EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

The processing times are artificially lower right now because of huge amout of EB2IC backlog. As they build the pipeline the processing won't remain this fast.

Folks,
Great forum, great number crunching. Regarding the processing times, just wanted to quote my friends case as a reference. His PD is 07MAR07 and is a PWMB, got current in July VB, applied 485 on 07/01/11, got FP done on 07/15/11 and had GC in hand on 08/20/11. Everything is super quick, happened in ~45days. The processing times are assumed as 4-6 months, but do you guys think USCIS has improved on that front and no longer need such long times. One instance is not a basis, but in case if people heard similar processing times else where too.

Thnx

[kpt112107]

Is it valid if we make birth affidavit in US when our parents are here in US on visit visa? Or should we make in India through Indian lawyer only??

[Monica12]

on this note, I am really worried if they plan to move dates again for 3 months instead of 3.5/4 months..... 3 months mean Oct 15..... Keeping my fingers, matter of fact whole body crossed.... Please god either > Oct 22 or < Oct 1.... Can't take anything else...

LOL! I'm praying everyday the dates move by 3.5-4 months in the next VB so that we can see your dancing avatar again

[nishant2200]

http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/S...0-0-11565.html

search for: (2) Submitting secondary evidence and affidavits , this is section 103.2 (b)(2)

straight from the source.

also at:
http://ecfr.gpoaccess.gov/cgi/t/text...0.1.2.6&idno=8

see section 103.2

[qesehmk]

Welcome to the forum! If you are the primary applicant then in my opinion you don't need to worry about marriage certificate anymore.

One of my suggested to me about this forum and for the past few days I’ve going through the posts- I liked this forum very much.- Thanks to all the folks.

My EB2-PD is August 2007 and based on the current movement in the bulletin, I’m hoping to be in the line soon to file for my I 485. I went through I 485 documentation requirements and my question is related to the marriage / divorce certificate. I’m a divorcee since September 2004- was married in India and got my divorce in the US Court. This being my case, do I still need to provide both the marriage and divorce certificate? I don’t think it is necessary but thought of running this question through this forum for any thoughts or suggestions.
Thanks,

[psczd4]

Qesehmk- I'm the primary applicant and thanks very much for your opinion.

[qblogfan]

me too, I am addicted to this forum. I have to check this forum at least five times or even more every day.

The endless waiting is killing me. My wife needs EAD to work for school and I need AP to travel home to meet my family!

I have been working on the same position for seven years and I am desparate for GC now!

Soggadu,

Understand your pain buddy. This wait is killing me. I have become a Q forum addict and it's all numbers in the brain even during sleep. It is tough because we are very close to our dates becoming current but yet too far away. Feel sorry for the guys who missed it by a week or two.

Let's hope we get to apply for our 485 this year.

[qesehmk]

qbf whats your date? I am sorry I forgot.

me too, I am addicted to this forum. I have to check this forum at least five times or even more every day.

The endless waiting is killing me. My wife needs EAD to work for school and I need AP to travel home to meet my family!

I have been working on the same position for seven years and I am desparate for GC now!

[pichkaari]

Guys, any suggestions if I should go for AOS or CP (EB2 India PD 09/21/2007)? Keeping in mind the discussions about USCIS processing times/uncertainties/retrogression etc above.

Junta,

Let me first say that this site has been tremendously useful, especially for EB2 India people like me who’ve been stuck for the last few years. I’ve followed the VB prediction discussions over the last 2 years.

I have an approved I-140(EB2 India PD 9/21/2007) from my previous employer. I recently changed jobs and have an approved PERM with my new employer. I’m about to file for my I-140(retaining the old date), and was undecided between Consular Processing / Adjustment Of Status. I remember hearing in the past that CP was much quicker and that people got screwed through the AOS route. However, I’ve also been reading lately that these issues have been resolved and now wait times through AOS are pretty quick(2-4 months). CP might take a little longer now?

What do you guys think? If we get a BTM for a month or two, won’t the CP expedite the GC? I’m also concerned that in a BTM, VO might process applications in a random manner. My company lawyers are strongly recommending the regular AOS route.

Meri uljhan ka upaye bataiye!

[indiasunil]

Thank you for contacting me about employment-based immigrant visas. I appreciate hearing from you on this issue.

Under current immigration law, employment-based immigration is limited to 140,000 visas, or green cards, per year. The process for obtaining employment-based visas can take years to complete, causing many of these visas to go unused. There is also an annual per-country limit that caps at seven percent the number of employment-based immigrants that can come from any one country. In some instances, this per-country cap causes employers to consider country of origin, not talent, when hiring foreign workers.

Last Congress, a bill was introduced in the Senate that would address some of these delays and caps. The “Reuniting American Families Act” (S. 1085, 111th Congress) would recapture unused employment-based visas from prior years. This bill would allow the Department of Homeland Security to issue any unused visas from Fiscal Years 1992-2007 and in the future roll over any unused visas from one year to the next. It would also increase the per-country cap for employment-based visas to ten percent of the annual total.

This legislation was not signed into law before the last congressional session concluded in December 2010. Therefore, it will need to be reintroduced in the 112th Congress in order to receive further consideration. Please be assured that I will keep your views in mind should this or other relevant legislation come before the full Senate. Thank you again for contacting me.

Gurus,
Received above email from Senator Frank. As per his comments, The Unused numbers will be used in next year?? In that case, the dates movement in October Bulletin based on previous wasted Visas ??
Am i a missing something here ?

[nishant2200]

Hate to spoil the good vibes we all have right now, but :

USCIS Begins Implementation of Enhancements to the EB-5 Program

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

USCIS is hell bent on selling the EB5 GCs for the 500k-1million.

[nishant2200]

I will let others chime in, my thought is if such was the case, it would be big news posted on all lawyer's websites as well as CO would have put this reason officially in the comments in visa bulletin.

also:
http://www.opencongress.org/bill/111-s1085/show

shows its in just the introduced status.

as well as:
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=s111-1085

shows similar albeit more detailed status info. it also says: "This bill never became law."

Thank you for contacting me about employment-based immigrant visas. I appreciate hearing from you on this issue.

Under current immigration law, employment-based immigration is limited to 140,000 visas, or green cards, per year. The process for obtaining employment-based visas can take years to complete, causing many of these visas to go unused. There is also an annual per-country limit that caps at seven percent the number of employment-based immigrants that can come from any one country. In some instances, this per-country cap causes employers to consider country of origin, not talent, when hiring foreign workers.

Last Congress, a bill was introduced in the Senate that would address some of these delays and caps. The “Reuniting American Families Act” (S. 1085, 111th Congress) would recapture unused employment-based visas from prior years. This bill would allow the Department of Homeland Security to issue any unused visas from Fiscal Years 1992-2007 and in the future roll over any unused visas from one year to the next. It would also increase the per-country cap for employment-based visas to ten percent of the annual total.

This legislation was not signed into law before the last congressional session concluded in December 2010. Therefore, it will need to be reintroduced in the 112th Congress in order to receive further consideration. Please be assured that I will keep your views in mind should this or other relevant legislation come before the full Senate. Thank you again for contacting me.

Gurus,
Received above email from Senator Frank. As per his comments, The Unused numbers will be used in next year?? In that case, the dates movement in October Bulletin based on previous wasted Visas ??
Am i a missing something here ?

[tanu_75]

Thank you for contacting me about employment-based immigrant visas. I appreciate hearing from you on this issue.

Under current immigration law, employment-based immigration is limited to 140,000 visas, or green cards, per year. The process for obtaining employment-based visas can take years to complete, causing many of these visas to go unused. There is also an annual per-country limit that caps at seven percent the number of employment-based immigrants that can come from any one country. In some instances, this per-country cap causes employers to consider country of origin, not talent, when hiring foreign workers.

Last Congress, a bill was introduced in the Senate that would address some of these delays and caps. The “Reuniting American Families Act” (S. 1085, 111th Congress) would recapture unused employment-based visas from prior years. This bill would allow the Department of Homeland Security to issue any unused visas from Fiscal Years 1992-2007 and in the future roll over any unused visas from one year to the next. It would also increase the per-country cap for employment-based visas to ten percent of the annual total.

This legislation was not signed into law before the last congressional session concluded in December 2010. Therefore, it will need to be reintroduced in the 112th Congress in order to receive further consideration. Please be assured that I will keep your views in mind should this or other relevant legislation come before the full Senate. Thank you again for contacting me.

Gurus,
Received above email from Senator Frank. As per his comments, The Unused numbers will be used in next year?? In that case, the dates movement in October Bulletin based on previous wasted Visas ??
Am i a missing something here ?

Not sure if you are aware, but the government is effectively paralyzed. The visa recapture proposal has been in more than 10 bills over the past decade. Not a single one has passed. Not because everybody hates it, but because nothing happens in Congress anymore. And especially on immigration, absolutely nothing happens. The only hope and game in town is less demand from eb1 and eb2row, as has been the case the past few years.

[nishant2200]

Not sure if you are aware, but the government is effectively paralyzed. The visa recapture proposal has been in more than 10 bills over the past decade. Not a single one has passed. Not because everybody hates it, but because nothing happens in Congress anymore. And especially on immigration, absolutely nothing happens. The only hope and game in town is less demand from eb1 and eb2row, as has been the case the past few years.

And the recent jobs bill being promoted by President, if it had these provisions for EB reform, it would have a great chance. This was the last straw from this presidency for our hopes I feel. Now only in next term something hopefully can be taken up.

[nishant2200]

qbf whats your date? I am sorry I forgot.

Let's wait for qbf to reply, I think its in January 2008.

[cbpds1]

Dont worry, this recent jobs bill is not very pleasing to even the dem senators, forget abt repubs

Its more of a campaign bill.

And the recent jobs bill being promoted by President, if it had these provisions for EB reform, it would have a great chance. This was the last straw from this presidency for our hopes I feel. Now only in next term something hopefully can be taken up.

[nishant2200]

sunil, it's official, there's no extra visas this year to EB from any FB or any bill etc.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_...cal_Limits.pdf

credit to CM of US non immigrant blog.

[qesehmk]

I had replied earlier in the thread. Need to go back and check out.

Guys, any suggestions if I should go for AOS or CP (EB2 India PD 09/21/2007)? Keeping in mind the discussions about USCIS processing times/uncertainties/retrogression etc above.

Sunil, thanks for sharing. Although recapture bill is introduced every year and doesn't go anywhere, I think we need to continue to press for it. Because otherwise nobody is going to speak about it. The movement in October is still a puzzle whether it relates to 2011 visas or 2012 fresh set of visas.

Gurus,
Received above email from Senator Frank. As per his comments, The Unused numbers will be used in next year?? In that case, the dates movement in October Bulletin based on previous wasted Visas ??
Am i a missing something here ?

[qesehmk]

Nishant you can't talk about FB spillover looking at this document. FB spillover is usually disclosed in Q4 of next year.

sunil, it's official, there's no extra visas this year to EB from any FB or any bill etc.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_...cal_Limits.pdf

credit to CM of US non immigrant blog.

[nishant2200]

Nishant you can't talk about FB spillover looking at this document. FB spillover is usually disclosed in Q4 of next year.

Is there any other way, any report, any mechanism, where we can find out how much FB was consumed this FY, so that we can estimate in advance. I think DOS or DHS releases some report about the consumption.

[Kanmani]

I am searching for the FB inventory , if there is any, after Nishant pointed out the 2 years FB movement and retrogession in 2010.

Still not found .

[qesehmk]

Yes there is. That report is published both by DHS ... usually by Dec of this year.

Is there any other way, any report, any mechanism, where we can find out how much FB was consumed this FY, so that we can estimate in advance. I think DOS or DHS releases some report about the consumption.

[indiasunil]

Q - Thanks for update.. I am also wondering how the dates are moving on an average nearly ONE YEAR.. Do you think EB1, EB5 & EB2-ROW applications are less OR Spillover is More for these years ? If you take this assumption, the dates should be around March 2008

Fiscal Year: 1992 - Average Movement: -4.4 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1993 - Average Movement: 28.77 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1994 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1995 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1996 - Average Movement: -14.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1997 - Average Movement: 16.23 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1998 - Average Movement: 17.93 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1999 - Average Movement: 40.93 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2000 - Average Movement: -11.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2001 - Average Movement: 23.33 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2002 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2003 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2004 - Average Movement: 12.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2005 - Average Movement: -59.87 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2006 - Average Movement: 31.9 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2007 - Average Movement: 21.87 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2008 - Average Movement: -12.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2009 - Average Movement: 22.07 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2010 - Average Movement: 15.7 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2011 - Average Movement: 11.4 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2012 - Average Movement: 3.03 month(s) so far.

I had replied earlier in the thread. Need to go back and check out.

Sunil, thanks for sharing. Although recapture bill is introduced every year and doesn't go anywhere, I think we need to continue to press for it. Because otherwise nobody is going to speak about it. The movement in October is still a puzzle whether it relates to 2011 visas or 2012 fresh set of visas.

[gcseeker]

Indiasunil

Nice effort putting together the movement across the years.I would view this table a little differently since the movement is not an independent event and is very heavily dependent both on policy(law) and economic conditions. I will not use the datapoints before 2001 since conditions were vastly different.

2007 and 1999 should not be used for the average calculation computations since they are once in a lifetime kind of events. I will not take the heavy retrogression year of 2008 also for similar reasons. Discarding those points still your table demonstrates that dates should atleast move by 6-8 months in the most pessimistic scenario and by 11 months in the medium scenario and even further in the best case scenario.

Since there are headwinds on the spillover side from EB5/EB1 8 months movement might be an very rough case projection purely based on the table above bringing us to the border of Nov/Dec 2007.

All I am trying to do is make an very rough ballpark estimate without delving into the numbers and using the single table above. Generally the trend being followed over an decade should hold up.

Q - Thanks for update.. I am also wondering how the dates are moving on an average nearly ONE YEAR.. Do you think EB1, EB5 & EB2-ROW applications are less OR Spillover is More for these years ? If you take this assumption, the dates should be around March 2008

Fiscal Year: 1992 - Average Movement: -4.4 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1993 - Average Movement: 28.77 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1994 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1995 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1996 - Average Movement: -14.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1997 - Average Movement: 16.23 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1998 - Average Movement: 17.93 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1999 - Average Movement: 40.93 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2000 - Average Movement: -11.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2001 - Average Movement: 23.33 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2002 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2003 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2004 - Average Movement: 12.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2005 - Average Movement: -59.87 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2006 - Average Movement: 31.9 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2007 - Average Movement: 21.87 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2008 - Average Movement: -12.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2009 - Average Movement: 22.07 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2010 - Average Movement: 15.7 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2011 - Average Movement: 11.4 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2012 - Average Movement: 3.03 month(s) so far.

[gc_usa]

Q - Thanks for update.. I am also wondering how the dates are moving on an average nearly ONE YEAR.. Do you think EB1, EB5 & EB2-ROW applications are less OR Spillover is More for these years ? If you take this assumption, the dates should be around March 2008

Fiscal Year: 1992 - Average Movement: -4.4 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1993 - Average Movement: 28.77 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1994 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1995 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1996 - Average Movement: -14.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1997 - Average Movement: 16.23 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1998 - Average Movement: 17.93 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1999 - Average Movement: 40.93 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2000 - Average Movement: -11.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2001 - Average Movement: 23.33 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2002 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2003 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2004 - Average Movement: 12.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2005 - Average Movement: -59.87 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2006 - Average Movement: 31.9 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2007 - Average Movement: 21.87 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2008 - Average Movement: -12.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2009 - Average Movement: 22.07 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2010 - Average Movement: 15.7 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2011 - Average Movement: 11.4 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2012 - Average Movement: 3.03 month(s) so far.

Please go through some thread and do research before giving false hope to new comers. This holds same true that Stock Market was this level on so and so date in a given year so it will be same this year. Will you bet on it ?