EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[bieber]

Q

sorry to hear that, I took a beating with oil.

[skpanda]

Quick Q - Does the demand data numbers include family members as well? or only the primary applicants?

[grnwtg]

soggadu I know exactly why you have dim hopes on the linkage between bad economy and SOFAD. But what I have quoted is real. Indeed USCIS scraped through the entire supply chain of GC applications for EB1 and EB2ROW. So the only way EB1 and EB2ROW can hurt is by increases new receipts. And how is that going to happen in this kind of economic environment?

Stay put!! Good things will happen to you.

Thread is going like Super Fast xpress, unable to follow the posts ...but i guess its good if everyone is having more discussions.
Already I am 10% down in market ( hopefully this will make very less eb1 applicants in coming days and more SPILL OVER .....)

[qesehmk]

Yes ... it includes ALL "documentarily qualified" cases including AOS and CP.

Quick Q - Does the demand data numbers include family members as well? or only the primary applicants?

[nishant2200]

This shows how much our fab 4 thread is famous...kudos guys ...

'There are currently 204 users browsing this thread. (34 members and 170 guests)'

We were at 387 when the last VB was released, at that morning.

[iamdeb]

Yes ... it includes ALL "documentarily qualified" cases including AOS and CP.

Q any idea how many of the SOFAD has been already used and approx how many is remaining for the Sep bulletin?

Thanks,

Deb

[mesan123]

then may be the number will be high tommorow hope the server doesnt go down tommrow, like it happened 1 hr before..

waiting for tommorow's bulletin and also guru's responses after that....

We were at 387 when the last VB was released, at that morning.

[qesehmk]

pls refer to the post #1. Also refer to about 10 pages back. There was extensive discussion about it.

Q any idea how many of the SOFAD has been already used and approx how many is remaining for the Sep bulletin?

Thanks,

Deb

[vchirakala]

Good luck to everyone waiting for Sep Bulletin ..hope it comes out tomorrow.

pls refer to the post #1. Also refer to about 10 pages back. There was extensive discussion about it.

[nishant2200]

Curtains for today. It's 5 EST.

[jackbrown_890]

will be checking Mumbai US Consulate website after 11.30 EST time to see if there is any update. in the past, couple of times they have posted VB before DoS.
Link to Mumbai Consulate CoD page: http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

[pg_at_q]

There's no smoke without fire guys....As optimistic as I'd like to be...I've read at least at 3 different places that there's not going to be any substantial movement in Sept VB..(I am talking about EB2 here)...

1. Immigration-law firm website (which has just hinted though I admit)
2. Someone posted on that blog http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com saying that it'll actually retrogress a bit instead of advancing.
3. ImmigrationVoice.org website...One of the admin posted "his" analysis, which I suspect is insider news.

So all in all...my hopes of it advancing by a few months is dimmed...instead it might as well advance in weeks rather.

THe only silver lining I am expecting is something from DoS acknowledging that they have to build a pipeline now in expectation of next year SOFAD, and their plans for the same....

[soggadu]

I can see only smoke... clouding our expectations... fire will be on once the VB releases.... either way....

[nishant2200]

1. law firm's website's piece of info was a general generic disclaimer. Which CO himself puts in many bulletins. (in fact it was incorrect, they said, historically in september, dates have not moved or retro, or moved very very less, on those lines, and I put a post some pages back, showing that since last three years, movement has been at least two months or more, with no retro in following october)
2. That someone was just a anonymous user, not CM himself. CM indicates 15th June 2007, as well as his source indicates small movement, and SFM until July in new FY, with stall until May 2012, and then bigger movements, no retro.
3. the admin you mention puts in veiled hints to generate interest in people to join the cause, become donors, and participate in advocacy.

No one predicted the huge movement to March 2007 from 2006 either. So when that happened, no one blamed saying hey you guys saying less movement.

If what they say about retro etc, comes true, we will award them laurels, but if that turns out to be false, in the joy of the moment, we forget the incorrect statements.

You did nothing wrong by sharing your opinion and thoughts, keep them coming I am just putting my thoughts here, and suggesting to friends here, don't panic by such news, or disheartened.

There's no smoke without fire guys....As optimistic as I'd like to be...I've read at least at 3 different places that there's not going to be any substantial movement in Sept VB..(I am talking about EB2 here)...

1. Immigration-law firm website (which has just hinted though I admit)
2. Someone posted on that blog http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com saying that it'll actually retrogress a bit instead of advancing.
3. ImmigrationVoice.org website...One of the admin posted "his" analysis, which I suspect is insider news.

So all in all...my hopes of it advancing by a few months is dimmed...instead it might as well advance in weeks rather.

THe only silver lining I am expecting is something from DoS acknowledging that they have to build a pipeline now in expectation of next year SOFAD, and their plans for the same....

[samudrala]

I think the dates will move to Jun 15th because a similar demand (8000) was in 2008, and the dates moved from from June 1st 2006 to August 1st 2006 in Sept. Visa bulletin. I have not made any calculations, but my guess mate is June 15th 2007.

I would be very happy, If I am wrong and moves forward than 15th June.

Good Luck everyone and I hope you all are green soon.

[shaumack]

There's no smoke without fire guys....As optimistic as I'd like to be...I've read at least at 3 different places that there's not going to be any substantial movement in Sept VB..(I am talking about EB2 here)...

1. Immigration-law firm website (which has just hinted though I admit)
2. Someone posted on that blog http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com saying that it'll actually retrogress a bit instead of advancing.
3. ImmigrationVoice.org website...One of the admin posted "his" analysis, which I suspect is insider news.

So all in all...my hopes of it advancing by a few months is dimmed...instead it might as well advance in weeks rather.

THe only silver lining I am expecting is something from DoS acknowledging that they have to build a pipeline now in expectation of next year SOFAD, and their plans for the same....

Whenever we hovered like hungry dogs in the dust outside the castle for a meat, we are always given loaf of bread. So just relax and be patient, and next bulletin would be the "Feast of Hungry Ghosts".

[qesehmk]

Yes I agree. I guess its ok for people to project whatever projections as long as they don't inflate or pad them for fear or favor. I would hate it if somebody were projecting short just to play safe and tehn if dates overshot .. who remembers the short projection right?

My personal philosophy is try to have a datapoint behind anything you say or do. Because that helps us stay clear of our own emotions and gives more clarity than anything else.

Your advice about not panicking is good. That's what it is. No point in people getting panicky based on any predictions that are not solidly rooted in facts.

....
No one predicted the huge movement to March 2007 from 2006 either. So when that happened, no one blamed saying hey you guys saying less movement.

If what they say about retro etc, comes true, we will award them laurels, but if that turns out to be false, in the joy of the moment, we forget the incorrect statements.

You did nothing wrong by sharing your opinion and thoughts, keep them coming I am just putting my thoughts here, and suggesting to friends here, don't panic by such news, or disheartened.

[mesan123]

Well said Q & Nishant..

Yes I agree. I guess its ok for people to project whatever projections as long as they don't inflate or pad them for fear or favor. I would hate it if somebody were projecting short just to play safe and tehn if dates overshot .. who remembers the short projection right?

My personal philosophy is try to have a datapoint behind anything you say or do. Because that helps us stay clear of our own emotions and gives more clarity than anything else.

Your advice about not panicking is good. That's what it is. No point in people getting panicky based on any predictions that are not solidly rooted in facts.

[nishant2200]

Great point Q. Back it up with datapoint. And whatever you claim based on those data facts, if it comes untrue, or whatever deviation happens, the lesson to learn is, go back and re-calibrate, and see what you missed, so that next time, we come up with more solid prediction, based on better datapoint.

Iterative learning, that's the lifecycle of any prediction model, in any engineering or life science.

[qesehmk]

Yep!!!! Exactly. It could still turn bad. But then you go back to drawing table and recalibrate and learn.

Great point Q. Back it up with datapoint. And whatever you claim based on those data facts, if it comes untrue, the lesson to learn is, go back and re-calibrate, and see what you missed, so that next time, we come up with more solid prediction, based on better datapoint.

Iterative learning, that's the lifecycle of any prediction model, in any engineering or life science.

[pg_at_q]

Am not predicting anything here guys...the way it works atleast for me...it's a better feeling if I get AAA when the expectation is B, rather then getting a C when the expectation is AAA....Believe me..I'd be the happiest if the prediction as it's laid out on the first post of this thread turns out to be true ... I am a July 07 PD so it'll benefit me huge if the dates surpasses this range...

Since there's so many factors here, it's hard to predict the exact movement. Priorities change all the time...atleast in DoS/USCIS offices...sometimes they want to clear EB2-ROW/EB1 before they move EB2 I/C, some other times they feel EB2 I/C will get a huge spillover thus raising our anxiety unnecessarily...sometimes they think there's huge porting, some other times they believe it's been minimal...it's been such a roller-coaster ride...at least in this age of computing, USCIS should clean its house and start publishing accurate demand data as well as supply data too...damn it, it's the single agency which takes in all these applications, and is entirely funded by application fees...it should at least commit to delivering quality service.

[leo07]

pg_at_q, I respect your opinions. There is nothing to be defensive here. You stated your point and Nishanth & Q did theirs quite impressively.

Some of these websites ( excluding CM), have their own agenda, when someone with a hidden agenda says/posts even something useful, the general tendency is to take it with a grain of salt. Like Nishanth mentioned, these websites usually play it safe for donations or whatever it might be they'd have to lose, on the flip side for a incorrect prediction.

You don't have to fear that here

Good Luck!

Am not predicting anything here guys...the way it works atleast for me...it's a better feeling if I get AAA when the expectation is B, rather then getting a C when the expectation is AAA....Believe me..I'd be the happiest if the prediction as it's laid out on the first post of this thread turns out to be true ... I am a July 07 PD so it'll benefit me huge if the dates surpasses this range...

Since there's so many factors here, it's hard to predict the exact movement. Priorities change all the time...atleast in DoS/USCIS offices...sometimes they want to clear EB2-ROW/EB1 before they move EB2 I/C, some other times they feel EB2 I/C will get a huge spillover thus raising our anxiety unnecessarily...sometimes they think there's huge porting, some other times they believe it's been minimal...it's been such a roller-coaster ride...at least in this age of computing, USCIS should clean its house and start publishing accurate demand data as well as supply data too...damn it, it's the single agency which takes in all these applications, and is entirely funded by application fees...it should at least commit to delivering quality service.

[pg_at_q]

cool man...we are all in this together...not getting defensive...juz some frustration..chill

[leo07]

Agree completely. Keeping fingers crossed. CO would have decided by now... and must be watching tamasha on these forums

cool man...we are all in this together...not getting defensive...juz some frustration..chill

[belmontboy]

Nope, only Hillary knows