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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #7001
    Sensei
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Michigan
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    95
    Gurus...one question.
    My wife is on H4 and planning to start her residency next summer (~ June-July 2012). I am wondering if it is safe for us to assume that she will have atleast EAD in hand by next June (thus no need for H1 or J1 visa). To have EAD in hand by June 2012, when is the latest I should be able to file for I-485 (My PD is 28 Sep 2007). Thanks!

  2. #7002
    Sophomore
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    Washington D.C
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    20
    Quote Originally Posted by druvraj View Post
    My PD date is feb 2008 and after the Sept bulletin I have prepared myself for 2 years wait (Which I might have to still) but when such news comes this becomes a true roller coaster ride which is what I hate. I will certainly not complain if I get it earlier but if not then the expectation becomes hard to manage. All in all I guess everyone who intents to immigrate has to go through this ride. Congrats to all to got it and hope rest of us get it soon.

    Mine is 6th Jan 2008 . Altough I know the wait for GC is 2 years but I really hope to get EAD & AP much faster so I can attend my brothers engagement in March next year with no worry of getting H1 stamping done. Do wishes really come true ??

  3. #7003
    Guru veni001's Avatar
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    Jan 2011
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    Quote Originally Posted by rahil1 View Post
    I am current!!!!
    rahil,
    Congrats!

  4. #7004
    Guru veni001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rdsingh79 View Post
    Gurus...one question.
    My wife is on H4 and planning to start her residency next summer (~ June-July 2012). I am wondering if it is safe for us to assume that she will have atleast EAD in hand by next June (thus no need for H1 or J1 visa). To have EAD in hand by June 2012, when is the latest I should be able to file for I-485 (My PD is 28 Sep 2007). Thanks!
    rdsingh,
    Chances for EAD are 100%.
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  5. #7005
    congratulations!

    I understand your feelings! It's great to know you are current!

    Quote Originally Posted by Monica12 View Post
    Buddy, you are not alone...I'm crying too and can't stop This is such an emotional roller-coaster !

  6. #7006
    Congratulations Pch, Leo, Gcdespo, Rahil, Gcseeker, 03may07 and anyone else that I'm forgetting right now
    Thank you Soggadu, Veni, beiber, mesan behen, Q, Qblogfan and others
    Here's sincerely hoping we all get our GC soon and there's more & more movement in the coming visa bulletins *fingers crossed*
    Something tells me there should be more movement in Nov and Dec vb Hopefully, my gut feeling is right....

  7. #7007
    Teddy our friend you are almost there. Q, Spec, Veni, Nishant, & all my fellow comrades; thanks for all your great & self-less work. This journey will soon end but I'll always remember our friends.

    “If life's journey be endless where is its goal? The answer is, it is everywhere. We are in a palace which has no end, but which we have reached. By exploring it and extending our relationship with it we are ever making it more and more our own. The i” - Rabindranath Tagore quotes (Indian Poet, Playwright and Essayist, Won the Nobel Prize for Literature in 1913, 1861-1941)

    Life's full of surprises & reminds us not to loose hope. By the way, I just got current. Very emotional moment I have not visited India since last 10 years.

    Peace be upon you!
    Last edited by imechanix; 09-10-2011 at 05:21 PM.

  8. #7008
    Agree w Veni. EAD 100% by Jun 2012. GC 100% by Sep 2012.

    Quote Originally Posted by rdsingh79 View Post
    Gurus...one question.
    My wife is on H4 and planning to start her residency next summer (~ June-July 2012). I am wondering if it is safe for us to assume that she will have atleast EAD in hand by next June (thus no need for H1 or J1 visa). To have EAD in hand by June 2012, when is the latest I should be able to file for I-485 (My PD is 28 Sep 2007). Thanks!
    Quote Originally Posted by imechanix View Post
    By the way, I just got current. Very emotional moment I have not visited India since last 10 years.
    imechanix congrats to you too!! Haven't visited india in 10 years? Dont mean to intrude if personal problems. But otherwise why?
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  9. #7009
    I am glad to know you can visit India after 10 years. I understand the pain of waiting.

    Quote Originally Posted by imechanix View Post
    Teddy our friend you are almost there. Q, Spec, Veni, Nishant, & all my fellow comrades; thanks for all your great & self-less work. This journey will soon end but I'll always remember our friends.

    “If life's journey be endless where is its goal? The answer is, it is everywhere. We are in a palace which has no end, but which we have reached. By exploring it and extending our relationship with it we are ever making it more and more our own. The i” - Rabindranath Tagore quotes (Indian Poet, Playwright and Essayist, Won the Nobel Prize for Literature in 1913, 1861-1941)

    Life's full of surprises & reminds us not to loose hope. By the way, I just got current. Very emotional moment I have not visited India since last 10 years.

    Peace be upon you!

  10. #7010
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    imechanix congrats to you too!! Haven't visited india in 10 years? Dont mean to intrude if personal problems. But otherwise why?
    My firm lawyers, boss and relatives advised me not to leave until I receive my GC due to my Muslim name & possibility of being subjected to extra scrutiny and getting stuck in India. Few of my relatives having similar names got stuck for 6 months and more. Its unfortunate but i deeply regret and cannot forget the innocent lives lost on 9/11.

  11. #7011
    All the best. Thanks for ur kind words.

    I am still wrecking my brains on this movement. What is the idea behind it, what is in CO's mind?!

    1. Is it possible that this can utilize numbers from FY 2011 in case visas were going to be wasted
    2. Is this for quarterly SO projection
    3. Is this just to get PWMB in, and based on how many PWMB come in, CO will do the next intake movement.

    Some lessons I think we can take:
    1. CO can and will move dates to take in inventory, purely justifying it on this very reason, to generate demand, he doesn't really need a trigger or a big deal reason
    2. CO is sensitive to workload on USCIS and movements will be in short bursts, I feel
    3. CO is aware of PWMB concept
    4. CO has a handle with CIS on how many 485s come in, these new 485s will take sometime to show up in demand data, yet the language in VB indicates, he wants to take in intake until there is enough demand

    Doubts:
    1. What is enough demand?
    2. What is the plan behind honoring this 3 month movement, since this particular territory is mainly of pre-adjudicated 485s. Is he alloting something leftover from previous FY, is he doing quarterly SO early on, is he giving out the 5.5k qouta in one shot to get to the tipping point, and .... Etc
    3. What will be timing of his next move

    Quote Originally Posted by imechanix View Post
    Teddy our friend you are almost there. Q, Spec, Veni, Nishant, & all my fellow comrades; thanks for all your great & self-less work. This journey will soon end but I'll always remember our friends.

    “If life's journey be endless where is its goal? The answer is, it is everywhere. We are in a palace which has no end, but which we have reached. By exploring it and extending our relationship with it we are ever making it more and more our own. The i” - Rabindranath Tagore quotes (Indian Poet, Playwright and Essayist, Won the Nobel Prize for Literature in 1913, 1861-1941)

    Life's full of surprises & reminds us not to loose hope. By the way, I just got current. Very emotional moment I have not visited India since last 10 years.

    Peace be upon you!

  12. #7012
    Quote Originally Posted by imechanix View Post
    My firm lawyers, boss and relatives advised me not to leave until I receive my GC due to my Muslim name & possibility of being subjected to extra scrutiny and getting stuck in India. Few of my relatives having similar names got stuck for 6 months and more. Its unfortunate but i deeply regret and cannot forget the innocent lives lost on 9/11.
    I understand. One of my colleague is stuck in stamping, and we are guessing its because he is muslim, and from Kashmir. Ours is good earning private software company, there is no consulting, no one else has faced any problems ever.

  13. #7013
    Many Chinese H1B workers and F1 students got stuck in China for one year or two years. Finally they gave up and found jobs back home.

    It depends on which area you are working or studying at. If your area is sensitive and high tech, you will be checked for sure. This is their method to cut off your communications with your home country.

    Quote Originally Posted by imechanix View Post
    My firm lawyers, boss and relatives advised me not to leave until I receive my GC due to my Muslim name & possibility of being subjected to extra scrutiny and getting stuck in India. Few of my relatives having similar names got stuck for 6 months and more. Its unfortunate but i deeply regret and cannot forget the innocent lives lost on 9/11.

  14. #7014
    imechanix

    I am emotional right now after reading your post . Congrats .

    Nishant I wonder the same is running in my mind too.

  15. #7015
    imechanix .... I feel for you my friend. May you be able to go back and visit family and friends ASAP. Your story is one of the extreme stories I came across on this blog. I can't even begin to imagine your pain.

    Back in 2001 Sep 12, 2001 was our big employment day at our MBA school. The 911 wound so fresh that none of the Indian students got even one single interview inspite of the stellar careers they had. The year before every indian had received min 3 offers and the average salary offered was 115K+bonus. In our batch finally only 2-3 indians bagged offers by graduation and the rest took anywhere between 3-12 months to find their first job. Chinese students faired even worse.

    911 was a terrible tragedy. And it really affected us in a way we were not prepared for.

    Quote Originally Posted by imechanix View Post
    My firm lawyers, boss and relatives advised me not to leave until I receive my GC due to my Muslim name & possibility of being subjected to extra scrutiny and getting stuck in India. Few of my relatives having similar names got stuck for 6 months and more. Its unfortunate but i deeply regret and cannot forget the innocent lives lost on 9/11.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  16. #7016

    Here are my thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    All the best. Thanks for ur kind words.

    I am still wrecking my brains on this movement. What is the idea behind it, what is in CO's mind?!

    1. Is it possible that this can utilize numbers from FY 2011 in case visas were going to be wasted
    2. Is this for quarterly SO projection
    3. Is this just to get PWMB in, and based on how many PWMB come in, CO will do the next intake movement.

    Some lessons I think we can take:
    1. CO can and will move dates to take in inventory, purely justifying it on this very reason, to generate demand, he doesn't really need a trigger or a big deal reason
    2. CO is sensitive to workload on USCIS and movements will be in short bursts, I feel
    3. CO is aware of PWMB concept
    4. CO has a handle with CIS on how many 485s come in, these new 485s will take sometime to show up in demand data, yet the language in VB indicates, he wants to take in intake until there is enough demand

    Doubts:
    1. What is enough demand?
    2. What is the plan behind honoring this 3 month movement, since this particular territory is mainly of pre-adjudicated 485s. Is he alloting something leftover from previous FY, is he doing quarterly SO early on, is he giving out the 5.5k qouta in one shot to get to the tipping point, and .... Etc
    3. What will be timing of his next move

    CO has taken full EB2 I/C supply and applied in first month of year. If you look at this movement , it is 6k as per USCIS data which is little bit higher than what DOS publishes every month ( Demand Data ). Now in Dec month CO may assume that there will be at least 3k spill over in year 2012. which he may apply in Dec 2011 and will move date to what ever point he thinks. ( No one knows how much he thinks that it can be reachable by End of 2012 ), this is where NVC theory comes in picture. Once USCIS's demand is 0 he will use those Cp cases and allocate extra visas assuming spill over for 2012 and move date ).

    If he does this in Dec it will take 4-6 months ( USCIS can make I 485 processing time to 6 months ) for USCIS's pre adjudicate those cases by June / july 2012 and ready to consume Spill over visas. This way he can stop date to where it was in Dec 2011 till July 2011 and since he is conservative date may not retro in Spe 2012 but little bit may fall over to EB3 or he may do little adjustment in July 2012 and move date accordingly ) This works perfect since USCIS has already pre adjudicated most of cases before July 2012 and in last 3 months they only need to offset little bit and approve in 3 months ).

  17. #7017
    I know many Chinese folks stayed here for 15 years before their first visit to China. H1B visa for Chinese nationals was only valid for 3 months and 2 entries and F1 visa was 6 months and 1 entry. It's extremely difficult for us to travel and visit.

    Sometimes I feel it's not worthy of this long wait. How many 10 years or 15 years can we have in our life? How much valuable family reunion have we missed?

    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    imechanix .... I feel for you my friend. May you be able to go back and visit family and friends ASAP. Your story is one of the extreme stories I came across on this blog. I can't even begin to imagine your pain.

    Back in 2001 Sep 12, 2001 was our big employment day at our MBA school. The 911 wound so fresh that none of the Indian students got even one single interview inspite of the stellar careers they had. The year before every indian had received min 3 offers and the average salary offered was 115K+bonus. In our batch finally only 2-3 indians bagged offers by graduation and the rest took anywhere between 3-12 months to find their first job. Chinese students faired even worse.

    911 was a terrible tragedy. And it really affected us in a way we were not prepared for.

  18. #7018
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    I think for you it could be 50-50. We will know better when Oct inventory comes out.




    As much as we try to be objective .... to be honest there is still a lot that we don't know (e.g. current USCIS consumption by country and category) and how much labor and 140 pipeline is actionable. And thirdly something we will never know .... what's the intent that USCIS and DoS are carrying!

    On another note - DOW & S&P 500 future earnings may be overstated. But I am layman's layman on that subject... so ignore my ignorance if I am wrong
    Q, Nishant, After the good october bulletin, did your opinion change about how soon we can reach jan 1, 2008. My wife is looking for a job, but due to our location she is unable to find one.

  19. #7019
    Quote Originally Posted by qblogfan View Post
    I know many Chinese folks stayed here for 15 years before their first visit to China. H1B visa for Chinese nationals was only valid for 3 months and 2 entries and F1 visa was 6 months and 1 entry. It's extremely difficult for us to travel and visit.
    qblogfan,

    One of our company directors visited his home-country (china) after 15 yrs - education, postdoc, GC, and all. Hope all this agony ends soon for everyone.

    - M
    Last edited by makmohan; 09-10-2011 at 10:11 PM. Reason: typos

  20. #7020
    Thanks! I hope both Chinese and Indian folks can get freedom soon!

    Hope the VB can advance into 2008 or 2009 soon!

    Quote Originally Posted by makmohan View Post
    qblogfan,

    One of our company directors visited his home-country (china) after 15 yrs - education, postdoc, GC, and all. Hope all this agony ends soon for everyone.

    - M

  21. #7021
    Quote Originally Posted by rdsingh79 View Post
    Gurus...one question.
    My wife is on H4 and planning to start her residency next summer (~ June-July 2012). I am wondering if it is safe for us to assume that she will have atleast EAD in hand by next June (thus no need for H1 or J1 visa). To have EAD in hand by June 2012, when is the latest I should be able to file for I-485 (My PD is 28 Sep 2007). Thanks!
    Singh, you have 100% chances with 0% guarentee.

  22. #7022
    I saw that in July of 2007, there was a backlog reduction plan and PD then became current. Now as of yesterdays visa bulletin the PD is 15 July 2007.
    Can we expect that it would get current soon again?

  23. #7023
    Quote Originally Posted by sugada View Post
    I saw that in July of 2007, there was a backlog reduction plan and PD then became current. Now as of yesterdays visa bulletin the PD is 15 July 2007.
    Can we expect that it would get current soon again?
    no it won't be current or even may not go into 2008 this year (2012).... Don't keep false hopes....this forum is all about reality and calculations ( don't ask me what I am doing here then) than rumours.... But anyway welcome to the forum....

  24. #7024
    Quote Originally Posted by Monica12 View Post
    OMG !!!! Is this really true????? cannot believe it.. I think I just got current.................Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee !!!!
    Q, you were spot on... about the July 15 date in Sep...just that it happened in Oct instead......thanks so much for keeping my hopes alive
    Soggadu..buddy...can you please change your avatar now and keep dancing ;0
    Congrats Veni ! Teddy, hang in there...hope you get current very soon !
    hey moniiiiiiiicccccaaaaaaaa ohhh GC waaaliiiiii..... Chillllooo rama dudete.... Feeling good for you..... Hey this is my latest happy avatar.... Q's princess likes it .... So I am gonna stick with this for a while .... Once you all get ur GC's..... I will change into new avatar..... Until then .... Sit back and enjoy the ride.....
    Last edited by soggadu; 09-11-2011 at 07:44 AM.

  25. #7025
    Quote Originally Posted by dec2007 View Post
    Q, Nishant, After the good october bulletin, did your opinion change about how soon we can reach jan 1, 2008. My wife is looking for a job, but due to our location she is unable to find one.
    The intent looks positive to me to have an intake for ripe demand by SO season. Looks like they are going to do intake soon, they have set the stage in this VB. I think should happen at the very late in Q2 at least.

    How much, and in short bursts or one big, that's up in air.

    A rough guess would be an intake till Dec 2007 end is absolutely needed, and to ensure meeting this years 30k SOFAD, till april 2008.

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