some had mentioned before. But like in Oct 2011 (VB), they moved the dates by 3 months considering building the pipe line, this can happen in 2012 as well. So the VB's in 2012 Sep-Oct shouldn't we see the dates move beyond 15 Mar 2008 dates?

And considering the last couple of years or, so dates have moved more than an year each year... So by end of 2012 Sep-Oct shouldn't we have people with PD's of 2008 July eligible or getting current?

[vizcard]

Intellectually I get the math that the gurus have done but historically like you said the PD has moved 12-15 months in one FY. I'm hoping that it follows the same trend coz my PD is Aug 2008. Really conflicted here

[soggadu]

Like the gurus predicted here... it looks like 2012 dates might move till mid Mar 2008.... because considering the spillover and considering the number of cases, that's where the line meets as some had mentioned before. But like in Oct 2011 (VB), they moved the dates by 3 months considering building the pipe line, this can happen in 2012 as well. So the VB's in 2012 Sep-Oct shouldn't we see the dates move beyond 15 Mar 2008 dates?

And considering the last couple of years or, so dates have moved more than an year each year... So by end of 2012 Sep-Oct shouldn't we have people with PD's of 2008 July eligible or getting current?

koluuuuu and vizzzzz.... aap khataar mein hien...kripaya pratiksha kijiyee...

[Spectator]

Spec.... there is one more question that we need to answer - "How is it possible that 1000 cases in trackitt are pending (i.e. 10-15K real cases) and they fail to update or even are interested in."

Question is how many of these were denied or went back?

That will also possibly increase portings+PWMBs. Right?

Q,

That number represents cases that may not have been updated over several FY - however long Trackitt has been running.

Over 100 have a PD that has never been Current, so are unlikely to be updated until the PD becomes Current. Others with older PD are just people who created a profile and then lost interest in Trackitt. It is surprising how many active members post about their approval, yet don't update their profile with the approval.

The ratio of Trackitt approvals to real approvals generally takes the un-updated cases into account.

There are around 4k total approvals of EB2-I in total on Trackitt. The number really only represents the 20% ish run rate for cases that are never updated.

Yes, there may be more with PDs earlier than the current Cut off Date that will be updated with an approval in the future that haven't been updated in the last 6 months or year, but if they haven't bothered to date, the number will probably be low.

Some may well be denied cases or people have just given up and gone back, but there is no way to know so, or how many they represent.

That is how I see it - it would be interesting to hear TK's view.