EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[nishant2200]

Please go through some thread and do research before giving false hope to new comers. This holds same true that Stock Market was this level on so and so date in a given year so it will be same this year. Will you bet on it ?

to be fair to gcseeker, he has clearly mentioned the disclaimer in his post last para, as well as he and Sunil are just brainstorming. We all should draw our own judgements from various data sources and methods.

[leo07]

If I remember correctly, for the for 2010, October data had the yearly quota 147 or 148K with a note about Family spill-over.

Nishant you can't talk about FB spillover looking at this document. FB spillover is usually disclosed in Q4 of next year.

[PlainSpeak]

In my opinion

The EB2 dates will move to the most favorable date of 31/July/2007 after which the dates wil be stuck there for a long time till either
- All previous apps have been cleared (Highly Likely)
- Spillover season occurs in 2012 (Highly unlikely)
Like i said In my opinion ......

[skpanda]

i have done it in US for my parents and my attorneys and immigration expects in my company.. say that is perfectly fine (infact even better).

Is it valid if we make birth affidavit in US when our parents are here in US on visit visa? Or should we make in India through Indian lawyer only??

[Gclongwait]

Please go through some thread and do research before giving false hope to new comers. This holds same true that Stock Market was this level on so and so date in a given year so it will be same this year. Will you bet on it ?

Actually I would. When you are dealing in large numbers and hundreds of variables that affect a certain a value you do see a trend. The stock market does have cycles of up and down which follow a trend, after discounting inflation.

I fail to see anything wrong in his approach.

[soggadu]

thanks for the wishes JJ, bieber, 10102007, gcseeker and monica..... Lets hope for the best and leave the rest.....

[qblogfan]

Sir, thanks for asking. My PD is January 2008. I guess I have to wait for another year.

qbf whats your date? I am sorry I forgot.

[nayekal]

I have received quite a few requests for affidavit template.. hence i thought i will attach it here.


Enjoy!

Great!! Thanks

[qblogfan]

You have a good memory! Yes, my PD is Jan.2008. I got my FOIA documents and it confims I am EB2 and PD Jan 2008. I was suspecting the company was cheating me. I didn't get the I140 approval notice, but I got the I140 application documents and it has 30 pages.

Let's wait for qbf to reply, I think its in January 2008.

[dec2007]

Sir, thanks for asking. My PD is January 2008. I guess I have to wait for another year.

Qbf, my dateis dec31,2007.
We both will get our dates same time, probably. Best of luck. Keep the hopes alive.

[qesehmk]

sunil, thanks again. Good compilation. We will copy to FACTS and DATA Section as well for people's reference.

Intuitively, on a fairly large period of time (may be 10 years) yes the dates must move 1 year per year so as not to build backlog! But as gcseeker pointed out 1999 and 2007 were abnormal and so were many more years. Every year is different. My advice is always to look at past year and say what's changed from prior year and then try to predict. (Of course I could be wrong! But that's why I try to do at the start of the year and then adjust as we go.)

Q - Thanks for update.. I am also wondering how the dates are moving on an average nearly ONE YEAR.. Do you think EB1, EB5 & EB2-ROW applications are less OR Spillover is More for these years ? If you take this assumption, the dates should be around March 2008

Fiscal Year: 1992 - Average Movement: -4.4 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1993 - Average Movement: 28.77 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1994 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1995 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1996 - Average Movement: -14.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1997 - Average Movement: 16.23 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1998 - Average Movement: 17.93 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1999 - Average Movement: 40.93 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2000 - Average Movement: -11.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2001 - Average Movement: 23.33 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2002 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2003 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2004 - Average Movement: 12.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2005 - Average Movement: -59.87 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2006 - Average Movement: 31.9 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2007 - Average Movement: 21.87 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2008 - Average Movement: -12.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2009 - Average Movement: 22.07 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2010 - Average Movement: 15.7 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2011 - Average Movement: 11.4 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2012 - Average Movement: 3.03 month(s) so far.

If I remember correctly, for the for 2010, October data had the yearly quota 147 or 148K with a note about Family spill-over.

Yes. We are talking about next year though. Until we know how much was consumed this year ... its hard to say how much (if any) spillover will be available next year.

Sir, thanks for asking. My PD is January 2008. I guess I have to wait for another year.

Hey ... there is no sir here. We are all friends! Sorry for forgetting the date. But I know very well your desire to visit back and the pain in not being able to. Given how dates have been moved certainly has increased the odds that Jan 2008 could scrape through next year itself. Lets cross the fingers

[qblogfan]

Thank you for your kind words, my friend!

It's 11pm in Houston. Hope you guys will have a good sleep.

sunil, thanks again. Good compilation. We will copy to FACTS and DATA Section as well for people's reference.

Intuitively, on a fairly large period of time (may be 10 years) yes the dates must move 1 year per year so as not to build backlog! But as gcseeker pointed out 1999 and 2007 were abnormal and so were many more years. Every year is different. My advice is always to look at past year and say what's changed from prior year and then try to predict. (Of course I could be wrong! But that's why I try to do at the start of the year and then adjust as we go.)




Yes. We are talking about next year though. Until we know how much was consumed this year ... its hard to say how much (if any) spillover will be available next year.


Hey ... there is no sir here. We are all friends! Sorry for forgetting the date. But I know very well your desire to visit back and the pain in not being able to. Given how dates have been moved certainly has increased the odds that Jan 2008 could scrape through next year itself. Lets cross the fingers

[qblogfan]

Yes, I hope both of us can get EAD/AP/GC soon! We have waited for almost 4 years.

Qbf, my dateis dec31,2007.
We both will get our dates same time, probably. Best of luck. Keep the hopes alive.

[Monica12]

You have a good memory! Yes, my PD is Jan.2008. I got my FOIA documents and it confims I am EB2 and PD Jan 2008. I was suspecting the company was cheating me. I didn't get the I140 approval notice, but I got the I140 application documents and it has 30 pages.

Whew! I'm so glad to know that you are Eb2 ... I was wondering about that.. Good luck, my friend!

[RRRRRR]

Happy for you that your date is jan 2008 and Eb2. Once again thanks for all your analysis and dedication to this thread. Good Luck.....

You have a good memory! Yes, my PD is Jan.2008. I got my FOIA documents and it confims I am EB2 and PD Jan 2008. I was suspecting the company was cheating me. I didn't get the I140 approval notice, but I got the I140 application documents and it has 30 pages.

[Pedro Gonzales]

If all the effort so many of us put into reading and contributing to this thread were redirected to more productive sectors of the economy (our work, family, houses, gardens, neighborhood, community, etc), how many jobs would it create? It's past 1 AM EST right now and there are 22 people browsing this thread now. For me, that is the single most important determinant of whether immigrants add or subtract jobs from an economy. We're here, we've already taken away whatever jobs you're trying to protect. There's some chance that, if we weren't wasting our time trying to carve our place in the sand, we'd be partaking in an activity that would create other jobs, or, failing that, help the community. In any case, how many of us immigrants lose our jobs and leave the country before we receive our green cards, anyway? 3%? And on the other hand how many immigrants create other jobs in the US economy? 1 job per 10 immigrants?

Is there a way to calculate that? My point is, if the first number is minuscule, and in any case worse than the second number, then the anti-immigrant's argument is shattered. Holding up my GC pains the shit out of me for 7 years, but it doesn't save an American's job, and perhaps even delays 0.1 jobs from being created.

Just some intoxicated musings I thought I'd share with the world at large. Or in any case, with a bunch of analytical immigrants.

Jai Hind!

[nishant2200]

Good nite buddy.

If all the effort so many of us put into reading and contributing to this thread were redirected to more productive sectors of the economy (our work, family, houses, gardens, neighborhood, community, etc), how many jobs would it create? It's past 1 AM EST right now and there are 22 people browsing this thread now. For me, that is the single most important determinant of whether immigrants add or subtract jobs from an economy. We're here, we've already taken away whatever jobs you're trying to protect. There's some chance that, if we weren't wasting our time trying to carve our place in the sand, we'd be partaking in an activity that would create other jobs, or, failing that, help the community. In any case, how many of us immigrants lose our jobs and leave the country before we receive our green cards, anyway? 3%? And on the other hand how many immigrants create other jobs in the US economy? 1 job per 10 immigrants?

Is there a way to calculate that? My point is, if the first number is minuscule, and in any case worse than the second number, then the anti-immigrant's argument is shattered. Holding up my GC pains the shit out of me for 7 years, but it doesn't save an American's job, and perhaps even delays 0.1 jobs from being created.

Just some intoxicated musings I thought I'd share with the world at large. Or in any case, with a bunch of analytical immigrants.

Jai Hind!

[tanu_75]

If all the effort so many of us put into reading and contributing to this thread were redirected to more productive sectors of the economy (our work, family, houses, gardens, neighborhood, community, etc), how many jobs would it create? It's past 1 AM EST right now and there are 22 people browsing this thread now. For me, that is the single most important determinant of whether immigrants add or subtract jobs from an economy. We're here, we've already taken away whatever jobs you're trying to protect. There's some chance that, if we weren't wasting our time trying to carve our place in the sand, we'd be partaking in an activity that would create other jobs, or, failing that, help the community. In any case, how many of us immigrants lose our jobs and leave the country before we receive our green cards, anyway? 3%? And on the other hand how many immigrants create other jobs in the US economy? 1 job per 10 immigrants?

Is there a way to calculate that? My point is, if the first number is minuscule, and in any case worse than the second number, then the anti-immigrant's argument is shattered. Holding up my GC pains the shit out of me for 7 years, but it doesn't save an American's job, and perhaps even delays 0.1 jobs from being created.

Just some intoxicated musings I thought I'd share with the world at large. Or in any case, with a bunch of analytical immigrants.

Jai Hind!

Well said. Some good intoxication that.

[10102007]

Yesterday there was a segment on Marketplace where they were discussing about lack of jobs. It was interesting because some of the developIng country have a lower unemployment rate. In the US, people who have jobs are not spending. Hence people without jobs stay unemployed. The companies that have cash are not spending either.

Now imagine this scenario: you ease up LEGAL immigration and more people come in. Now those people will need things and they could give a small push to the struggling economy. Think about how many of us have put off buying homes or other expensive things because of the X factor with H1B stamping and the dragging GC process. If an 'immigration' stability is provided, I'm sure a few of us will buy homes, a few may start small businesses, a few of us may pursue higher education.

I'm not saying this alone will spur the economy. But the current middle class and rich have what they want/ need and you need a new set of consumers.

Then comes the part where how ILLEGAL immigrants can help. Yes they are here illegally but see how you can take advantage of their position. Yes deport all illegal immigrants with criminal records, but if you somehow give a work permit, they may feel a firm footing. Of course, once an amnesty is given, you have to tighten border security so that people can't come here illegally to become legal immigrants. Also, the taxes these people pay is a win for the government.
(please note that I'm not supporter of forgiving illegal immigrants, but just rambling on how the US government can take advantage of their situation)

In a way the EB-5 plan is good too. Yes in a way it affects people like us, but that is why I stated that you have to ease up LEGAL immigration.


Sorry guys - just some directionless blabbering.

[gc_usa]

Sir, thanks for asking. My PD is January 2008. I guess I have to wait for another year.

My date is Jan 8th 2008. I am really scared since date sometime stops at 8 and you can't file if you are not earlier than 8.

[Eb2_Dec07]

Gurus , mine is dec 4th 2007 PD Eb2 Ind . Im a little confused from different points of view . Can i expect 485 filing in 2012 itself or will I have to wait till 2013 .
I have not travelled to Ind since 2007 , waiting to file for 485 to and then make any travel. Hoping to travel end of 2012 for my new house warming in home country.

[kpt112107]

Good but on what paper here? I mean in India we do it on some twenty rupees stamp paper. Can we go to any notary in UPS store to do this?

i have done it in US for my parents and my attorneys and immigration expects in my company.. say that is perfectly fine (infact even better).

[familyguy]

I have a PD which is close to yours.... There is a very good chance that we will get a chance to file 485 in this fiscal year.. worst case, i am pretty sure that we will get a chance to file early next FY, which is Oct 2013...

Gurus , mine is dec 4th 2007 PD Eb2 Ind . Im a little confused from different points of view . Can i expect 485 filing in 2012 itself or will I have to wait till 2013 .
I have not travelled to Ind since 2007 , waiting to file for 485 to and then make any travel. Hoping to travel end of 2012 for my new house warming in home country.

[Chilli19]

Here is the Ron Gotcher's news letter on October visa bulletin

http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...ctober-vb.html

[Kanmani]

Here is the Ron Gotcher's news letter on October visa bulletin

http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...ctober-vb.html

Our own Veni has already explained the 2007 scenario where people rushed to file I485 even without a Perm approval . Ron is late