EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[TeddyKoochu]

You mean dates are expected to move to move to only Oct -2007 till Sep 2012?Only 3 months movement in a year?

This much is going to be sure shot movement for GC issuance. Dates will likely go further likely Dec 2007 so that a safe pipeline is maintained. I will revise the projection based on how Q1 goes by. Good luck to all.

[indiasunil]

This much is going to be sure shot movement for GC issuance. Dates will likely go further likely Dec 2007 so that a safe pipeline is maintained. I will revise the projection based on how Q1 goes by. Good luck to all.

Based on history, As an average the dates are moving 9 months. Every Quarter for sure the dates will move 3 to 4 months. For FY2012, we can expect dates around March 2008.

[cbpds1]

I assume that all SO numbers that are valid for FY2011 will have to be allocated by 09/30/2011 right.

I fail to understand how CO can assign the spill over numbers to the petitions that will be current in October?

If the trend for F2A & F2B is followed for EB, then we will be expecting forward movement in Q1 followed by retrogression from Q2 (i.e. Jan'12 onwards). The interesting thing to observe is whether the pending I485 and the ones that are already pre-adjudicated will get approved during Q1 of 2012. I will be curious to know if F2A cases with PD up to Apri'10 (which was the cut-off date for Oct'10 bulletin) got approval during the 1st quarter of 2011 (i.e. up to Dec'10). I am trying to reason whether this movement is only to take in new applications (i.e. entirely BTM) or whether we will also see approvals coming through in Q1 of 2012.

[qesehmk]

That may not be true for year 2012 for a couple of reasons (and Teddy already talked about it. ... so I am just explaining it in simpler terms).

1. 3 months movement we saw in october could very well be from 2012 quota. The fact is we don't know yet.
2. 2012 we know will have some headwinds of EB1 where the backlog of EB1 will hit us.
3. EB5 in 2012 may show some modest increase will will be headwind compared to 2011.

So the bottom line is - we may not see same sofad in 2012 as 2011. In 2011 it was around 30-35K depending on whether the October movement was for 2011 or 2012. But most of the gurus here tend to be conservative and so lets assume it was 30K for 2011. So next year because of the 3 factors mentioned above the 2012 SOFAD will be 20-25K. That explains by Teddy thinks getting into 2008 will be tough.

Based on history, As an average the dates are moving 9 months. Every Quarter for sure the dates will move 3 to 4 months. For FY2012, we can expect dates around March 2008.

[sha_kus]

Q , is it ok to say if we have 20K spill over we need 20K qualified applicants which can be 25K USCIS initial applications or 25k spill over which translates to 30K USCIS initial applications..

That may not be true for year 2012 for a couple of reasons (and Teddy already talked about it. ... so I am just explaining it in simpler terms).

1. 3 months movement we saw in october could very well be from 2012 quota. The fact is we don't know yet.
2. 2012 we know will have some headwinds of EB1 where the backlog of EB1 will hit us.
3. EB5 in 2012 may show some modest increase will will be headwind compared to 2011.

So the bottom line is - we may not see same sofad in 2012 as 2011. In 2011 it was around 30-35K depending on whether the October movement was for 2011 or 2012. But most of the gurus here tend to be conservative and so lets assume it was 30K for 2011. So next year because of the 3 factors mentioned above the 2012 SOFAD will be 20-25K. That explains by Teddy thinks getting into 2008 will be tough.

[soggadu]

That may not be true for year 2012 for a couple of reasons (and Teddy already talked about it. ... so I am just explaining it in simpler terms).

1. 3 months movement we saw in october could very well be from 2012 quota. The fact is we don't know yet.
2. 2012 we know will have some headwinds of EB1 where the backlog of EB1 will hit us.
3. EB5 in 2012 may show some modest increase will will be headwind compared to 2011.

So the bottom line is - we may not see same sofad in 2012 as 2011. In 2011 it was around 30-35K depending on whether the October movement was for 2011 or 2012. But most of the gurus here tend to be conservative and so lets assume it was 30K for 2011. So next year because of the 3 factors mentioned above the 2012 SOFAD will be 20-25K. That explains by Teddy thinks getting into 2008 will be tough.

Teddy : Date Oct 2007 se aage nahi jaayega... ha ha ha...
Soggadu: Jaroor jayega... pakka Dec 2007 tak jaayega... he he he....
Q : How can you say that... humare pass data hein, calculations hein, analysis hein, detailed report hein, Insider views/news hein ...tumhare pass kya hein!!!!!!!!
Soggadu : Meere pass MAA hein Q, MAA hein !!!!!!!! Aur MAA ne kaha mujhe issi saal GC milegaaaaaa.....

[suninphx]

That may not be true for year 2012 for a couple of reasons (and Teddy already talked about it. ... so I am just explaining it in simpler terms).

1. 3 months movement we saw in october could very well be from 2012 quota. The fact is we don't know yet.
2. 2012 we know will have some headwinds of EB1 where the backlog of EB1 will hit us.
3. EB5 in 2012 may show some modest increase will will be headwind compared to 2011.

So the bottom line is - we may not see same sofad in 2012 as 2011. In 2011 it was around 30-35K depending on whether the October movement was for 2011 or 2012. But most of the gurus here tend to be conservative and so lets assume it was 30K for 2011. So next year because of the 3 factors mentioned above the 2012 SOFAD will be 20-25K. That explains by Teddy thinks getting into 2008 will be tough.

If the numbers are indeed from FY2012 then whatever happened to 27% rule. I think we were banking big on this rule and being conservative saying that dates wont move.

[suninphx]

teddy : Date oct 2007 se aage nahi jaayega... Ha ha ha...
Soggadu: Jaroor jayega... Pakka dec 2007 tak jaayega... He he he....
Q : How can you say that... Humare pass data hein, calculations hein, analysis hein, detailed report hein, insider views/news hein ...tumhare pass kya hein!!!!!!!!
Soggadu : Meere pass maa hein q, maa hein !!!!!!!! Aur maa ne kaha mujhe issi saal gc milegaaaaaa.....

lol............

[GCDespo]

Soggadu you have the most powerful source

[qesehmk]

Mere paas CO kee MAA hain. Aur usane kaha hain kee Jan 2008 ko bhee GC milega!!!

Teddy : Date Oct 2007 se aage nahi jaayega... ha ha ha...
Soggadu: Jaroor jayega... pakka Dec 2007 tak jaayega... he he he....
Q : How can you say that... humare pass data hein, calculations hein, analysis hein, detailed report hein, Insider views/news hein ...tumhare pass kya hein!!!!!!!!
Soggadu : Meere pass MAA hein Q, MAA hein !!!!!!!! Aur MAA ne kaha mujhe issi saal GC milegaaaaaa.....

If the numbers are indeed from FY2012 then whatever happened to 27% rule. I think we were banking big on this rule and being conservative saying that dates wont move.

Agree. The reality is nobody knows for sure WT-Heck happened here. So we r just being conservative. Excuse me for my language.

[pichkaari]

Junta,

Let me first say that this site has been tremendously useful, especially for EB2 India people like me who’ve been stuck for the last few years. I’ve followed the VB prediction discussions over the last 2 years.

I have an approved I-140(EB2 India PD 9/21/2007) from my previous employer. I recently changed jobs and have an approved PERM with my new employer. I’m about to file for my I-140(retaining the old date), and was undecided between Consular Processing / Adjustment Of Status. I remember hearing in the past that CP was much quicker and that people got screwed through the AOS route. However, I’ve also been reading lately that these issues have been resolved and now wait times through AOS are pretty quick(2-4 months). CP might take a little longer now?

What do you guys think? If we get a BTM for a month or two, won’t the CP expedite the GC? I’m also concerned that in a BTM, VO might process applications in a random manner. My company lawyers are strongly recommending the regular AOS route.

Meri uljhan ka upaye bataiye!

[qblogfan]

I agree. I think they have to have some buffer between SOFAD and the total demand. If next year SOFAD is 20k, they may admit people to reach 25k.

Ideally I think 10k is a safer buffer between SOFAD and demand. If next year we can get 20k SOFAD, CO should admit people to reach 30k total demand. If next year we can get 30k SOFAD, he should admit people to reach 40k.

If I were him, I would have moved PD to 12/31/2008. That will give me 40k demand. It's safer and better.

It doesn't make any sense to be so conservative. EAD/AP will not be useful at all for the folks who can get GC in 3 months after submission of 485.

For example, a PWMB guy missed July 2007 event and he just submitted 485 in May and got approved in August. What's the point of getting EAD/AP for this guy?

CO should move PD to 2009 and let many people enjoy AP/EAD for 1 year and people will be much happier and USCIS can get more money. It will be a win-win situation.

Q , is it ok to say if we have 20K spill over we need 20K qualified applicants which can be 25K USCIS initial applications or 25k spill over which translates to 30K USCIS initial applications..

[MeraNoAayega]

Junta,

Let me first say that this site has been tremendously useful, especially for EB2 India people like me who’ve been stuck for the last few years. I’ve followed the VB prediction discussions over the last 2 years.

I have an approved I-140(EB2 India PD 9/21/2007) from my previous employer. I recently changed jobs and have an approved PERM with my new employer. I’m about to file for my I-140(retaining the old date), and was undecided between Consular Processing / Adjustment Of Status. I remember hearing in the past that CP was much quicker and that people got screwed through the AOS route. However, I’ve also been reading lately that these issues have been resolved and now wait times through AOS are pretty quick(2-4 months). CP might take a little longer now?

What do you guys think? If we get a BTM for a month or two, won’t the CP expedite the GC? I’m also concerned that in a BTM, VO might process applications in a random manner. My company lawyers are strongly recommending the regular AOS route.

Meri uljhan ka upaye bataiye!

imho aos route...

[gcq]

If the numbers are indeed from FY2012 then whatever happened to 27% rule. I think we were banking big on this rule and being conservative saying that dates wont move.

IMO we should force CO to give explanation each month in clear terms why he made the decision. He is a government official and he owes to the public to explain that his decisions are in line with law. Instead of writing speculations and lies in visa bulletin, he should write clear explanation going forward.

For eg he could write.
"There were X number of visas available for EB2 for the month of October based on this calculation which is in line with the law. There is known demand from USCIS for Y number of visas. There is a demand of Z visa numbers from consulates. So the dates were moved by N number of days. ............"

[qblogfan]

NIU has contacted him many times. Every time he replied us bull shit and meaningless excuses. We even contacted his boss and his boss is the same.

He never really understood the law and he is changing every year.

Before 2007 he used spillover on EB3 and he changed to use spillover on EB2 after 2007. Did he give us an explanation why he changed it? He changed the law or he changed his understanding of the law? As far as I know, the law was not changed in 2007. It is such a serious matter and he changed it based on his "new understanding". I can't believe it.

He didn't do any quarter spillover before and now maybe he is doing it. Nobody knows. It's a black hole and no matter what you ask him, he gives you the same meaningless bull shit.

IMO we should force CO to give explanation each month in clear terms why he made the decision. He is a government official and he owes to the public to explain that his decisions are in line with law. Instead of writing speculations and lies in visa bulletin, he should write clear explanation going forward.

For eg he could write.
"There were X number of visas available for EB2 for the month of October based on this calculation which is in line with the law. There is known demand from USCIS for Y number of visas. There is a demand of Z visa numbers from consulates. So the dates were moved by N number of days. ............"

[needid]

When everybody expected no movement, CO moved it by 3 months, "To generate demand".As far as i know the PERM approvals were quick in 2007. Whoever was in US with approved PERM would not hesitate to file I-485.My PERM was approved in 21 days and i know cases with 1day and within a week approvals. So move to July 15th according to me does not generate any significant demand( it may generate a 100 or 200). If CO is not moving further in next month or two, I strongly believe the move in Oct is to only to consume 2011 leftover.

if the intention is really to generate demand then it should keep moving as Gurus predicted upto Dec 2007 in Q1 of FY 2012.

[suninphx]

Mere paas CO kee MAA hain. Aur usane kaha hain kee Jan 2008 ko bhee GC milega!!!




Agree. The reality is nobody knows for sure WT-Heck happened here. So we r just being conservative. Excuse me for my language.

Q- you are fine. Also I do not have any problems with some one being conservative (over conservative sometimes). ..that does not hurt me. With PD of late 2009 I know I have long way to go. Having said that I will be comfortable buying conservative views when they are backed by data from various perpectives. (e.g. porting , actual convertible PERM-> I140 ratio in light on recession etc)

[qblogfan]

ATL center was slower than Chicago center. Not all the applicants could submit 485 after PERM.

Based on our people's analysis, this VB movement can generate 2k-3k demand.

Mr.CO is over conservative! 2k-3k doesn't make too much difference! If he wants real demand, he needs to move it into 2008 and it will give him 30k-40k!

When everybody expected no movement, CO moved it by 3 months, "To generate demand".As far as i know the PERM approvals were quick in 2007. Whoever was in US with approved PERM would not hesitate to file I-485.My PERM was approved in 21 days and i know cases with 1day and within a week approvals. So move to July 15th according to me does not generate any significant demand( it may generate a 100 or 200). If CO is not moving further in next month or two, I strongly believe the move in Oct is to only to consume 2011 leftover.

if the intention is really to generate demand then it should keep moving as Gurus predicted upto Dec 2007 in Q1 of FY 2012.

[Gclongwait]

2007 PD
Total perm Jan 01 to apr 14 - 7721

Total perm apr 15 to aug 17 - 5900
Total perm aug 18 to dec31 - 15356

Total EB2IC 485 Jan 01 to Apr 14 - 7662

Total EB2IC 485 Apr 15 to Dec 31 - ?


If 7721 perm supplied 7662 485s
Then remaining 21256 perm is expected to supply around 21K IC 485s

This is my way of approaching .

I tend to prefer this approach especially since we do have stats for a reasonable period now. If we look at absolute number then there are too many unknowns to consider (porting, multiple perms, double filing within a family, ppl dropping out, denials at different stages etc etc) for which we randomly assign %ages which may be way off. Although 1 year is still kind of less, but when dealing in numbers in 10's of thousands a trend should continue.

[superdesi2100]

Ron Gotcher says:

Please keep in mind that the USCIS has absolutely nothing to do with setting Visa Bulletin cutoff dates. This is probably a good thing, since they seem to have problems counting numbers above ten without taking off their shoes. USCIS statistics as an old and feeble joke within the immigration community. They don't really count cases, they seem to throw up whatever numbers they want - irrespective of reality.

The principal issue that has prevented India EB2 movement over the past couple of years has been upgrades by people with older EB3 priority dates who subsequently qualified for EB2. According to the State Department, that surge seems to have abated and we aren't seeing many of those cases these days.

In my mind, the next problem is going to be the backlog of cases with post-August 17, 2007 priority dates. Those folks have been waiting years to file their AOS applications and when the India EB2 cutoff date reaches that point, expect to see very large numbers of new filings. This will slow down movement.

http://www.immigration-information.c...backlog-15263/

[gcq]

Don't believe Ron when it comes to CO. Both are buddies.

[gc_usa]

Ron Gotcher says:

Please keep in mind that the USCIS has absolutely nothing to do with setting Visa Bulletin cutoff dates. This is probably a good thing, since they seem to have problems counting numbers above ten without taking off their shoes. USCIS statistics as an old and feeble joke within the immigration community. They don't really count cases, they seem to throw up whatever numbers they want - irrespective of reality.

The principal issue that has prevented India EB2 movement over the past couple of years has been upgrades by people with older EB3 priority dates who subsequently qualified for EB2. According to the State Department, that surge seems to have abated and we aren't seeing many of those cases these days.

In my mind, the next problem is going to be the backlog of cases with post-August 17, 2007 priority dates. Those folks have been waiting years to file their AOS applications and when the India EB2 cutoff date reaches that point, expect to see very large numbers of new filings. This will slow down movement.

http://www.immigration-information.c...backlog-15263/

I don't think he does better job than us when it comes to calculation. He may be great lawyer but not number cruncher. How come porting was high in deep recession and now all of a sudden go away ? He is same like AILA who wanted to generate more business by saying port baby port. He is trying to send out message to all EB3 to port and engage him.

[gcseeker]

Ron's predictions have always been wide off the mark. He does zero with respect to analytical predictions and only wants to attract more business on the porting side. I would not attach much importance to his predictions.He might ultimately claim victory in Sep 2012 because anyhow numbers might not move beyond Dec 2007 ( based on the analysis so far by the guru's) and he will get to claim all this was due to the porting falling off and an golden opportunity exists for his customers to rush into the pipeline.

Ron Gotcher says:

Please keep in mind that the USCIS has absolutely nothing to do with setting Visa Bulletin cutoff dates. This is probably a good thing, since they seem to have problems counting numbers above ten without taking off their shoes. USCIS statistics as an old and feeble joke within the immigration community. They don't really count cases, they seem to throw up whatever numbers they want - irrespective of reality.

The principal issue that has prevented India EB2 movement over the past couple of years has been upgrades by people with older EB3 priority dates who subsequently qualified for EB2. According to the State Department, that surge seems to have abated and we aren't seeing many of those cases these days.

In my mind, the next problem is going to be the backlog of cases with post-August 17, 2007 priority dates. Those folks have been waiting years to file their AOS applications and when the India EB2 cutoff date reaches that point, expect to see very large numbers of new filings. This will slow down movement.

http://www.immigration-information.c...backlog-15263/

[qesehmk]

I disagree on both points with Ron G. We haven't observed portings to the level it ws feared. At best it is 4K per year at worst it could be 2K. On the other hand, as per 485 filings.... since PD is determined by when somebody files labor rather than when labor is approved, then the 2007 remaining 485 filings if heavy will only be marginally heavy rather than anything very signifcant.

Not to discourage you or anybody from posting from other website ... (we always welcome objective information and encourage giving due credit); but usually our forum members do pretty good job sifting through data and providing a reaosnable estimate of how dates will progress.

Ron Gotcher says:

Please keep in mind that the USCIS has absolutely nothing to do with setting Visa Bulletin cutoff dates. This is probably a good thing, since they seem to have problems counting numbers above ten without taking off their shoes. USCIS statistics as an old and feeble joke within the immigration community. They don't really count cases, they seem to throw up whatever numbers they want - irrespective of reality.

The principal issue that has prevented India EB2 movement over the past couple of years has been upgrades by people with older EB3 priority dates who subsequently qualified for EB2. According to the State Department, that surge seems to have abated and we aren't seeing many of those cases these days.

In my mind, the next problem is going to be the backlog of cases with post-August 17, 2007 priority dates. Those folks have been waiting years to file their AOS applications and when the India EB2 cutoff date reaches that point, expect to see very large numbers of new filings. This will slow down movement.

http://www.immigration-information.c...backlog-15263/

[superdesi2100]

I disagree on both points with Ron G. We haven't observed portings to the level it ws feared. At best it is 4K per year at worst it could be 2K. On the other hand, as per 485 filings.... since PD is determined by when somebody files labor rather than when labor is approved, then the 2007 remaining 485 filings if heavy will only be marginally heavy rather than anything very signifcant.

Not to discourage you or anybody from posting from other website ... (we always welcome objective information and encourage giving due credit); but usually our forum members do pretty good job sifting through data and providing a reaosnable estimate of how dates will progress.

I trust you guys on analysis than anybody else out there. No body else out there other than you - Q - predicted July 2007 priority date for EB2.

I found it hard to believe what Ron G had to say and hence I posted it with the portion in bold. I will be careful posting from other sources in future.