EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[veni001]

Wow - this data is amazing. I had no idea that India is now accounting for such a large proportion of GC applications. Could you please share the source qblogfan?

This is based in Labor filings - so I guess it includes EB-2+3 but not EB1. This probably means that PD for EB-India will continue to be atrociously behind. EB-China will perhaps move much faster than India until spillover forces them to get matched. Even counting for that, in near future we might reach a situation where India is the only retrogressed country in EB-2 and EB-2C is current as well.

Its quite amazing that South Korea is not retrogressed. I read somewhere that South Koreans now form the largest foreign student group in US - so it might just be a matter of time before EB-SK gets backlogged. However, the counterpoint is that in my experience a lot more SK students go back to Korea than Indian or Chinese students.

imdeng,
Please check FACTS AND DATA SECTION for lot more info on EB.

[qblogfan]

We don't want to get their secret information, but the fact is that the employer can refuse to provide any evidence of the completion of each step.

My employer didn't give me even one piece of paper as evidence of approval of PERM/140. I never got any copy of anything. When I ask, they always say it's company property and I don't have rights to ask for anything before 485.

Approved I140 is company's property and we are also their properties just like the slaves in 1800s. The employers put their feet on our face, but we can't argue or fight because our xxxxxxx is fasterned by GC. When we fight the employers with Kong Fu, our xxxxxx will be painful.

Qblogfan - thanks for sharing the info.

By law companies have to hide certain pieces of information from the beneficiary, for example the recruiting process during PERM which requires advertising and seeking any US citizens for the job can (should) not be shared with the beneficiary to keep it fair and unbiased.
But at the completion of each milestone the companies must provide the evidence to the beneficiary such as a copy of the petitions filed/approved etc.
However I have a few friends who faced issues getting the information from their employers for various reasons. FOIA is a great tool to protect the beneficiary in those situations.

[qblogfan]

I copied it from MITBBS, but I think originally it was from USCIS. Sorry for missing source.

SK EB2 can get GC in 1 year or less.

Wow - this data is amazing. I had no idea that India is now accounting for such a large proportion of GC applications. Could you please share the source qblogfan?

This is based in Labor filings - so I guess it includes EB-2+3 but not EB1. This probably means that PD for EB-India will continue to be atrociously behind. EB-China will perhaps move much faster than India until spillover forces them to get matched. Even counting for that, in near future we might reach a situation where India is the only retrogressed country in EB-2 and EB-2C is current as well.

Its quite amazing that South Korea is not retrogressed. I read somewhere that South Koreans now form the largest foreign student group in US - so it might just be a matter of time before EB-SK gets backlogged. However, the counterpoint is that in my experience a lot more SK students go back to Korea than Indian or Chinese students.

[TeddyKoochu]

If you see the Teddy's calculation in the below thread, I decipher that he may be adding porting and then using Spec's numbers as Spillover required and not considering 5.6k regular quota.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=8340#post8340

Disclaimer: I may be totally wrong as I have not done any number crunching but have been a silent observer of the calc

SOFAD by definition means numbers from all sources so it includes the 5.6K.

[TeddyKoochu]

I'll consider getting an InfoPass. End of the day I'll be held responsible for not filing before 90 days (no godly clue why a simple renewal takes 90-120 days after charging 380 bucks!?!). 2 yrs ago it took just 40 days. HR lady made it clear that I cannot remain employed without EAD. But since I've been a permanent employee for 3 yrs I would hope it'll be unpaid leave.

Not sure what "IV" is? Is there a ball park time frame that you believe before which the pending 2006 EB2 folks will get their GCs?

I think you should consider Info pass or call their 1800 number and speak to a level 2 person, there should be a number attached to your case, hopefully they can green you right then if you get to a good person. All the best.

[veni001]

EB2 - South Korea has been using significant VISAs from past few years.

FY2011(Q1-Q3) saw decrease in PERM completions and also increase in denial rate.

South Korea: PERM Data:

FY2010:
Completions = 5,301
Approved = 4,610
Denied/Withdrawn = 691 (13.04%)

FY2011(Q1-Q3):
Completions = 3,360 (~15.5% decrease)
Approved = 2,632
Denied/Withdrawn = 728 (21.67%)

I copied it from MITBBS, but I think originally it was from USCIS. Sorry for missing source.

SK EB2 can get GC in 1 year or less.

qblogfan,

SK demand was down for FY2011, coupled with lower filings and higher denial rate!

[Sandeep2011]

Folks.. i am looking for some urgent help.. if any of you have experience in renewing your passport in the Indian consulates in USA.. can you please answer my question below -

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...in-CGI-Houstan

Thanks much!

Once my query is answered.. i will delete this post.. sorry to digress from the purpose of this thread....

SKP,

Apart from your address verification, normally consulates do not check anything. No police check etc. If you have a copy of your ration card or voter ID card, pls submit it, it will expedite your application. Typically you'll get your new passports in 4-6 weeks. I am not sure if there is an express service. My wife and I have got our passports renewed in last couple of years at CGI Houston without any problem. Once you have submitted all the documents, you don't need to do anything. Hope it helps.

[veni001]

SKP,

Apart from your address verification, normally consulates do not check anything. No police check etc. If you have a copy of your ration card or voter ID card, pls submit it, it will expedite your application. Typically you'll get your new passports in 4-6 weeks. I am not sure if there is an express service. My wife and I have got our passports renewed in last couple of years at CGI Houston without any problem. Once you have submitted all the documents, you don't need to do anything. Hope it helps.

Sandeep,
That's not always true, they do some applications randomly and i was one of them last year.
For my PP renewal it took about 10 weeks.
Good Luck.

[Sandeep2011]

Sandeep,
That's not always true, they do some applications randomly and i was one of them last year.
For my PP renewal it took about 10 weeks.
Good Luck.

Thanks for correcting. I was not aware of anyone whose application had to go through police verification.

[skpanda]

Thanks.. i do not have ration card or voter id card in india.. infact i do not even have a PAN card...

i have never heard of voter id card... where do we get that?

instructions say that i have to give two pieces of address proof. I assumed that they meant the address proof of USA. Do they need address proof for India address where I do not live??

Also.. the indian address on my passport is not the same address where my parents live... will that be a problem?


Thanks!

SKP,

Apart from your address verification, normally consulates do not check anything. No police check etc. If you have a copy of your ration card or voter ID card, pls submit it, it will expedite your application. Typically you'll get your new passports in 4-6 weeks. I am not sure if there is an express service. My wife and I have got our passports renewed in last couple of years at CGI Houston without any problem. Once you have submitted all the documents, you don't need to do anything. Hope it helps.

[vizcard]

Thanks for correcting. I was not aware of anyone whose application had to go through police verification.

Also, in NY ( not sure about other locations) if you haven't got a passport in NY before, the PP is valid only for a year but you can reapply in 3months to extend to 10 years.

[Spectator]

All,

I see a lot of discussion about the "How Much Spillover ..." table.

I agree that the How Much table needs to be updated at some point - it is quite old now and things have moved on.

I think the best time to do that is when September has finished and we can see what the final figures look like. Possibly it would be good to see the Demand Data for November as well.

I am on vacation right now with limited internet access and no time to look at the data. However, I have been preparing for this already.

Once I'm back, I'll talk to the other Gurus about what to show in a revised table. I would prefer it to be base data that people add numbers to based on their own assumptions, rather than including either my own or others assumptions.

As a reminder, the existing figures assume that 60% of Certified EB2-IC PERM are EB2 and only 68% of 2007 PD Certified PERM ever make it to I-485 approval (85% of 80%) and 72% for PD 2008. Whether this is pessimistic or optimistic, I leave to individuals to make their own judgement on.

The table will be updated - please be patient.

[qesehmk]

Spec "limited internet access" on vacation tells me you are probably single. Otherwise "any internet access on vacation" is a sufficient condition to make you single

Enjoy your vacation! After the September bummer, the October bulletin has infused life in the forum again.

All,

I see a lot of discussion about the "How Much Spillover ..." table.

I agree that the How Much table needs to be updated at some point - it is quite old now and things have moved on.

I think the best time to do that is when September has finished and we can see what the final figures look like. Possibly it would be good to see the Demand Data for November as well.

I am on vacation right now with limited internet access and no time to look at the data. However, I have been preparing for this already.

Once I'm back, I'll talk to the other Gurus about what to show in a revised table. I would prefer it to be base data that people add numbers to based on their own assumptions, rather than including either my own or others assumptions.

As a reminder, the existing figures assume that 60% of Certified EB2-IC PERM are EB2 and only 68% of 2007 PD Certified PERM ever make it to I-485 approval (85% of 80%) and 72% for PD 2008. Whether this is pessimistic or optimistic, I leave to individuals to make their own judgement on.

The table will be updated - please be patient.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Sorry to move off-topic. Just got a reply from Senator Durbin for the letters and the e-mail that I sent by signing the petition before a week or so. For people like me who are stuck in this mess and has a PD of 2011, some kind of immigration reform is the only hope.
__________________________________________________ _____________________


Dear Dr. -----:

Thank you for your message regarding the green card backlog. I appreciate hearing from you.

I am pleased to be an original cosponsor of the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2011, S. 1258. Several provisions address family and employment visa reforms. Among these reforms, this bill would recapture unused visas from Fiscal Year (FY) 1992 through 1997. S. 1258 also would increase immigration visas for children and siblings of United States citizens and provide a specific visa allocation for unmarried children of permanent resident aliens. In addition, this bill would allow workers who are eligible for permanent resident status adjustment but for whom a visa number is unavailable to apply for adjustment.

As the son of an immigrant, I believe one of America's strengths is its diversity. It is in our national interest to build upon that strength through a system that maximizes the positive opportunities legal immigration affords by allowing qualified immigrants to contribute to our economy and share their talents and strengths with our communities.


I support efforts to enhance the efficiency and accountability of the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS). It is essential to protect the safety and due process rights of our nation's immigrants at our borders, while fully enforcing our immigration laws and protecting our national security. In the past several years, USCIS and other agencies have implemented policies to reduce the backlog of visa applications. In addition, Congress has appropriated funds specifically for reducing backlogs at USCIS.

The Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act has been referred to the Senate Judiciary Committee, of which I am a member. I will continue to keep your concerns in mind as the Senate considers these issues further. Thank you again for contacting me.

Sincerely,
Richard J. Durbin
United States Senator

__________________________________________________ ______________________

I don't care whether it is Republicans or Democrats in power, but they should do something about the plight of the legal immigrants stuck in this EB2-EB3 mess and I hope they have some kind of bipartisan agreement on this issue. Have a good weekend to all and congratulations to those who got current this visa bulletin.

[red2green]

Qblogfan - thanks for sharing the info.

By law companies have to hide certain pieces of information from the beneficiary, for example the recruiting process during PERM which requires advertising and seeking any US citizens for the job can (should) not be shared with the beneficiary to keep it fair and unbiased.
But at the completion of each milestone the companies must provide the evidence to the beneficiary such as a copy of the petitions filed/approved etc.
However I have a few friends who faced issues getting the information from their employers for various reasons. FOIA is a great tool to protect the beneficiary in those situations.

Hi, I am new to this forum. Thank you all for the wonderful discussions and taking time to help others out.

Have any of you here used FOIA to get the I140 approval copy ? My cousin's employer doesn't share approval copies other than telling her PD is 2/22/08 and filed in EB2. Is it possible for her to get I-140 approval copy using FOIA ? Any help & instructions on this is greatly appreciated. If it is already discussed, please point me to the link. Thanks again.

[veni001]

Some thoughts:

................
................

Luckily I came to know FOIA process from Indian friends and finally got my 140 application secretly. My company didn't give me any document in the past 4-5 years. This system is designed and used to exploit foreign labor and has no protection of the employee's interest at all!

It's not a fair system, it's cold blooded, especially for the Chinese and Indian applicants who have to wait for 4-5 years before the submission of 485. A guy on mitbbs was cheated and he was kept in darkness for 4-5 years and finally the company told him they didn't do anything for him. He couldn't do anything to his company, although he was cheated and wasted 4-5 years of his youth.

This system does not protect employee interests at all. It's explicit exploitation. Sorry for my words. I encourage everybody to use FOIA to check employer's work. We can't take the risk of being cheated. Here is the form for FOIA request. It took me six months to get it. I would recommend you to get it as soon as your 140 is approved.

www.uscis.gov/files/form/g-639.pdf

Hi, I am new to this forum. Thank you all for the wonderful discussions and taking time to help others out.

Have any of you here used FOIA to get the I140 approval copy ? My cousin's employer doesn't share approval copies other than telling her PD is 2/22/08 and filed in EB2. Is it possible for her to get I-140 approval copy using FOIA ? Any help & instructions on this is greatly appreciated. If it is already discussed, please point me to the link. Thanks again.

red2green,
Yes, our qblogfan did use FOIA to get his approved 140, please see his post above.

[cool_mj007]

Spectator and all other gurus,
When you provide an updated table for spillover (or any other estimations) would it be possible to do some scenario analysis?
So instead of saying the spillover could be X would it be possible to give out a range and say with optimistic assumptions it could be X, with conservative assumptions it could be Y and a more realistic assumption could be Z.
That might give us a better understanding on how dates could proceed.
I would be happy to help with any data cleaning and scenario building as you might find appropriate.
Thanks again for all your insights and support.

All,

I see a lot of discussion about the "How Much Spillover ..." table.

I agree that the How Much table needs to be updated at some point - it is quite old now and things have moved on.

I think the best time to do that is when September has finished and we can see what the final figures look like. Possibly it would be good to see the Demand Data for November as well.

I am on vacation right now with limited internet access and no time to look at the data. However, I have been preparing for this already.

Once I'm back, I'll talk to the other Gurus about what to show in a revised table. I would prefer it to be base data that people add numbers to based on their own assumptions, rather than including either my own or others assumptions.

As a reminder, the existing figures assume that 60% of Certified EB2-IC PERM are EB2 and only 68% of 2007 PD Certified PERM ever make it to I-485 approval (85% of 80%) and 72% for PD 2008. Whether this is pessimistic or optimistic, I leave to individuals to make their own judgement on.

The table will be updated - please be patient.

[soggadu]

Spec "limited internet access" on vacation tells me you are probably single. Otherwise "any internet access on vacation" is a sufficient condition to make you single

Enjoy your vacation! After the September bummer, the October bulletin has infused life in the forum again.

you do have a good comic timing Mr.Q.....

[Monica12]

All,

I see a lot of discussion about the "How Much Spillover ..." table.

I agree that the How Much table needs to be updated at some point - it is quite old now and things have moved on.

I think the best time to do that is when September has finished and we can see what the final figures look like. Possibly it would be good to see the Demand Data for November as well.

I am on vacation right now with limited internet access and no time to look at the data. However, I have been preparing for this already.

Once I'm back, I'll talk to the other Gurus about what to show in a revised table. I would prefer it to be base data that people add numbers to based on their own assumptions, rather than including either my own or others assumptions.

As a reminder, the existing figures assume that 60% of Certified EB2-IC PERM are EB2 and only 68% of 2007 PD Certified PERM ever make it to I-485 approval (85% of 80%) and 72% for PD 2008. Whether this is pessimistic or optimistic, I leave to individuals to make their own judgement on.

The table will be updated - please be patient.

Spec, we are all eagerly waiting but will be patient... Enjoy your vacation

[Trident]

Guys - I have ben following the thread for a while. You have been all doing a excellent job helping each other out.

Qblogfan – I believe your story was more emotional…Everybody went through some portion of your story but you had taken a lot. I wish you and others get GC as quick as possible and are a motivation for the new comers in this blog.

I have a quick question for the gurus. I am one of those PWMB - PD (06/01/2007) which get’s current from 01st October. Does it make a difference when my 485 application reaches the USCIS..meaning 01 or 30 th October. Do they issue visa #’s based on PD or 485 receipt date ?

Thanks again guys for all the good work you do.

[qesehmk]

Trident, it does make some difference but if you have reason to delay then don't bother too much. Veni is in exact same condition as you are.

By filing sooner:
1. Your 485 processing starts early
2. You avoid the risk (howsoever miniscule) that DoS may change its mind on dates (heard only once during 2007 fiasco ....but still ..)
3. Who know you may get lucky and get allocated a visa in a couple of months if dates remain current for couple of months.

But other than that if you don't have any emergency then you can probably wait to file till end of october.

Guys - I have ben following the thread for a while. You have been all doing a excellent job helping each other out.

Qblogfan – I believe your story was more emotional…Everybody went through some portion of your story but you had taken a lot. I wish you and others get GC as quick as possible and are a motivation for the new comers in this blog.

I have a quick question for the gurus. I am one of those PWMB - PD (06/01/2007) which get’s current from 01st October. Does it make a difference when my 485 application reaches the USCIS..meaning 01 or 30 th October. Do they issue visa #’s based on PD or 485 receipt date ?

Thanks again guys for all the good work you do.

[Trident]

Thanks Q...My company is working hard to send the application on 30th Sept so it reaches by 01st Oct. (kinda of lucky - they are putting pressure on me).

I dont see anything that should delay and am trying to get all the paperwork to them soon. Medical tests are the only thing thats not in my control. Hopefully there are no issues with that

Trident, it does make some difference but if you have reason to delay then don't bother too much. Veni is in exact same condition as you are.

By filing sooner:
1. Your 485 processing starts early
2. You avoid the risk (howsoever miniscule) that DoS may change its mind on dates (heard only once during 2007 fiasco ....but still ..)
3. Who know you may get lucky and get allocated a visa in a couple of months if dates remain current for couple of months.

But other than that if you don't have any emergency then you can probably wait to file till end of october.

[Monica12]

Guys - I have ben following the thread for a while. You have been all doing a excellent job helping each other out.

Qblogfan – I believe your story was more emotional…Everybody went through some portion of your story but you had taken a lot. I wish you and others get GC as quick as possible and are a motivation for the new comers in this blog.

I have a quick question for the gurus. I am one of those PWMB - PD (06/01/2007) which get’s current from 01st October. Does it make a difference when my 485 application reaches the USCIS..meaning 01 or 30 th October. Do they issue visa #’s based on PD or 485 receipt date ?

Thanks again guys for all the good work you do.

Trident, filing early can have many advantages as Q mentioned especially (though the process is not completely clear) as many lawyers believe that files are picked up according to the date of filing and not necssarily Priority date, when dates are current.
But file all documents carefully. You don't want an RFE or additional delays if a document is missing. So, take time to get everything in order and then file.

[Trident]

Thanks Monica...

Is there any links or post resource, we could use it as a checklist and reference ....

Trident, filing early can have many advantages as Q mentioned especially (though the process is not completely clear) as many lawyers believe that files are picked up according to the date of filing and not necssarily Priority date, when dates are current.
But file all documents carefully. You don't want an RFE or additional delays if a document is missing. So, take time to get everything in order and then file.

[Spectator]

Spec "limited internet access" on vacation tells me you are probably single. Otherwise "any internet access on vacation" is a sufficient condition to make you single

Enjoy your vacation! After the September bummer, the October bulletin has infused life in the forum again.

Q,

So true!

Suffice to say that the few posts I have been able to make cost me big time!!

No doubt my hearing will recover eventually.