EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qblogfan]

Thanks for your analysis. It's very helpful.

Thanks for all the comments.

I don't want to add Porting as a monthly figure because, depending on the amount of SOFAD and how far the dates move, the Porting number changes too much. In reality, because of earlier PDs, it will be a reasonably fixed number.

Perhaps this makes it clearer. The figures are for EB2-IC.

The numbers assume all PWMB to the end of March are approved. The figure going into FY2012 is assumed to be 8,332 (derived from the USCIS Inventory).

The monthly figures include the proportion of the 8,332 remaining at the end of FY2011 (spread proportionately to the monthly USCIS figures) and any PWMB whose PERM was Certified after August 17 2007.

Again, the figures are based on 60% EB2, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio, 85% of 2007 applications remain (90% for 2008).

Add your assumed Porting figure to the numbers e.g. if you think Porting will be 5,000, then to reach the end of December 2007 will require 25,888 visas (SOFAD).

Remaining from FY2011 - 8,332 (spread April 15 to Aug)

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

[gcseeker]

Spec and Q

Thanks for taking the time for the quick analysis.It would help most of us to use the worst worst case estimate so that people with PD's post July 2007 can take important career decisions. With both of your inputs and if the Oct inventory reveals porting is peaking at 6K ( Worst case again ....) and EB1 usage surges...

It would mean since the SOFAD being expected for next year ( 5K from each category +3k) so maybe 18K worst case will only clear cases untill Oct 2007 by March 2012.

And since CO is now using new strategy of only advancing dates very carefully would this mean 2007 inventory will be cleared by end of 2012 .(Just looking for the worst worst case analysis ...thinking it might spill a little over into 2008 ) .

Also the CO would have to find an way around the policy of not allocating more than 27% in a single quarter for even this to happen...I guess.

Thanks for all the comments.

Add your assumed Porting figure to the numbers e.g. if you think Porting will be 5,000, then to reach the end of December 2007 will require 25,888 visas (SOFAD).

Agree completely. And I do not have an answer to that. I have only laid out the thought process. If you think about it .... "Jan-08" is immaterial. Whatever that month is ..... call is "X",
If SOFAD is less than 28K then: X < Jan 2008
if SOFAD is more than 28K then : X > Jan 2008

But DoS must move dates to X by Mar 2012. That's the argument.

[10102007]

It is very dispiriting. I want to sit and whine, but again I'm in this position by choice. So only have myself to blame. It was almost like the scene were the big black cloud comes rolling in and passes off without raining in Lagaan.

[whereismygclost]

I have PD of 03-OCT-07 EB2-I. Frankly looking at the numbers needed to reach my date to be around 20K(15K +5K porting) based on Spec's table,I am seriously rethinking if I will be lucky in 2012 ,,or is it more like 2013? Sorry but I wanted to lay this out.What do you guys think?

It is very dispiriting. I want to sit and whine, but again I'm in this position by choice. So only have myself to blame. It was almost like the scene were the big black cloud comes rolling in and passes off without raining in Lagaan.

[veni001]

Spec and Q

Thanks for taking the time for the quick analysis.It would help most of us to use the worst worst case estimate so that people with PD's post July 2007 can take important career decisions. With both of your inputs and if the Oct inventory reveals porting is peaking at 6K ( Worst case again ....) and EB1 usage surges...

It would mean since the SOFAD being expected for next year ( 5K from each category +3k) so maybe 18K worst case will only clear cases untill Oct 2007 by March 2012.
And since CO is now using new strategy of only advancing dates very carefully would this mean 2007 inventory will be cleared by end of 2012 .(Just looking for the worst worst case analysis ...thinking it might spill a little over into 2008 ) .

Also the CO would have to find an way around the policy of not allocating more than 27% in a single quarter for even this to happen...I guess.

gcseeker,

I think you mean by September 2012!

[michaelclarke]

I believe the issue is with the number of Visas DOS is issuing - simply put 140K is just not enough based on the high demand. Hopefully the next Fiscal year the number of total Visas that will be allocated will be much more.

[doctorp]

Hi, I am new to the blog,
here is my prediction for 2012,
as far as i understand INA and what i think DOS does, what CO will do is advance slowly for the 1st 2 quarters per normal country limit, that may get the demand down to about 5 K, as there will be porting and also some pwmb. in april they will have much more clear idea as to what the appx SOFAD is going to be, thats the earliest they will do some spillover, historically they have not done it before that ever. now it may take till june 2012 till they finish that 5 k.
Now as far as my reading goes DOS gets its demand from NVC as well as USCIS, and USCIS demands a number only after 485 is adjudicated/approved. so only known demand is NVC ( appx 4372 till today) now whenever they decide to open up the gates they have to go by visible demand, ( thus the 2007 fiasco, DOS knew tht there was demand, but no visible demand was there)
i think post 2007 they have improved their act and they communicate well, but there is no indication that uscis knows the exact breakdown of 140 as they do for 485 ( i read somewhere that they are working on it and may be ready by april 2012) also even if they know the number for the 140 extrapolation from there to 485 is a big guess, and whatever they do if uscis gets inendentated with thousands of 485 they will not be able to approve anything before 6 months, so the only way forward in my opinion is to go by NVC demand and give a big BTM and retrogress in oct 2012, i doubt there can be SFM after aug 07, as the demand from USCIS is unknown and it takes 6 months to develop the pipeline
please comment

[10102007]

I have PD of 03-OCT-07 EB2-I. Frankly looking at the numbers needed to reach my date to be around 20K(15K +5K porting) based on Spec's table,I am seriously rethinking if I will be lucky in 2012 ,,or is it more like 2013? Sorry but I wanted to lay this out.What do you guys think?

I don't want to think it will be in 2013. I hope it happens by fallnext year.

[whereismygclost]

Hope you are correct my friend. But the big unknown is SOFAD for 2012 ... if it is not close to 20K ,it's curtains for us in 2012 ..

I don't want to think it will be in 2013. I hope it happens by fallnext year.

[harick]

I liked the idea suggested by Spec and others on having a new thread of next year. Instead of going to a new thread I think it woud be better to move all posts starting from #4 to the comments entered till 08/08/2011 to a read only thread for future reference and keep this thread for next year's predictions.

I think due to high popularity of this specific thread, the search index for this thread in all search engines would be high. This would make it easy for any new comers to search this thread. If we start a new thread may be it might not be as easily searchable as this one.

Just a thought.

[velugc]

I don't want to think it will be in 2013. I hope it happens by fallnext year.

PD date looks close (6 months) but we are too far...

[needid]

Thanks Spec, But this is demand,

Projected Visa Allocation(Allow to file I-485 and eligibility for EAD,AP):
Supply 5K is guaranteed. SOFAD does not happen till July( No March, No April, Let us not have false hopes), They'll do only in July.Even in July they need to keep aside some number for unexpected surge of ROW. So in July they'll make it Current for EB2 IC. If they don't have any application in their kitty, they make it Current, that is what they have been doing, that is what they do. They are not doing it for all categories as in 2007, only for extra two(I,C) in EB2. I don't think they'll buy into concept of controlled forward movement.

Actual Visa Allocation*Green Card):
Stop anywhere in 2007

One thing is true, They don't care how it effects us, Their decision is based purely on how they did it in the past.Even with greater visibility of data, there are unknown especially demand of EB2 ROW and EB1, so they go buy history rather than increased visibility.

I followed prediction by Q,Teddy since IV times , 2010 it was spot on, 2011 we bought into the idea of early spill over implies more spillover. Pre-May projection by Teddy was spot on April 2007, that what he said.

Thanks for all the comments.

I don't want to add Porting as a monthly figure because, depending on the amount of SOFAD and how far the dates move, the Porting number changes too much. In reality, because of earlier PDs, it will be a reasonably fixed number.

Perhaps this makes it clearer. The figures are for EB2-IC.

The numbers assume all PWMB to the end of March are approved. The figure going into FY2012 is assumed to be 8,332 (derived from the USCIS Inventory).

The monthly figures include the proportion of the 8,332 remaining at the end of FY2011 (spread proportionately to the monthly USCIS figures) and any PWMB whose PERM was Certified after August 17 2007.

Again, the figures are based on 60% EB2, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio, 85% of 2007 applications remain (90% for 2008).

Add your assumed Porting figure to the numbers e.g. if you think Porting will be 5,000, then to reach the end of December 2007 will require 25,888 visas (SOFAD).

Remaining from FY2011 - 8,332 (spread April 15 to Aug)

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

[makmohan]

I think the whole PWMB and EB3->EB2 Porting demand is hyped. It's very hard to see any empirical evidence on the ground for the kind of demand experts are suggesting.

PWMB can be split between EB3 and EB2. EB3 PWMB do not affect any EB2 calculations. Most of EB2 PWMBs are the ones who either could not get their labor cleared in time or they waited for marriage related reasons. I think this number won't be similar to what experts are projecting.

EB3->EB2 porting looks very rosy in theory but it is equally difficult to achieve on ground. I have seen so many people "trying" for porting but haven't seen anyone really successful in doing that yet. I agree that there is a lot of talk, interest, enthusiasm about porting on forums or in lawyer offices. But this does not mean that the same number of people can have their cases converted. I think only 25% people will be successful in doing it.

Disclaimer: I am not against porting. It is a legal option available for EB3 and they have every right to use it. A person shall choose the best path suitable to him or her.

[Gclongwait]

I don't want to think it will be in 2013. I hope it happens by fallnext year.

I think if your PD is before Nov 07 you can be quite sure of getting it next year. This bulletin is disappointing but doesn't affect people with these PDs that much since it was always going to be 2012 for you. Its worst for Jan/Feb 08 PDs (like me Feb 1st 08) who were hoping for 2012 but could very well be 2013 and of course people with May/Jun 07 PD's who just missed it.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec, But this is demand,

Projected Visa Allocation(Allow to file I-485 and eligibility for EAD,AP):
Supply 5K is guaranteed. SOFAD does not happen till July( No March, No April, Let us not have false hopes), They'll do only in July.Even in July they need to keep aside some number for unexpected surge of ROW. So in July they'll make it Current for EB2 IC. If they don't have any application in their kitty, they make it Current, that is what they have been doing, that is what they do. They are not doing it for all categories as in 2007, only for extra two(I,C) in EB2. I don't think they'll buy into concept of controlled forward movement.

Actual Visa Allocation*Green Card):
Stop anywhere in 2007

One thing is true, They don't care how it effects us, Their decision is based purely on how they did it in the past.Even with greater visibility of data, there are unknown especially demand of EB2 ROW and EB1, so they go buy history rather than increased visibility.

I followed prediction by Q,Teddy since IV times , 2010 it was spot on, 2011 we bought into the idea of early spill over implies more spillover. Pre-May projection by Teddy was spot on April 2007, that what he said.

needid,

Welcome to the forum.

What happened in the past is no guide to the future, but it is a fair point.

There is a fairly credible report that said that CO has asked USCIS for a breakdown of approved I-140 and will move the dates based on estimated demand from that data.

I have no idea how many pages back it is buried.

There is only one time when the debate will be settled. Either scenario is possible.

[imechanix]

SOFAD does not happen till July( No March, No April, Let us not have false hopes), They'll do only in July.Even in July they need to keep aside some number for unexpected surge of ROW. So in July they'll make it Current for EB2 IC. If they don't have any application in their kitty, they make it Current, that is what they have been doing, that is what they do.

There is one problem. If they wait until July 2012 then 2-3 months is not good enough to adjudicate cases. And there is a risk of wasting visas. The million dollar question is when will CO decide to make BTM so that we get zero visas wasted in FY 2012!

[srimurthy]

Looks like everything has gone up in smoke and the situation is as useless as it was earlier. It would have been a great idea if people are allowed to get a EAD after the 140 approval and wait till the dates are current to get the GC. That way many people from I&C in both EB 2 and 3 would be better off along with the dependents.

[bieber]

Hi, I am new to the blog,
here is my prediction for 2012,
as far as i understand INA and what i think DOS does, what CO will do is advance slowly for the 1st 2 quarters per normal country limit, that may get the demand down to about 5 K, as there will be porting and also some pwmb. in april they will have much more clear idea as to what the appx SOFAD is going to be, thats the earliest they will do some spillover, historically they have not done it before that ever. now it may take till june 2012 till they finish that 5 k.
Now as far as my reading goes DOS gets its demand from NVC as well as USCIS, and USCIS demands a number only after 485 is adjudicated/approved. so only known demand is NVC ( appx 4372 till today) now whenever they decide to open up the gates they have to go by visible demand, ( thus the 2007 fiasco, DOS knew tht there was demand, but no visible demand was there)
i think post 2007 they have improved their act and they communicate well, but there is no indication that uscis knows the exact breakdown of 140 as they do for 485 ( i read somewhere that they are working on it and may be ready by april 2012) also even if they know the number for the 140 extrapolation from there to 485 is a big guess, and whatever they do if uscis gets inendentated with thousands of 485 they will not be able to approve anything before 6 months, so the only way forward in my opinion is to go by NVC demand and give a big BTM and retrogress in oct 2012, i doubt there can be SFM after aug 07, as the demand from USCIS is unknown and it takes 6 months to develop the pipeline
please comment

Welcome to the forum, I think your post makes a lot of sense

[nishant2200]

There is one problem. If they wait until July 2012 then 2-3 months is not good enough to adjudicate cases. And there is a risk of wasting visas. The million dollar question is when will CO decide to make BTM so that we get zero visas wasted in FY 2012!

Even if they do it late, and not enough EB2 I/C get documentarily qualified for visa number, then the numbers can flow down to EB3 ROW, so no wastage. Now there are theories that before doing that, they need to make EB2 Current. I do see language in the Numerical Allocation Process on DOS website which may be behind this reasoning, but is it really Law, are they bound to it. I need to be educated on that.

[neospeed]

Even if they do it late, and not enough EB2 I/C get documentarily qualified for visa number, then the numbers can flow down to EB3 ROW, so no wastage. Now there are theories that before doing that, they need to make EB2 Current. I do see language in the Numerical Allocation Process on DOS website which may be behind this reasoning, but is it really Law, are they bound to it. I need to be educated on that.

wow nice to see nishanth back into action after some break .

[nishant2200]

btw, we broke the 387 concurrent users record yesterday.

"Most users ever online was 424, Yesterday at 01:08 PM."

[nishant2200]

wow nice to see nishanth back into action after some break .

neospeed. Thanks for the welcome. You are the internet search zen-master. Your skills have not gone un-noticed sensei

[vedu]

Guys,

I was looking at the trackitt I-485 inventory and noticed that some cases show nationality as "India" and Country of Chargeability as some other country. What does this mean? Is it possible that these cases are counted towards ROW?

Another related thing I noticed is that there are approximately 200 cases on trackitt with Indian nationality and with priority dates ranging from March 2011 to August, 2007. Most of these cases are already greened because the country of chargeability is different. So, the question is do we need to reduce our PERM (India) inventory accordingly. We obtained the existing PERM India numbers by filtering on the "Nationality", and not necessarily on the "Country of chargeability".

[nishant2200]

Some lessons learnt, just self talking here.

1. CO really meant it when he said that when dates reach August 15th 2007, he will look into 140 statistics obtained from USCIS with regards to deciding how much to move forward. No indication obtained about timing for this, with regards to doing it on time, to utilize the SO for EB2 I/C as much as possible. This also kind of reduces merit to the hope that they would make EB2 Current at this tipping point. I hope good sense prevails and he realizes need to do some movement early on to make pipeline.
2. The VO seems to be a fair processor in my opinion. When they saw 12k could officially be given from EB1 early on in the FY, they did so with a proper announcement. When they saw later that they need to throttle back because more EB1, EB2 ROW are being qualified, they did so. I personally don't think there is any hidden agenda, or anything personal, against any particular category, group or country.
3. CO will not shy away from doing early SO next FY too, if EB1 continues to be tormented by Kazarian. However, he does monitor progress closely each month, on a VB by VB basis.
4. NVC fee notices are no guarantee that the dates will move so shortly. You have to pay fees within a year, or your case is considered abandoned. Once you pay fees, they are valid forever.
5. Trackitt trend is surprisingly quite reliable.

[bieber]

Guys,

I was looking at the trackitt I-485 inventory and noticed that some cases show nationality as "India" and Country of Chargeability as some other country. What does this mean? Is it possible that these cases are counted towards ROW?

Another related thing I noticed is that there are approximately 200 cases on trackitt with Indian nationality and with priority dates ranging from March 2011 to August, 2007. Most of these cases are already greened because the country of chargeability is different. So, the question is do we need to reduce our PERM (India) inventory accordingly. We obtained the existing PERM India numbers by filtering on the "Nationality", and not necessarily on the "Country of chargeability".

If spouce is from a different country (other than India, China), applicant can use her nationality as country of chargeability and use ROW visa