EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[Reader]

At least I am thinking October will be in, Teddy has doubts on that too

I am myself November, it gives me a big heartache to even think this.

My date is 10th December 2007. One day it gives me a feeling that I will be able to make it in FY 2012 and the very next day it feels like it is not possible. Gosh, the trend is so oscillating.

[Monica12]

My date is 10th December 2007. One day it gives me a feeling that I will be able to make it in FY 2012 and the very next day it feels like it is not possible. Gosh, the trend is so oscillating.

So true...one day hopes are up and the next day , complete white-wash !
I can now relate to Nishant's " phenyl ki goli " concept.....this is like slow poisoning....

[cbpds1]

Time to do practice yoga this year again

So true...one day hopes are up and the next day , complete white-wash !
I can now relate to Nishant's " phenyl ki goli " concept.....this is like slow poisoning....

[Monica12]

Time to do practice yoga this year again

I think the concept is.... India and China are way too populated.... let's kill these guys slowly
Gosh! I think I'm actually getting bitter tsk..tsk..Not good!
Ok..note to self........ chant 100 times everyday " aaya to aaya baaki sab maya"

[Jitesh]

As someone calculated earlier in this thread,people with PD upto Dec2007 are highly likely to file I-485 in FY12- they may not get GC in FY12 though.
I think this is more likely.

[soggadu]

I thought of donating X dollars to some charity org. If it doesn't happen, then it will be X/2

please don't do that....we can live with it but the charities cant.... I am confident you won't do that.....

[soggadu]

I think the concept is.... India and China are way too populated.... let's kill these guys slowly
Gosh! I think I'm actually getting bitter tsk..tsk..Not good!
Ok..note to self........ chant 100 times everyday " aaya to aaya baaki sab maya"

looks like with the new patent bill becoming law tmmrw ....I should file a patent for my now phamous dialogue ''aaya tho aaya....''

[qesehmk]

Actually you can trademark it. One of the most famous 911 widow trademarked her late husband's words "Let's Roll" and licensed it to quite a few multinationals.

looks like with the new patent bill becoming law tmmrw ....I should file a patent for my now phamous dialogue ''aaya tho aaya....''

[sai999]

Hello Guru's

I am sorry to ask the same question but with October bulletin and date moment are we inline with below figures or do we need to update the below figures

Below are the numbers from Spec in previous post's.

Remaining from FY2011 - 8,332 (spread April 15 to Aug)

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

[sai999]

Until September 2007 i don't think we have pending of 14,778 applications,even if we do PWMB+Porting+pending applications i am thinking of around 10,000 applications...

Please let me know if this is not true.

[veni001]

Until September 2007 i don't think we have pending of 14,778 applications,even if we do PWMB+Porting+pending applications i am thinking of around 10,000 applications...

Please let me know if this is not true.

sai,
Specs estimated EB2IC 485 numbers are based on I+C monthly PERM approvals after July 2007 with PD2007.

[veni001]

Monica

I don't have any theory right now. I am just as much puzzled and just throwing various thoughts out there.

KD - thanks for the data. That explains partially why even if EB1 doesn't surge enough in September the visas won't be wasted. So with this piece of data, its quite clear that the date movement for next year is actually meant for next year's quota.

Q,
The move is in line with what you and spec debated for some time.....post#6895 (page 276)

Spec

The law talks about visa allocation but moving dates is not something that law really cares about. in other words ... the dates can move without having to allocate visas to all whose dates are current or even those who are documentarily qualified. DoS has done it in the past and there is no reason why they wouldn't do it again - but for 2 reasons: 1) It makes their performance look bad when they can't process applications that are current and documentarily qualified. 2) Is there a motivating factor (e.g. building pipeline) that aligns with policy?

So whilst (oink oink) I do agree with you about why they may not move dates in 2011, I do not believe law has much to do with it.

On another note, laws can be bypassed, bent and outright broken. EB3 mexico date movement (or lack thereof) and "Quarterly Spillovers That Don't Occur" are excelent examples.

Here is MurthyLawFirms take on October VB...

"Essentially, mid-August 2007 was as good as things ever got for EB2 India and China. The cutoff dates again are approaching this point, and many I-485s for EB2 India and China have been approved in the past few months. Thus, the anticipated demand is low enough that the universe of pending I-485 cases eligible for approval can be expanded, allowing for additional case filings. Since there is a lag between the filing of an I-485 and adjudication of the case (at which time the visa number is utilized), the DOS is temporarily advancing the cutoff dates to allow a fairly large number of I-485 cases to be filed. This is the reason the dates for India and China advanced by three months at the start of FY12. Any further movement of the priority dates (PDs) will depend upon whether the new filings are approved quickly. When the demand meets or exceeds the visa number supply, the cutoff date movement will slow, stop, or potentially even move backward. "

[qblogfan]

India and China should encourage the immigration to the western countries. The long wait can't stop us!

I think the concept is.... India and China are way too populated.... let's kill these guys slowly
Gosh! I think I'm actually getting bitter tsk..tsk..Not good!
Ok..note to self........ chant 100 times everyday " aaya to aaya baaki sab maya"

[qblogfan]

My date is 1/20/2008. Good luck to both of us!

My date is Jan 8th 2008. I am really scared since date sometime stops at 8 and you can't file if you are not earlier than 8.

[qblogfan]

It's very confusing. "When the demand meets or exceeds the visa number supply, the cutoff date movement will slow, stop, or potentially even move backward"

what is the supply number? the Oct.VB already exceeds our annual quota of 2800, right?

Q,
The move is in line with what you and spec debated for some time.....post#6895 (page 276)




Here is MurthyLawFirms take on October VB...

"Essentially, mid-August 2007 was as good as things ever got for EB2 India and China. The cutoff dates again are approaching this point, and many I-485s for EB2 India and China have been approved in the past few months. Thus, the anticipated demand is low enough that the universe of pending I-485 cases eligible for approval can be expanded, allowing for additional case filings. Since there is a lag between the filing of an I-485 and adjudication of the case (at which time the visa number is utilized), the DOS is temporarily advancing the cutoff dates to allow a fairly large number of I-485 cases to be filed. This is the reason the dates for India and China advanced by three months at the start of FY12. Any further movement of the priority dates (PDs) will depend upon whether the new filings are approved quickly. When the demand meets or exceeds the visa number supply, the cutoff date movement will slow, stop, or potentially even move backward. "

[qblogfan]

I have the same feeling! I am so axious to check every EB immigration website for info. I check this forum and mitbbs 20 times per day in some days. I hope you can green soon!

My date is 10th December 2007. One day it gives me a feeling that I will be able to make it in FY 2012 and the very next day it feels like it is not possible. Gosh, the trend is so oscillating.

[veni001]

It's very confusing. "When the demand meets or exceeds the visa number supply, the cutoff date movement will slow, stop, or potentially even move backward"

what is the supply number? the Oct.VB already exceeds our annual quota of 2800, right?

qblogfan,
That's true, my understanding from the attorney's take on October VB is that USCIS/DOS can build the "pipeline" by advancing dates but only issue VISA numbers allowed by law!

[nishant2200]

Veni, this line from murthy concerns me, not sure what they mean. If this is true then further movement would only occur in Q3/Q4, if they mean GC by approval, or if they mean eligible to appear in demand data, that also would take 3 months at least:
"Any further movement of the priority dates (PDs) will depend upon whether the new filings are approved quickly. "

Q,
The move is in line with what you and spec debated for some time.....post#6895 (page 276)




Here is MurthyLawFirms take on October VB...

"Essentially, mid-August 2007 was as good as things ever got for EB2 India and China. The cutoff dates again are approaching this point, and many I-485s for EB2 India and China have been approved in the past few months. Thus, the anticipated demand is low enough that the universe of pending I-485 cases eligible for approval can be expanded, allowing for additional case filings. Since there is a lag between the filing of an I-485 and adjudication of the case (at which time the visa number is utilized), the DOS is temporarily advancing the cutoff dates to allow a fairly large number of I-485 cases to be filed. This is the reason the dates for India and China advanced by three months at the start of FY12. Any further movement of the priority dates (PDs) will depend upon whether the new filings are approved quickly. When the demand meets or exceeds the visa number supply, the cutoff date movement will slow, stop, or potentially even move backward. "

[veni001]

Veni, this line from murthy concerns me, not sure what they mean. If this is true then further movement would only occur in Q3/Q4, if they mean GC by approval, or if they mean eligible to appear in demand data, that also would take 3 months at least:
"Any further movement of the priority dates (PDs) will depend upon whether the new filings are approved quickly. "

Nishant,
That will happen after "DOS is temporarily advancing the cutoff dates to allow a fairly large number of I-485 cases to be filed".

I don't think USCIS/DOS will see substantial EB2IC filings with October move? do you?

[soggadu]

,

It's very confusing. "When the demand meets or exceeds the visa number supply, the cutoff date movement will slow, stop, or potentially even move backward"

what is the supply number? the Oct.VB already exceeds our annual quota of 2800, right?

hey brother from other mother....what's the talk on mitbbs???

[muntazir]

Hi All, In a real pickle here :-( ...my PD is Sept 06 (NSC, India, EB2) and current since 1st June. Out of sheer stupidity, unrealistic optimism, and news of the flood of people receiving their GCs, I waited till 2 months before EAD expiration to file for EAD renewal for myself and spouse. So my EAD expires at the end of this month (just 2 weeks away) and my company has been sending reminder emails for the new EAD (last time - 2 yrs ago - badmashaan never cared). Contacted congressman's staff, they got no response from USCIS. Created SR at USCIS for EAD expedite (forwarded them company letter about jeopardized employment), still waiting to hear back from them. To rub salt on wounds, folks from PD of March/April of 2007 are being given GCs. Anxiety killing me.

Is there any sliver of hope I can cling to? Will appreciate any suggestions. Heck even funny uplifting poetry would do. Here's one I heard:

Qismat mey 'gar likha ho pait mey injection lena,
Toe Oont pe baithke nikle bhi toe kutta ek din kaatinga.
[If it is destined in your fate to receive injections in tummy (or not receive GC/EAD),
Then even if you ride high on a camel (or create SR, contact congressman), a dog will eventually manage to bite you (no GC/EAD)]

[nishant2200]

Nope, don't think so. Thank you Veni.

Nishant,
That will happen after "DOS is temporarily advancing the cutoff dates to allow a fairly large number of I-485 cases to be filed".

I don't think USCIS/DOS will see substantial EB2IC filings with October move? do you?

[qesehmk]

muntazir how about infopass to know what's going on with your case?

Can an extension of EAD save you from jeopardizing your employment?

I would also recommend keeping a record of all communication ... so that if you lose your employment because of these delays and choose to sue USCIS then you have something to show.

Really sorry to hear your case. Did you contact IV too ... just in case?

Hi All, In a real pickle here :-( ...my PD is Sept 06 (NSC, India, EB2) and current since 1st June. Out of sheer stupidity, unrealistic optimism, and news of the flood of people receiving their GCs, I waited till 2 months before EAD expiration to file for EAD renewal for myself and spouse. So my EAD expires at the end of this month (just 2 weeks away) and my company has been sending reminder emails for the new EAD (last time - 2 yrs ago - badmashaan never cared). Contacted congressman's staff, they got no response from USCIS. Created SR at USCIS for EAD expedite (forwarded them company letter about jeopardized employment), still waiting to hear back from them. To rub salt on wounds, folks from PD of March/April of 2007 are being given GCs. Anxiety killing me.

Is there any sliver of hope I can cling to? Will appreciate any suggestions. Heck even funny uplifting poetry would do. Here's one I heard:

Qismat mey 'gar likha ho pait mey injection lena,
Toe Oont pe baithke nikle bhi toe kutta ek din kaatinga.
[If it is destined in your fate to receive injections in tummy (or not receive GC/EAD),
Then even if you ride high on a camel (or create SR, contact congressman), a dog will eventually manage to bite you (no GC/EAD)]

[qblogfan]

nothing new on mitbbs. NIU is pusing the 27% spillover and we hope Mr.CO can approve EB2 C&I in each quarter, not just in the summer.

People are mad and frustrated.

,

hey brother from other mother....what's the talk on mitbbs???

[qblogfan]

I don't know whether gurus have posted the new statistics of PERM. Last year there were 28000 non-India/China PERM filed in the first nine months.

We can make an estimation of the demand from ROW. South Korea has a higher demand than China, but they have no retrogression at all.

Department of Labor made decisions on 59,459 labor certificates for green
card during the first 9 months of FY2011: 9,316 were denied and 2,238 were
withdrawn. Following are the top countries, jobs and employers in Business &
Finance (update career profile to get customized visa job solution):

2011 Top Green Card Countries
1India28,363
2South Korea3,360
3China3,245
4Mexico3,237
5Canada2,767
6Philippines2,310
7Pakistan893
8Japan871
9United Kingdom834
Green Card for Workers From Your Country


2011 Top Green Card Occupations in Business & Finance
1Financial Analysts921
2Accountants659
3Management Analysts527
4Accountants and Auditors266
5Auditors238
6Logisticians161
7Wholesale and Retail Buyers, Except Farm Products79
8Credit Analysts73
9Cost Estimators70
More Green Card Jobs in Business & Finance

2011 Top Green Card Employers in Business & Finance
1Ernst & Young U.S. Llp1,035
2Deloitte & Touche Llp633
3Ibm Corporation470
4Deloitte Consulting Llp426
5Kpmg Llp251
6Goldman, Sachs & Co.217
7Deloitte Tax Llp191
8Pricewaterhousecoopers, Llp182
9Jpmorgan Chase & Co.162
More Hot Employers in Business & Finance